Estimation of risk-neutral density surfaces

Option price data is often used to infer risk-neutral densities for future prices of an underlying asset. Given the prices of a set of options on the same underlying asset with different strikes and maturities, we propose a nonparametric approach for estimating risk-neutral densities associated with several maturities. Our method uses bicubic splines in order to achieve the desired smoothness for the estimation and an optimization model to choose the spline functions that best fit the price data. Semidefinite programming is employed to guarantee the nonnegativity of the densities. We illustrate the process using synthetic option price data generated using log-normal and absolute diffusion processes as well as actual price data for options on the S&P 500 index. We also used the risk-neutral densities that we computed to price exotic options and observed that this approach generates prices that closely approximate the market prices of these options.     

Mixture Modeling for Longitudinal Data

In this article, we propose an unbiased estimating equation approach for a two-component mixture model with correlated response data. We adapt the mixture-of-experts model and a generalized linear model for component distribution and mixing proportion, respectively. The new approach only requires marginal distributions of both component densities and latent variables. We use serial correlations from subjects’ subgroup memberships, which improves estimation efficiency and classification accuracy, and show that estimation consistency does not depend on the choice of the working correlation matrix. The proposed estimating equation is solved by an expectation-estimating-equation (EEE) algorithm. In the E-step of the EEE algorithm, we propose a joint imputation based on the conditional linear property for the multivariate Bernoulli distribution. In addition, we establish asymptotic properties for the proposed estimators and the convergence property using the EEE algorithm. Our method is compared to an existing competitive mixture model approach in both simulation studies and an election data application. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Spectral sets of certain functions associated with Dirichlet series

We study spectral sets of functions which are expressed by Dirichlet series on a half-plane. We consider two approaches to study spectral sets of those functions; one is a distribution theoretic approach and the other is an approach to give asymptotic formulas for certain harmonic functions. Our consideration is essentially based on constructing certain expressions and approximations for those functions.     

Bayesian analysis of quantile regression for censored dynamic panel data

This paper develops a Bayesian approach to analyzing quantile regression models for censored dynamic panel data. We employ a likelihood-based approach using the asymmetric Laplace error distribution and introduce lagged observed responses into the conditional quantile function. We also deal with the initial conditions problem in dynamic panel data models by introducing correlated random effects into the model. For posterior inference, we propose a Gibbs sampling algorithm based on a location-scale mixture representation of the asymmetric Laplace distribution. It is shown that the mixture representation provides fully tractable conditional posterior densities and considerably simplifies existing estimation procedures for quantile regression models. In addition, we explain how the proposed Gibbs sampler can be utilized for the calculation of marginal likelihood and the modal estimation. Our approach is illustrated with real data on medical expenditures.     

Classification Modulo Invariance,With Application to Face Recognition

This article presents techniques for constructing classifiers that combine statistical information from training data with tangent approximations to known transformations; it demonstrates the techniques by applying them to a face recognition task. Our approach is to build Bayes classifiers with approximate class-conditional probability densities for measured data. The high dimension of the measurements in modern classification problems such as speech or image recognition makes inferring probability densities from feasibly sized training datasets difficult. We address the difficulty by imposing severely simplifying assumptions and exploiting a priori information about transformations to which classification should be invariant. For the face recognition task, we used a five-parameter group of such transformations consisting of rotation, shifts, and scalings. On the face recognition task, a classifier based on our techniques has an error rate that is 20% lower than that of the best algorithm in a reference software distribution.     

Adaptive Rejection Metropolis Simulated Annealing for Detecting Global Maximum Regions

A finite mixture model has been used to fit the data from heterogeneous populations to many applications. An Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is the most popular method to estimate parameters in a finite mixture model. A Bayesian approach is another method for fitting a mixture model. However, the EM algorithm often converges to the local maximum regions, and it is sensitive to the choice of starting points. In the Bayesian approach, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sometimes converges to the local mode and is difficult to move to another mode. Hence, in this paper we propose a new method to improve the limitation of EM algorithm so that the EM can estimate the parameters at the global maximum region and to develop a more effective Bayesian approach so that the MCMC chain moves from one mode to another more easily in the mixture model. Our approach is developed by using both simulated annealing (SA) and adaptive rejection metropolis sampling (ARMS). Although SA is a well-known approach for detecting distinct modes, the limitation of SA is the difficulty in choosing sequences of proper proposal distributions for a target distribution. Since ARMS uses a piecewise linear envelope function for a proposal distribution, we incorporate ARMS into an SA approach so that we can start a more proper proposal distribution and detect separate modes. As a result, we can detect the maximum region and estimate parameters for this global region. We refer to this approach as ARMS annealing. By putting together ARMS annealing with the EM algorithm and with the Bayesian approach, respectively, we have proposed two approaches: an EM-ARMS annealing algorithm and a Bayesian-ARMS annealing approach. We compare our two approaches with traditional EM algorithm alone and Bayesian approach alone using simulation, showing that our two approaches are comparable to each other but perform better than EM algorithm alone and Bayesian approach alone. Our two approaches detect the global maximum region well and estimate the parameters in this region. We demonstrate the advantage of our approaches using an example of the mixture of two Poisson regression models. This mixture model is used to analyze a survey data on the number of charitable donations.     

