Analysis of critical paths in a project network with fuzzy activity times

This paper proposes an approach to critical path analysis for a project network with activity times being fuzzy numbers, in that the membership function of the fuzzy total duration time is constructed. The basic idea is based on the extension principle and linear programming formulation. A pair of linear programs parameterized by possibility level α is formulated to calculate the lower and upper bounds of the fuzzy total duration time at α. By enumerating different values of α, the membership function of the fuzzy total duration time is constructed, and the fuzzy critical paths are identified at the same time. Moreover, by applying the Yager ranking method, definitions of the most critical path and the relative degree of criticality of paths are developed; and these definitions are theoretically sound and easy to use in practice. Two examples with activity times being fuzzy numbers of L-R and L-L types discussed in previous studies are solved successfully to demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach. Since the total duration time is completely expressed by a membership function rather than by a crisp value, the fuzziness of activity times is conserved completely, and more information is provided for critical path analysis.     

On the latest starting times and criticality of activities in a network with imprecise durations

This paper deals with problems of computing possible values of latest starting times and determining types of criticality for all activities in a network with interval or fuzzy activity durations. Although the problem of computing the latest starting times has been solved, a novel polynomial algorithm which is easy to understand and improves complexity is proposed.     

An improved fuzzy time series forecasting method using trapezoidal fuzzy numbers

One of the major drawbacks of the existing fuzzy time series forecasting models is the fact that they only provide a single-point forecasted value just like the output of the traditional time series methods. Hence, they cannot provide a decision analyst more useful information. The aim of this present research is to design an improved fuzzy time series forecasting method in which the forecasted value will be a trapezoidal fuzzy number instead of a single-point value. Furthermore, the proposed method may also increase the forecasting accuracy. Two numerical data sets were used to illustrate the proposed method and compare the forecasting accuracy with three fuzzy time series methods. The results of the comparison indicate that the proposed method can generate forecasting values that are more accurate.     

A simple approach to fuzzy critical path analysis in project networks

This paper develops a simple approach to critical path analysis in a project network with activity times being fuzzy numbers. The idea is based on the linear programming (LP) formulation and fuzzy number ranking method. The fuzzy critical path problem is formulated as an LP model with fuzzy coefficients of the objective function, and then on the basis of properties of linearity and additivity, the Yager’s ranking method is adopted to transform the fuzzy LP formulation to the crisp one which can be solved by using the conventional streamlined solution methods. Consequently, the critical path and total duration time can be obtained from the derived optimal solution. Moreover, in this paper we also define the most critical path and the relative path degree of criticality, which are theoretically sound and easy to use in practice. An example discussed in some previous studies illustrates that the proposed approach is able to find the most critical path, which is proved to be the same as that derived from an exhausted comparison of all possible paths. The proposed approach is very simple to apply, and it is not require knowing the explicit form of the membership functions of the fuzzy activity times.     

A heuristic solution framework for the resource constrained (multi-)project scheduling problem with sequence-dependent transfer times

We consider the problem of scheduling multiple projects subject to joint resource constraints. Most approaches proposed in the literature so far are based on the unrealistic assumption that resources can be transferred from one project to the other without any expense in time or cost. In order to contribute to closing this gap to reality, we generalise the multi-project scheduling problem by additionally including sequence- and resource-dependent transfer times, which represent setup activities necessary when a resource is removed from one project and reassigned to another (or from one job to another within the same project). In this paper, we define the modified resource constrained multi-project scheduling problem with transfer times (called RCMPSPTT), which aims at minimising the multi-project duration for the single-project approach or the mean project duration for the multi-project approach. We formulate both perspectives as an integer linear program, propose priority rule based solution procedures and present results of comprehensive computational experiments. Provided that the combination of scheduling scheme and priority rules is chosen appropriately, the procedures obtain good results. In particular, resource oriented priority rules are identified to be successful.     

