Active Inference: Applicability to Different Types of Social Organization Explained through Reference to Industrial Engineering and Quality Management

Active inference is a physics of life process theory of perception, action and learning that is applicable to natural and artificial agents. In this paper, active inference theory is related to different types of practice in social organization. Here, the term social organization is used to clarify that this paper does not encompass organization in biological systems. Rather, the paper addresses active inference in social organization that utilizes industrial engineering, quality management, and artificial intelligence alongside human intelligence. Social organization referred to in this paper can be in private companies, public institutions, other for-profit or not-for-profit organizations, and any combination of them. The relevance of active inference theory is explained in terms of variational free energy, prediction errors, generative models, and Markov blankets. Active inference theory is most relevant to the social organization of work that is highly repetitive. By contrast, there are more challenges involved in applying active inference theory for social organization of less repetitive endeavors such as one-of-a-kind projects. These challenges need to be addressed in order for active inference to provide a unifying framework for different types of social organization employing human and artificial intelligence.     

Future-Proofing Startups: Stress Management Principles Based on Adaptive Calibration Model and Active Inference Theory

In this paper, the Adaptive Calibration Model (ACM) and Active Inference Theory (AIT) are related to future-proofing startups. ACM encompasses the allocation of energy by the stress response system to alternative options for action, depending upon individuals’ life histories and changing external contexts. More broadly, within AIT, it is posited that humans survive by taking action to align their internal generative models with sensory inputs from external states. The first contribution of the paper is to address the need for future-proofing methods for startups by providing eight stress management principles based on ACM and AIT. Future-proofing methods are needed because, typically, nine out of ten startups do not survive. A second contribution is to relate ACM and AIT to startup life cycle stages. The third contribution is to provide practical examples that show the broader relevance ACM and AIT to organizational practice. These contributions go beyond previous literature concerned with entrepreneurial stress and organizational stress. In particular, rather than focusing on particular stressors, this paper is focused on the recalibrating/updating of startups’ stress responsivity patterns in relation to changes in the internal state of the startup and/or changes in the external state. Overall, the paper makes a contribution to relating physics of life constructs concerned with energy, action and ecological fitness to human organizations.     

Neural Dynamics under Active Inference: Plausibility and Efficiency of Information Processing

Active inference is a normative framework for explaining behaviour under the free energy principle—a theory of self-organisation originating in neuroscience. It specifies neuronal dynamics for state-estimation in terms of a descent on (variational) free energy—a measure of the fit between an internal (generative) model and sensory observations. The free energy gradient is a prediction error—plausibly encoded in the average membrane potentials of neuronal populations. Conversely, the expected probability of a state can be expressed in terms of neuronal firing rates. We show that this is consistent with current models of neuronal dynamics and establish face validity by synthesising plausible electrophysiological responses. We then show that these neuronal dynamics approximate natural gradient descent, a well-known optimisation algorithm from information geometry that follows the steepest descent of the objective in information space. We compare the information length of belief updating in both schemes, a measure of the distance travelled in information space that has a direct interpretation in terms of metabolic cost. We show that neural dynamics under active inference are metabolically efficient and suggest that neural representations in biological agents may evolve by approximating steepest descent in information space towards the point of optimal inference.     

Variational Message Passing and Local Constraint Manipulation in Factor Graphs

Accurate evaluation of Bayesian model evidence for a given data set is a fundamental problem in model development. Since evidence evaluations are usually intractable, in practice variational free energy (VFE) minimization provides an attractive alternative, as the VFE is an upper bound on negative model log-evidence (NLE). In order to improve tractability of the VFE, it is common to manipulate the constraints in the search space for the posterior distribution of the latent variables. Unfortunately, constraint manipulation may also lead to a less accurate estimate of the NLE. Thus, constraint manipulation implies an engineering trade-off between tractability and accuracy of model evidence estimation. In this paper, we develop a unifying account of constraint manipulation for variational inference in models that can be represented by a (Forney-style) factor graph, for which we identify the Bethe Free Energy as an approximation to the VFE. We derive well-known message passing algorithms from first principles, as the result of minimizing the constrained Bethe Free Energy (BFE). The proposed method supports evaluation of the BFE in factor graphs for model scoring and development of new message passing-based inference algorithms that potentially improve evidence estimation accuracy.     

