Uncertain portfolio optimization problem under a minimax risk measure

Portfolio optimization problem is concerned with choosing an optimal portfolio strategy that can strike a balance between maximizing investment return and minimizing investment risk. In many cases, the return rate of risky asset is neither a random variable nor a fuzzy variable. Then, it can be described as an uncertain variable. But, the existing works on uncertain portfolio optimization problem fail to find an analytic solution of optimal portfolio strategy. In this paper, we define a new uncertain risk measure for the modeling of investment risk. Then, an uncertain portfolio optimization model is formulated. By introducing a new variable, we transform it into an equivalent bi-criteria optimization model. Then, we derive a method for the construction of the set of analytic Pareto optimal solutions. Finally, a numerical simulation is carried out to show the applicability of the proposed model and the convenience of finding the analytic solution.     

Cost-effective sulphur emission reduction under uncertainty

The problem of reducing SO₂ emissions in Europe is considered. The costs of reduction are assumed to be uncertain and are modeled by a set of possible scenarios. A mean-variance model of the problem is formulated and a specialized computational procedure is developed. The approach is applied to the trans-boundary air pollution model with real-world data.     

Mean-variance optimization problems for an accumulation phase in a defined benefit plan

In this paper we deal with contribution rate and asset allocation strategies in a pre-retirement accumulation phase. We consider a single cohort of workers and investigate a retirement plan of a defined benefit type in which an accumulated fund is converted into a life annuity. Due to the random evolution of a mortality intensity, the future price of an annuity, and as a result, the liability of the fund, is uncertain. A manager has control over a contribution rate and an investment strategy and is concerned with covering the random claim. We consider two mean-variance optimization problems, which are quadratic control problems with an additional constraint on the expected value of the terminal surplus of the fund. This functional objectives can be related to the well-established financial theory of claim hedging. The financial market consists of a risk-free asset with a constant force of interest and a risky asset whose price is driven by a Lévy noise, whereas the evolution of a mortality intensity is described by a stochastic differential equation driven by a Brownian motion. Techniques from the stochastic control theory are applied in order to find optimal strategies.     

A heuristic decomposition approach to optimal control in a water supply model

The optimal pump control problem in a water supply system can be formulated as a mixed integer programming problem. In general, this problem is very difficult to solve by conventional integer programming algorithms, because the number of decision variables is as large as the total number of combinations of pump stations and control periods. However, it possesses a certain block triangular structure, which offers an attractive computational scheme. Taking advantage of this structure, this paper proposes a heuristic decomposition algorithm for finding a good feasible solution to this type of mixed integer programming problems. Numerical results for an actual pump control problem are also reported.     

Optimal control problem of the uncertain second‐order circuit based on first hitting criteria

First hitting criteria of a system are to initially achieve some performance indeces of the target state set. This paper primarily investigates the optimal control problem of the uncertain second‐order circuit based on first hitting criteria. First, considering time efficiency and different from the ordinary expected utility criterion over an infinite time horizon, two first hitting criteria which are reliability index and reliable time criteria are innovatively proposed. Second, assuming the circuit output voltage as an uncertain variable when the historical data is lacking, we better model the real circuit system with the uncertain second‐order differential equation which is essentially the uncertain fractional‐order differential equation. Then, based on the first hitting time theorem of the uncertain fractional‐order differential equation, the distribution function of the first hitting time under the second‐order circuit system is proposed and the uncertain second‐order circuit optimal control model (reliability index and reliable time‐based model) is transformed into corresponding crisp optimal problem. Lastly, analytic expressions of the optimal control for the reliability index model are obtained. Meanwhile, sufficient condition and guidance for parameters for the optimal solution of the reliable time‐based model are derived, and corresponding numerical examples are also given to demonstrate the fluctuation of our optimal solution for different parameters.     

基于灰色理论的价格控制问题及其算法

针对排污收费的最优定价问题,提出了基于灰色理论的价格控制问题,并给出了该问题的模型及相关的定理。在约束域为非空紧集的条件下,证明了漂移型价格控制问题的最优解一定可以在约束域的极点达到。针对漂移型价格控制问题,采用价格控制问题的搜索算法的求解技术,把灰参数看做一个新的决策变量,将该问题转化为多个含参数的非线性规划问题。最后,通过一算例验证了模型及求解方法的有效性。     

Heuristic algorithms for siting alternative-fuel stations using the Flow-Refueling Location Model

