三叉树模型下的等价鞅测度

本文研究了三叉树模型下的等价鞅测度刻划问题，得到了三叉树模型的最小熵鞅测度，逆相对熵鞅测度，方差最优鞅测度和极小鞅测度的精确表达式。     

一类特殊半鞅模型中无套利测度的刻划

本文研究金融市场中一类特殊半鞅模型,其价格过程具有X=LD的形式,这里L是局部有界鞅,D是可料有限变差过程.对这类模型我们导出其等价鞅测度存在的充分必要条件.另外,我们将[2]中的条件/△M/≤C推广到M为局部有界鞅,得到相应的结果.     

认股权证的等价鞅测度定价模型与数值方法

本文对认股权证应用等价鞅测度方法进行定价 .推导出计算更自然、更简单的类似 Black- Scholes模型的认股权证定价公式 .给出了一种比较好的数值计算方法 .并讨论了认股权证在中国证券市场的发展状况 .     

复测度鞅变换的收敛性及其应用

在满足ｂ_∞~（Ｋ）∩ａ_１（Ｋ）条件的情况下,讨论了关于复测度ｄμ＝ωｄν的鞅变换,证明了复测度鞅变换的几乎处处收敛性定理。并且,作为该定理的一个应用,对复测度鞅的点态收敛性作了较精细的讨论。     

Carleson测度与Bloch的刻画

在文中，对于C^n中有界强拟凸域。我们得到Carleson测度，消没Carleson测度的刻画。利用Carleson测度，我们还得到Bloch，小Bloch的刻画。     

有限状态多期模型下的最小熵等价鞅测度及其应用

采用有限状态多期模型描述股票价格变动过程,导出了有红利支付情形下的最小熵等价鞅测度,给出了股票价格变动趋势的风险中性预期与红利率和无风险利率之间相对大小的关系,从理论上证明了无风险利率大于股票红利率时,市场将呈现出一种向上的风险中性趋势;无风险利率小于股票红利率时,市场将呈现出一种向下的风险中性趋势;无风险利率等于红利率时,股票价格将围绕初始价格上下波动而没有明显的风险中性趋势.     

可积鞅测度的弱收敛(英语)

本文引入了可积鞅测度弱收敛的概念,并给出了可积鞅测弱收敛的一系列条件     

复测度拟鞅的若干性质

本文讨论了复测度拟鞅的若干性质.利用复测度鞅的相关结果,证明了关于复值函数Ψ的条件下,复测度拟鞅的弱型不等式及复测度拟鞅变换的收敛性.     

基于鞅测度的流动性风险溢价的测算

研究了在一般市场条件下流动性风险的定价问题.首先借助金融数学和金融工程的无套利思想在鞅测度下对市场风险和流动性风险进行定价,通过等价测度变换,使可交易资产的贴现价值过程转化为鞅过程,得到了市场风险和流动性风险的市场价格,进而给出了流动性风险溢价的计算公式.得到的风险的市场价格在同一市场中对于所有可交易资产都是相同的,并且这一价格对于所有投资者也都是相同的,不会因投资者的风险厌恶水平的不同而不同.     

几何Lévy模型中鞅测度的均值修正法及应用

在几何Levy过程模型中,利用均值修正方法构造了一个鞅测度Q~(m_0).证明了Q~(m_0)为等价鞅测度的充要条件是Levy过程具有Brownian运动部分.对于纯跳过程,证明了欧式看涨期权在Q~(m_0)下的价格仍然无套利.     

Market Viability and Martingale Measures under Partial Information

We consider a financial market model with a single risky asset whose price process evolves according to a general jump-diffusion with locally bounded coefficients and where market participants have only access to a partial information flow. For any utility function, we prove that the partial information financial market is locally viable, in the sense that the optimal portfolio problem has a solution up to a stopping time, if and only if the (normalised) marginal utility of the terminal wealth generates a partial information equivalent martingale measure (PIEMM). This equivalence result is proved in a constructive way by relying on maximum principles for stochastic control problems under partial information. We then characterize a global notion of market viability in terms of partial information local martingale deflators (PILMDs). We illustrate our results by means of a simple example.     

