Empirical likelihood for first-order mixed integer-valued autoregressive model

In this paper, we not only construct the confidence region for parameters in a mixed integer-valued autoregressive process using the empirical likelihood method, but also establish the empirical log-likelihood ratio statistic and obtain its limiting distribution. And then, via simulation studies we give coverage probabilities for the parameters of interest. The results show that the empirical likelihood method performs very well.     

A note on Sheppard's corrections for grouping and maximum likelihood estimation

Sheppard's corrections for grouping can, in the case of an underlying normal distribution, be interpreted as a first step to the solution of the maximum likelihood equations which incorporate the grouping problem. This result of Lindley (for the univariate) and Haitovsky (for the bivariate) is generalized to the multivariate normal distribution, making use of recent results in matrix algebra. Also, formulae concerning the efficiency lost in grouping are generalized to the multivariate case.     

Maximum likelihood estimation for noncausal autoregressive processes

We discuss a maximum likelihood procedure for estimating parameters in possibly noncausal autoregressive processes driven by i.i.d. non-Gaussian noise. Under appropriate conditions, estimates of the parameters that are solutions to the likelihood equations exist and are asymptotically normal. The estimation procedure is illustrated with a simulation study for AR(2) processes.     

Asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimate in the first order autoregressive process

Summary In this paper we obtain an asymptotic expansion of the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) based onT observations from the first order Gaussian process up to the term of orderT ⁻¹. The expansion is used to compare with a generalized estimate including the least square estimate (LSE) , based on the asymptotic probabilities around the true value of the estimates up to the terms of orderT ⁻¹. It is shown that (or the modified MLE ) is better than (or the modified estimate ). Further, we note that does not attain the bound for third order asymptotic median unbiased estimates.     

A note on maximum likelihood estimation of the initial number of susceptibles in the general stochastic epidemic model

The initial number of susceptible individuals in a population is usually assumed to be known and statistical inference for some of the quantities of interest, such as the basic reproductive number R₀, is straightforward. However, in any epidemic, there may exist a number of individuals who may not be involved in the transmission of the disease. In this note we show how maximum likelihood estimators can be derived for the parameters of interest. The proposed methodology is then applied to the Abakaliki smallpox data in Nigeria.     

Inequality constrained maximum likelihood estimation

Summary The existence of an estimator constrained to lie in a certain type of bounded set is established for a fairly wide class of probability density functions. The necessary and sufficient conditions thus obtained provide a convenient means of finding such an estimator by mathematical programming methods. This result is a generalization of Cramer’s demonstration of the existence of an unconstrained maximum likelihood estimator and of Aitchison and Silvey’s demonstration of the existence of a maximum likelihood estimator constrained to satisfy certain equations.     

Parameter estimation for first-order bifurcating autoregressive processes with Weibull innovations

We study the first-order bifurcating autoregressive process X_t=?X_⌊t/2⌋+?_t with Weibull innovations. Using point process technique, we estimate the model parameter ? and the tail index α in the Weibull distribution and obtain the joint limit distribution of estimators.     

maxLik: A package for maximum likelihood estimation in R

This paper describes the package maxLik for the statistical environment R. The package is essentially a unified wrapper interface to various optimization routines, offering easy access to likelihood-specific features like standard errors or information matrix equality (BHHH method). More advanced features of the optimization algorithms, such as forcing the value of a particular parameter to be fixed, are also supported.     

A note on the stationarity of a threshold first-order bilinear process

In the present note we study the threshold first-order bilinear model

X(t)=aX(t−1)+(b₁1_{X(t−1)<c}+b₂1_{X(t−1)c})X(t−1)e(t−1)+e(t), tεN

where {e(t), tεN} is a sequence of i.i.d. absolutely continuous random variables, X(0) is a given random variable and a, b₁, b₂ and c are real numbers. Under suitable conditions on the coefficients and lower semicontinuity of the densities of the noise sequence, we provide sufficient conditions for the existence of a stationary solution process to the present model and of its finite moments of order p.     

Local polynomial maximum likelihood estimation for Pareto-type distributions

We discuss the estimation of the tail index of a heavy-tailed distribution when covariate information is available. The approach followed here is based on the technique of local polynomial maximum likelihood estimation. The generalized Pareto distribution is fitted locally to exceedances over a high specified threshold. The method provides nonparametric estimates of the parameter functions and their derivatives up to the degree of the chosen polynomial. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators will be proven under suitable regularity conditions. This approach is motivated by the fact that in some applications the threshold should be allowed to change with the covariates due to significant effects on scale and location of the conditional distributions. Using the asymptotic results we are able to derive an expression for the asymptotic mean squared error, which can be used to guide the selection of the bandwidth and the threshold. The applicability of the method will be demonstrated with a few practical examples.     

Penalized maximum likelihood estimation for a function of the intensity of a Poisson point process

Let be an unknown 2 times differentiable function and consider M to be an α- homogeneous Poisson process on Graf(f). The goal is to estimate f having a sample of the inhomogeneous Poisson process N constructed by dislocating each point of M perpendicularly to Graf(f) by a normal random variable with zero mean and constant variance σ². The exact formulas for the mean measure and the intensity function of N are obtained. Then, the function f is estimated directly using a hybrid spline approach to penalized maximum likelihood. Simulation results indicate the procedure to be consistent as and .      

