Triangular fuzzy decision-theoretic rough sets

Based on decision-theoretic rough sets (DTRS), we augment the existing model by introducing into the granular values. More specifically, we generalize a concept of the precise value of loss function to triangular fuzzy decision-theoretic rough sets (TFDTRS). Firstly, ranking the expected loss with triangular fuzzy number is analyzed. In light of Bayesian decision procedure, we calculate three thresholds and derive decision rules. The relationship between the values of the thresholds and the risk attitude index of decision maker presented in the ranking function is analyzed. With the aid of multiple attribute group decision making, we design an algorithm to determine the values of losses used in TFDTRS. It is achieved with the use of particle swarm optimization. Our study provides a solution in the aspect of determining the value of loss function of DTRS and extends its range of applications. Finally, an example is presented to elaborate on the performance of the TFDTRS model.     

Solving Stochastic Programming Problems with Risk Measures by Progressive Hedging

The progressive hedging algorithm for stochastic programming problems in single or multiple stages is a decomposition method which, in each iteration, solves a separate subproblem with modified costs for each scenario. The decomposition exploits the separability of objective functions formulated in terms of expected costs, but nowadays expected costs are not the only objectives of interest. Minimization of risk measures for cost, such as conditional value-at-risk, can be important as well, but their lack of separability presents a hurdle. Here it is shown how the progressive hedging algorithm can nonetheless be applied to solve many such problems through the introduction of additional variables which, like the given decision variables, get updated through aggregation of the independent computations for the various scenarios.     

Progressive hedging and tabu search applied to mixed integer (0,1) multistage stochastic programming

Many problems faced by decision makers are characterized by a multistage decision process with uncertainty about the future and some decisions constrained to take on values of either zero or one (for example, either open a facility at a location or do not open it). Although some mathematical theory exists concerning such problems, no general-purpose algorithms have been available to address them. In this article, we introduce the first implementation of general purpose methods for finding good solutions to multistage, stochastic mixed-integer (0, 1) programming problems. The solution method makes use of Rockafellar and Wets' progressive hedging algorithm that averages solutions rather than data. Solutions to the induced quadratic (0,1) mixed-integer subproblems are obtained using a tabu search algorithm. We introduce the notion of integer convergence for progressive hedging. Computational experiments verify that the method is effective. The software that we have developed reads standard (SMPS) data files.     

区域发展战略规划群体决策支持系统(Ⅱ)

本文介绍了一个用于区域发展战略规划设计与管理控制支持的群体决策支持系统中的群体决策支持模型部分，内容包括群体支持模型的功能、结构及其相应算法。     

Multiobjective linear programming with context-dependent preferences

Multiobjective linear programming algorithms are typically based on value maximization. However, there is a growing body of experimental evidence showing that decision maker behavior is inconsistent with value maximization. Tversky and Simonson provide an alternative model for problems with a discrete set of choices. Their model, called the componential context model, has been shown to capture observed decision maker behavior. In this paper, an interactive multiobjective linear programming algorithm is developed which follows the rationale of Tversky and Simonson. The algorithm is illustrated with an example solved using standard linear programming software. Finally, an interactive decision support system based on this algorithm is developed to field test the usefulness of the algorithm. Results show that this algorithm compares favorably with an established algorithm in the field.     

An interactive algorithm to find the most preferred solution of multi-objective integer programs

In this paper, we develop an interactive algorithm that finds the most preferred solution of a decision maker (DM) for multi-objective integer programming problems. We assume that the DM’s preferences are consistent with a quasiconcave value function unknown to us. Based on the properties of quasiconcave value functions and pairwise preference information obtained from the DM, we generate constraints to restrict the implied inferior regions. The algorithm continues iteratively and guarantees to find the most preferred solution for integer programs. We test the performance of the algorithm on multi-objective assignment, knapsack, and shortest path problems and show that it works well.     

