面向靠桥率及道口冲突率的航班-机位指派问题优化模型及其启发式算法研究

在给定航班时刻表条件下,对于进出港航班的机位分配,除了必须满足航班、飞机和机位之间的技术性要求之外,还要考虑尽量提高整个机场的机位利用率,且方便旅客出入港及时、安全和便捷.文章以飞机机型、所属航空公司、客运/货运航班、国内/国际航班等匹配条件为约束条件,以航班-机位分配完成率、靠桥率、道口非冲突率为目标,建立了一个航班...     

基于动态网络DEA模型的机场绩效研究

在已有网络DEA的基础上加入时间维度,构建了多时段下具有串联决策单元内部结构的复杂系统动态网络DEA效率评价模型.模型与传统DEA模型相比,既克服了传统DEA无视系统内部结构的缺陷,又在传统DEA的决策空间和目标空间基础上加入了时间维度,可以考察决策单元在不同时段的效率变化,从而对解决多时段内的复杂系统效率评估问题具有更为现实的应用价值.运用模型对区域多机场系统中的机场运营效率进行了计算,结果表明:1)动态网络DEA模型综合机场多年的投入产出,引入联系变量将相邻两时段连接起来,系统全面地评价多年来机场的整体运营水平,避免了传统模型将各年度独立评价的不足.2)江苏7家机场在2006-2010年仅南京禄口机场动态效率值为1,其余机场效率值都比较低,说明这些机场5年整体运营不佳,需要进一步加强管理和改进.     

基于轨迹偏差改进算法的无人机飞行冲突评估

以有人驾驶飞机改装的大型无人机开展计划飞行任务作为研究背景,根据飞行姿态、运行要素和空域运行结构等特征,完成了中低空空域内轨迹偏差算法模型的改进.运用改进模型分析计算,获得了基于导航定位精度下,飞行预设位置点与实际位置点的差异和分布趋势,结合ICAO(international civil aviation organization)设计的飞行标准,首次建立了在满足民航运行安全标准下,多机种大型飞机联合运行空域内的飞行冲突量化结果.计算结果表明:改进模型综合考虑了大型无人机在转弯及直线阶段的轨迹偏差,通过偏差数据建立模板评价飞行冲突态势,获得了联合运行空域内飞行器间安全值,推导空域密度,为机场及进离场阶段执行联合计划飞行任务,提供了科学规划的依据.     

基于回归分析的机场拥挤预测问题研究

及时有效的预测机场拥挤状态并辅助机场管理部门采取相应缓解拥挤的措施,将有助于提高机场的服务质量和运行效率.提出了利用回归分析的方法对机场拥挤问题进行研究.利用已有的历史航班数据挖掘出与机场拥挤最为相关的因素,并将其作为预测变量来预测响应变量.使用到两种回归分析方法即:普通最小二乘回归(OLS)和支持向量回归(SVR).使用历史数据来训练模型,并将这两种训练模型用于真实数据集上做测试,且取得较好的预测效果.实验结果证明该方法在机场拥挤预测问题上的可用性和有效性.     

机场安全运行监管机制的动态博弈分析

监管机制是否行之有效是决定机场能否长期安全运行的关键所在.针对机场安全运行监管现状,进一步挖掘机场与政府之间内在博弈机理,在引入机场按章运行与违章运行下发生不安全事件概率因子的基础上,构建了机场与政府之间的安全运行动态监管博弈模型,研究了二者在机场安全运行监管过程中博弈双方的策略选择问题.通过对模型混合策略纳什均衡进行...     

考虑非期望产出的我国对外开放机场生产效率评估

针对已有对机场生产效率评估中忽视非期望产出这一问题,研究构建了非期望产出模型SBM-Undesirable,选择我国对外开放机场为研究对象,对其机场生产效率进行评估,并在此基础上对对外开放机场投入产出要素进行定量调整.研究结果表明:在机场生产运营过程中存在非期望产出的情况下,采用SBM-Undesirable模型对其进行效率评价,能够避免传统DEA模型的缺陷,提高效率评价的准确性.通过模型分析发现我国62个对外开放机场中有18个机场生产效率有效,而采用传统CCR模型进行机场生产效率评估时,只有12个机场生产效率有效,说明非期望产出对外开放机场生产效率有显著的影响;我国对外开放机场的生产效率有显著的区域特征,我国区域对外开放机场生产效率得分排序为华中、西南、西北、华南、华东、华北、东北;通过对我国生产效率无效的对外开放机场分析,发现各个对外开放机场普遍存在投入冗余、效益产出不足和非期望产出过多的情况,优化投入产出配置能力、减少机场投诉数量等非期望产出和增加机场有效产出是改善机场生产效率的现实途径.     