This paper presents three heuristic algorithms that solve for the optimal locations for refueling stations for alternative-fuels, such as hydrogen, ethanol, biodiesel, natural gas, or electricity. The Flow-Refueling Location Model (FRLM) locates refueling stations to maximize the flow that can be refueled with a given number of facilities. The FRLM uses path-based demands, and because of the limitations imposed by the driving range of vehicles, longer paths require combinations of more than one station to refuel round-trip travel. A mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) version of the model has been formulated and published and could be used to obtain an optimal solution. However, because of the need for combinations of stations to satisfy demands, a realistic problem with a moderate size network and a reasonable number of candidate sites would be impractical to generate and solve with MILP methods. In this research, heuristic algorithms—specifically the greedy-adding, greedy-adding with substitution and genetic algorithm—are developed and applied to solve the FRLM problem. These algorithms are shown to be effective and efficient in solving complex FRLM problems. For case study purposes, the heuristic algorithms are applied to locate hydrogen-refueling stations in the state of Florida.     

An application of interactive multi-criteria optimization to air pollution control

In this paper a problem of air pollution control is studied, posing it as a multi-objective control problem of partial differential equations. The original problem, dealing with the optimal management of a set of industrial plants inside a populated area, is formulated by means of the diffusion transport equation, including a linear reaction term and source terms modelled by Dirac deltas. Introducing adjoint state techniques, the problem transforms into a problem of multi-objective optimization in Banach spaces, where the large number of objective functions discourages the complete search of its Pareto front. Therefore, in order to solve the problem, two interactive methods of multi-objective programming are proposed: the VIA and the STEM algorithms. Finally, the paper illustrates how to combine both algorithms to solve in a more effective way a realistic problem posed in the Metropolitan Area of Guadalajara (Mexico).     

OPTIMAL GRAZING MANAGEMENT RULES IN SEMI‐ARID RANGELANDS WITH UNCERTAIN RAINFALL

Abstract. We study optimal adaptive grazing management under uncertain rainfall in a discrete‐time model. As in each year actual rainfall can be observed during the short rainy season, and grazing management can be adapted accordingly for the growing season; the closed‐loop solution of the stochastic optimal control problem does not only depend on the state variable, but also on the realization of the random rainfall. This distinguishes optimal grazing management from the optimal use of most other natural resources under uncertainty, where the closed‐loop solution of the stochastic optimal control problem depends only on the state variables. Solving this unusual stochastic optimization problem allows us to critically contribute to a long‐standing controversy over how to optimally manage semi‐arid rangelands by simple rules of thumb.     

动态投入产出最优控制模型

本文建立了一个新的具有上下限约束的投入产出问题的最优控制模型 ,并把最优控制问题转化为动态规划问题 ,利用动态最优化的方法给出了该问题的求解方法     

Robust suboptimal control of nonlinear systems

In this paper, we consider a nonlinear dynamic system with uncertain parameters. Our goal is to choose a control function for this system that balances two competing objectives: (i) the system should operate efficiently; and (ii) the system’s performance should be robust with respect to changes in the uncertain parameters. With this in mind, we introduce an optimal control problem with a cost function penalizing both the system cost (a function of the final state reached by the system) and the system sensitivity (the derivative of the system cost with respect to the uncertain parameters). We then show that the system sensitivity can be computed by solving an auxiliary initial value problem. This result allows one to convert the optimal control problem into a standard Mayer problem, which can be solved directly using conventional techniques. We illustrate this approach by solving two example problems using the software MISER3.     

On distributionally robust multiperiod stochastic optimization

This paper considers model uncertainty for multistage stochastic programs. The data and information structure of the baseline model is a tree, on which the decision problem is defined. We consider “ambiguity neighborhoods” around this tree as alternative models which are close to the baseline model. Closeness is defined in terms of a distance for probability trees, called the nested distance. This distance is appropriate for scenario models of multistage stochastic optimization problems as was demonstrated in Pflug and Pichler (SIAM J Optim 22:1–23, 2012). The ambiguity model is formulated as a minimax problem, where the the optimal decision is to be found, which minimizes the maximal objective function within the ambiguity set. We give a setup for studying saddle point properties of the minimax problem. Moreover, we present solution algorithms for finding the minimax decisions at least asymptotically. As an example, we consider a multiperiod stochastic production/inventory control problem with weekly ordering. The stochastic scenario process is given by the random demands for two products. We determine the minimax solution and identify the worst trees within the ambiguity set. It turns out that the probability weights of the worst case trees are concentrated on few very bad scenarios.     

Mathematical analysis of the optimal location of wastewater outfalls

In this work we deal with the design of wastewater treatmentsystems, mainly the optimal placement of underwater outfalls.This problem can be formulated as a state constrained optimalcontrol problem where the control is the position of the outfalls,the cost function is the sum of the distances to the wastewaterfarms and the state equations are those modelling dissolvedoxygen and biochemical oxygen demand concentrations. We discretizethe problem by means of a characteristic Galerkin method andwe propose an interior point algorithm for the numerical resolutionof the discretized optimization problem.     