Multiscale Free Energy Analysis of Human Ecosystem Engineering

Unlike ecosystem engineering by other living things, which brings a relatively limited range of sensations that are connected to a few enduring survival preferences, human ecosystem engineering brings an increasing variety and frequency of novel sensations. Many of these novel sensations can quickly become preferences as they indicate that human life will be less strenuous and more stimulating. Furthermore, they can soon become addictive. By contrast, unwanted surprise from these novel sensations may become apparent decades later. This recognition can come after the survival of millions of humans and other species has been undermined. In this paper, it is explained that, while multiscale free energy provides a useful hypothesis for framing human ecosystem engineering, disconnects between preferences and survival from human ecosystem engineering limit the application of current assumptions that underlie continuous state-space and discrete state-space modelling of active inference.     

Physical limits of inference

We show that physical devices that perform observation, prediction, or recollection share an underlying mathematical structure. We call devices with that structure “inference devices”. We present a set of existence and impossibility results concerning inference devices. These results hold independent of the precise physical laws governing our universe. In a limited sense, the impossibility results establish that Laplace was wrong to claim that even in a classical, non-chaotic universe the future can be unerringly predicted, given sufficient knowledge of the present. Alternatively, these impossibility results can be viewed as a non-quantum-mechanical “uncertainty principle”.The mathematics of inference devices has close connections to the mathematics of Turing Machines (TMs). In particular, the impossibility results for inference devices are similar to the Halting theorem for TMs. Furthermore, one can define an analog of Universal TMs (UTMs) for inference devices. We call those analogs “strong inference devices”. We use strong inference devices to define the “inference complexity” of an inference task, which is the analog of the Kolmogorov complexity of computing a string. A task-independent bound is derived on how much the inference complexity of an inference task can differ for two different inference devices. This is analogous to the “encoding” bound governing how much the Kolmogorov complexity of a string can differ between two UTMs used to compute that string. However no universe can contain more than one strong inference device. So whereas the Kolmogorov complexity of a string is arbitrary up to specification of the UTM, there is no such arbitrariness in the inference complexity of an inference task.We informally discuss the philosophical implications of these results, e.g., for whether the universe “is” a computer. We also derive some graph-theoretic properties governing any set of multiple inference devices. We also present an extension of the framework to address physical devices used for control. We end with an extension of the framework to address probabilistic inference.     

How particular is the physics of the free energy principle?

The free energy principle (FEP) states that any dynamical system can be interpreted as performing Bayesian inference upon its surrounding environment. Although, in theory, the FEP applies to a wide variety of systems, there has been almost no direct exploration or demonstration of the principle in concrete systems. In this work, we examine in depth the assumptions required to derive the FEP in the simplest possible set of systems – weakly-coupled non-equilibrium linear stochastic systems. Specifically, we explore (i) how general the requirements imposed on the statistical structure of a system are and (ii) how informative the FEP is about the behaviour of such systems. We discover that two requirements of the FEP – the Markov blanket condition (i.e. a statistical boundary precluding direct coupling between internal and external states) and stringent restrictions on its solenoidal flows (i.e. tendencies driving a system out of equilibrium) – are only valid for a very narrow space of parameters. Suitable systems require an absence of perception-action asymmetries that is highly unusual for living systems interacting with an environment. More importantly, we observe that a mathematically central step in the argument, connecting the behaviour of a system to variational inference, relies on an implicit equivalence between the dynamics of the average states of a system with the average of the dynamics of those states. This equivalence does not hold in general even for linear stochastic systems, since it requires an effective decoupling from the system's history of interactions. These observations are critical for evaluating the generality and applicability of the FEP and indicate the existence of significant problems of the theory in its current form. These issues make the FEP, as it stands, not straightforwardly applicable to the simple linear systems studied here and suggest that more development is needed before the theory could be applied to the kind of complex systems that describe living and cognitive processes.     

