Competition analysis of a triopoly game with bounded rationality

A dynamic Cournot game characterized by three boundedly rational players is modeled by three nonlinear difference equations. The stability of the equilibria of the discrete dynamical system is analyzed. As some parameters of the model are varied, the stability of Nash equilibrium is lost and a complex chaotic behavior occurs. Numerical simulation results show that complex dynamics, such as, bifurcations and chaos are displayed when the value of speed of adjustment is high. The global complexity analysis can help players to take some measures and avoid the collapse of the output dynamic competition game.     

Comparative statics of a signaling game: An experimental study

In this paper a simple and basic signaling game is studied in an experimental environment. First, we check whether we can replicate some of the findings in the literature concerning equilibrium selection and the use and impact of costly signals. Second, and foremost, the comparative statics implications of the game are studied. The experimental results are related to the predictions of two competing behavioral models: a game model, in which subjects are assumed to behave in line with (refined) sequential equilibrium theory, and a decision model, in which subjects are assumed to behave as non-strategic decision makers. The experimental outcomes replicate the finding in the literature that costly messages are sent more frequently by ‘higher’ sender types (whose information is such that persuasion is also profitable to the responder), and that such messages have an impact on the behavior of the responder. These results are consistent with (versions of) both the game model and the decision model. The comparative statics results, however, clearly point in the direction of the decision model. Play is most strongly affected by ‘own’ payoff parameters, as predicted by the decision model, and less so by opponent's payoff parameters, as predicted by the mixed strategies of the refined sequential equilibrium. Particularly, a decision model in which players are assumed to adapt beliefs about opponents' choice probabilities in response to experience in previous play, appears to succeed best in organizing the data.     

A single-shot game of multi-period inspection

This paper deals with an inspection game of Customs and a smuggler during some days. Customs has two options of patrolling or not. The smuggler can take two strategies of shipping its cargo of contraband or not. Two players have several opportunities to take an action during a limited number of days but they may discard some of the opportunities. When the smuggling coincides with the patrol, there occurs one of three events: the capture of the smuggler by Customs, a success of the smuggling and nothing new. If the smuggler is captured or no time remains to complete the game, the game ends. There have been many studies on the inspection game so far by the multi-stage game model, where both players at a stage know players’ strategies taken at the previous stage. In this paper, we consider a two-person zero-sum single-shot game, where the game proceeds through multiple periods but both players do not know any strategies taken by their opponents on the process of the game. We apply dynamic programming to the game to exhaust all equilibrium points on a strategy space of player. We also clarify the characteristics of optimal strategies of players by some numerical examples.     

基于个人超出值的模糊联盟合作博弈最小二乘预核仁

本文给出了基于个人超出值的无限模糊联盟合作博弈最小二乘预核仁的求解模型,得到该模型的显式解析解,并研究该解的若干重要性质。证明了:本文给出的无限模糊联盟合作博弈的最小二乘预核仁与基于个人超出值的相等解(The equalizer solution),基于个人超出值的字典序解三者相等。进一步证明了:基于Owen线性多维扩展的无限模糊联盟合作博弈的最小二乘预核仁与基于个人超出值的经典合作博弈最小二乘预核仁相等。最后,通过数值实例说明本文提出的无限模糊联盟合作博弈求解模型的实用性与有效性。     

Discrete time dynamic multi-leader–follower games with stage-depending leaders under feedback information

Discrete time dynamic Stackelberg games with alternating leaders are recently brought forward by and dynamic programming algorithms are extended to discrete time dynamic Stackelberg games of two players with alternating leaders under feedback information structure. In many practical problems, there are multiple leaders and multiple followers. Moreover, the positions of leaders and followers may change at some stages. We aim to extend the results of discrete time dynamic Stackelberg games with alternating leaders to multi-leader–follower games and to obtain a new type of game, dynamic multi-leader–follower game with stage-depending leaders. To simplify the problem, all players in the model are divided into two groups. At each stage, players in one group act as leaders and the players in other group are followers. In the subsequent stage, the positions may go to the contrary. Actually, whether the players in some group act as leaders or not at some stage, depends on the information at the previous stage(s). Furthermore, dynamic programming algorithms are extended to dynamic multi-leader–follower game with stage-depending leaders under feedback information structure in this paper.     

Implementability of correlated and communication equilibrium outcomes in incomplete information games

In a correlated equilibrium, the players’ choice of actions is directed by correlated random messages received from an outside source, or mechanism. These messages allow for more equilibrium outcomes than without any messages (pure-strategy equilibrium) or with statistically independent ones (mixed-strategy equilibrium). In an incomplete information game, the messages may also reflect the types of the players, either because they are affected by extraneous factors that also affect the types (correlated equilibrium) or because the players themselves report their types to the mechanism (communication equilibrium). Mechanisms may be further differentiated by the connections between the messages that the players receive and their own and the other players’ types, by whether the messages are statistically dependent or independent, and by whether they are random or deterministic. Consequently, whereas for complete information games there are only three classes of equilibrium outcomes, with incomplete information the corresponding number is 14 or 15 for correlated equilibria and even larger—15, 16 or 17—for communication equilibria. For both solution concepts, the implication relations between the different kinds of equilibria form a two-dimensional lattice, which is considerably more intricate than the single-dimensional one of the complete information case.     