不同风险偏好下虚拟企业风险规划研究

针对虚拟企业风险规划问题,在分析其各种风险具有随机性的特点的基础上,运用随机规划理论,分别建立风险规划的期望值模型和机会约束规划模型来描述决策者在不同风险偏好下的决策行为。针对所建立的模型,分别设计了基于蒙特卡罗模拟的粒子群优化算法、遗传算法和蚁群算法对其进行求解。仿真分析表明期望值模型较好地描述了风险中性决策者的决策行为,机会约束规划模型随着其偏好系数取值的不同描述了不同风险偏好(风险厌恶、风险中性、风险爱好)决策者的决策行为。通过对三种算法仿真结果的比较分析,表明基于蒙特卡罗模拟的粒子群优化算法在寻优能力、稳定性和收敛速度等方面优于其余两种算法,是解决此类风险规划问题的有效手段。     

Enhanced interactive satisficing method via alternative tolerance for fuzzy goal programming with progressive preference

This paper proposes an enhanced interactive satisficing method via alternative tolerance for fuzzy goal programming with progressive preference. The alternative tolerances of the fuzzy objectives with three types of fuzzy relations are used to model progressive preference of decision maker. In order to improve the dissatisficing objectives, the relaxed satisficing objectives are sacrificed by modifying their tolerant limits. By means of attainable reference point, the auxiliary programming is designed to generate the tolerances of the dissatisficing objectives for ensuring feasibility. Correspondingly, the membership functions are updated or the objective constraints are added. The Max–Min goal programming model (or the revised one) and the test model of the M-Pareto optimality are solved lexicographically. By our method, the dissatisficing objectives are improved iteratively till the preferred result is acquired. Illustrative examples show its power.     

基于决策者风险偏好大数据分析的大群体应急决策方法

针对重大突发事件应急决策大群体成员的风险偏好复杂难测问题,提出了一种新的基于决策者风险偏好大数据分析的大群体应急决策方法。首先专家群体对突发事件进行快速响应,生成若干应急预案及其风险属性信息;其次,社会公众通过网络等渠道参与到应急决策中来并形成决策大群体,给出不同预案的偏好值;然后,利用证据推理算法得出公众对各预案的风险效用值,将预案风险效用值与预案偏好值加权组合,得到各个预案的大群体决策者的风险偏好值;最后,基于风险偏好值,利用大数据分析技术对大群体的风险偏好进行聚类识别,从中筛选出风险中立者组成新的应急决策群体,再次聚类得出应急决策群体的成员组成结构,以此为基础计算决策者权重和应急预案的最终效用值,得应急预案排序结果。最后通过算例分析验证了方法的有效性和可行性。     

Learning multicriteria classification models from examples: Decision rules in continuous space

The classification problem statement of multicriteria decision analysis is to model the classification of the alternatives/actions according to the decision maker's preferences. These models are based on outranking relations, utility functions or (linear) discriminant functions. Model parameters can be given explicitly or learnt from a preclassified set of alternatives/actions.In this paper we propose a novel approach, the Continuous Decision (CD) method, to learn parameters of a discriminant function, and we also introduce its extension, the Continuous Decision Tree (CDT) method, which describes the classification more accurately.The proposed methods are results of integration of Machine Learning methods in Decision Analysis. From a Machine Learning point of view, the CDT method can be considered as an extension of the C4.5 decision tree building algorithm that handles only numeric criteria but applies more complex tests in the inner nodes of the tree. For the sake of easier interpretation, the decision trees are transformed to rules.     

多阶段群体满意决策最优算法

针对多阶段群体满意决策问题,应用图论知识提出一种求解多阶段群体满意策略问题的最优算法.定义权ω为决策者对决策的总评价值,给出距离d和群体满意策略等概念.考虑实际情况中决策者的能力和认知的不同,赋予决策者变化的决策权重.将多阶段群体满意策略问题转换成在一个带有权向量的多部有向图中找权最大的路的问题.最后给出计算实例.     

A data envelopment approach to decision analysis

A decision aid to assist the development of a linear valuation function for multiple attribute problems is proposed, based on a linear programming formulation using a constraint set structured in a similar manner to data envelopment analysis (DEA). Value functions which favour each decision option are calculated, and efficient, potentially optimal, options identified. These are used to help a decision maker progressively to articulate preferences, indicators of his/her values, in an interactive, structurally flexible manner. As preference indications are provided, candidate value functions and hitherto efficient options inconsistent with his/her declarations are eliminated, thus proceeding towards an explicit value function and, if needed a corresponding complete option order.     