A new heuristic for resource-constrained project scheduling in stochastic networks using critical chain concept

This paper presents a newly developed resource-constrained project scheduling method in stochastic networks by merging the new and traditional resource management methods. In each project, the activities consume various types of resources with fixed capacities. The duration of each activity is a random variable with a given density function. Since the backward pass method is implemented for feeding-in resources. The problem is to determine the finish time of each activity instead of its start time. The objective of the presented model is defined as minimizing the multiplication of expected project duration and its variance. The values of activities finish times are determined at decision points when at least one activity is ready to be operated and there are available resources. If at a certain point of time, more than one activity is ready to be operated but available resources are lacking, a competition among ready activities is carried out in order to select the activities which must be operated first. This paper suggests a competition routine by implementing a policy to maximize the total contribution of selected activities in reducing the expected project duration and its variance. In this respect, a heuristic algorithm is developed and compared with the other existing methods.     

Computing latest starting times of activities in interval-valued networks with minimal time lags

This paper deals with problems of determining possible values of earliest and latest starting times of an activity in networks with minimal time lags and imprecise durations that are represented by means of interval or fuzzy numbers. Although minimal time lags are practical in different projects, former researchers have not considered these problems.After proposing propositions which reduce the search space, a novel polynomial algorithm is presented to compute intervals of possible values of latest starting times in interval-valued networks with minimal time lags. Then, the results are extended to networks with fuzzy durations.     

A heuristic procedure for solving the dynamic probabilistic project expediting problem

Because of activity duration uncertainties, large-scale projects can often be modeled most realistically as probabilistic activity networks. The complex interactions among activities with uncertain durations virtually assures a low probability that these projects will be completed before predetermined due dates. As a result, it is often necessary to expedite individual activities in these projects to improve due date performance. This research introduces a dynamically applied matrix simulation approach for selecting expediting options in order to control the probability of successful project completion before predefined due dates. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate the ability of this new approach to generate quality alternatives and efficiently evaluate large-scale projects.     

A note on the modelling of project networks with time constraints

In this note we show how to manage, by means of Generalized Precedence Relationships, some kinds of temporal constraints introduced by Chen et al. (1997) in project networks.     

A note on inverses in arithmetic with fuzzy numbers

Algorithms for systematical search of inverse in arithmetic operations with fuzzy numbers are discussed. The fuzzy number derived is considered either in a discrete representation of its support or described by the parameters of the corresponding membership function formula. Both algorithms are easy to be programmed for desk calculators.     

Priority rule-based heuristic for multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling problems with resource vacations and activity splitting

This paper presents a priority rule-based heuristic for the multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling problem with the splitting of activities around unavailable resources allowed. All resources considered are renewable and each resource unit may not be available at all times due to resource vacations, which are known in advance. A new concept called moving resource strength is developed to help identify project situations where activity splitting is likely to be beneficial during scheduling. The moving resource strength concept is implemented in priority rule-based heuristics to control activity splitting when scheduling. Multiple comparisons of the performance of combination of activity–mode priority rules used in the heuristics are provided. Computational experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the heuristic in reducing project makespan, and minimizing activity splitting.     

A fuzzy shortest path with the highest reliability

This paper concentrates on a shortest path problem on a network where arc lengths (costs) are not deterministic numbers, but imprecise ones. Here, costs of the shortest path problem are fuzzy intervals with increasing membership functions, whereas the membership function of the total cost of the shortest path is a fuzzy interval with a decreasing linear membership function. By the max–min criterion suggested in [R.E. Bellman, L.A. Zade, Decision-making in a fuzzy environment, Management Science 17B (1970) 141–164], the fuzzy shortest path problem can be treated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem. We show that this problem can be simplified into a bi-level programming problem that is very solvable. Here, we propose an efficient algorithm, based on the parametric shortest path problem for solving the bi-level programming problem. An illustrative example is given to demonstrate our proposed algorithm.     

A novel method for solving linear programming problems with symmetric trapezoidal fuzzy numbers

Linear programming (LP) is a widely used optimization method for solving real-life problems because of its efficiency. Although precise data are fundamentally indispensable in conventional LP problems, the observed values of the data in real-life problems are often imprecise. Fuzzy sets theory has been extensively used to represent imprecise data in LP by formalizing the inaccuracies inherent in human decision-making. The fuzzy LP (FLP) models in the literature generally either incorporate the imprecisions related to the coefficients of the objective function, the values of the right-hand-side, and/or the elements of the coefficient matrix. We propose a new method for solving FLP problems in which the coefficients of the objective function and the values of the right-hand-side are represented by symmetric trapezoidal fuzzy numbers while the elements of the coefficient matrix are represented by real numbers. We convert the FLP problem into an equivalent crisp LP problem and solve the crisp problem with the standard primal simplex method. We show that the method proposed in this study is simpler and computationally more efficient than two competing FLP methods commonly used in the literature.     

