Backward bifurcation and global dynamics of an SIS epidemic model with general incidence rate and treatment

An SIS epidemic model with treatment is proposed. The incidence rate of the model, which can include the bilinear incidence rate and the standard incidence rate, is a general nonlinear incidence rate. The global dynamics of the model are studied and then we can understand the effect of the capacity for treatment. It is found that a backward bifurcation occurs and there exist bistable endemic equilibria if the capacity is low. Mathematical results suggest that decreasing the basic reproduction number is insufficient for disease eradication and improving the efficiency and capacity of treatment is important for this end.     

Backward bifurcation of an epidemic model with saturated treatment function

An epidemic model with saturated incidence rate and saturated treatment function is studied. Here the treatment function adopts a continuous and differentiable function which can describe the effect of delayed treatment when the number of infected individuals is getting larger and the medical condition is limited. The global dynamics of the model indicate that the basic reproduction number being the unity is a strict threshold for disease eradication when such effect is weak. However, it is shown that a backward bifurcation will take place when this delayed effect for treatment is strong. Therefore, driving the basic reproduction number below the unity is not enough to eradicate the disease. And a critical value at the turning point is deduced as a new threshold. Some sufficient conditions for the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium being globally asymptotically stable are also obtained. Mathematical results in this paper suggest that giving the patients timely treatment, improving the cure efficiency and decreasing the infective coefficient are all valid methods for the control of disease.     

Bifurcation analysis of an SIRS epidemic model with standard incidence rate and saturated treatment function

An epidemic model with standard incidence rate and saturated treatment function of infectious individuals is proposed to understand the effect of the capacity for treatment of infective individuals on the disease spread. The treatment function in this paper is a continuous and differential function which exhibits the effect of delayed treatment when the rate of treatment is lower and the number of infected individuals is getting larger. It is proved that the existence and stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria for the model are not only related to the basic reproduction number but also to the capacity for treatment of infective individuals. And a backward bifurcation is found when the capacity is not enough. By computing the first Lyapunov coefficient, we can determine the type of Hopf bifurcation, i.e., subcritical Hopf bifurcation or supercritical Hopf bifurcation. We also show that under some conditions the model undergoes Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation. Finally, numerical simulations are given to support some of the theoretical results.     

Zero-Hopf bifurcation for an infection-age structured epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate

An infection-age structured epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate is investigated.We formulate the model as an abstract non-densely defined Cauchy problem and derive the condition which guarantees the existence and uniqueness for positive age-dependent equilibrium of the model.By analyzing the associated characteristic transcendental equation and applying the normal form theory presented recently for non-densely defined semilinear equations,we show that the SIR(susceptible-infected-recovered)epidemic model undergoes Zero-Hopf bifurcation at the positive equilibrium which is the main result of this paper.     

Backward bifurcation in a stage-structured epidemic model

A stage-structured epidemic model is proposed under the assumptions that the disease can only be transmitted among adults and that there is also intraspecific competition among them. We study the existence of equilibria and also obtain their local stability, which implies the occurrence of backward bifurcation. Moreover, sufficient conditions on the global stability of some equilibria are provided.     

Stability and bifurcation of an SIS epidemic model with treatment

An SIS epidemic model with a limited resource for treatment is introduced and analyzed. It is assumed that treatment rate is proportional to the number of infectives below the capacity and is a constant when the number of infectives is greater than the capacity. It is found that a backward bifurcation occurs if the capacity is small. It is also found that there exist bistable endemic equilibria if the capacity is low.     

Global attractivity of a discrete SIRS epidemic model with standard incidence rate

In this paper, a discrete Susceptible‐Infected‐Recovered‐Susceptible (SIRS) epidemic model with standard incidence rate is studied. By means of the iteration technique and the comparison principle of difference equations, the sufficient conditions are obtained for the global attractivity of the endemic equilibrium when the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. Two examples are given to illustrate the main theoretical results. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stability and Hopf bifurcation of a delayed epidemic model with stage structure and nonlinear incidence rate

In this paper, a stage‐structured SI epidemic model with time delay and nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of an endemic equilibrium and a disease‐free equilibrium, and the existence of Hopf bifurcations are established. By comparison arguments, it is proved that if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, the disease‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. If the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, by means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

带有非线性传染率的传染病模型

对一类带有非线性传染率的SEIS传染病模型,找到了其基本再生数.借助动力系统极限理论,得到当基本再生数小于1时,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的,且疾病最终灭绝.当基本再生数大于1时,无病平衡点是不稳定的,而唯一的地方病平衡点是局部渐近稳定的.应用Fonda定理,得到当基本再生数大于1时疾病一致持续存在.     

