Robust estimation in a nonlinear cointegration model

This paper considers the nonparametric M-estimator in a nonlinear cointegration type model. The local time density argument, which was developed by Phillips and Park (1998) [6] and Wang and Phillips (2009) [9], is applied to establish the asymptotic theory for the nonparametric M-estimator. The weak consistency and the asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator are established under mild conditions. Meanwhile, the asymptotic distribution of the local least squares estimator and the local least absolute distance estimator can be obtained as applications of our main results. Furthermore, an iterated procedure for obtaining the nonparametric M-estimator and a cross-validation bandwidth selection method are discussed, and some numerical examples are provided to show that the proposed methods perform well in the finite sample case.     

Sur l'estimateur des moindres carrés d'un modèle autorégressif fonctionnel

Assuming the stability of a nonlinear autoregressive process, we give simple conditions ensuring strong consistency, asymptotic normality and a law of the iterated logarithm for the least squares estimator. The last result yields an almost sure identification of the true model using a suitably penalized contrast.     

Difference based estimation for partially linear regression models with measurement errors

This paper is concerned with the estimating problem of the partially linear regression models where the linear covariates are measured with additive errors. A difference based estimation is proposed to estimate the parametric component. We show that the resulting estimator is asymptotically unbiased and achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound if the order of the difference tends to infinity. The asymptotic normality of the resulting estimator is established as well. Compared with the corrected profile least squares estimation, the proposed procedure avoids the bandwidth selection. In addition, the difference based estimation of the error variance is also considered. For the nonparametric component, the local polynomial technique is implemented. The finite sample properties of the developed methodology is investigated through simulation studies. An example of application is also illustrated.     

Strong laws for density estimators of bernstein type

Starting from the classical theorem of Weierstrass (and its modifications) on approximation of continuous functions by means of Bernstein polynomials a smoothed histogram type estimator is developed for estimating probability densities and its derivatives. Consistency results are obtained in form of various strong laws. In particular, one gets estimates for the rates for pointwise and uniform strong convergence of estimators for the derivatives. Moreover, for approximating the density itself the exact order of consistency is established. This is done by a law of iterated logarithm for pointwise approximation and by a law of logarithm in case of uniform approximation.This paper contains parts of the author's Habilitationsschrift written at the Department of Mathematics of the University of Ulm.     

On Least Squares Estimation for Stable Nonlinear AR Processes

Following a Markov chain approach, this paper establishes asymptotic properties of the least squares estimator in nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) models. Based on conditions ensuring the stability of the model and allowing the use of a strong law of large number for a wide class of functions, our approach improves some known results on strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator. The exact convergence rate is established by a law of the iterated logarithm. Based on this law and a generalized Akaike's information criterion, we build a strongly consistent procedure for selection of NAR models. Detailed results are given for familiar nonlinear AR models like exponential AR models, threshold models or multilayer feedforward perceptions.     

Empirical likelihood analysis of the Buckley-James estimator

The censored linear regression model, also referred to as the accelerated failure time (AFT) model when the logarithm of the survival time is used as the response variable, is widely seen as an alternative to the popular Cox model when the assumption of proportional hazards is questionable. Buckley and James [Linear regression with censored data, Biometrika 66 (1979) 429-436] extended the least squares estimator to the semiparametric censored linear regression model in which the error distribution is completely unspecified. The Buckley-James estimator performs well in many simulation studies and examples. The direct interpretation of the AFT model is also more attractive than the Cox model, as Cox has pointed out, in practical situations. However, the application of the Buckley-James estimation was limited in practice mainly due to its illusive variance. In this paper, we use the empirical likelihood method to derive a new test and confidence interval based on the Buckley-James estimator of the regression coefficient. A standard chi-square distribution is used to calculate the P-value and the confidence interval. The proposed empirical likelihood method does not involve variance estimation. It also shows much better small sample performance than some existing methods in our simulation studies.     

On an asymptotically more efficient estimation of the single-index model

In this note, we revisit the single-index model with heteroscedastic error, and recommend an estimating equation method in terms of transferring restricted least squares to unrestricted least squares: the estimator of the index parameter is asymptotically more efficient than existing estimators in the literature in the sense that it is of a smaller limiting variance.     

随机左截断数据下乘积限估计的强逼近及其应用

本文建立了左截断数据下乘积限估计的强表示结果,其误差项的收敛速度达到重对数律。作为应用,推出了乘积限估计的重对数律和强逼近等深刻结果。     

Optimal prediction for linear regression with infinitely many parameters

The problem of optimal prediction in the stochastic linear regression model with infinitely many parameters is considered. We suggest a prediction method that outperforms asymptotically the ordinary least squares predictor. Moreover, if the random errors are Gaussian, the method is asymptotically minimax over ellipsoids in ?₂. The method is based on a regularized least squares estimator with weights of the Pinsker filter. We also consider the case of dynamic linear regression, which is important in the context of transfer function modeling.     

