Robust portfolio optimization with copulas

Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is widely used in portfolio optimization as a measure of risk. CVaR is clearly dependent on the underlying probability distribution of the portfolio. We show how copulas can be introduced to any problem that involves distributions and how they can provide solutions for the modeling of the portfolio. We use this to provide the copula formulation of the CVaR of a portfolio. Given the critical dependence of CVaR on the underlying distribution, we use a robust framework to extend our approach to Worst Case CVaR (WCVaR). WCVaR is achieved through the use of rival copulas. These rival copulas have the advantage of exploiting a variety of dependence structures, symmetric and not. We compare our model against two other models, Gaussian CVaR and Worst Case Markowitz. Our empirical analysis shows that WCVaR can asses the risk more adequately than the two competitive models during periods of crisis.     

Robust optimization and portfolio selection: The cost of robustness

Robust optimization is a tractable alternative to stochastic programming particularly suited for problems in which parameter values are unknown, variable and their distributions are uncertain. We evaluate the cost of robustness for the robust counterpart to the maximum return portfolio optimization problem. The uncertainty of asset returns is modelled by polyhedral uncertainty sets as opposed to the earlier proposed ellipsoidal sets. We derive the robust model from a min-regret perspective and examine the properties of robust models with respect to portfolio composition. We investigate the effect of different definitions of the bounds on the uncertainty sets and show that robust models yield well diversified portfolios, in terms of the number of assets and asset weights.     

Robust ranking and portfolio optimization

The portfolio optimization problem has attracted researchers from many disciplines to resolve the issue of poor out-of-sample performance due to estimation errors in the expected returns. A practical method for portfolio construction is to use assets’ ordering information, expressed in the form of preferences over the stocks, instead of the exact expected returns. Due to the fact that the ranking itself is often described with uncertainty, we introduce a generic robust ranking model and apply it to portfolio optimization. In this problem, there are n objects whose ranking is in a discrete uncertainty set. We want to find a weight vector that maximizes some generic objective function for the worst realization of the ranking. This robust ranking problem is a mixed integer minimax problem and is very difficult to solve in general. To solve this robust ranking problem, we apply the constraint generation method, where constraints are efficiently generated by solving a network flow problem. For empirical tests, we use post-earnings-announcement drifts to obtain ranking uncertainty sets for the stocks in the DJIA index. We demonstrate that our robust portfolios produce smaller risk compared to their non-robust counterparts.     

Robust optimization for interactive multiobjective programming with imprecise information applied to R&D project portfolio selection

A multiobjective binary integer programming model for R&D project portfolio selection with competing objectives is developed when problem coefficients in both objective functions and constraints are uncertain. Robust optimization is used in dealing with uncertainty while an interactive procedure is used in making tradeoffs among the multiple objectives. Robust nondominated solutions are generated by solving the linearized counterpart of the robust augmented weighted Tchebycheff programs. A decision maker’s most preferred solution is identified in the interactive robust weighted Tchebycheff procedure by progressively eliciting and incorporating the decision maker’s preference information into the solution process. An example is presented to illustrate the solution approach and performance. The developed approach can also be applied to general multiobjective mixed integer programming problems.     

Second-order stochastic dominance constrained portfolio optimization: Theory and computational tests

Due to the definition of second-order stochastic dominance (SSD) in terms of utility theory, portfolio optimization with SSD constraints is of major practical interest. We contribute to the field in two ways: first, we present a self-contained theory with some new results and new proofs of known results; second, we perform a set of tests for computational efficiency. We provide new and simple arguments for the formulation of SSD constraints in a mathematical programming framework. For many individuals, an SSD constraint may seem too severe wherefore various relaxations (ASSD), have been proposed. We introduce yet another relaxation, directional SSD, where a candidate portfolio is admissible if a step from the benchmark in the direction of the candidate yields a dominating portfolio. Optimal step size depends on individual preferences reflected by the objective function. We compare computational efficiency of seven approaches for SD constrained portfolio problems, including SSD and ASSD constrained cases.     

Robust portfolio selection based on a multi-stage scenario tree

The aim of this paper is to apply the concept of robust optimization introduced by Bel-Tal and Nemirovski to the portfolio selection problems based on multi-stage scenario trees. The objective of our portfolio selection is to maximize an expected utility function value (or equivalently, to minimize an expected disutility function value) as in a classical stochastic programming problem, except that we allow for ambiguities to exist in the probability distributions along the scenario tree. We show that such a problem can be formulated as a finite convex program in the conic form, on which general convex optimization techniques can be applied. In particular, if there is no short-selling, and the disutility function takes the form of semi-variance downside risk, and all the parameter ambiguity sets are ellipsoidal, then the problem becomes a second order cone program, thus tractable. We use SeDuMi to solve the resulting robust portfolio selection problem, and the simulation results show that the robust consideration helps to reduce the variability of the optimal values caused by the parameter ambiguity.     

