Predicting daily exchange rate with singular spectrum analysis

This paper uses univariate and multivariate singular spectrum analysis for predicting the value and the direction of changes in the daily pound/dollar exchange rate. In prediction of daily pound/dollar rate, we use the rescaled and bootstrapped daily euro/dollar rate as a guidepost for the singular spectrum analysis method. We use the random walk model as a benchmark to evaluate performances of the singular spectrum analysis as a prediction method. Empirical results show that the forecast based on the multivariate singular spectrum analysis compares favorably to the forecast of the random walk model both for predicting the value and the direction of changes in the daily pound/dollar exchange rate. We compared the prediction results based on an error correction model in the context of a restricted vector autoregressive model and compared them with the prediction results by a random walk as well as by those of singular spectrum and multiple singular spectrum models and found that the VEC results are inferior.     

The MaxMin value of stochastic games with imperfect monitoring

We study finite zero-sum stochastic games in which players do not observe the actions of their opponent. Rather, at each stage, each player observes a stochastic signal that may depend on the current state and on the pair of actions chosen by the players. We assume that each player observes the state and his/her own action. We prove that the uniform max-min value always exists. Moreover, the uniform max-min value is independent of the information structure of player 2. Symmetric results hold for the uniform min-max value. We deeply thank E. Lehrer, J.-F. Mertens, A. Neyman and S. Sorin. The discussions we had, and the suggestions they provided, were extremely useful. We acknowledge the financial support of the Arc-en-Ciel/Keshet program for 2001/2002. The research of the second author was supported by the Israel Science Foundation (grant No. 69/01-1).     

Using convex envelopes to solve the interactive fixed-charge linear programming problem

In the well-known fixed-charge linear programming problem, it is assumed, for each activity, that the value of the fixed charge incurred when the level of the activity is positive does not depend upon which other activities, if any, are also undertaken at a positive level. However, we have encountered several practical problems where this assumption does not hold. In an earlier paper, we developed a new problem, called the interactive fixed-charge linear programming problem (IFCLP), to model these problems. In this paper, we show how to construct the convex envelopes and other convex underestimating functions for the objective function for problem (IFCLP) over various rectangular subsets of its domain. Using these results, we develop a specialized branch-and-bound algorithm for problem (IFCLP) which finds an exact optimal solution for the problem in a finite number of steps. We also discuss the main properties of this algorithm.The authors would like to thank an anonymous referee for his helpful suggestions.     

Noncoercive boundary value problems for the Laplace equation with a spectral parameter

In this paper we find conditions that guarantee that irregular boundary value problems for elliptic differential-operator equations of the second order in an interval are coercive with a defect and fredholm; compactness of a resolvent and estimations by spectral parameter; completeness of root functions. We apply this result to find some algebraic conditions that guarantee that irregular boundary value problems for elliptic partial differential equations of the second order in cylindrical domains have the same properties. Apparently this is the first paper where the regularity of an elliptic boundary value problem is not satisfied on a manifold of the dimension equal to the dimension of the boundary. Nevertheless, the problem is fredholm and the resolvent is compact. It is interesting to note that the considered boundary value problems for elliptic equations in a cylinder being with separating variables are noncoercive. I wish to thank the referee whose comments helped me improve the style of the paper. Supported in part by the Israel Ministry of Science and Technology and the Israel-France Rashi Foundation.     

Stochastic games with two non-absorbing states

In the present paper we consider recursive games that satisfy an absorbing property defined by Vieille. We give two sufficient conditions for existence of an equilibrium payoff in such games, and prove that if the game has at most two non-absorbing states, then at least one of the conditions is satisfied. Using a reduction of Vieille, we conclude that every stochastic game which has at most two non-absorbing states admits an equilibrium payoff. This paper is part of the Ph.D. thesis of the author completed under the supervision of Prof. Abraham Neyman at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. I would like to thank Prof. Neyman for many discussions and ideas and for the continuous help he offered. I also thank Nicolas Vieille for his comments on earlier versions of the paper.     

