Opinion Dynamics with Higher-Order Bounded Confidence

The higher-order interactions in complex systems are gaining attention. Extending the classic bounded confidence model where an agent’s opinion update is the average opinion of its peers, this paper proposes a higher-order version of the bounded confidence model. Each agent organizes a group opinion discussion among its peers. Then, the discussion’s result influences all participants’ opinions. Since an agent is also the peer of its peers, the agent actually participates in multiple group discussions. We assume the agent’s opinion update is the average over multiple group discussions. The opinion dynamics rules can be arbitrary in each discussion. In this work, we experiment with two discussion rules: centralized and decentralized. We show that the centralized rule is equivalent to the classic bounded confidence model. The decentralized rule, however, can promote opinion consensus. In need of modeling specific real-life scenarios, the higher-order bounded confidence is more convenient to combine with other higher-order interactions, from the contagion process to evolutionary dynamics.     

A Hybrid Opinion Formation and Polarization Model

The last decade has witnessed a great number of opinion formation models that depict the evolution of opinions within a social group and make predictions about the evolution process. In the traditional formulation of opinion evolution such as the DeGroot model, an agent’s opinion is represented as a real number and updated by taking a weighted average of its neighbour’s opinions. In this paper, we adopt a hybrid representation of opinions that integrate both the discrete and continuous nature of an opinion. Basically, an agent has a ‘Yes’, ‘Neutral’ or ‘No’ opinion on some issues of interest and associates with its Yes opinion a support degree which captures how strongly it supports the opinion. With such a rich representation, not only can we study the evolution of opinion but also that of support degree. After all, an agent’s opinion can stay the same but become more or less supportive of it. Changes in the support degree are progressive in nature and only a sufficient accumulation of such a progressive change will result in a change of opinion say from Yes to No. Hence, in our formulation, after an agent interacts with another, its support degree is either strengthened or weakened by a predefined amount and a change of opinion may occur as a consequence of such progressive changes. We carry out simulations to evaluate the impacts of key model parameters including (1) the number of agents, (2) the distribution of initial support degrees and (3) the amount of change of support degree changes in a single interaction. Last but not least, we present several extensions to the hybrid and progressive model which lead to opinion polarization.     

Role of Time Scales in the Coupled Epidemic-Opinion Dynamics on Multiplex Networks

Modelling the epidemic’s spread on multiplex networks, considering complex human behaviours, has recently gained the attention of many scientists. In this work, we study the interplay between epidemic spreading and opinion dynamics on multiplex networks. An agent in the epidemic layer could remain in one of five distinct states, resulting in the SIRQD model. The agent’s attitude towards respecting the restrictions of the pandemic plays a crucial role in its prevalence. In our model, the agent’s point of view could be altered by either conformism mechanism, social pressure, or independent actions. As the underlying opinion model, we leverage the q-voter model. The entire system constitutes a coupled opinion–dynamic model where two distinct processes occur. The question arises of how to properly align these dynamics, i.e., whether they should possess equal or disparate timescales. This paper highlights the impact of different timescales of opinion dynamics on epidemic spreading, focusing on the time and the infection’s peak.     