Model Misspecification: Finite Mixture or Homogeneous?

A common problem in statistical modelling is to distinguish between finite mixture distribution and a homogeneous non-mixture distribution. Finite mixture models are widely used in practice and often mixtures of normal densities are indistinguishable from homogenous non-normal densities. This paper illustrates what happens when the EM algorithm for normal mixtures is applied to a distribution that is a homogeneous non-mixture distribution. In particular, a population-based EM algorithm for finite mixtures is introduced and applied directly to density functions instead of sample data. The population-based EM algorithm is used to find finite mixture approximations to common homogeneous distributions. An example regarding the nature of a placebo response in drug treated depressed subjects is used to illustrate ideas.     

A general method for calculating functions of fuzzy numbers

This paper discusses the calculation of functions of fuzzy numbers. Our general approach follows that of the fuzzy weighted algorithm (FWA) of Wong and Dong. However, by developing a classification scheme for functions and their arguments, we show that there are many cases for which the FWA, and all other published methods, will give wrong results. We suggest an alternative approach which will work in all cases. For certain restricted classes of functions, we develop methods which require less computation than the FWA.     

Approximation of the joint spectral radius using sum of squares

We provide an asymptotically tight, computationally efficient approximation of the joint spectral radius of a set of matrices using sum of squares (SOS) programming. The approach is based on a search for an SOS polynomial that proves simultaneous contractibility of a finite set of matrices. We provide a bound on the quality of the approximation that unifies several earlier results and is independent of the number of matrices. Additionally, we present a comparison between our approximation scheme and earlier techniques, including the use of common quadratic Lyapunov functions and a method based on matrix liftings. Theoretical results and numerical investigations show that our approach yields tighter approximations.     

Evaluation of Plant Focus Strategies: A Continuous Approximation Framework

The concept of plant focus emphasizes a firm's ability to increase productivity and lower cost by limiting the number and variety of operations at its production lines. In this paper, we present a quantitative modeling framework to analyze the choice between product focus and market focus strategies. We also study the effect of flexible manufacturing technology on plant focus. Our methodology is based on a facility design model that uses continuous functions in representing the spatial distribution of demand and cost parameters. One of the advantages of this approach is its ability to generate closed-form solutions with relatively little data. Furthermore, it enables us derive several managerial insights into plant focus decisions as well as the impact of technology alternatives on these decisions. Finally, continuous approximation approach has potential to complement more detailed mixed integer models. This research was partially funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Council of Canada (OGP 183631) and the Canada Research Chair in Distribution Management at HEC Montreal. Both authors are affiliated with the Center for Research on Transportation, which provided an excellent environment for collaboration. Three anynomuous referees and Gilbert Laporte, the guest co-editor, provided very helpful comments on an earlier draft of the paper.     

An Approach to Finding a Global Minimization with Equality and Inequality Constraints

We give an approach for finding a global minimization with equality and inequality Constraints.Our approach is to construct an exact penalty function, and prove that the global minimal points of this exact penalty function are the primal constrained global minimal points. Thus we convert the problem of global constrained optimization into a problem of global unconstrained optimization. Furthermore, the integral approach for finding a global minimization for a class of discontinuous functions is used and an implementable algorithm is given.     

Heavy tails for an alternative stochastic perpetuity model

In this paper we consider a stochastic model of perpetuity-type. In contrast to the classical affine perpetuity model of Kesten (1973) and Goldie (1991) all discount factors in the model are mutually independent. We prove that the tails of the distribution of this model are regularly varying both in the univariate and multivariate cases. Due to the additional randomness in the model the tails are not pure power laws as in the Kesten–Goldie setting but involve a logarithmic term.     

Compatibility of conditionally specified models

A conditionally specified joint model is convenient to use in fields such as spatial data modeling, Gibbs sampling, and missing data imputation. One potential problem with such an approach is that the conditionally specified models may be incompatible, which can lead to serious problems in applications. We propose an odds ratio representation of a joint density to study the issue and derive conditions under which conditionally specified distributions are compatible and yield a joint distribution. Our conditions are the simplest to verify compared with those proposed in the literature. The proposal also explicitly constructs joint densities that are fully compatible with the conditionally specified densities when the conditional densities are compatible, and partially compatible with the conditional densities when they are incompatible. The construction result is then applied to checking the compatibility of the conditionally specified models. Ways to modify the conditionally specified models based on the construction of the joint models are also discussed when the conditionally specified models are incompatible.     

