Hybrid fuzzy least-squares regression analysis in claims reserving with geometric separation method

Claims reserving is obviously necessary for representing future obligations of an insurance company and selection of an accurate method is a major component of the overall claims reserving process. However, the wide range of unquantifiable factors which increase the uncertainty should be considered when using any method to estimate the amount of outstanding claims based on past data. Unlike traditional methods in claims analysis, fuzzy set approaches can tolerate imprecision and uncertainty without loss of performance and effectiveness. In this paper, hybrid fuzzy least-squares regression, which is proposed by Chang (2001), is used to predict future claim costs by utilizing the concept of a geometric separation method. We use probabilistic confidence limits for designing triangular fuzzy numbers. Thus, it allows us to reflect variability measures contained in a data set in the prediction of future claim costs. We also propose weighted functions of fuzzy numbers as a defuzzification procedure in order to transform estimated fuzzy claim costs into a crisp real equivalent.     

Fuzzy random regression based multi-attribute evaluation and its application to oil palm fruit grading

Multi-attribute decision-making is usually concerned with weighting alternatives, thereby requiring weight information for decision attributes from a decision maker. However, the assignment of an attribute’s weight is sometimes difficult, and may vary from one decision maker to another. Additionally, imprecision and vagueness may affect each judgment in the decision-making process. That is, in a real application, various statistical data may be imprecise or linguistically as well as numerically vague. Given this coexistence of random and fuzzy information, the data cannot be adequately treated by simply using the formalism of random variables. To address this problem, fuzzy random variables are introduced as an integral component of regression models. Thus, in this paper, we proposed a fuzzy random multi-attribute evaluation model with confidence intervals using expectations and variances of fuzzy random variables. The proposed model is applied to oil palm fruit grading, as the quality inspection process for fruits requires a method to ensure product quality. We include simulation results and highlight the advantage of the proposed method in handling the existence of fuzzy random information.     

Fuzzy confidence interval for pH titration curve

In this paper we present a new method of confidence interval identification for Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy models in the case of the data with regionally changeable variance. The method combines a fuzzy identification methodology with some ideas from applied statistics. The idea is to find, on a finite set of measured data, the confidence interval defined by the lower and upper bounds. The confidence interval which defines the band that contains the measurement values with certain confidence. The method can be used when describing a family of uncertain nonlinear functions or when the systems with uncertain physical parameters are observed. In our example the proposed method is applied to model the pH-titration curve.     

Parameter Estimation of Multivariate Regression Model with Fuzzy Random Errors

In many real-world problems, observations are usually described by approximate values due to fuzzy uncertainty, unlikeprobabilistic uncertainty that has nothing to do with experimentation. The combination of statistical model and fuzzy set theory is helpful to improve the identification and analysis of complex systems. As an extension ofstatistical techniques, this study is an investigation of the relationship between fuzzy multiple explanatory variables and fuzzy response with numeric coefficients and the fuzzy random error term. In this work we describe a parameter estimation procedure carrying out the least-squares method in a complete metric space of fuzzy numbers to determine the coefficients based on the extension principle. We demonstrate how the fuzzy least squares estimators present large sample statistical properties, including asymptotic normality, strong consistency and confidence region. The estimators are also examined via asymptotic relative efficiency concerning traditional least squares estimators. Different from the construction of error term in Kim et al.\cite{21}, it is more reasonable in the proposed model since the problems of inconsistency in referring to fuzzy variable and producing the negative spreads may be avoided. The experimental study verifies that the proposed fuzzy least squares estimators achieve the meaning consistent with the theory identification for large sample data set and better generalization regarding one single variable model.     