考虑非期望产出的我国对外开放机场生产效率评估北大核心

针对已有对机场生产效率评估中忽视非期望产出这一问题,研究构建了非期望产出模型SBM-Undesirable,选择我国对外开放机场为研究对象,对其机场生产效率进行评估,并在此基础上对对外开放机场投入产出要素进行定量调整.研究结果表明:在机场生产运营过程中存在非期望产出的情况下,采用SBM-Undesirable模型对其进行效率评价,能够避免传统DEA模型的缺陷,提高效率评价的准确性.通过模型分析发现我国62个对外开放机场中有18个机场生产效率有效,而采用传统CCR模型进行机场生产效率评估时,只有12个机场生产效率有效,说明非期望产出对外开放机场生产效率有显著的影响;我国对外开放机场的生产效率有显著的区域特征,我国区域对外开放机场生产效率得分排序为华中、西南、西北、华南、华东、华北、东北;通过对我国生产效率无效的对外开放机场分析,发现各个对外开放机场普遍存在投入冗余、效益产出不足和非期望产出过多的情况,优化投入产出配置能力、减少机场投诉数量等非期望产出和增加机场有效产出是改善机场生产效率的现实途径.     

基于序贯决策的航班恢复方法

针对枢纽机场临时关闭后的航班恢复问题,提出了一种新的调度方法,为实时航班恢复提供了新思路.通过重新定义恢复操作,将多变量复杂约束的航班规划问题转化为约束条件简单的序贯决策问题.新方法以原始航班计划为基础,按时间顺序对各时刻的机场起降航班流量约束进行冲突消解.在每一决策时刻,推理计算各航班推迟成本,优先安排成本高的航班起降.测试用例表明,新方法能够为繁忙枢纽机场临时关闭后的多机型航班恢复问题快速地给出最优调整方案.将模型拓展应用于飞机旅客一体化恢复问题,也能够迅速获得调整方案.     

复杂约束条件下的UCAV多重任务分配

与单任务分配问题相比,无人作战飞机(UCAV)多重任务分配具有更复杂的约束条件.基于UCAV任务分配有向图给出了多重任务分配的一般框架,分析了任务分配的约束条件,提出了一种求解约束优化问题的改进遗传算法.其基本思想是对种群中的个体按两种方案评价,对可行解按目标函数值大小,对不可行解按约束违反程度进行评价,避免了罚函数法中的罚因子的选取难题.采用矩阵形式进行个体编码,按目标出现顺序映射任务类型,解决了多重任务的编码表示,并对武器类型向量实施绑定策略,简化了问题复杂性.设计了选择,交叉,变异等遗传操作算子,保证生成的新染色体不破坏编码时满足的约束条件.最后进行了仿真试验,结果表明提出的方法求解UCAV多重任务分配问题的可行性和有效性.     

图书采购流程中资金分配模型研究

本应用现代经济理论的择优分配原理，在图书产出效益函数的性质探讨的基础上，将效益函数的约束条件转化为对资金变量的约束条件，从而简化了资金分配方案的求解。提出了资金在各类别图书中的分配模型，指导图书馆图书采购工作。     

An exact multi-objective mixed integer nonlinear optimization approach for aircraft conflict resolution

An exact mixed integer nonlinear optimization (MINO) model is presented for tackling the aircraft conflict detection and resolution problem in air traffic management. Given a set of flights and their configurations, the aim of the problem was to provide new configurations such that all conflict situations are avoided, with conflict situation understood to mean an event in which two or more aircraft violate the minimum safety distances that must be maintained in flight. The proposed model solves the problem using both horizontal (velocity and angle turn change) and vertical (altitude level change) maneuvers. As a special case, another model is presented in which only horizontal maneuvers are used. The models proposed are based on a geometric construction which involves trigonometric functions, so the constraint system is included via a large set of trigonometric and nonconvex inequalities. A multicriteria approach is presented to provide useful information to air traffic control officers about the maneuvers to be performed. The main results of an extensive computational experiment are reported in which the performance of the state-of-the-art nonconvex MINO solver Minotaur is studied.     

Using simulation modelling to support decisions in hail suppression programmes with airborne means

This article presents the development and implementation of a stochastic discrete event simulation model. The project aims to analyse and improve the operational processes of a Hail Suppression Programme with airborne means. The main objective of the programme is the minimization of crop damages because of hailstorms. The project involves a simulation model as part of the decision support analysis, which investigates costs and effectiveness of various operational scenarios concerning the interception and neutralization of hailstorms, using airborne seeding. Apart from estimating responses and metrics under miscellaneous scenarios, the model facilitates what-if analysis to inspect and reveal relations between service (interception) times, number of aircrafts, and acceptable values of efficiency metrics. Subsequently, the model has been used to estimate a regression function that has been further implemented in the assessment process for new technologies and materials.     

An agent-based approach for structured modeling,analysis and improvement of safety culture

Safety culture is broadly recognized as important for operational safety in various fields, including air traffic management, power plant control and health care. Previous studies addressed characterization and assessment of safety culture extensively. Nevertheless, relations between safety culture and formal and informal organizational structures and processes are yet not well understood. To address this gap, a new, formal, agent-based approach is proposed. This paper shows the application of the approach to an air navigation service provider, including structured modeling, analysis and identification of improvement strategies for the organizational safety culture. The model results have been validated using safety culture data that had been achieved by an independent safety culture survey study.     