有跳-扩散违约风险的可转换债券的定价

本文研究在跳-扩散违约风险模型下可转换债券的定价问题,假定股票价格服从对数正态分布,利用Martingale Pricing方法推导出其定价公式.     

多项Probit模型参数的极大似然估计

本文考虑多项probit模型中参数的极大似然估计(MLE)的存在性.在协方差阵已知和均匀结构两种情况下,给出MLE存在的充要条件.     

文本信息在P2P借贷平台违约评价中的作用——基于Multinomial Lasso-logistic模型

选取Lending Club 2007年1月至2016年3月的交易数据,运用Multinomial Lasso-logistic模型得到影响平台违约的关键因素并预测了违约概率.结果表明,出借人实际借款的总额、借款利率等因素对违约有显著的影响,此外与以往研究不同的是,发现由借款人提供的借款描述和借款标题等文本信息与违约之间显著负相关,说明当借款人提供更多的文本信息,将表现出相对较低的违约率.研究结论补充了现有文献的不足,对P2P平台的监管和投资者的决策提供了借鉴意义.     

Estimation of Multinomial Probabilities under a Model Constraint

In this paper estimation of the probabilities of a multinomial distribution has been studied. The five estimators considered are: unrestricted estimator (UE), restricted estimator (RE) (under model ), preliminary test estimator (PTE) based on a test of the model , shrinkage estimator (SE) and the positive-rule shrinkage estimator (PRSE). Asymptotic distributions of these estimators are given under Pitman alternatives and the asymptotic risk under a quadratic loss has been evaluated. The relative performance of the five estimators is then studied with respect to their asymptotic distributional risks (ADR). It is seen that neither of the preliminary test and shrinkage estimators dominates the other, though each fares well relative to the other estimators. However, the positive rule estimator is recommended for use for dimension 3 or more while the PTE is recommended for dimension less than 3.     

集值L1极限鞅导出的集值测度

讨论集值L1极限鞅的一些性质,在此基础上,研究集值L1极限鞅导出的集值测度及其性质.     

A Convenient Way to Characterize Equivalent Martingale Measures in Incomplete Markets

It is an empirical fact that the (empirically) relevant models for asset prices often describe markets that are incomplete in terms of their underlying assets, yielding many possible equivalent martingale measures under the no-arbitrage assumption. By using actual derivative prices, i.e., prices as observed in the market, additional information about the empirically relevant equivalent martingale measures might be obtained. In order to be able to process such information easily one needs a convenient way to represent all possible equivalent martingale measures in relation to derivative prices. In this paper we present such a convenient characterization. Conceptually, our characterization is not different from existing characterizations using, for example, Radon–Nikodym derivatives of martingale measures with respect to objective probabilities, but our characterization offers some advantages. The main advantage is that pricing derivatives is split up into two steps. The first step is solving a related complete markets pricing problem. This is a well-studied problem, so that it can easily be solved generally. In the second step a weighted average of the first step complete markets price must be calculated. Pricing under different equivalent martingale measures in the original market only differs with respect to the second step. The empirically relevant weighting can be determined by confronting the theoretical with the actually observed prices. As a byproduct we obtain a new and natural definition of idiosyncratic risk, which we show to be in line with the use of this term in the literature.To illustrate the ideas we discuss several examples. Among others we obtain the Hull–White formula for options on assets with stochastic volatility under close to minimal conditions that (for example) do not rely on a specification of the processes in terms of Itô diffusion.we relax the assumption of no-correlation between asset prices and volatilities in the Hull–White framework; we consider the case where the stochastic volatility does bear a risk-premium; we discuss pricing under stochastic interest rates; and we consider square-root type processes. All these pricing problems, and many more, can conveniently be handled using the approach based on our characterization of the equivalent martingale measures in continuous time markets that are incomplete in the underlying assets.