Optimal stopping time on discounted semi-Markov processes

This paper attempts to study the optimal stopping time for semi- Markov processes (SMPs) under the discount optimization criteria with unbounded cost rates. In our work, we introduce an explicit construction of the equivalent semi-Markov decision processes (SMDPs). The equivalence is embodied in the expected discounted cost functions of SMPs and SMDPs, that is, every stopping time of SMPs can induce a policy of SMDPs such that the value functions are equal, and vice versa. The existence of the optimal stopping time of SMPs is proved by this equivalence relation. Next, we give the optimality equation of the value function and develop an effective iterative algorithm for computing it. Moreover, we show that the optimal and ε-optimal stopping time can be characterized by the hitting time of the special sets. Finally, to illustrate the validity of our results, an example of a maintenance system is presented in the end.     

多属性群决策算法及一致性分析研究

在多属性群决策中 ,集结群体意见之前必须先对群体的决策数据进行一致性分析 ,以确保群体作出的决策符合客观实际 .提出了群决策的三种三维层次模型 ;用欧几里得距离 ( Euclidean Distance)表示个人决策中方案的评价值 ;然后设置一致性指标值α,作为群体数据一致性的判断依据 ;提出了满足一致性基础上的一种群决策方法 ;最后用实例说明了算法的使用步骤 .     

Optimal risk probability for first passage models in semi-Markov decision processes

This paper studies the risk minimization problem in semi-Markov decision processes with denumerable states. The criterion to be optimized is the risk probability (or risk function) that a first passage time to some target set doesn't exceed a threshold value. We first characterize such risk functions and the corresponding optimal value function, and prove that the optimal value function satisfies the optimality equation by using a successive approximation technique. Then, we present some properties of optimal policies, and further give conditions for the existence of optimal policies. In addition, a value iteration algorithm and a policy improvement method for obtaining respectively the optimal value function and optimal policies are developed. Finally, two examples are given to illustrate the value iteration procedure and essential characterization of the risk function.     

基于粗糙集的模糊决策算法

给出一种从连续决策表中提取模糊决策规则的规则提取算法。首先,转化连续属性值为模糊值;然后,给出两个不同对象的模糊属性值关于相应连续属性的相似度;其次,给出了λ相似关系与λ相似类的定义。根据λ相似关系,给出粗糙-模糊空间中的下近似与上近似概念;最后,结合模糊集与粗糙集理论的思想,给出一种从连续值域决策表获取决策规则的算法,并通过实例说明该算法的有效性。     

基于语言值2元组的多属性决策方法

利用2元组方法建立了一个语言值决策模型和LOW A算子模型,这两个模型具有可操作性强和语义明确等优点,特别是充分利用了语言值所含的信息,提高了决策结果的精度.最后,利用这两个模型给出了基于语言值的多属性群决策方法,同时给出一个应用实例.     

项目网络中考虑支配与扩散关系的组合决策

单纯侧重项目自身属性而不考虑项目关联性以及由项目衍生而来的技术、经验/信息扩散对项目组合决策时的影响,易导致决策偏差,低估具有潜在技术先导性项目的价值。对此,引用复杂网络理论,以项目关联性的视角,将项目间支配和扩散关系分别抽象为有向加权网络,运用K-shell分解方法构建项目组合网络中基于支配关系的项目影响力模型以及技术、经验/信息在项目间扩散传播的模型。然后,基于PageRank算法,综合考虑项目间支配与扩散关系,建立了项目优先级排序决策模型。最后,通过算例分析说明了该模型与算法的可行性与有效性,为企业项目组合决策提供了有益的参考。     

Expert Rule Versus Majority Rule Under Partial Information, II

The main purpose of this paper is clarifying the connection between some characteristics of a deciding body and the probability of its making correct decisions. In our model a group of decision makers is required to select one of two alternatives. We assume the probabilities of the decision makers being correct are independent random variables distributed according to the same given distribution rule. This distribution belongs to a general family, containing the uniform distribution as a particular case. We investigate the behavior of the probability of the expert rule being optimal, as well as that of the majority rule, both as functions of the distribution parameter and the group size. The main result is that for any value of the distribution parameter the expert rule is far more likely to be optimal than the majority rule, especially as the deciding body becomes larger.