A new method for solving fuzzy transportation problems using ranking function

In the literature, several methods are proposed for solving transportation problems in fuzzy environment but in all the proposed methods the parameters are represented by normal fuzzy numbers. [S.H. Chen, Operations on fuzzy numbers with function principal, Tamkang Journal of Management Sciences 6 (1985) 13–25] pointed out that in many cases it is not to possible to restrict the membership function to the normal form and proposed the concept of generalized fuzzy numbers. There are several papers in the literature in which generalized fuzzy numbers are used for solving real life problems but to the best of our knowledge, till now no one has used generalized fuzzy numbers for solving the transportation problems. In this paper, a new method is proposed for solving fuzzy transportation problems by assuming that a decision maker is uncertain about the precise values of the transportation cost, availability and demand of the product. In the proposed method transportation cost, availability and demand of the product are represented by generalized trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. To illustrate the proposed method a numerical example is solved and the obtained results are compared with the results of existing methods. Since the proposed method is a direct extension of classical method so the proposed method is very easy to understand and to apply on real life transportation problems for the decision makers.     

Modeling activity times by the Parkinson distribution with a lognormal core: Theory and validation

Based on theoretical arguments and empirical evidence we advocate the use of the lognormal distribution as a model for activity times. However, raw data on activity times are often subject to rounding and to the Parkinson effect. We address those factors in our statistical tests by using a generalized version of the Parkinson distribution with random censoring of earliness, ultimately validating our model with field data from several sources. We also confirm that project activities exhibit stochastic dependence that can be modeled by linear association.     

A fuzzy goal programming method with imprecise goal hierarchy

Two most widely used approaches to treating goals of different importance in goal programming (GP) are: (1) weighted GP, where importance of goals is modelled using weights, and (2) preemptive priority GP, where a goal hierarchy is specified implying infinite trade-offs among goals placed in different levels of importance. These approaches may be too restrictive in modelling of real life decision making problems. In this paper, a novel fuzzy goal programming method is proposed, where the hierarchical levels of the goals are imprecisely defined. The imprecise importance relations among the goals are modelled using fuzzy relations. An additive achievement function is defined, which takes into consideration both achievement degrees of the goals and degrees of satisfaction of the fuzzy importance relations. Examples are given to illustrate the proposed method.     

A new solution method for fuzzy chance constrained programming problem

This paper deals with an optimization model, where both fuzziness and randomness occur under one roof. The concept of fuzzy random variable (FRV), mean and variance of FRV is used in the model. In particular, the methodology is developed in the presence of FRV in the constraint. The methodology is verified through numerical examples.     

Tabu search for multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling with schedule-dependent setup times

In this paper, a multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling problem with schedule-dependent setup times is considered. A schedule-dependent setup time is defined as a setup time dependent on the assignment of resources to activities over time, when resources are, e.g., placed in different locations. In such a case, the time necessary to prepare the required resource for processing an activity depends not only on the sequence of activities but, more generally, on the locations in which successive activities are executed. Activities are non-preemptable, resources are renewable, and the objective is to minimize the project duration. A local search metaheuristic—tabu search is proposed to solve this strongly NP-hard problem, and it is compared with the multi-start iterative improvement method as well as with random sampling. A computational experiment is described, performed on a set of instances based on standard test problems constructed by the ProGen project generator. The algorithms are computationally compared, the results are analyzed and discussed, and some conclusions are given.     

Proactive heuristic procedures for robust project scheduling: An experimental analysis

Solution-robust project scheduling is a growing research field aiming at constructing proactive schedules to cope with multiple disruptions during project execution. When stochastic activity durations are considered, including time buffers between activities is a proven method to improve the stability of a baseline schedule.     

New models for shortest path problem with fuzzy arc lengths

This paper considers the shortest path problem with fuzzy arc lengths. According to different decision criteria, the concepts of expected shortest path, α-shortest path and the most shortest path in fuzzy environment are originally proposed, and three types of models are formulated. In order to solve these models, a hybrid intelligent algorithm integrating simulation and genetic algorithm is provided and some numerous examples are given to illustrate its effectiveness.