Intelligent data analysis and model interpretation with spectral analysis fuzzy symbolic modeling

This paper proposes fuzzy symbolic modeling as a framework for intelligent data analysis and model interpretation in classification and regression problems. The fuzzy symbolic modeling approach is based on the eigenstructure analysis of the data similarity matrix to define the number of fuzzy rules in the model. Each fuzzy rule is associated with a symbol and is defined by a Gaussian membership function. The prototypes for the rules are computed by a clustering algorithm, and the model output parameters are computed as the solutions of a bounded quadratic optimization problem. In classification problems, the rules’ parameters are interpreted as the rules’ confidence. In regression problems, the rules’ parameters are used to derive rules’ confidences for classes that represent ranges of output variable values. The resulting model is evaluated based on a set of benchmark datasets for classification and regression problems. Nonparametric statistical tests were performed on the benchmark results, showing that the proposed approach produces compact fuzzy models with accuracy comparable to models produced by the standard modeling approaches. The resulting model is also exploited from the interpretability point of view, showing how the rule weights provide additional information to help in data and model understanding, such that it can be used as a decision support tool for the prediction of new data.     

Comparison of Heuristic Criteria for Fuzzy Rule Selection in Classification Problems

This paper compares heuristic criteria used for extracting a pre-specified number of fuzzy classification rules from numerical data. We examine the performance of each heuristic criterion through computational experiments on well-known test problems. Experimental results show that better results are obtained from composite criteria of confidence and support measures than their individual use. It is also shown that genetic algorithm-based rule selection can improve the classification ability of extracted fuzzy rules by searching for good rule combinations. This observation suggests the importance of taking into account the combinatorial effect of fuzzy rules (i.e., the interaction among them).     

考虑可信度和属性优先级的犹豫模糊决策方法

研究了考虑可信度的犹豫模糊混合集成因子以及考虑属性优先级的犹豫模糊多属性决策方法。首先给出了用于衡量数据差异程度的加权变异率公式,并证明了其具有类似于基尼系数的优良度量性质,之后在此基础上提出了可信度诱导犹豫模糊混合平均(CIHFHA)算子。针对属性权重信息未知的犹豫模糊决策问题,构建了一种新的考虑属性优先级的熵值修正G1的组合赋权方法,该方法可有效地利用属性客观评价数据以及通过考虑属性优先级体现专家意见,解决了主客观权重分配问题,得出的属性权重更加客观、合理。之后给出了一种基于CIHFHA算子和组合赋权方法的多属性决策方法,算例说明该方法的有效性和实用性。     

A fast approach to compute fuzzy values of matrix games with payoffs of triangular fuzzy numbers

The aim of this paper is to develop an effective method for solving matrix games with payoffs of triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs) which are arbitrary. In this method, it always assures that players’ gain-floor and loss-ceiling have a common TFN-type fuzzy value and hereby any matrix game with payoffs of TFNs has a TFN-type fuzzy value. Based on duality theorem of linear programming (LP) and the representation theorem for fuzzy sets, the mean and the lower and upper limits of the TFN-type fuzzy value are easily computed through solving the derived LP models with data taken from 1-cut set and 0-cut set of fuzzy payoffs. Hereby the TFN-type fuzzy value of any matrix game with payoffs of TFNs can be explicitly obtained. Moreover, we can easily compute the upper and lower bounds of any Alfa-cut set of the TFN-type fuzzy value for any matrix game with payoffs of TFNs and players’ optimal mixed strategies through solving the derived LP models at any specified confidence level Alfa. The proposed method in this paper is demonstrated with a numerical example and compared with other methods to show the validity, applicability and superiority.     

A method for solving fuzzy multicriteria decision problems with dependent criteria

We propose a new multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method based on fuzzy pair-wise comparisons and a feedback between the criteria. The evaluation of the weights of criteria, the variants as well as the feedback between the criteria is based on the data given in pair-wise comparison matrices. Extended arithmetic operations with fuzzy numbers are used as well as ordering fuzzy relations to compare fuzzy outcomes. An illustrating numerical example is presented to clarify the methodology. A special SW-Microsoft Excel add-in named FVK was developed for applying the proposed method. Comparing to other software products, FVK is free, able to work with fuzzy data and utilizes capabilities of widespread spreadsheet Microsoft Excel.     