Biology,Buddhism, and AI: Care as the Driver of Intelligence

Intelligence is a central feature of human beings’ primary and interpersonal experience. Understanding how intelligence originated and scaled during evolution is a key challenge for modern biology. Some of the most important approaches to understanding intelligence are the ongoing efforts to build new intelligences in computer science (AI) and bioengineering. However, progress has been stymied by a lack of multidisciplinary consensus on what is central about intelligence regardless of the details of its material composition or origin (evolved vs. engineered). We show that Buddhist concepts offer a unique perspective and facilitate a consilience of biology, cognitive science, and computer science toward understanding intelligence in truly diverse embodiments. In coming decades, chimeric and bioengineering technologies will produce a wide variety of novel beings that look nothing like familiar natural life forms; how shall we gauge their moral responsibility and our own moral obligations toward them, without the familiar touchstones of standard evolved forms as comparison? Such decisions cannot be based on what the agent is made of or how much design vs. natural evolution was involved in their origin. We propose that the scope of our potential relationship with, and so also our moral duty toward, any being can be considered in the light of Care—a robust, practical, and dynamic lynchpin that formalizes the concepts of goal-directedness, stress, and the scaling of intelligence; it provides a rubric that, unlike other current concepts, is likely to not only survive but thrive in the coming advances of AI and bioengineering. We review relevant concepts in basal cognition and Buddhist thought, focusing on the size of an agent’s goal space (its cognitive light cone) as an invariant that tightly links intelligence and compassion. Implications range across interpersonal psychology, regenerative medicine, and machine learning. The Bodhisattva’s vow (“for the sake of all sentient life, I shall achieve awakening”) is a practical design principle for advancing intelligence in our novel creations and in ourselves.     

Onset of the Mach Reflection of Zel’dovich–von Neumann–Döring Detonations

The present study investigates the similarity problem associated with the onset of the Mach reflection of Zel’dovich–von Neumann–Döring (ZND) detonations in the near field. The results reveal that the self-similarity in the frozen-limit regime is strictly valid only within a small scale, i.e., of the order of the induction length. The Mach reflection becomes non-self-similar during the transition of the Mach stem from “frozen” to “reactive” by coupling with the reaction zone. The triple-point trajectory first rises from the self-similar result due to compressive waves generated by the “hot spot”, and then decays after establishment of the reactive Mach stem. It is also found, by removing the restriction, that the frozen limit can be extended to a much larger distance than expected. The obtained results elucidate the physical origin of the onset of Mach reflection with chemical reactions, which has previously been observed in both experiments and numerical simulations.     

Analytical and Numerical Treatment of Continuous Ageing in the Voter Model

The conventional voter model is modified so that an agent’s switching rate depends on the ‘age’ of the agent—that is, the time since the agent last switched opinion. In contrast to previous work, age is continuous in the present model. We show how the resulting individual-based system with non-Markovian dynamics and concentration-dependent rates can be handled both computationally and analytically. The thinning algorithm of Lewis and Shedler can be modified in order to provide an efficient simulation method. Analytically, we demonstrate how the asymptotic approach to an absorbing state (consensus) can be deduced. We discuss three special cases of the age-dependent switching rate: one in which the concentration of voters can be approximated by a fractional differential equation, another for which the approach to consensus is exponential in time, and a third case in which the system reaches a frozen state instead of consensus. Finally, we include the effects of a spontaneous change of opinion, i.e., we study a noisy voter model with continuous ageing. We demonstrate that this can give rise to a continuous transition between coexistence and consensus phases. We also show how the stationary probability distribution can be approximated, despite the fact that the system cannot be described by a conventional master equation.     

Quantifying Reinforcement-Learning Agent’s Autonomy,Reliance on Memory and Internalisation of the Environment

Intuitively, the level of autonomy of an agent is related to the degree to which the agent’s goals and behaviour are decoupled from the immediate control by the environment. Here, we capitalise on a recent information-theoretic formulation of autonomy and introduce an algorithm for calculating autonomy in a limiting process of time step approaching infinity. We tackle the question of how the autonomy level of an agent changes during training. In particular, in this work, we use the partial information decomposition (PID) framework to monitor the levels of autonomy and environment internalisation of reinforcement-learning (RL) agents. We performed experiments on two environments: a grid world, in which the agent has to collect food, and a repeating-pattern environment, in which the agent has to learn to imitate a sequence of actions by memorising the sequence. PID also allows us to answer how much the agent relies on its internal memory (versus how much it relies on the observations) when transitioning to its next internal state. The experiments show that specific terms of PID strongly correlate with the obtained reward and with the agent’s behaviour against perturbations in the observations.     

