共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 203 毫秒
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本文结合药物开发投资项目的利润流不确定性和专利保护期限的不确定性,运用实物期权法,对药物开发项目进行分析,由或有债权分析方法推导出项目投资阈值,并做出相应典型数值分析. 相似文献
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将实物期权理论引入传统现金流量折现法的应用框架,在不确定性条件下运用实物期权定价法来评估企业价值,提出了简约的Schwartz-Moon(2001)实物期权定价模型,并在此基础上运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法来计算了百度公司的价值. 相似文献
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实物期权的定价在风险投资决策过程中具有重要意义.传统的实物期权定价方法忽略标的资产价值和投资成本的模糊性,从而可能导致错误的投资决策.本文主要研究了具有模糊标的的资产价值和投资成本情形时的实物期权定价模型.文中将这些模糊因素分别视为模糊数和模糊变量,然后运用模糊集合论,结合B-S期权定价理论,对实物期权进行定价,得到了基于模糊集合论的实物期权定价模型. 相似文献
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本文应用期权博弈理论方法分析了存在竞争条件下的不确定性投资决策问题.建立了一个对称双寡头模型,用实物期权方法计算了模型中的领先者、跟随者和同时投资者的价值函数和投资临界点. 相似文献
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房地产开发的最优时间和最优强度 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
房地产投资具有许多不确定性,对房地产投资进行评估尤为重要.利用实物期权理论,对房地产投资进行建模分析,确定出最优开发时间和最优开发强度;最后根据模型推导出来的结论进行数值分析. 相似文献
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基本资产不可交易的实物期权定价方法研究 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
实物期权定价面临的一个主要问题是其基本资产不可交易问题,在这种情况下,通常的解决办法是在市场中寻找一个与该基本资产最为相关的可交易资产,利用可交易资产的价格信息来对特定实物期权进行定价和风险对冲。本应用随机动态规划法,确定实物期权的最优风险对冲策略所满足的偏微分方程。利用无套利原理,同时还可以得到实物期权的近似市场定价。 相似文献
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In this survey paper, we present advances achieved during the last years in the development and use of OR, in particular, optimization methods in the new gene-environment and eco-finance networks, based on usually finite data series, with an emphasis on uncertainty in them and in the interactions of the model items. Indeed, our networks represent models in the form of time-continuous and time-discrete dynamics, whose unknown parameters we estimate under constraints on complexity and regularization by various kinds of optimization techniques, ranging from linear, mixed-integer, spline, semi-infinite and robust optimization to conic, e.g., semi-definite programming. We present different kinds of uncertainties and a new time-discretization technique, address aspects of data preprocessing and of stability, related aspects from game theory and financial mathematics, we work out structural frontiers and discuss chances for future research and OR application in our real world. 相似文献
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Using extended Monte Carlo simulation method for the improvement of risk management: Consideration of relationships between uncertainties 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
K. Rezaie M.S. Amalnik A. Gereie B. Ostadi M. Shakhseniaee 《Applied mathematics and computation》2007,190(2):1492-1501
This paper considers the relationship of the major uncertainties of a project by using proposed approach. This approach by using rotary algorithm intellectualized the classic Monte Carlo simulation. This will help utility function to come closer to reality so that decision making and risk analysis would be done based on the real and possible modes, providing better conditions for decision making. Analyzing and investigating uncertainties are done in the risk management frame work. Because opportunities and threats are not separated, Monte Carlo simulation analysis is implemented as an integrated tool to reach the project goals, analyzing and investigating a variety of uncertainty permutations simultaneously. This method is a powerful tool for investigating the effects of all uncertainties’ occurrence, so it has noticeable benefits such as simultaneous consideration of uncertainties and the capability of representing several dimensions of utility function. In spite of these benefits, not considering the type and level of relationships, some permutations of uncertainties will occur that are not possible in real world. This would divert the utility function from reality. A simple example is used to illustrate the application of the model in practice. 相似文献
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John Quigley Lesley Walls Güven Demirel Bart L. MacCarthy Mahdi Parsa 《European Journal of Operational Research》2018,264(3):932-947
We consider supplier development decisions for prime manufacturers with extensive supply bases producing complex, highly engineered products. We propose a novel modelling approach to support supply chain managers decide the optimal level of investment to improve quality performance under uncertainty. We develop a Poisson–Gamma model within a Bayesian framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in non-conformance rates. Estimates are obtained to value a supplier quality improvement activity and assess if it is worth gaining more information to reduce epistemic uncertainty. The theoretical properties of our model provide new insights about the relationship between the degree of epistemic uncertainty, the effectiveness of development programmes, and the levels of investment. We find that the optimal level of investment does not have a monotonic relationship with the rate of effectiveness. If investment is deferred until epistemic uncertainty is removed then the expected optimal investment monotonically decreases as prior variance increases but only if the prior mean is above a critical threshold. We develop methods to facilitate practical application of the model to industrial decisions by a) enabling use of the model with typical data available to major companies and b) developing computationally efficient approximations that can be implemented easily. Application to a real industry context illustrates the use of the model to support practical planning decisions to learn more about supplier quality and to invest in improving supplier capability. 相似文献