Robust global optimization with polynomials

We consider the optimization problems max_z∈Ω min_x∈K p(z, x) and min_{x ∈ K} max_{z ∈ Ω} p(z, x) where the criterion p is a polynomial, linear in the variables z, the set Ω can be described by LMIs, and K is a basic closed semi-algebraic set. The first problem is a robust analogue of the generic SDP problem max_{z ∈ Ω} p(z), whereas the second problem is a robust analogue of the generic problem min_{x ∈ K} p(x) of minimizing a polynomial over a semi-algebraic set. We show that the optimal values of both robust optimization problems can be approximated as closely as desired, by solving a hierarchy of SDP relaxations. We also relate and compare the SDP relaxations associated with the max-min and the min-max robust optimization problems.     

Quadratic programming for portfolio optimization

Portfolio optimization is a procedure for generating a portfolio composition which yields the highest return for a given level of risk or a minimum risk for given level of return. The problem can be formulated as a quadratic programming problem. We shall present a new and efficient optimization procedure taking advantage of the special structure of the portfolio selection problem. An example of its application to the traditional mean-variance method will be shown. Formulation of the procedure shows that the solution of the problem is vector intensive and fits well with the advanced architecture of recent computers, namely the vector processor.     

Dynamic portfolio optimization with risk control for absolute deviation model

In this paper, we present a new multiperiod portfolio selection with maximum absolute deviation model. The investor is assumed to seek an investment strategy to maximize his/her terminal wealth and minimize the risk. One typical feature is that the absolute deviation is employed as risk measure instead of classical mean variance method. Furthermore, risk control is considered in every period for the new model. An analytical optimal strategy is obtained in a closed form via dynamic programming method. Algorithm with some examples is also presented to illustrate the application of this model.     

Life insurance in a portfolio context

The ownership of life insurance may be modeled as a portfolio problem in which the return on the life insurance contract is negatively correlated with the return on a claim to future wage income. The mean-variance model developed in the paper uses such a framework to express the optimal amount of insurance in terms of two components: the expected value of the wage claim and the risk/return characteristics of the insurance contract. The model thus offers an appealing way to formulate the life insurance problem in a portfolio context. Implications of the model for the functioning of a life insurance market are examined and the existence of accidental death contracts is explained.     

Quadratic cone cutting surfaces for quadratic programs with on–off constraints

We study the convex hull of a set arising as a relaxation of difficult convex mixed integer quadratic programs (MIQP). We characterize the extreme points of the convex hull of the set and the extreme points of its continuous relaxation. We derive four quadratic cutting surfaces that improve the strength of the continuous relaxation. Each of the cutting surfaces is second-order-cone representable. Via a shooting experiment, we provide empirical evidence as to the importance of each inequality type in improving the relaxation. Computational results that employ the new cutting surfaces to strengthen the relaxation for MIQPs arising from portfolio optimization applications are promising.     

Linear-quadratic efficient frontiers for portfolio optimization

Finding portfolios with given mean return and minimal lower partial mean or variance, two risk criteria of interest in the theory of optimal portfolio selection, is a stochastic linear-quadratic program that can be converted to a large-scale linear or quadratic program when the asset returns are finitely distributed. These efficient frontiers can be computed on presently available platforms for problems of reasonable size; we discuss our experience with a problem involving one thousand assets. Asymptotic statistics for stochastic programs can be applied to justify sampling as a means to approximate continuous distributions by finite distributions.     

Multi-period stochastic portfolio optimization: Block-separable decomposition

We consider a multiperiod stochastic programming recourse model for stock portfolio optimization. The presence of various risk and policy constraints leads to significant period-by-period linkage in the model. Furthermore, the dimensionality of the model is large due to many securities under consideration. We propose exploiting block separable recourse structure as well as methods of inducing such structure within nested L-shaped decomposition. We test the model and solution methodology with a base consisting of the Standard & Poor 100 stocks and experiment with several variants of the block separable technique. These are then compared to the standard nested period-by-period decomposition algorithm. It turns out that for financial optimization models of the kind that are discussed in this paper, significant computational efficiencies can be gained with the proposed methodology.     