Statistical Mechanics of Political Polarization

Rapidly increasing political polarization threatens democracies around the world. Scholars from several disciplines are assessing and modeling polarization antecedents, processes, and consequences. Social systems are complex and networked. Their constant shifting hinders attempts to trace causes of observed trends, predict their consequences, or mitigate them. We propose an equivalent-neighbor model of polarization dynamics. Using statistical physics techniques, we generate anticipatory scenarios and examine whether leadership and/or external events alleviate or exacerbate polarization. We consider three highly polarized USA groups: Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. We assume that in each group, each individual has a political stance s ranging between left and right. We quantify the noise in this system as a “social temperature” T. Using energy E, we describe individuals’ interactions in time within their own group and with individuals of the other groups. It depends on the stance s as well as on three intra-group and six inter-group coupling parameters. We compute the probability distributions of stances at any time using the Boltzmann probability weight exp(−E/T). We generate average group-stance scenarios in time and explore whether concerted interventions or unexpected shocks can alter them. The results inform on the perils of continuing the current polarization trends, as well as on possibilities of changing course.     

Information and Self-Organization II: Steady State and Phase Transition

This paper starts from Schrödinger’s famous question “what is life” and elucidates answers that invoke, in particular, Friston’s free energy principle and its relation to the method of Bayesian inference and to Synergetics 2nd foundation that utilizes Jaynes’ maximum entropy principle. Our presentation reflects the shift from the emphasis on physical principles to principles of information theory and Synergetics. In view of the expected general audience of this issue, we have chosen a somewhat tutorial style that does not require special knowledge on physics but familiarizes the reader with concepts rooted in information theory and Synergetics.     

Fuzzy Representation of Principal’s Preferences in Inspire Negotiation Support System

We consider the negotiation problem, in which an agent negotiates on behalf of a principal. Our considerations are focused on the Inspire negotiation support system in which the principal’s preferences are visualised by circles. In this way, the principal describes the importance of each negotiation issue and the relative utility of each considered option. The paper proposes how this preference information may be implemented by the agent for determining a scoring function used to support decisions throughout the negotiation process. The starting point of our considerations is a discussion regarding the visualisation of the principal’s preferences. We assume here that the importance of each issue and the utility of each option increases with the size of the circle representing them. The imprecise meaning of the notion of “circle size” implies that in a considered case, the utility of an option should be evaluated by a fuzzy number. The proposed utility fuzzification is justified by a simple analysis of results obtained from the empirical prenegotiation experiment. A novel method is proposed to determine trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, which evaluates an option’s utility using a series of answers given by the participants of the experiment. The utilities obtained this way are applied to determine the fuzzy scoring function for an agent. By determining such a common generalised fuzzy scoring system, our approach helps agents handle the differences in human cognitive processes associated with understanding the principal’s preferences. This work is the first approach to fuzzification of the preferences in the Inspire negotiation support system.     

Information,Entropy, Life,and the Universe

In 2015, I wrote a book with the same title as this article. The book’s subtitle is: “What we know and what we do not know.” On the book’s dedication page, I wrote: “This book is dedicated to readers of popular science books who are baffled, perplexed, puzzled, astonished, confused, and discombobulated by reading about Information, Entropy, Life and the Universe.” In the first part of this article, I will present the definitions of two central concepts: the “Shannon measure of information” (SMI), in Information Theory, and “Entropy”, in Thermodynamics. Following these definitions, I will discuss the framework of their applicability. In the second part of the article, I will examine the question of whether living systems and the entire universe are, or are not within the framework of applicability of the concepts of SMI and Entropy. I will show that much of the confusion that exists in the literature arises because of people’s ignorance about the framework of applicability of these concepts.     