The Markov blanket trick: On the scope of the free energy principle and active inference

The free energy principle (FEP) has been presented as a unified brain theory, as a general principle for the self-organization of biological systems, and most recently as a principle for a theory of every thing. Additionally, active inference has been proposed as the process theory entailed by FEP that is able to model the full range of biological and cognitive events. In this paper, we challenge these two claims. We argue that FEP is not the general principle it is claimed to be, and that active inference is not the all-encompassing process theory it is purported to be either. The core aspects of our argumentation are that (i) FEP is just a way to generalize Bayesian inference to all domains by the use of a Markov blanket formalism, a generalization we call the Markov blanket trick; and that (ii) active inference presupposes successful perception and action instead of explaining them.     

On Epistemics in Expected Free Energy for Linear Gaussian State Space Models

Active Inference (AIF) is a framework that can be used both to describe information processing in naturally intelligent systems, such as the human brain, and to design synthetic intelligent systems (agents). In this paper we show that Expected Free Energy (EFE) minimisation, a core feature of the framework, does not lead to purposeful explorative behaviour in linear Gaussian dynamical systems. We provide a simple proof that, due to the specific construction used for the EFE, the terms responsible for the exploratory (epistemic) drive become constant in the case of linear Gaussian systems. This renders AIF equivalent to KL control. From a theoretical point of view this is an interesting result since it is generally assumed that EFE minimisation will always introduce an exploratory drive in AIF agents. While the full EFE objective does not lead to exploration in linear Gaussian dynamical systems, the principles of its construction can still be used to design objectives that include an epistemic drive. We provide an in-depth analysis of the mechanics behind the epistemic drive of AIF agents and show how to design objectives for linear Gaussian dynamical systems that do include an epistemic drive. Concretely, we show that focusing solely on epistemics and dispensing with goal-directed terms leads to a form of maximum entropy exploration that is heavily dependent on the type of control signals driving the system. Additive controls do not permit such exploration. From a practical point of view this is an important result since linear Gaussian dynamical systems with additive controls are an extensively used model class, encompassing for instance Linear Quadratic Gaussian controllers. On the other hand, linear Gaussian dynamical systems driven by multiplicative controls such as switching transition matrices do permit an exploratory drive.     

A Technical Critique of Some Parts of the Free Energy Principle

We summarize the original formulation of the free energy principle and highlight some technical issues. We discuss how these issues affect related results involving generalised coordinates and, where appropriate, mention consequences for and reveal, up to now unacknowledged, differences from newer formulations of the free energy principle. In particular, we reveal that various definitions of the “Markov blanket” proposed in different works are not equivalent. We show that crucial steps in the free energy argument, which involve rewriting the equations of motion of systems with Markov blankets, are not generally correct without additional (previously unstated) assumptions. We prove by counterexamples that the original free energy lemma, when taken at face value, is wrong. We show further that this free energy lemma, when it does hold, implies the equality of variational density and ergodic conditional density. The interpretation in terms of Bayesian inference hinges on this point, and we hence conclude that it is not sufficiently justified. Additionally, we highlight that the variational densities presented in newer formulations of the free energy principle and lemma are parametrised by different variables than in older works, leading to a substantially different interpretation of the theory. Note that we only highlight some specific problems in the discussed publications. These problems do not rule out conclusively that the general ideas behind the free energy principle are worth pursuing.     

Maximum length sequence and Bessel diffusers using active technologies

Active technologies can enable room acoustic diffusers to operate over a wider bandwidth than passive devices, by extending the bass response. Active impedance control can be used to generate surface impedance distributions which cause wavefront dispersion, as opposed to the more normal absorptive or pressure-cancelling target functions. This paper details the development of two new types of active diffusers which are difficult, if not impossible, to make as passive wide-band structures. The first type is a maximum length sequence diffuser where the well depths are designed to be frequency dependent to avoid the critical frequencies present in the passive device, and so achieve performance over a finite-bandwidth. The second is a Bessel diffuser, which exploits concepts developed for transducer arrays to form a hybrid absorber–diffuser. Details of the designs are given, and measurements of scattering and impedance used to show that the active diffusers are operating correctly over a bandwidth of about 100 Hz to 1.1 kHz. Boundary element method simulation is used to show how more application-realistic arrays of these devices would behave.     