Short sales in Log-robust portfolio management

This paper extends the Log-robust portfolio management approach to the case with short sales, i.e., the case where the manager can sell shares he does not yet own. We model the continuously compounded rates of return, which have been established in the literature as the true drivers of uncertainty, as uncertain parameters belonging to polyhedral uncertainty sets, and maximize the worst-case portfolio wealth over that set in a one-period setting. The degree of the manager’s aversion to ambiguity is incorporated through a single, intuitive parameter, which determines the size of the uncertainty set. The presence of short-selling requires the development of problem-specific techniques, because the optimization problem is not convex. In the case where assets are independent, we show that the robust optimization problem can be solved exactly as a series of linear programming problems; as a result, the approach remains tractable for large numbers of assets. We also provide insights into the structure of the optimal solution. In the case of correlated assets, we develop and test a heuristic where correlation is maintained only between assets invested in. In computational experiments, the proposed approach exhibits superior performance to that of the traditional robust approach.     

Solving non-linear portfolio optimization problems with the primal-dual interior point method

Stochastic programming is recognized as a powerful tool to help decision making under uncertainty in financial planning. The deterministic equivalent formulations of these stochastic programs have huge dimensions even for moderate numbers of assets, time stages and scenarios per time stage. So far models treated by mathematical programming approaches have been limited to simple linear or quadratic models due to the inability of currently available solvers to solve NLP problems of typical sizes. However stochastic programming problems are highly structured. The key to the efficient solution of such problems is therefore the ability to exploit their structure. Interior point methods are well-suited to the solution of very large non-linear optimization problems. In this paper we exploit this feature and show how portfolio optimization problems with sizes measured in millions of constraints and decision variables, featuring constraints on semi-variance, skewness or non-linear utility functions in the objective, can be solved with the state-of-the-art solver.     

Robust combinatorial optimization with variable cost uncertainty

We present in this paper a new model for robust combinatorial optimization with cost uncertainty that generalizes the classical budgeted uncertainty set. We suppose here that the budget of uncertainty is given by a function of the problem variables, yielding an uncertainty multifunction. The new model is less conservative than the classical model and approximates better Value-at-Risk objective functions, especially for vectors with few non-zero components. An example of budget function is constructed from the probabilistic bounds computed by Bertsimas and Sim. We provide an asymptotically tight bound for the cost reduction obtained with the new model. We turn then to the tractability of the resulting optimization problems. We show that when the budget function is affine, the resulting optimization problems can be solved by solving n+1$n+1$ deterministic problems. We propose combinatorial algorithms to handle problems with more general budget functions. We also adapt existing dynamic programming algorithms to solve faster the robust counterparts of optimization problems, which can be applied both to the traditional budgeted uncertainty model and to our new model. We evaluate numerically the reduction in the price of robustness obtained with the new model on the shortest path problem and on a survivable network design problem.     

Risk-adjusted probability measures in portfolio optimization with coherent measures of risk

We consider the problem of optimizing a portfolio of n assets, whose returns are described by a joint discrete distribution. We formulate the mean–risk model, using as risk functionals the semideviation, deviation from quantile, and spectral risk measures. Using the modern theory of measures of risk, we derive an equivalent representation of the portfolio problem as a zero-sum matrix game, and we provide ways to solve it by convex optimization techniques. In this way, we reconstruct new probability measures which constitute part of the saddle point of the game. These risk-adjusted measures always exist, irrespective of the completeness of the market. We provide an illustrative example, in which we derive these measures in a universe of 200 assets and we use them to evaluate the market portfolio and optimal risk-averse portfolios.     

Computational methods in lattice-subspaces of with applications in portfolio insurance

In this article, we develop a computational method for an algorithmic process first posed by Polyrakis in 1996 in order to check whether a finite collection of linearly independent positive functions in C[a,b] forms a lattice-subspace. Lattice-subspaces are closely related to a cost minimization problem in the theory of finance that ensures the minimum-cost insured portfolio and this connection is further investigated here. Finally, we propose a computational method in order to solve the minimization problem and to calculate the minimum-cost insured portfolio. All of the numerical work is performed using the Matlab high-level language.     

Robust linear optimization under general norms

We explicitly characterize the robust counterpart of a linear programming problem with uncertainty set described by an arbitrary norm. Our approach encompasses several approaches from the literature and provides guarantees for constraint violation under probabilistic models that allow arbitrary dependencies in the distribution of the uncertain coefficients.     

Robust inverse optimization

Given an observation of a decision-maker’s uncertain behavior, we develop a robust inverse optimization model for imputing an objective function that is robust against mis-specifications of the behavior. We characterize the inversely optimized cost vectors for uncertainty sets that may or may not intersect the feasible region, and propose tractable solution methods for special cases. We demonstrate the proposed model in the context of diet recommendation.