Parallel discrete event simulation algorithm for manufacturing supply chains

Parallel discrete event simulation (PDES) is concerned with the distributed execution of large-scale system models on multiple processors. It is an enabler in the implementation of the virtual enterprise concept, integrating semi-autonomous models of production cells, factories, or units of a supply chain. The key issue in PDES is to maintain causality relationships between system events, while maximizing parallelism in their execution. Events can be executed conservatively only when it is safe to do so, sacrificing the extent to which potential parallelism of the system can be exploited. Alternatively, they can be processed optimistically without guarantee of correctness, but incurring the overhead of a rollback to an earlier saved state when causality error is detected. The paper proposes a modified optimistic scheme for distributed simulation of constituent models of a supply chain in manufacturing, which exploits the inherent operating characteristics of its domain.     

基于Agent-DEVS的应急物资保障多分辨率建模研究

多分辨率(Multi-resolution,MR)建模是复杂自适应系统建模和分布式仿真发展急需解决的现实问题,在分析多分辨率模型组织结构和演化方式的基础上,对Agent-DEVS规范进行扩展,加入多分辨率建模层级和相关元组,建立了MR-Agent-DEVS建模规范。将MR-Agent-DEVS引入应急物资保障的仿真建模,完成了耦合模型与仿真流程设计,以及成员模型与典型消息设计。实验结果表明:MR-Agent-DEVS模型能够仿真应急物资保障行为,较聚合解聚法、视点选择法而言,对分辨率控制的时效性更强,灵活性更大,一致性较好,更有利于降低系统负载;与Agent-DEVS模型相比,虽然多分辨率控制在一定程度上增加了模型复杂度,但两者的执行效率基本相当,从而验证了MR-Agent-DEVS模型的实用性。     

Tiling optimization for the solution of two-dimensional time-dependent heat equation

Tiling optimization for the solution of the Dirichlet problem for the two-dimensional heat equation on computers with distributed memory is investigated. Estimates of the amount of communications and computations are obtained. The tiling optimization problem is reduced to the minimization of a function that explicitly expresses the dependence of the execution time on the tile size and the parameters of the target supercomputer—the dimension and size of the computing environment, processor performance, initialization time, and capacity of the communication channels.     

Quantile regression metamodeling: Toward improved responsiveness in the high-tech electronics manufacturing industry

Both technology and market demands within the high-tech electronics manufacturing industry change rapidly. Accurate and efficient estimation of cycle-time (CT) distribution remains a critical driver of on-time delivery and associated customer satisfaction metrics in these complex manufacturing systems. Simulation models are often used to emulate these systems in order to estimate parameters of the CT distribution. However, execution time of such simulation models can be excessively long limiting the number of simulation runs that can be executed for quantifying the impact of potential future operational changes. One solution is the use of simulation metamodeling which is to build a closed-form mathematical expression to approximate the input–output relationship implied by the simulation model based on simulation experiments run at selected design points in advance. Metamodels can be easily evaluated in a spreadsheet environment “on demand” to answer what-if questions without needing to run lengthy simulations. The majority of previous simulation metamodeling approaches have focused on estimating mean CT as a function of a single input variable (i.e., throughput). In this paper, we demonstrate the feasibility of a quantile regression based metamodeling approach. This method allows estimation of CT quantiles as a function of multiple input variables (e.g., throughput, product mix, and various distributional parameters of time-between-failures, repair time, setup time, loading and unloading times). Empirical results are provided to demonstrate the efficacy of the approach in a realistic simulation model representative of a semiconductor manufacturing system.     

基于改进型GERT网络的供应链突发事件风险传递研究

突发事件会对供应链运作产生巨大影响,甚至会导致整个网络断裂。针对供应链系统中突发事件的风险传递问题,分别构建了基于GERT网络的供应链正常交付模型、延期交付模型和突发事件风险传递模型,并依据模型结构,推导了相应的矩母函数和传递函数表达式。在模型解析的基础上,设计了供应链突发事件风险传递的定量化分析策略。通过对比供应链正常交付模型和延期交付模型的求解结果,得到各个环节的最终延迟时间;再通过突发事件风险传递模型的拟合计算,进一步定量化描述风险在逐级传递过程中的叠加程度。最后,通过一个汽车供应链网络案例,验证了模型和方法的适用性。     

价格和服务双因素影响的供应链协调决策模型研究

以单个制造商和存在竞争的两个零售商组成的供应链结构模型为研究对象,建立价格和服务两个重要因素影响的市场需求函数,研究供应链协调决策模型。以销售价格、服务质量和制造商批发价格作为三个决策变量,分析集中决策和分散决策两种情景的最优策略,研究收益共享、服务成本分担、收益共享成本分担等三种不同契约的供应链协调问题,并使用数值仿真方法,分析了相关参数变化对系统协调的影响。仿真结果表明:收益共享契约和成本分担契约需满足一定条件才能达到供应链协调,但其效果不一定实现帕累托最优;收益共享和成本分担契约可实现供应链协调,但收入共享系数需在合理区间取值;改进的收益共享成本分担契约能够避免共享系数的盲区,更加有效地达到供应链协调,保持供应链良好运行。     