Generalized Isotonic Regression

We present a new computational and statistical approach for fitting isotonic models under convex differentiable loss functions through recursive partitioning. Models along the partitioning path are also isotonic and can be viewed as regularized solutions to the problem. Our approach generalizes and subsumes the well-known work of Barlow and Brunk on fitting isotonic regressions subject to specially structured loss functions, and expands the range of loss functions that can be used (e.g., adding Huber loss for robust regression). This is accomplished through an algorithmic adjustment to a recursive partitioning approach recently developed for solving large-scale ?₂-loss isotonic regression problems. We prove that the new algorithm solves the generalized problem while maintaining the favorable computational and statistical properties of the l₂ algorithm. The results are demonstrated on both real and synthetic data in two settings: fitting count data using negative Poisson log-likelihood loss, and fitting robust isotonic regressions using Huber loss. Proofs of theorems and a MATLAB-based software package implementing our algorithm are available in the online supplementary materials.     

Using mixture density functions for modelling of wage distributions

This article explores the possibility of modeling the wage distribution using a mixture of density functions. We deal with this issue for a long time and we build on our earlier work. Classical models use the probability distribution such as normal, lognormal, Pareto, etc., but the results are not very good in the last years. Changing the parameters of a probability density over time has led to a degradation of such models and it was necessary to choose a different probability distribution. We were using the idea of mixtures of distributions (instead of using one classical density) in previous articles. We tried using a mixture of probability distributions (normal, lognormal and a mixture of Johnson’s distribution densities) in our models. The achieved results were very good. We used data from Czech Statistical Office covering the wages of the last 18 years in Czech Republic.     

Hyperbolic smoothing function method for minimax problems

In this article, an approach for solving finite minimax problems is proposed. This approach is based on the use of hyperbolic smoothing functions. In order to apply the hyperbolic smoothing we reformulate the objective function in the minimax problem and study the relationship between the original minimax and reformulated problems. We also study main properties of the hyperbolic smoothing function. Based on these results an algorithm for solving the finite minimax problem is proposed and this algorithm is implemented in general algebraic modelling system. We present preliminary results of numerical experiments with well-known nonsmooth optimization test problems. We also compare the proposed algorithm with the algorithm that uses the exponential smoothing function as well as with the algorithm based on nonlinear programming reformulation of the finite minimax problem.     

Sampling Truncated Normal,Beta, and Gamma Densities

We consider the Bayesian analysis of constrained parameter and truncated data problems within a Gibbs sampling framework and concentrate on sampling truncated densities that arise as full conditional densities within the context of the Gibbs sampler. In particular, we restrict attention to the normal, beta, and gamma densities. We demonstrate that, in many instances, it is possible to introduce a latent variable which facilitates an easy solution to the problem. We also discuss a novel approach to sampling truncated densities via a “black-box” algorithm, based on the latent variable idea, valid outside of the context of a Gibbs sampler.     

An Adaptive Parallel Tempering Algorithm

Parallel tempering is a generic Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling method which allows good mixing with multimodal target distributions, where conventional Metropolis-Hastings algorithms often fail. The mixing properties of the sampler depend strongly on the choice of tuning parameters, such as the temperature schedule and the proposal distribution used for local exploration. We propose an adaptive algorithm with fixed number of temperatures which tunes both the temperature schedule and the parameters of the random-walk Metropolis kernel automatically. We prove the convergence of the adaptation and a strong law of large numbers for the algorithm under general conditions. We also prove as a side result the geometric ergodicity of the parallel tempering algorithm. We illustrate the performance of our method with examples. Our empirical findings indicate that the algorithm can cope well with different kinds of scenarios without prior tuning. Supplementary materials including the proofs and the Matlab implementation are available online.     

AN IMPLEMENTABLE ALGORITHM AND ITS CONVERGENCE FOR GLOBAL MINIMIZATION WITH CONSTRAINS

With the integral-level approach to global optimization, a class of discontinuous penalty functions is proposed to solve constrained minimization problems. In this paper we propose an implementable algorithm by means of the good point set of uniform distribution which conquers the default of Monte-Carlo method. At last we prove the convergence of the implementable algorithm.     

Sup-norm convergence rates for Lévy density estimation

In this paper, we consider projection estimates for Lévy densities in high-frequency setup. We give a unified treatment for different sets of basis functions and focus on the asymptotic properties of the maximal deviation distribution for these estimates. Our results are based on the idea to reformulate the problems in terms of Gaussian processes of some special type and to further analyze these Gaussian processes. In particular, we construct a sequence of excursion sets, which guarantees the convergence of the deviation distribution to the Gumbel distribution. We show that the exact rates of convergence presented in previous articles on this topic are logarithmic and construct the sequence of accompanying laws, which approximate the deviation distribution with polynomial rate.