Values for strategic games in which players cooperate

In this paper we propose a new method to associate a coalitional game with each strategic game. The method is based on the lower value of finite two-player zero-sum games. We axiomatically characterize this new method, as well as the method that was described in Von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944). As an intermediate step, we provide axiomatic characterizations of the value and the lower value of matrix games and finite two-player zero-sum games, respectively.The authors acknowledge the financial support of Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnologia, FEDER andXunta de Galicia through projects BEC2002-04102-C02-02 and PGIDIT03PXIC20701PN.We wish to thank Professor William Thomson as well as an anonymous referee for useful comments.     

Consistent values and the core in continuum market games with two types of players

The consistent value is an extension of the Shapley value to the class of games with non-transferable utility.? In this paper, the consistent value will be characterized for market games with a continuum of players of two types. We will show that for such games the consistent value need not belong to the core, and provide conditions under which there is equivalence between the two concepts. Received: October 1998 RID="*" ID="*"  This thesis was completed under the supervision of Professor Sergiu Hart, The Center for Rationality and Interactive Decision Theory, Department of Mathematics, Department of Economics, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem. I would like to thank Professor Hart for introducing me to this area of research, for his help and guidance, and, especially, for all his patience.? I would also like to thank Michael Borns for improving the style, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments.     

The American Foreign Exchange Option in Time-Dependent One-Dimensional Diffusion Model for Exchange Rate

The classical Garman-Kohlhagen model for the currency exchange assumes that the domestic and foreign currency risk-free interest rates are constant and the exchange rate follows a log-normal diffusion process. In this paper we consider the general case, when exchange rate evolves according to arbitrary one-dimensional diffusion process with local volatility that is the function of time and the current exchange rate and where the domestic and foreign currency risk-free interest rates may be arbitrary continuous functions of time. First non-trivial problem we encounter in time-dependent case is the continuity in time argument of the value function of the American put option and the regularity properties of the optimal exercise boundary. We establish these properties based on systematic use of the monotonicity in volatility for the value functions of the American as well as European options with convex payoffs together with the Dynamic Programming Principle and we obtain certain type of comparison result for the value functions and corresponding exercise boundaries for the American puts with different strikes, maturities and volatilities. Starting from the latter fact that the optimal exercise boundary curve is left continuous with right-hand limits we give a mathematically rigorous and transparent derivation of the significant early exercise premium representation for the value function of the American foreign exchange put option as the sum of the European put option value function and the early exercise premium. The proof essentially relies on the particular property of the stochastic integral with respect to arbitrary continuous semimartingale over the predictable subsets of its zeros. We derive from the latter the nonlinear integral equation for the optimal exercise boundary which can be studied by numerical methods.     

On stochastic games

In this paper, we consider the stochastic games of Shapley, when the state and action spaces are all infinite. We prove that, under certain conditions, the stochastic game has a value and that both players have optimal strategies.Part of this research was supported by NSF grant. The authors are indebted to L. S. Shapley for the useful discussions on this and related topics. The authors thank the referee for pointing out an ambiguity in the formulation of Lemma 2.4 in an earlier draft of this article.     

Existence and uniqueness results for minimization problems with nonconvex functionals

In some physical problems (mechanical problems, optimal control problems, phase transition problems, etc.), we have to minimize a functionalJ over a topological spaceU for whichJ is not sequentially lower semicontinuous. In this article, we prove new existence results for general one-dimensional vector problems of calculus of variations without any convexity condition on the integrand of the problem. In particular, we do not suppose that the integrand is split in two parts, one part depending on the gradient variable and the other part depending on the state variable, as is often supposed in recent results. In the case where the integrand is the sum of two functions, the first one depending on the gradient variable and the second one depending on the state variable, we also prove a uniqueness result without any convexity assumption with respect to the gradient variable.A preliminary version of some results given in this article was presented at the Workshop on Calculus of Variations and Nonlinear Elasticity organized at Cortona, Italy, 27–31 May 1991 by B. Dacorogna, P. Marcellini, and C. Sbordone. The author would like to thank the organizers of this workshop for their invitation.     