极大似然估计算法研究

将解一元方程的二分法推广至求解多元非线性方程组.以第K个变元Xk为参数,则κ元方程组就可以看作曲线s(前κ-1个方程)和κ-1维曲面C(第κ个方程),于是κ元方程组的解就可以看作寻找曲线s和曲面C的交点.对参数Xk作二分法,重复迭代,直到找到满足误差要求的方程组的解.最后给出了用多元二分法的算法求解极大似然估计的数值解.     

Approximate maximum likelihood estimation in linear regression

The application of the ML method in linear regression requires a parametric form for the error density. When this is not available, the density may be parameterized by its cumulants ( _i ) and the ML then applied. Results are obtained when the standardized cumulants ( _i ) satisfy _i = _i+2/ ₂ ^(i+2)/2 =O(v ⁱ ) asv 0 fori>0.Research financed in part by the Research Center of the Athens University of Economics and Business.     

A note on the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator in a non-regular case

We consider the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), when the log-likelihood ratio statistic weakly converges to the non-degenerated Gaussian process. We provide a simple expression for the density function of the asymptotic distribution by fundamental stochastic results. This note is helpful to investigate asymptotic properties of the MLE in a certain non-regular case.     

Estimating parameters of a multiple autoregressive model by the modified maximum likelihood method

We consider a multiple autoregressive model with non-normal error distributions, the latter being more prevalent in practice than the usually assumed normal distribution. Since the maximum likelihood equations have convergence problems (Puthenpura and Sinha, 1986) [11], we work out modified maximum likelihood equations by expressing the maximum likelihood equations in terms of ordered residuals and linearizing intractable nonlinear functions (Tiku and Suresh, 1992) [8]. The solutions, called modified maximum estimators, are explicit functions of sample observations and therefore easy to compute. They are under some very general regularity conditions asymptotically unbiased and efficient (Vaughan and Tiku, 2000) [4]. We show that for small sample sizes, they have negligible bias and are considerably more efficient than the traditional least squares estimators. We show that our estimators are robust to plausible deviations from an assumed distribution and are therefore enormously advantageous as compared to the least squares estimators. We give a real life example.     

Sieve maximum likelihood estimation for doubly semiparametric zero-inflated Poisson models

For nonnegative measurements such as income or sick days, zero counts often have special status. Furthermore, the incidence of zero counts is often greater than expected for the Poisson model. This article considers a doubly semiparametric zero-inflated Poisson model to fit data of this type, which assumes two partially linear link functions in both the mean of the Poisson component and the probability of zero. We study a sieve maximum likelihood estimator for both the regression parameters and the nonparametric functions. We show, under routine conditions, that the estimators are strongly consistent. Moreover, the parameter estimators are asymptotically normal and first order efficient, while the nonparametric components achieve the optimal convergence rates. Simulation studies suggest that the extra flexibility inherent from the doubly semiparametric model is gained with little loss in statistical efficiency. We also illustrate our approach with a dataset from a public health study.     

Asymptotic expansions in sequential estimation for the first-order random coefficient autoregressive model: Regenerative approach

Edgeworth expansions for the distribution of a sequential least squares estimator in the random coefficient autoregressive (RCA) model are derived. The regenerative approach to second-order asymptotic analysis of Markov-type statistical models is developed.     

On maximum likelihood estimation of a Pareto mixture

In this paper we deal with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the parameters of a Pareto mixture. Standard MLE procedures are difficult to apply in this setup, because the distributions of the observations do not have common support. We study the properties of the estimators under different hypotheses; in particular, we show that, when all the parameters are unknown, the estimators can be found maximizing the profile likelihood function. Then we turn to the computational aspects of the problem, and develop three alternative procedures: an EM-type algorithm, a Simulated Annealing and an algorithm based on Cross-Entropy minimization. The work is motivated by an application in the operational risk measurement field: we fit a Pareto mixture to operational losses recorded by a bank in two different business lines. Under the assumption that each population follows a Pareto distribution, the appropriate model is a mixture of Pareto distributions where all the parameters have to be estimated.     

Likelihood landscape and maximum likelihood estimation for the discrete orbit recovery model

We study the nonconvex optimization landscape for maximum likelihood estimation in the discrete orbit recovery model with Gaussian noise. This is a statistical model motivated by applications in molecular microscopy and image processing, where each measurement of an unknown object is subject to an independent random rotation from a known rotational group. Equivalently, it is a Gaussian mixture model where the mixture centers belong to a group orbit. We show that fundamental properties of the likelihood landscape depend on the signal-to-noise ratio and the group structure. At low noise, this landscape is “benign” for any discrete group, possessing no spurious local optima and only strict saddle points. At high noise, this landscape may develop spurious local optima, depending on the specific group. We discuss several positive and negative examples, and provide a general condition that ensures a globally benign landscape at high noise. For cyclic permutations of coordinates on (multireference alignment), there may be spurious local optima when , and we establish a correspondence between these local optima and those of a surrogate function of the phase variables in the Fourier domain. We show that the Fisher information matrix transitions from resembling that of a single Gaussian distribution in low noise to having a graded eigenvalue structure in high noise, which is determined by the graded algebra of invariant polynomials under the group action. In a local neighborhood of the true object, where the neighborhood size is independent of the signal-to-noise ratio, the landscape is strongly convex in a reparametrized system of variables given by a transcendence basis of this polynomial algebra. We discuss implications for optimization algorithms, including slow convergence of expectation-maximization, and possible advantages of momentum-based acceleration and variable reparametrization for first- and second-order descent methods. © 2021 Wiley Periodicals LLC.