Experimental study of scheduling with memory constraints using hybrid methods

In this paper we study divisible load scheduling in systems with limited memory. Divisible loads are parallel computations which can be divided into independent parts processed in parallel on remote computers, and the part sizes may be arbitrary. The distributed system is a heterogeneous single level tree. The total size of processor memories is too small to accommodate the whole load at any moment of time. Therefore, the load is distributed in many rounds. Memory reservations have block nature. The problem consists in distributing the load taking into account communication time, computation time, and limited memory buffers so that the whole processing finishes as early as possible. This problem is both combinatorial and algebraic in nature. Therefore, hybrid algorithms are given to solve it. Two algorithms are proposed to solve the combinatorial component. A branch-and-bound algorithm is nearly unusable due to its complexity. Then, a genetic algorithm is proposed with more tractable execution times. For a given solution of the combinatorial part we formulate the solution of the algebraic part as a linear programming problem. An extensive computational study is performed to analyze the impact of various system parameters on the quality of the solutions. From this we were able to infer on the nature of the scheduling problem.     

A flexible and generic approach to dynamic modelling of supply chains

In this paper, we present a new modelling approach for realistic supply chain simulation. The model provides an experimental environment for informed comparison between different supply chain policies. A basic simulation model for a generic node, from which a supply chain network can be built, has been developed using an object-oriented approach. This generic model allows the incorporation of the information and physical systems and decision-making policies used by each node. The object-oriented approach gives the flexibility in specifying the supply chain configuration and operation decisions, and policies. Stochastic simulations are achieved by applying Latin Supercube Sampling to the uncertain variables in descending order of importance, which reduces the number of simulations required. We also present a case study to show that the model is applicable to a real-life situation for dynamic stochastic studies.     

Inventory Positioning in Multiple Product Supply Chains

In this paper we address the problem of inventory positioning, i.e., the determination of the supply chain node where inventory should be held, to minimize holding costs given a pre-specified order fill rate. A single-echelon inventory system with multiple products models the problem. The value of inventory is assumed to be an increasing function of the amount of processing performed at upstream nodes, while achieved fill-rates are dependent on the distance or time between the inventory storage and customer locations. We propose a novel analytical approach to solve the problem for the case of normally distributed demand that is based on iterative calculations of inventory holding costs at the various potential inventory locations.     

A Hybrid Taguchi–Immune approach to optimize an integrated supply chain design problem with multiple shipping

Supply chain network design is considered a strategic decision level problem that provides an optimal platform for the effective and efficient supply chain management. In this research, we have mathematically modeled an integrated supply chain design. To ensure high customer service levels, we propose the inclusion of multiple shipping/transportation options and distributed customer demands with fixed lead times into the supply chain distribution framework and formulated an integer-programming model for the five-tier supply chain design problem considered. The problem has been made additionally complex by including realistic assumptions of nonlinear transportation and inventory holding costs and the presence of economies of scale. In the light of aforementioned facts, this research proposes a novel solution methodology that amalgamates the features of Taguchi technique with Artificial Immune System (AIS) for the optimum or near optimum resolution of the problem at hand. The performance of the proposed solution methodology has been benchmarked against a set of test instances and the obtained results are compared against those obtained by Genetic Algorithm (GA), Hybrid Taguchi–Genetic Algorithm (HTGA) and AIS. Simulation results indicate that the proposed approach can not only search for optimal/near optimal solutions in large search spaces but also has good repeatability and convergence characteristics, thereby proving its superiority.     

The impact of forecasting model selection on the value of information sharing in a supply chain

This paper presents a study on the impact of forecasting model selection on the value of information sharing in a supply chain with one capacitated supplier and multiple retailers. Using a computer simulation model, this study examines demand forecasting and inventory replenishment decisions by the retailers, and production decisions by the supplier under different demand patterns and capacity tightness. Analyses of the simulation output indicate that the selection of the forecasting model significantly influences the performance of the supply chain and the value of information sharing. Furthermore, demand patterns faced by retailers and capacity tightness faced by the supplier also significantly influence the value of information sharing. The result also shows that substantial cost savings can be realized through information sharing and thus help to motivate trading partners to share information in the supply chain. The findings can also help supply chain managers select suitable forecasting models to improve supply chain performance.     

TIMBER SUPPLY UNDER DEMAND UNCERTAINTY: WELFARE GAINS FROM PERFECT COMPETITION WITH RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS

ABSTRACT. This paper presents a noneconometric approach to estimating the short‐run timber supply function based on optimal harvest decisions. Determination of optimal harvest levels and estimation of supply function coefficients are integrated into one step by incorporating a parametric short‐run timber supply function into the harvest decision model. In this manner we convert the original harvest decision model into a new optimization problem with the supply function coefficients functioning as “decision variables.” Optimal solution to the new decision model gives the coefficients of the short‐run supply function and, indirectly, the optimal harvest levels. This approach enables us to develop stochastic models of the timber market that are particularly useful for forest sector analysis involving comparison of alternative institutional regimes or policy proposals and when the timber market is affected by stochastic variables. For demonstration purposes, we apply this method to compare the performances of two timber market regimes (perfect competition and monopoly) under demand uncertainty, using the Swedish data. The results show that the expected timber price is 22 percent lower and the expected annual timber supply is 43 percent higher in the competitive market than in the monopoly market. This confirms the theoretical result that monopoly reduces supply and increases price. The expected social welfare gain from perfect competition over monopoly is about 24 percent.     