A link between sequential semi-anonymous nonatomic games and their large finite counterparts

We show that obtainable equilibria of a multi-period nonatomic game can be used by players in its large finite counterparts to achieve near-equilibrium payoffs. Such equilibria in the form of random state-to-action rules are parsimonious in form and easy to execute, as they are both oblivious of past history and blind to other players’ present states. Our transient results can be extended to a stationary case, where the finite multi-period games are special discounted stochastic games. In both nonatomic and finite games, players’ states influence their payoffs along with actions they take; also, the random evolution of one particular player’s state is driven by all players’ states as well as actions. The finite games can model diverse situations such as dynamic price competition. But they are notoriously difficult to analyze. Our results thus suggest ways to tackle these problems approximately.     

An attrition game on a network ruled by Lanchester’s square law

We consider two-person zero-sum attrition games in which an attacker and a defender are in combat with each other on a network. The attacker marches from a starting node to a destination node, hoping that the initial members survive the march. The defender deploys his forces on arcs in order to intercept the attacker. If the attacker encounters the defender on an arc, the attacker incurs casualties according to Lanchester’s square law. We consider two models: a one-shot game in which the two players have no information about their opponents, and a two-stage game in which both players have some information about their opponents. For both games, the payoff is defined as the number of survivors for the attacker. The attacker’s strategy is to choose a path, and the defender’s is to deploy the defending forces on arcs. We propose a numerical algorithm, in which nonlinear programming is embedded, to derive the equilibrium of the game.     

矩阵对策的公平性研究

众所周知，零和二人有限对策也称为矩阵对策。设做一个矩阵对策的两个局中人都希望对策结果尽可能公平。当两个局中人使用对策解中的策略进行对策时，如果对策结果最公平，那么这个对策解称为最优的。本文证明了最优对策解集的一些性质，然后给出矩阵对策公平度的概念并证明了它的一些有趣的性质。     

Preferred coalitions in cooperative differential games

There are many interesting situations which can be described by anN-person general-sum differential game. Such games are characterized by the fact that the strategy of each player depends upon reasonable assumptions about the strategies of the remaining players; and, thus, these games cannot be considered asN uncoupled optimal control problems. In such cases, we say that the game is not strictly competitive, but involves a mutual interest which makes it possible for all of the players to reduce their costs by cooperating with one another, provided the resulting agreement can be enforced. When cooperation is allowed and there are more than two players, there is always the question of whether all possible subcoalitions will be formed with equal ease. This work considers the situation in which a particular subcoalition is preferred. A theory of general-sum games with preferred coalitions is presented, together with constructive examples of alternative approaches which are unsatisfactory.     

Epistemic characterizations of iterated deletion of inferior strategy profiles in preference-based type spaces

Bonanno (Logics and the foundations of game and decision theory, Amsterdam University Press, Amsterdam, 2008) provides an epistemic characterization for the solution concept of iterated deletion of inferior strategy profiles (IDIP) by embedding strategic-form games with ordinal payoffs in non-probabilistic epistemic models which are built on Kripke frames. In this paper, we will follow the event-based approach to epistemic game theory and supplement strategic games with type space models, where each type is associated with a preference relation on the state space. In such a framework, IDIP can be characterized by the conditions that at least one player has correct beliefs about the state of the world and that there is common belief that every player is rational, has correct beliefs about the state of the world and has strictly monotone preferences. Moreover, we shall compare the epistemic motivations for IDIP and its mixed strategy variant known as strong rationalizability (SR). Presuppose the above conditions. Whenever there is also common belief that players’ preferences are representable by some expected utility function IDIP still applies. But if there is common belief that players’ preferences are representable by some expected payoff function, then SR results.     

Study on a 3-dimensional game model with delayed bounded rationality

A nonlinear dynamic triopoly game model is studied based on the theory of nonlinear dynamics and previous researches in this paper. A lagged structure is introduced to the model to study stability conditions of the Nash equilibrium under a local adjustment process when players price their products with delayed bounded rationality. Numerical simulations are provided to demonstrate the complexity of system evolvement and influence of the strategy of delayed bounded rationality on system stability. We find that besides the lagged structure, suitable delayed parameters are also important factors to eliminate chaos or expand the stable region of the system, and various players’ adjustment parameters have different effect on stability of the system.     