Dynamical behavior of an epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate

In this paper, we study the global dynamics of an epidemic model with vital dynamics and nonlinear incidence rate of saturated mass action. By carrying out global qualitative and bifurcation analyses, it is shown that either the number of infective individuals tends to zero as time evolves or there is a region such that the disease will be persistent if the initial position lies in the region and the disease will disappear if the initial position lies outside this region. When such a region exists, it is shown that the model undergoes a Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation, i.e., it exhibits a saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcations, and a homoclinic bifurcation. Existence of none, one or two limit cycles is also discussed.     

Globalexponential stability of an epidemic model with saturated and periodic incidence rate

This paper is concerned with a SIR model with saturated and periodic incidence rate and saturated treatment function. By using differential inequality technique, we employ a novel argument to show that the disease‐free equilibrium is globally exponentially stable. The obtained results improve and supplement existing ones. We also use numerical simulations to demonstrate our theoretical results. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of stability and bifurcation for an SEIR epidemic model with saturated recovery rate

In this paper we study an SEIR epidemic model with saturated recovery rate. A backward bifurcation leading to bistability possibly occurs, and global dynamics are shown by compound matrices and geometric approaches. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results.     

一类具有标准发生率和双垂直传播的媒介传染病模型分析

建立了一类具有标准发生率和双垂直传播的媒介传染病模型,通过构造Lyapunov函数,利用LaSalle不变集原理等理论,证明了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的存在性和稳定性,并对其进行数值模拟.得出通过采取降低人群与媒介之间接触率或者提高医疗水平等措施,能够控制疾病的蔓延.     

Dynamics of an impulsive stochastic SIR epidemic model with saturated incidence rate

In this paper, the dynamics of an impulsive stochastic SIR epidemic model with saturated incidence rate are analyzed. The existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution is proved by constructing the equivalent system without pulses. The threshold which determines the extinction and persistence of the disease is obtained. The global attraction of disease-free periodic solution is addressed. Sufficient condition for the existence of a positive periodic solution is established. These results are supported by computer simulations.     

Bifurcations analysis and tracking control of an epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate

In this paper, a discrete epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate obtained by the forward Euler method is investigated. The conditions for existence of codimension-1 bifurcations (fold bifurcation, flip bifurcation and Neimark-Sacker bifurcation) are derived by using the center manifold theorem and bifurcation theory. Furthermore, the condition for the occurrence of codimension-2 bifurcation (fold-flip bifurcation) is presented. In order to eliminate the chaos or Neimark-Sacker bifurcation of the discrete epidemic model, a tracking controller is designed. The number of the infectives tends to zero when the number of iterations is gradually increasing, that is, the disease disappears gradually. Finally, numerical simulations not only illustrate the validity of the proposed results, but also display the interesting and complex dynamical behaviors.     

Stability and bifurcation of an SIVS epidemic model with treatment and age of vaccination

In this paper, we consider a two-dimensional SIS model with vaccination. It is assumed that vaccinated individuals become susceptible again when vaccine loses its protective properties with time. Here the rate at which vaccinated individual move to susceptible class again, depends upon vaccine age and hence it is assumed to be a variable. This SIVS model with treatment exhibits backward bifurcation under certain conditions on treatment which complicate the criteria for the success of the treatment by making it possible to have stable endemic states. We also show how the infectivity and the recovery function affect the existence of backward bifurcation.     

Bifurcations of an epidemic model with non-monotonic incidence rate of saturated mass action

In this paper, we study the bifurcations of an epidemic model with non-monotonic incidence rate of saturated mass action, which describes the psychological effects of the community on certain serious diseases when the number of infective is getting larger. By carrying out the bifurcation analysis of the model, we show that there exist some values of the model parameters such that numerous kinds of bifurcation occur for the model, such as Hopf bifurcation, Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation.     

On the dynamics of an SEIR epidemic model with a convex incidence rate

An SEIR epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate is studied. The incidence is assumed to be a convex function with respect to the infective class of a host population. A bifurcation analysis is performed and conditions ensuring that the system exhibits backward bifurcation are provided. The global dynamics is also studied, through a geometric approach to stability. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results obtained analytically. This research is discussed in the framework of the recent literature on the subject.      

Analysis of an SVEIS epidemic model with partial temporary immunity and saturation incidence rate

In this paper, an SVEIS epidemic model for an infectious disease that spreads in the host population through horizontal transmission is investigated. The role that temporary immunity (natural, disease induced, vaccination induced) plays in the spread of disease, is incorporated in the model. The total host population is bounded and the incidence term is of the Holling-type II form. It is shown that the model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The global dynamics are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R₀. If R₀<1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable which leads to the eradication of disease from population. If R₀>1, a unique endemic equilibrium exists and is globally stable in the feasible region under certain conditions. Further, the transcritical bifurcation at R₀=1 is explored by projecting the flow onto the extended center manifold. We use the geometric approach for ordinary differential equations which is based on the use of higher-order generalization of Bendixson’s criterion. Further, we obtain the threshold vaccination coverage required to eradicate the disease. Finally, taking biologically relevant parametric values, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate and verify the analytical results.