A supply chain design problem with facility location and bi-objective transportation choices

A supply chain design problem based on a two-echelon single-product system is addressed. The product is distributed from plants to distribution centers and then to customers. There are several transportation channels available for each pair of facilities between echelons. These transportation channels introduce a cost?Ctime tradeoff in the problem that allows us to formulate it as a bi-objective mixed-integer program. The decisions to be taken are the location of the distribution centers, the selection of the transportation channels, and the flow between facilities. Three variations of the classic ??-constraint method for generating optimal Pareto fronts are studied in this paper. The procedures are tested over six different classes of instance sets. The three sets of smallest size were solved completely obtaining their efficient solution set. It was observed that one of the three proposed algorithms consistently outperformed the other two in terms of their execution time. Additionally, four schemes for obtaining lower bound sets are studied. These schemes are based on linear programming relaxations of the model. The contribution of this work is the introduction of a new bi-objective optimization problem, and a computational study of the ??-constraint methods for obtaining optimal efficient fronts and the lower bounding schemes.     

Managing uncertainty in major equipment procurement in engineering projects

A better management of time uncertainty in major equipment procurement in engineering construction projects can significantly contribute to project performance. A survey study shows that time buffer is a popularly used approach to protect project schedule from activity duration variation and uncertainty. The problem is that there are repetitive time allowances inserted in the procurement supply chain process and these time buffers are used ineffectively, thus leading to considerable time wastage. Relevant lessons from supply chain management and critical chain project management are combined and applied to create an enhanced critical supply chain management model for major equipment procurement to achieve better management of time uncertainty. This model does not perceive uncertainty purely as a threat, but also as an opportunity to reduce procurement cycle times.     

On the utility of graphics cards to perform massively parallel simulation of advanced Monte Carlo methods

We present a case-study on the utility of graphics cards to perform massively parallel simulation of advanced Monte Carlo methods. Graphics cards, containing multiple Graphics Processing Units (GPUs), are self-contained parallel computational devices that can be housed in conventional desktop and laptop computers and can be thought of as prototypes of the next generation of many-core processors. For certain classes of population-based Monte Carlo algorithms they offer massively parallel simulation, with the added advantage over conventional distributed multi-core processors that they are cheap, easily accessible, easy to maintain, easy to code, dedicated local devices with low power consumption. On a canonical set of stochastic simulation examples including population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and Sequential Monte Carlo methods, we nd speedups from 35 to 500 fold over conventional single-threaded computer code. Our findings suggest that GPUs have the potential to facilitate the growth of statistical modelling into complex data rich domains through the availability of cheap and accessible many-core computation. We believe the speedup we observe should motivate wider use of parallelizable simulation methods and greater methodological attention to their design.     

The stochastic capacitated branch restructuring problem

Traditionally, in the fashion industry, purchasing decisions for retailers are made based on various factors such as budget, profit target, and interest rate. Since the market demand is highly volatile, risk is inherently present and it is critically important to incorporate risk consideration into the decision making framework. Motivated by the observed industrial practice, we explore via a mean-variance approach the multi-period risk minimization inventory models for fashion product purchasing. We first construct a basic multi-period risk optimization model for the fashion retailer and illustrate how its optimal solution can be determined by solving a simpler problem. Then, we analytically find that the optimal ordering quantity is increasing in the expected profit target, decreasing in the number of periods of the season, and increasing in the market interest rate. After that, we propose and solve several extended models which consider realistic and timely industrial measures such as minimum ordering quantity, carbon emission tax, and carbon quota. We analytically derive the necessary and sufficient condition(s) for the existence of the optimal solution for each model and show how the purchasing budget, the profit target, and the market interest rate affect the optimal solution. Finally, we investigate the supply chain coordination challenge and analytically illustrate how an upstream manufacturer can offer implementable supply contracts to optimize the supply chain.     

条件延期付款下一体化可控提前期模型研究

在一体化决策的供应链中,假设提前期与提前期成本服从幂函数关系,生产商允许零售商延期付款,但需要在订货时预付部分货款。首先,在延迟付款期给定时,通过建立该问题的数学模型,证明了不考虑决策变量整数约束时,系统存在唯一最优生产量、提前期和生产商每个生产周期内的运输批次,使得供应链总成本最小,并设计求解算法对问题进行了求解。以此为基础,假设延迟付款期是零售商订货量的增函数,结合模型的解析性质,给出了新的求解算法。最后通过数值算例和敏感性分析,说明了所得结论及其管理启示。