Confidence levels based Pythagorean fuzzy aggregation operators and its application to decision-making process

Pythagorean fuzzy set, an extension of the intuitionistic fuzzy set which relax the condition of sum of their membership function to square sum of its membership functions is less than one. Under these environment and by incorporating the idea of the confidence levels of each Pythagorean fuzzy number, the present study investigated a new averaging and geometric operators namely confidence Pythagorean fuzzy weighted and ordered weighted operators along with their some desired properties. Based on its, a multi criteria decision-making method has been proposed and illustrated with an example for showing the validity and effectiveness of it. A computed results are compared with the aid of existing results.     

基于区间与模糊Shapley值的合作收益分配策略

将经典Shapley值三条公理进行拓广,提出具有模糊支付合作对策的Shapley值公理体系。研究一种特殊的模糊支付合作对策,即具有区间支付的合作对策,并且给出了该区间Shapley值形式。根据模糊数和区间数的对应关系,提出模糊支付合作对策的Shapley值,指出该模糊Shapley值是区间支付模糊合作对策的自然模糊延拓。结果表明:对于任意给定置信水平α,若α=1,则模糊Shapley值对应经典合作对策的Shapley值,否则对应具有区间支付合作对策的区间Shapley值。通过模糊数的排序,给出了最优的分配策略。由于对具有模糊支付的合作对策进行比较系统的研究,从而为如何求解局中人参与联盟程度模糊化、支付函数模糊化的合作对策,奠定了一定的基础。     

Triply fuzzy function approximation for hierarchical Bayesian inference

We prove that three independent fuzzy systems can uniformly approximate Bayesian posterior probability density functions by approximating the prior and likelihood probability densities as well as the hyperprior probability densities that underly the priors. This triply fuzzy function approximation extends the recent theorem for uniformly approximating the posterior density by approximating just the prior and likelihood densities. This approximation allows users to state priors and hyper-priors in words or rules as well as to adapt them from sample data. A fuzzy system with just two rules can exactly represent common closed-form probability densities so long as they are bounded. The function approximators can also be neural networks or any other type of uniform function approximator. Iterative fuzzy Bayesian inference can lead to rule explosion. We prove that conjugacy in the if-part set functions for prior, hyperprior, and likelihood fuzzy approximators reduces rule explosion. We also prove that a type of semi-conjugacy of if-part set functions for those fuzzy approximators results in fewer parameters in the fuzzy posterior approximator.     

Fuzzy chance constrained linear programming model for optimizing the scrap charge in steel production

Optimizing the charge in secondary steel production is challenging because the chemical composition of the scrap is highly uncertain. The uncertainty can cause a considerable risk of the scrap mix failing to satisfy the composition requirements for the final product. In this paper, we represent the uncertainty based on fuzzy set theory and constrain the failure risk based on a possibility measure. Consequently, the scrap charge optimization problem is modeled as a fuzzy chance constrained linear programming problem. Since the constraints of the model mainly address the specification of the product, the crisp equivalent of the fuzzy constraints should be less relaxed than that purely based on the concept of soft constraints. Based on the application context we adopt a strengthened version of soft constraints to interpret fuzzy constraints and form a crisp model with consistent and compact constraints for solution. Simulation results based on realistic data show that the failure risk can be managed by proper combination of aspiration levels and confidence factors for defining fuzzy numbers. There is a tradeoff between failure risk and material cost. The presented approach applies also for other scrap-based production processes.     

基于双论域模糊粗糙集的应急决策模型与方法

以突发危机事件应急决策为应用背景,讨论了双论域上模糊粗糙集的基本理论,建立了基于模糊相容关系的双论域模糊粗糙集模型. 在此基础上,把突发危机事件应急决策转化为一个具有模糊决策对象的双论域决策近似空间上的粗糙近似问题,构建了基于双论域模糊粗糙集的应急决策模型.首先在双论域近似空间中计算模糊决策对象的上(下)近似,进而结合经典非确定型决策的思想给出了突发危机事件应急决策的规则.同时,给出了模型的算法.该模型给出了一种在不完全信息环境下应急决策的方法,给出了在充分考虑决策者个人偏好信息基础上的决策置信度以及最优决策规则.该方法能够比较充分地符合应急决策信息不充分、资源有限以及时间紧迫的基本特征, 进而对突发危机事件应急决策提供科学的理论基础和现实的决策方法.最后,通过应用算例说明了模型的应用过程,结果验证了本文给出模型的有效性。     