Effects of proactive decision making on life satisfaction

Proactive decision making, a concept recently introduced to behavioral operational research and decision analysis, addresses effective decision making during its phase of generating alternatives. It is measured on a scale comprising six dimensions grouped into two categories: proactive personality traits and proactive cognitive skills. Personality traits are grounded on theoretical constructs such as proactive attitude and proactive behavior; cognitive skills reflect value-focused thinking and decision quality. These traits and skills have been used to explain decision satisfaction, although their antecedents and other consequences have not yet been the subject of rigorous hypotheses and testing.This paper embeds proactive decision making within a model of three possible consequences. We consider—and empirically test—decision satisfaction, general self-efficacy, and life satisfaction by conducting three studies with 1300 participants. We then apply structural equation modeling to show that proactive decision making helps to account for life satisfaction, an explanation mediated by general self-efficacy and decision satisfaction. Thus proactive decision making fosters greater belief in one's abilities and increases satisfaction with one's decisions and with life more generally. These results imply that it is worthwhile to help individuals enhance their decision-making proactivity.Demonstrating the positive effects of proactive decision making at the individual level underscores how important the phase of generating alternatives is, and it also highlights the merit of employing “decision quality” principles and being proactive during that phase. Hence the findings presented here confirm the relevance of OR, and of decision-analytic principles, to the lives of ordinary people.     

A heuristic approach for airport gate assignments for stochastic flight delays

To make good flight to gate assignments, not only do all the relevant constraints have to be considered, but stochastic flight delays that occur in actual operations also have to be taken into account. In past research, airport gate assignments and stochastic disturbances have often been handled in the planning and the real-time stages separately, meaning that the interrelationship between these stages, as affected by such delays, has been neglected. In this research, we develop a heuristic approach embedded in a framework designed to help the airport authorities make airport gate assignments that are sensitive to stochastic flight delays. The framework includes three components, a stochastic gate assignment model, a real-time assignment rule, and two penalty adjustment methods. The test results are based on data supplied by a Taiwan international airport, and show that the proposed framework performs better than the current manual assignment process and the traditional deterministic model.     

On the waiting time of arriving aircrafts and the capacity of airports with one or two runways

In this paper we examine a model for the landing procedure of aircrafts at an airport. The characteristic feature here is that due to air turbulence the safety distance between two landing aircrafts depends on the types of these two machines. Hence, an efficient routing of the aircraft to two runways may reduce their waiting time.     

Enhanced lateral transshipments in a multi-location inventory system

In managing an inventory network, two approaches to the pooling of stock have been proposed. Reactive transshipments respond to shortages at a location by moving inventory from elsewhere within the network, while proactive stock redistribution seeks to minimize the chance of future stockouts. This paper is the first to propose an enhanced reactive approach in which individual transshipments are viewed as an opportunity for proactive stock redistribution. We adopt a quasi-myopic approach to the development of a strongly performing enhanced reactive transshipment policy. In comparison to a purely reactive approach to transshipment, service levels are improved while a reduction in safety stock levels is achieved. The aggregate costs incurred in managing the system are significantly reduced, especially so for large networks. Moreover, an optimal policy is determined for small networks and it is shown that the enhanced reactive policy substantially closes the gap to optimality.     

Finding the optimal CSP inventory level for multi-echelon system in Air Force using random effects regression model

Determining the optimal inventory level of CSP (concurrent spare parts) is crucial at the time of acquisition of new aircrafts. Most of the existing optimal CSP models do not take into account the time varying characteristics of CSP even though their demand rates are sensitive to such variation. In this paper, we introduce the CSP inventory model using a two stage approach. At the first stage, we use a random effects model to predict the expected demand of CSP in a multi-echelon system consisting of depot and bases based on CSPs varying characteristics with time. At the second stage, we find the optimal inventory level of CSP by using the optimization algorithm with various constraints under limited budget. The study is expected to contribute to the Air Force establishing the optimal national defense procurement policy for CSP of aircrafts.     

Conflict avoidance: 0-1 linear models for conflict detection & resolution

The Conflict Detection and Resolution Problem for Air Traffic Flow Management consists of deciding the best strategy for airborne aircraft so that there is guarantee that no conflict takes place, i.e., all aircraft maintain the minimum safety distance at every time instant. Two integer linear optimization models for conflict avoidance between any number of aircraft in the airspace are proposed, the first being a pure 0-1 linear which avoids conflicts by means of altitude changes, and the second a mixed 0-1 linear whose strategy is based on altitude and speed changes. Several objective functions are established. Due to the small elapsed time that is required for solving both problems, the approach can be used in real time by using state-of-the-art mixed integer linear optimization software.     

A decision model for berth allocation under uncertainty

This paper studies the berth allocation problem (BAP) under uncertain arrival time or operation time of vessels. It does not only concern the proactive strategy to develop an initial schedule that incorporates a degree of anticipation of uncertainty during the schedule’s execution, but also studies the reactive recovery strategy which adjusts the initial schedule to handle realistic scenarios with minimum penalty cost of deviating from the initial schedule. A two-stage decision model is developed for the BAP under uncertainties. Moreover, a meta-heuristic approach is proposed for solving the above problem in large-scale realistic environments. Numerical experiments are conducted to validate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method.