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After deregulation of the Power sector, uncertainty has increased considerably. Vertically integrated utilities were unbundled into independent generation, transmission and distribution companies. Transmission network expansion planning (TNEP) is now performed independent from generation planning. In this environment TNEP must include uncertainties of the generation sector as well as its own. Uncertainty in generation costs affecting optimal dispatch and uncertainty in demand loads are captured through composite scenarios. Probabilities are assigned to different scenarios. The effects of these uncertainties are transferred to the objective function in terms of total costs, which include: generation (dispatch), transmission expansion and load curtailment costs. Two formulations are presented: stochastic and minimum regret. The stochastic formulation seeks a design with minimum expected cost. The minimum regret formulation seeks a design with robust performance in terms of variance of the operational costs. Results for a test problem and a potential application to a real system are presented. 相似文献
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《Operations Research Letters》2021,49(4):553-558
Commodity and energy production assets are managed as real options on market uncertainties. Social impacts of plant shutdowns incentivize balancing asset value with shutdown probability. We propose new shutdown-averse policies based on the popular dynamic conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). We analytically and numerically compare these policies to known shutdown-averse policies based on anticipated regret (AR). Our findings support the use of AR over CVaR to embed shutdown-aversion and the consideration of hybrid policies that are asymptotically time-consistent but easily interpretable. 相似文献
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This study sets up a compound option approach for evaluating pharmaceutical R&D investment projects in the presence of technical and economic uncertainties. Technical uncertainty is modeled as a Poisson jump that allows for failure and thus abandonment of the drug development. Economic uncertainty is modeled as a standard diffusion process which incorporates both up-and downward shocks. Practical application of this method is emphasized through a case analysis. We show that both uncertainties have a positive impact on the R&D option value. Moreover, from the sensitivity analysis, we find that the sensitivity of the option with respect to economic uncertainty and market introduction cost decreases when technical uncertainty increases. 相似文献
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多层气藏中气体流动问题的新模型及其应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文针对气井产量与井筒集是变数时,建立了多层气藏内真实气体渗流问题的新模型,求出了三种典型外边界条件下各储层压力分布精确解,作为特例,又得到了均质气藏内压力分布的精确解并给出了在气田开发中的应用. 相似文献
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An approach to the valuation and decision of ERP investment projects based on real options 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The risks and uncertainties inherent in most enterprise resources planning (ERP) investment projects are vast. Decision making
in multistage ERP projects investment is also complex, due mainly to the uncertainties involved and the various managerial
and/or physical constraints to be enforced. This paper tackles the problem using a real-option analysis framework, and applies
multistage stochastic integer programming in formulating an analytical model whose solution will yield optimum or near-optimum
investment decisions for ERP projects. Traditionally, such decision problems were tackled using lattice simulation or finite
difference methods to compute the value of simple real options. However, these approaches are incapable of dealing with the
more complex compound real options, and their use is thus limited to simple real-option analysis. Multistage stochastic integer
programming is particularly suitable for sequential decision making under uncertainty, and is used in this paper and to find
near-optimal strategies for complex decision problems. Compared with the traditional approaches, multistage stochastic integer
programming is a much more powerful tool in evaluating such compound real options. This paper describes the proposed real-option
analysis model and uses an example case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. 相似文献