Analysis of Energy Dissipation of Interval-Pooled Stepped Spillways

The water flow characteristics over an interval-pooled stepped spillway are investigated by combining the renormalization group (RNG) k-ε turbulence model with the volume of fluid (VOF) interface capture technique in the present study. The results show that the energy dissipation performance of the interval-pooled stepped spillway was generally better than that of the pooled, stepped spillways and the traditional flat-panel stepped spillway. The omega vortex intensity identification method is introduced to evaluate the energy dissipation. Due to the formation of “pseudo-weir”, the energy dissipation did not increase with the growth of the pool’s height. In addition, the average vortex intensity can characterize the dissipation rate to some extent.     

Research on the Prediction of A-Share “High Stock Dividend” Phenomenon—A Feature Adaptive Improved Multi-Layers Ensemble Model

Since the “high stock dividend” of A-share companies in China often leads to the short-term stock price increase, this phenomenon’s prediction has been widely concerned by academia and industry. In this study, a new multi-layer stacking ensemble algorithm is proposed. Unlike the classic stacking ensemble algorithm that focused on the differentiation of base models, this paper used the equal weight comprehensive feature evaluation method to select features before predicting the base model and used a genetic algorithm to match the optimal feature subset for each base model. After the base model’s output prediction, the LightGBM (LGB) model was added to the algorithm as a secondary information extraction layer. Finally, the algorithm inputs the extracted information into the Logistic Regression (LR) model to complete the prediction of the “high stock dividend” phenomenon. Using the A-share market data from 2010 to 2019 for simulation and evaluation, the proposed model improves the AUC (Area Under Curve) and F1 score by 0.173 and 0.303, respectively, compared to the baseline model. The prediction results shed light on event-driven investment strategies.     

Message Passing-Based Inference for Time-Varying Autoregressive Models

Time-varying autoregressive (TVAR) models are widely used for modeling of non-stationary signals. Unfortunately, online joint adaptation of both states and parameters in these models remains a challenge. In this paper, we represent the TVAR model by a factor graph and solve the inference problem by automated message passing-based inference for states and parameters. We derive structured variational update rules for a composite “AR node” with probabilistic observations that can be used as a plug-in module in hierarchical models, for example, to model the time-varying behavior of the hyper-parameters of a time-varying AR model. Our method includes tracking of variational free energy (FE) as a Bayesian measure of TVAR model performance. The proposed methods are verified on a synthetic data set and validated on real-world data from temperature modeling and speech enhancement tasks.     

A New Family of Continuous Probability Distributions

In this paper, a new parametric compound G family of continuous probability distributions called the Poisson generalized exponential G (PGEG) family is derived and studied. Relevant mathematical properties are derived. Some new bivariate G families using the theorems of “Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern copula”, “the modified Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern copula”, “the Clayton copula”, and “the Renyi’s entropy copula” are presented. Many special members are derived, and a special attention is devoted to the exponential and the one parameter Pareto type II model. The maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the model parameters. A graphical simulation is performed to assess the finite sample behavior of the estimators of the maximum likelihood method. Two real-life data applications are proposed to illustrate the importance of the new family.     

A Time-Symmetric Formulation of Quantum Entanglement

I numerically simulate and compare the entanglement of two quanta using the conventional formulation of quantum mechanics and a time-symmetric formulation that has no collapse postulate. The experimental predictions of the two formulations are identical, but the entanglement predictions are significantly different. The time-symmetric formulation reveals an experimentally testable discrepancy in the original quantum analysis of the Hanbury Brown–Twiss experiment, suggests solutions to some parts of the nonlocality and measurement problems, fixes known time asymmetries in the conventional formulation, and answers Bell’s question “How do you convert an ’and’ into an ’or’?”     