The Exchange Value Embedded in a Transport System

This paper shows that a well designed transport system has an embedded exchange value by serving as a market for potential exchange between consumers. Under suitable conditions, one can improve the welfare of consumers in the system simply by allowing some exchange of goods between consumers during transportation without incurring additional transportation cost. We propose an explicit valuation formula to measure this exchange value for a given compatible transport system. This value is always nonnegative and bounded from above. Criteria based on transport structures, preferences and prices are provided to determine the existence of a positive exchange value. Finally, we study a new optimal transport problem with an objective taking into account of both transportation cost and exchange value.     

一种刻划浮动汇率的模型:增量一分数高斯噪声(I-FGN)过程

为了描述汇率变动之间的远程相关行为,本文提出了刻划浮动汇率的一种新模型并给出了具体的建模方法,实验结果说明该模型是有意义的．     

The dam problem with leaky boundary conditions

The goal of this paper is to study the fluid flow through a two-dimensional porous medium when we impose a leaky boundary condition. We show in particular that the situation is quite different from the one with the usual Dirichlet boundary condition.This work was initiated at the Universidad Complutense in Madrid and at the University of Bonn. We would like to thank these institutions. We also thank the I.M.A. (University of Minnesota) for providing its support and a nice working atmosphere to the second author during the completion of this paper.     

Core extensions for non-balanced TU-games

A family of core extensions for cooperative TU-games is introduced. These solution concepts are non-empty when applied to non-balanced games yet coincide with the core whenever the core is non-empty. The extensions suggest how an exogenous regulator can sustain a stable and efficient outcome, financing a subsidy via individual taxes. Economic and geometric properties of the solution concepts are studied. When taxes are proportional, the proportional prenucleolus is proposed as a single-valued selection device. An application of these concepts to the decentralization of a public goods economy is discussed. We wish to thank the editor, a referee, an anonymous reviewer, Beth Allen, Marc Dudey, Yakar Kannai, Herve Moulin, Marcel Richter, Luis Sánchez-Mier, and the participants in the Microeconomic Theory Workshop at Rice University for their helpful comments.     

Mixing stochastic dynamic programming and scenario aggregation

This paper describes a serial and parallel implementation of a hybrid stochastic dynamic programming and progressive hedging algorithm. Numerical experiments show good speedups in the parallel implementation. In spite of this, our hybrid algorithm has difficulties competing with a pure stochastic dynamic programming approach on a given test case from macroeconomic control theory.This research has been conducted with financial support from the Norwegian Research Council. As most of this work was conducted under the TRACS program at the University of Edinburgh, we want to thank Ken McKinnon and all other helpful people at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics of Edinburgh University and at the Edinburgh Parallel Computing Centre. We are also very grateful to our colleague Stein W. Wallace for his continuing support of our work. Without him, this research would probably never have taken place. We would also like to thank an anonymous referee for helpful corrections and comments.     

The computation of a general equilibrium in a public goods economy

This paper presents an algorithm for computing approximations to a certain subset of Pareto optimal allocations in a public goods economy. Consumers are partitioned into a number of exogenous governmental jurisdictions, which provide public goods locally and raise revenue to cover their costs by means of a proportional wealth tax. The Pareto optimal allocations studied are consistent with profit maximization on the part of producers, and utility maximization over private goods bundles subject to after-tax budget constraints by consumers. The computational routine is based on the Scarf algorithm for computing fixed points.The origins of this research date back to the Dartmouth Workshop on Applications to economics of new methods of computing fixed points, held during the summer of 1972 under the direction of H. Scarf. The author wishes to thank the participants in this workshop for many stimulating discussions. Also the provision of computer time by the Computer Research Center of the National Bureau of Economic Research is gratefully acknowledged. FIXPOINT, an interactive computer system developed at the Computer Research Center, was used in performing the numerical computations presented in the paper.     

Generalized descent for global optimization

This paper introduces a new method for the global unconstrained minimization of a differentiable objective function. The method is based on search trajectories, which are defined by a differential equation and exhibit certain similarities to the trajectories of steepest descent. The trajectories depend explicitly on the value of the objective function and aim at attaining a given target level, while rejecting all larger local minima. Convergence to the gloal minimum can be proven for a certain class of functions and appropriate setting of two parameters.The author wishes to thank Professor R. P. Brent for making helpful suggestions and acknowledges the financial support of an Australian National University Postgraduate Scholarship.