Analysis of interpretability-accuracy tradeoff of fuzzy systems by multiobjective fuzzy genetics-based machine learning

This paper examines the interpretability-accuracy tradeoff in fuzzy rule-based classifiers using a multiobjective fuzzy genetics-based machine learning (GBML) algorithm. Our GBML algorithm is a hybrid version of Michigan and Pittsburgh approaches, which is implemented in the framework of evolutionary multiobjective optimization (EMO). Each fuzzy rule is represented by its antecedent fuzzy sets as an integer string of fixed length. Each fuzzy rule-based classifier, which is a set of fuzzy rules, is represented as a concatenated integer string of variable length. Our GBML algorithm simultaneously maximizes the accuracy of rule sets and minimizes their complexity. The accuracy is measured by the number of correctly classified training patterns while the complexity is measured by the number of fuzzy rules and/or the total number of antecedent conditions of fuzzy rules. We examine the interpretability-accuracy tradeoff for training patterns through computational experiments on some benchmark data sets. A clear tradeoff structure is visualized for each data set. We also examine the interpretability-accuracy tradeoff for test patterns. Due to the overfitting to training patterns, a clear tradeoff structure is not always obtained in computational experiments for test patterns.     

A new linear ordering of fuzzy numbers on subsets of {{\mathcal F}({\pmb{\mathbb{R}}}})

We introduce a novel linear order on every family of fuzzy numbers which satisfies the assumption that their modal values must be all different and must form a compact subset of . A distinct new feature is that our linear determined procedure employs the corresponding order of a class interval associated with a confidence measure which seems intuitively anticipated. It is worthy noting that although we start from an entirely different rationale, we introduce a fuzzy ordering which initially coincides with the one established earlier by Ramik and Rimanek. However, this fuzzy ordering does not apply when the supports of the fuzzy numbers overlap. In order to cover such cases we extent this initial fuzzy ordering to the “extended fuzzy order” (XFO). This new XFO method includes a possibility and a necessity measure which are compared with the widely accepted PD and NSD indices of D. Dubois and H. Prade. The comparison shows that our possibility and necessity measures comply better with our intuition.     

A linear regression model for imprecise response

A linear regression model with imprecise response and p real explanatory variables is analyzed. The imprecision of the response variable is functionally described by means of certain kinds of fuzzy sets, the LR fuzzy sets. The LR fuzzy random variables are introduced to model usual random experiments when the characteristic observed on each result can be described with fuzzy numbers of a particular class, determined by 3 random values: the center, the left spread and the right spread. In fact, these constitute a natural generalization of the interval data. To deal with the estimation problem the space of the LR fuzzy numbers is proved to be isometric to a closed and convex cone of R³ with respect to a generalization of the most used metric for LR fuzzy numbers. The expression of the estimators in terms of moments is established, their limit distribution and asymptotic properties are analyzed and applied to the determination of confidence regions and hypothesis testing procedures. The results are illustrated by means of some case-studies.     

Similarities in Fuzzy Regression Models

The solutions of a fuzzy regression model are obtained by converting the problem into a linear programming problem. For each level h, h[0, 1), there exists a solution. In this paper, we study the set of all the solutions to the fuzzy regression model that comes from a set of data as a metric space with an appropriate metric on it. We define a similarity ratio that allows us to compare the spaces of solutions of a fuzzy regression model that come from different sets of data. We also give an application using data sets concerning the GNP–money relationship.     

Confidence intervals for the regression parameter based on weighted log-rank estimating functions

In this paper construction of a confidence interval for the regression parameter under the accelerated life regression model is discussed. The confidence interval is based on the distribution of the regression estimator, approximated by a resampling method. The procedures are incorporated with some weight functions which have mass at censored data points as well as non-censored data points. Numerical studies show that for some weight functions, the proposed confidence interval performs well. We illustrate the procedures in a real data example.