Neural nets in a group decision process

In recent years there has been some interest in applying Artificial Adaptive Agents (AAA) to the study of complex adaptive systems, especially economic systems. Neural networks are frequently employed as AAA. Artificial neural nets mimic certain aspects of the physical structure and information processing of the human brain and their most attractive characteristic is their ability to learn a pattern from a given set of examples. In this study, we investigated the ability of neural nets to model human behavior in a group decision process. The context was a market entry game with a linear payoff function and binary decisions. The players had to decide, for each trial, whether or not to enter a market whose capacity is public knowledge. Human behavior in this situation has been modeled and empirically validated by the Nash equilibrium for noncooperative n-person games. A simulation of the game was performed with neural nets instead of human subjects. The nets were trained using the results of the games in which they participated. The simulation with groups of neural nets exhibits phenomena very similar to those observed in groups of human players. Received February 2000     

Numerical construction of Nash and Stackelberg solutions in a two-player linear non-zero-sum positional differential game

Numerical methods are proposed for constructing Nash and Stackelberg solutions in a two-player linear non-zero-sum positional differential game with terminal cost functionals and geometric constraints on the players’ controls. The formalization of the players’ strategies and of the motions generated by them is based on the formalization and results from the theory of positional zero-sum differential games developed by N.N. Krasovskii and his school. It is assumed that the game is reduced to a planar game and the constraints on the players’ controls are given in the form of convex polygons. The problem of finding solutions of the game may be reduced to solving nonstandard optimal control problems. Several computational geometry algorithms are used to construct approximate trajectories in these problems, in particular, algorithms for constructing the convex hull as well as the union, intersection, and algebraic sum of polygons.     

On finite tetraprimary groups

A three-player game is considered in which the first and second players have dynamic superiority over the third player. Two fixed time points are specified. The game ends if either the first player captures the third player at the first time point, or the second player captures the third player at the second time point. We analyze a situation when the initial positions in the game are such that neither the first nor the second player alone can capture the third player at the specified points of time. We propose sufficient conditions on the parameters of the game under which, for given initial states of the players, the first and second players by applying some controls can guarantee that one of them will meet the third player at the prescribed moment. Simulation results for a model example are also presented.     

On the role of chance moves and information in two-person games

The value of information has been the subject of many studies in a strategic context. The central question in these studies is how valuable the information hidden in the chance moves of a game is for one or more of the players. Generally speaking, only the extra possibilities that are beneficial for the players have been considered so far. In this note we study the value of information for a special class of two-person games. For these games we also investigate how “badly” the players can do, both with and without knowing the result of the chance move. In this way one can determine to what extent the players are restricted in their possibilities by the fact that some information is hidden in the chance moves of the games. This allows for a comparison of the influence of the chance move to the control that the players have over the game result.     

A globalized Newton method for the computation of normalized Nash equilibria

The generalized Nash equilibrium is a Nash game, where not only the players’ cost functions, but also the constraints of a player depend on the rival players decisions. We present a globally convergent algorithm that is suited for the computation of a normalized Nash equilibrium in the generalized Nash game with jointly convex constraints. The main tool is the regularized Nikaido–Isoda function as a basis for a locally convergent nonsmooth Newton method and, in another way, for the definition of a merit function for globalization. We conclude with some numerical results.     

An attrition game on an acyclic network

This paper deals with noncooperative games in which two players conflict on a network through an attrition phenomenon. The associated problem has a variety of applications, but we model the problem as a military conflict between an attacker and a defender on an acyclic network. The attacker marches from a starting node to a destination node, expecting to keep his initial members untouched during the march. The defender deploys his forces on arcs to intercept the attacker. If the attacker goes through an arc with deployed defenders, the attacker incurs casualties according to Lanchester’s linear law. In this paper, we discuss two games having the number of remaining attackers as the payoff and propose systems of linear programming formulations to derive their equilibrium points. One game is a two-person zero-sum (TPZS) one-shot game with no information and the other is a TPZS game with two stages separated by information acquisition about players’ opponents.     

Dynamic competition over social networks

We propose an analytical approach to the problem of influence maximization in a social network where two players compete by means of dynamic targeting strategies. We formulate the problem as a two-player zero-sum stochastic game. We prove the existence of the uniform value: if the players are sufficiently patient, both can guarantee the same mean-average opinion without knowing the exact length of the game. Furthermore, we put forward some elements for the characterization of equilibrium strategies. In general, players must implement a trade-off between a forward-looking perspective, according to which they aim to maximize the future spread of their opinion in the network, and a backward-looking perspective, according to which they aim to counteract their opponent’s previous actions. When the influence potential of players is small, we describe an equilibrium through a one-shot game based on eigenvector centrality.     

On the theory of three-person differential games

A differential game of three players with dynamics described by linear differential equations under geometric constraints on the control parameters is considered. Sufficient conditions are obtained for the existence of the first player’s strategy guaranteeing that the trajectory of the game reaches a given target set for any admissible control of the second player and avoids the terminal set of the third player. An algorithm of constructing the first player’s strategy guaranteeing the game’s termination in finite time is suggested. A solution of a model example is given.