Study on information transmission model of enterprise informal organizations based on the hypernetwork

Different kinds of organizations usually possess more than one informal organizations, and the new informal organization constantly appears in the organization. This paper examines the hypergraph-based hypernetwork topological structure of the informal organizations in a high-tech enterprise. It regards the informal organizational member as the node, and the informal organization as the hyperedge. Afterward, this study continues with four information transmission pathway models that are constructed based on the idea of the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemic model. It provides the schematic diagram of the time evolution of the information transmission in the enterprise. Moreover, the information transmission ability of the informal organizational hypernetwork in the enterprise is measured. Finally, the results are analyzed and specific advices and measures are put forward. This study shows that it is appropriate to depict the relationships between the members and the informal organizations by using hypernetwork method. The work presented here sheds light on the regularities in the information transmission of the informal organization, followed by understanding the relationships among the enterprise staffs.     

Organizational Development as Generative Entrenchment

A critical task for organizations is how to best structure themselves to efficiently allocate information and resources to individuals tasked with solving sub-components of the organization’s central problems. Despite this criticality, the processes by which organizational structures form remain largely opaque within organizational theory, with most approaches focused on how structure is influenced by individual managerial heuristics, normative cultural perceptions, and trial-and-error. Here, we propose that a broad understanding of organizational formation can be aided by appealing to generative entrenchment, a theory from developmental biology that helps explain why phylogenetically diverse animals appear similar as embryos. Drawing inferences from generative entrenchment and applying it to organizational differentiation, we argue that the reason many organizations appear structurally similar is due to core informational restraints on individual actors beginning at the top and descending to the bottom of these informational hierarchies, which reinforces these structures via feedback between separate levels. We further argue that such processes can lead to the emergence of a variety of group-level traits, an important but undertheorized class of phenomena in cultural evolution.     

Message Passing and Metabolism

Active inference is an increasingly prominent paradigm in theoretical biology. It frames the dynamics of living systems as if they were solving an inference problem. This rests upon their flow towards some (non-equilibrium) steady state—or equivalently, their maximisation of the Bayesian model evidence for an implicit probabilistic model. For many models, these self-evidencing dynamics manifest as messages passed among elements of a system. Such messages resemble synaptic communication at a neuronal network level but could also apply to other network structures. This paper attempts to apply the same formulation to biochemical networks. The chemical computation that occurs in regulation of metabolism relies upon sparse interactions between coupled reactions, where enzymes induce conditional dependencies between reactants. We will see that these reactions may be viewed as the movement of probability mass between alternative categorical states. When framed in this way, the master equations describing such systems can be reformulated in terms of their steady-state distribution. This distribution plays the role of a generative model, affording an inferential interpretation of the underlying biochemistry. Finally, we see that—in analogy with computational neurology and psychiatry—metabolic disorders may be characterized as false inference under aberrant prior beliefs.     

Information Theory for Agents in Artificial Intelligence,Psychology, and Economics

This review looks at some of the central relationships between artificial intelligence, psychology, and economics through the lens of information theory, specifically focusing on formal models of decision-theory. In doing so we look at a particular approach that each field has adopted and how information theory has informed the development of the ideas of each field. A key theme is expected utility theory, its connection to information theory, the Bayesian approach to decision-making and forms of (bounded) rationality. What emerges from this review is a broadly unified formal perspective derived from three very different starting points that reflect the unique principles of each field. Each of the three approaches reviewed can, in principle at least, be implemented in a computational model in such a way that, with sufficient computational power, they could be compared with human abilities in complex tasks. However, a central critique that can be applied to all three approaches was first put forward by Savage in The Foundations of Statistics and recently brought to the fore by the economist Binmore: Bayesian approaches to decision-making work in what Savage called ‘small worlds’ but cannot work in ‘large worlds’. This point, in various different guises, is central to some of the current debates about the power of artificial intelligence and its relationship to human-like learning and decision-making. Recent work on artificial intelligence has gone some way to bridging this gap but significant questions remain to be answered in all three fields in order to make progress in producing realistic models of human decision-making in the real world in which we live in.     

能量公设与自由能判据的普遍化形式

从能量公设的角度论述了自由能及其判据的普遍化形式,并对其本质内涵进行了讨论．讨论认为：热力学系统中目由能的一般形式是与N种功类型相关的各种能形式之和,对孤立物体系在温度不变的情形下,不可逆过程总是导致总自由能的减少．通过实例说明了普遍化形式自由能判据的应用．