Multifractality through Non-Markovian Stochastic Processes in the Scale Relativity Theory. Acute Arterial Occlusions as Scale Transitions

By assimilating biological systems, both structural and functional, into multifractal objects, their behavior can be described in the framework of the scale relativity theory, in any of its forms (standard form in Nottale’s sense and/or the form of the multifractal theory of motion). By operating in the context of the multifractal theory of motion, based on multifractalization through non-Markovian stochastic processes, the main results of Nottale’s theory can be generalized (specific momentum conservation laws, both at differentiable and non-differentiable resolution scales, specific momentum conservation law associated with the differentiable–non-differentiable scale transition, etc.). In such a context, all results are explicated through analyzing biological processes, such as acute arterial occlusions as scale transitions. Thus, we show through a biophysical multifractal model that the blocking of the lumen of a healthy artery can happen as a result of the “stopping effect” associated with the differentiable-non-differentiable scale transition. We consider that blood entities move on continuous but non-differentiable (multifractal) curves. We determine the biophysical parameters that characterize the blood flow as a Bingham-type rheological fluid through a normal arterial structure assimilated with a horizontal “pipe” with circular symmetry. Our model has been validated based on experimental clinical data.     

Equilibration and “Thermalization” in the Adapted Caldeira–Leggett Model

I explore the processes of equilibration exhibited by the Adapted Caldeira–Leggett (ACL) model, a small unitary “toy model” developed for numerical studies of quantum decoherence between an SHO and an environment. I demonstrate how dephasing allows equilibration to occur in a wide variety of situations. While the finite model size and other “unphysical” aspects prevent the notions of temperature and thermalization from being generally applicable, certain primitive aspects of thermalization can be realized for particular parameter values. I link the observed behaviors to intrinsic properties of the global energy eigenstates, and argue that the phenomena I observe contain elements which might be key ingredients that lead to ergodic behavior in larger more realistic systems. The motivations for this work range from curiosity about phenomena observed in earlier calculations with the ACL model to much larger questions related to the nature of equilibrium, thermalization, and the emergence of physical laws.     

Epistemic Communities under Active Inference

The spread of ideas is a fundamental concern of today’s news ecology. Understanding the dynamics of the spread of information and its co-option by interested parties is of critical importance. Research on this topic has shown that individuals tend to cluster in echo-chambers and are driven by confirmation bias. In this paper, we leverage the active inference framework to provide an in silico model of confirmation bias and its effect on echo-chamber formation. We build a model based on active inference, where agents tend to sample information in order to justify their own view of reality, which eventually leads to them to have a high degree of certainty about their own beliefs. We show that, once agents have reached a certain level of certainty about their beliefs, it becomes very difficult to get them to change their views. This system of self-confirming beliefs is upheld and reinforced by the evolving relationship between an agent’s beliefs and observations, which over time will continue to provide evidence for their ingrained ideas about the world. The epistemic communities that are consolidated by these shared beliefs, in turn, tend to produce perceptions of reality that reinforce those shared beliefs. We provide an active inference account of this community formation mechanism. We postulate that agents are driven by the epistemic value that they obtain from sampling or observing the behaviours of other agents. Inspired by digital social networks like Twitter, we build a generative model in which agents generate observable social claims or posts (e.g., ‘tweets’) while reading the socially observable claims of other agents that lend support to one of two mutually exclusive abstract topics. Agents can choose which other agent they pay attention to at each timestep, and crucially who they attend to and what they choose to read influences their beliefs about the world. Agents also assess their local network’s perspective, influencing which kinds of posts they expect to see other agents making. The model was built and simulated using the freely available Python package pymdp. The proposed active inference model can reproduce the formation of echo-chambers over social networks, and gives us insight into the cognitive processes that lead to this phenomenon.     

Pareto and Boltzmann-Gibbs behaviors in a deterministic multi-agent system

A deterministic system of interacting agents is considered as a model for economic dynamics. The dynamics of the system is described by a coupled map lattice with nearest neighbor interactions. The evolution of each agent results from the competition between two factors: the agent’s own tendency to grow and the environmental influence that moderates this growth. Depending on the values of the parameters that control these factors, the system can display Pareto or Boltzmann-Gibbs statistical behaviors in its asymptotic dynamical regime. The regions where these behaviors appear are calculated on the space of parameters of the system. Other statistical properties, such as the mean wealth, the standard deviation, and the Gini coefficient characterizing the degree of equity in the wealth distribution are also calculated.