Mean-risk model for uncertain portfolio selection

This paper discusses the uncertain portfolio selection problem when security returns cannot be well reflected by historical data. It is proposed that uncertain variable should be used to reflect the experts’ subjective estimation of security returns. Regarding the security returns as uncertain variables, the paper introduces a risk curve and develops a mean-risk model. In addition, the crisp form of the model is provided. The presented numerical examples illustrate the application of the mean-risk model and show the disaster result of mistreating uncertain returns as random returns.     

Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Random Horizon

This paper examines the continuous-time mean-variance optimal portfolio selection problem with random market parameters and random time horizon. Treating this problem as a linearly constrained stochastic linear-quadratic optimal control problem, I explicitly derive the efficient portfolios and efficient frontier in closed forms based on the solutions of two backward stochastic differential equations. Some related issues such as a minimum variance portfolio and a mutual fund theorem are also addressed. All the results are markedly different from those in the problem with deterministic exit time. A key part of my analysis involves proving the global solvability of a stochastic Riccati equation, which is interesting in its own right.     

动态投入产出灰色最优控制模型

根据灰色系统理论,建立了动态投入产出问题的灰色最优控制模型.利用灰集合理论,把灰色最优控制问题转化为以隶属度为目标函数的(非灰色的)非线性规划问题,从而可利用非线性规划的方法求解这个灰色最优控制问题.     

Optimal Open-Loop Feedback Control of Robots under uncertainty

The aim of this presentation is to construct an optimal open-loop feedback controller for robots, which takes into account stochastic uncertainties. This way, optimal regulators being insensitive with respect to random parameter variations can be obtained. Usually, a precomputed feedback control is based on exactly known or estimated model parameters. However, in practice, often exact informations about model parameters, e.g. the payload mass, are not given. Supposing now that the probability distribution of the random parameter variation is known, in the following, stochastic optimisation methods will be applied in order to obtain robust open-loop feedback control. Taking into account stochastic parameter variations, the method works with expected cost functions evaluating the primary control expenses and the tracking error. The expectation of the total costs has then to be minimized. Corresponding to Model Predictive Control (MPC), here a sliding horizon is considered. This means that, instead of minimizing an integral from a starting time point t₀ to the final time t_f, the future time range [t; t+T], with a small enough positive time unit T, will be taken into account. The resulting optimal regulator problem under stochastic uncertainty will be solved by using the Hamiltonian of the problem. After the computation of a H-minimal control, the related stochastic two-point boundary value problem is then solved in order to find a robust optimal open-loop feedback control. The performance of the method will be demonstrated by a numerical example, which will be the control of robot under random variations of the payload mass. (© 2010 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Stochastic stability and robust control for sampled-data systems with Markovian jump parameters

In this paper, the problems of stochastic stability and robust control for a class of uncertain sampled-data systems are studied. The systems consist of random jumping parameters described by finite-state semi-Markov process. Sufficient conditions for stochastic stability or exponential mean square stability of the systems are presented. The conditions for the existence of a sampled-data feedback control and a multirate sampled-data optimal control for the continuous-time uncertain Markovian jump systems are also obtained. The design procedure for robust multirate sampled-data control is formulated as linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), which can be solved efficiently by available software toolboxes. Finally, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed techniques.     

Problem of optimal endogenous growth with exhaustible resources and possibility of a technological jump

In 2013, S. Aseev, K. Besov, and S. Kaniovski (“The problem of optimal endogenous growth with exhaustible resources revisited,” Dyn. Model. Econometr. Econ. Finance 14, 3–30) considered the problem of optimal dynamic allocation of economic resources in an endogenous growth model in which both production and research sectors require an exhaustible resource as an input. The problem is formulated as an infinite-horizon optimal control problem with an integral constraint imposed on the control. A full mathematical study of the problem was carried out, and it was shown that the optimal growth is not sustainable under the most natural assumptions about the parameters of the model. In the present paper we extend the model by introducing an additional possibility of “random” transition (jump) to a qualitatively new technological trajectory (to an essentially unlimited backstop resource). As an objective functional to be maximized, we consider the expected value of the sum of the objective functional in the original problem on the time interval before the jump and an evaluation of the state of the model at the moment of the jump. The resulting problem also reduces to an infinite-horizon optimal control problem, and we prove an existence theorem for it and write down an appropriate version of the Pontryagin maximum principle. Then we characterize the optimal transitional dynamics and compare the results with those for the original problem (without a jump).