Statistical inference for panel data semiparametric partially linear regression models with heteroscedastic errors

We consider a panel data semiparametric partially linear regression model with an unknown parameter vector for the linear parametric component, an unknown nonparametric function for the nonlinear component, and a one-way error component structure which allows unequal error variances (referred to as heteroscedasticity). We develop procedures to detect heteroscedasticity and one-way error component structure, and propose a weighted semiparametric least squares estimator (WSLSE) of the parametric component in the presence of heteroscedasticity and/or one-way error component structure. This WSLSE is asymptotically more efficient than the usual semiparametric least squares estimator considered in the literature. The asymptotic properties of the WSLSE are derived. The nonparametric component of the model is estimated by the local polynomial method. Some simulations are conducted to demonstrate the finite sample performances of the proposed testing and estimation procedures. An example of application on a set of panel data of medical expenditures in Australia is also illustrated.     

Asymptotic behavior of the empirical conditional value-at-risk

We study asymptotic behavior of the empirical conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). In particular, the Berry–Essen bound, the law of iterated logarithm, the moderate deviation principle and the large deviation principle for the empirical CVaR are obtained. We also give some numerical examples.     

分位点函数的光滑非参数估计的BAHADUR表示

文中对分位函数给出了具有更广泛应用的光滑分位估计,证明了该光滑分位估计的逐点和一致的Bahadur强表示定理;并由此结果推导了估计的重对数律,强逼近等深刻结果。     

The precise asymptotic behavior of parameter estimators in Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process

In the present paper, we study the asymptotic behavior for estimator of the drift parameter in an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The Lr-convergence rate and the precise asymptotics in the law of iterated logarithm and in the law of logarithm for the estimator are obtained. Moreover, we also get the complete moment convergence of this estimator. The main method of this paper is the deviation inequality for the quadratic functional.     

Étude asymptotique locale de l'estimateur par ondelettesA law of the iterated logarithm for wavelet density estimator

We state a pointwise central limit theorem for the linear wavelet density estimator in a more general setting than the result of Wu [12]. Furthermore, we also give a pointwise law of the iterated logarithm for this density estimator. Our proof of the law of the iterated logarithm uses the results of Mason [9] on the asymptotic behavior of the tail empirical process. To cite this article: A. Massiani, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, Ser. I 335 (2002) 553–556.     

非参数回归函数的随机窗宽核估计的重对数律

设(X,Y),(X_1,Y_1),(X_2,Y_2),…为 i.i.d.二维随机变量序列,具有联合分布F(x,y)及密度 f(x,y).X 的边际分布和密度分别记为 F_X(x)和 f_X(x).记 m(x)=E{Y|X=x)}为 Y 对 X 的回归函数.为估计 m(x),Nadaraya 和 watson 独立地引进了如下形式的核估计     

Asymptotics of Bayesian median loss estimation

We establish the consistency, asymptotic normality, and efficiency for estimators derived by minimizing the median of a loss function in a Bayesian context. We contrast this procedure with the behavior of two Frequentist procedures, the least median of squares (LMS) and the least trimmed squares (LTS) estimators, in regression problems. The LMS estimator is the Frequentist version of our estimator, and the LTS estimator approaches a median-based estimator as the trimming approaches 50% on each side. We argue that the Bayesian median-based method is a good tradeoff between the two Frequentist estimators.     

Statistical inference in a panel data semiparametric regression model with serially correlated errors

We consider a panel data semiparametric partially linear regression model with an unknown vector β of regression coefficients, an unknown nonparametric function g(·) for nonlinear component, and unobservable serially correlated errors. The correlated errors are modeled by a vector autoregressive process which involves a constant intraclass correlation. Applying the pilot estimators of β and g(·), we construct estimators of the autoregressive coefficients, the intraclass correlation and the error variance, and investigate their asymptotic properties. Fitting the error structure results in a new semiparametric two-step estimator of β, which is shown to be asymptotically more efficient than the usual semiparametric least squares estimator in terms of asymptotic covariance matrix. Asymptotic normality of this new estimator is established, and a consistent estimator of its asymptotic covariance matrix is presented. Furthermore, a corresponding estimator of g(·) is also provided. These results can be used to make asymptotically efficient statistical inference. Some simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performances of these proposed estimators.     

Functional semiparametric partially linear model with autoregressive errors

In this paper, we introduce a functional semiparametric model, where a real-valued random variable is explained by the sum of a unknown linear combination of the components of a multivariate random variable and an unknown transformation of a functional random variable. The errors can be autocorrelated. We focus here on the parametric estimation of the coefficients in the linear combination. First, we use a nonparametric kernel method to remove the effect of the functional explanatory variable. Then, we use generalized least squares approach to obtain an estimator of these coefficients. Under some technical assumptions, we prove consistency and asymptotic normality of our estimator. Finally, we present Monte Carlo simulations that illustrate these characteristics.     

Laws of the iterated logarithm and an almost sure invariance principle for mixing <Emphasis Type="Italic">B</Emphasis>-valued random variables and autoregressive processes

Under optimal moment conditions, we prove the compact law of the iterated logarithm and the almost sure invariance principle for ψ-mixing random variables with values in type 2 Banach spaces. These results, together with the bounded law of the iterated logarithm proved earlier by author, allow us to prove the same kind of results for the Banach space valued autoregressive processes with ψ-mixing innovations. The results for autoregressive processes can be considered as asymptotic properties of the estimator of mean.