An Optimal Trading Rule Under a Switchable Mean-Reversion Model

This work provides an optimal trading rule that allows buying and selling an asset sequentially over time. The asset price follows a switchable mean-reversion model with a Markovian jump. Such a model can be applied to assets with a “staircase” price behavior and yet is simple enough to allow an analytic solution. The objective is to determine a sequence of trading times to maximize an overall return. The corresponding value functions are characterized by a set of quasi-variational inequalities. A closed-form solution is obtained under suitable conditions. The sequence of trading times can be given in terms of a set of threshold levels. Finally, numerical examples are given to demonstrate the results.     

Profit optimization for cattle growing in a randomly fluctuating environment

A class of stochastic differential equation models was applied to describe the evolution of the weight of Mertolengo cattle. We have determined the optimal mean profit obtained by selling an animal at the cattle market, using two approaches. One consists in determining the optimal selling age (independently of the weight) and the other consists in selling the animal when a fixed optimal weight is achieved for the first time (independently of the age). The profit probability distribution can be computed for such optimal age/weight. For typical market values, we observed that the second approach achieves a higher optimal mean profit compared with the first one, and, in most cases, even provides a lower standard deviation.     

A model for speculation in a dynamic economy

The paper deals with speculation strategies in a dynamic economy, where “speculation” means participating in a market with the intention to gain a reward by first buying an item and thereafter selling it at a possibly higher price. By assuming that the states of the economy form a Markov chain the problem is modeled as a discrete time Markov decision process. The optimal strategies (which are pairs of stopping times) are identified. Under quite general conditions the optimal rule for the selling process turns out to be a control limit policy in both state of economy and time. Techniques for the computation of optimal strategies are presented; some numerical examples are also discussed. For a static economy closed-form solutions are given     

A maximum principle for an optimal control problem with integral constraints

In this paper, necessary corditions are obtained for an optimal control problem whose state variables are given in terms of integral equations. The conditions are obtained separately for Volterra equations and Fredholm equations. The main result for each case is the maximum principle and multiplier rule. For the Volterra equations, transversality conditions are obtained.     

Minimax perfect stopping rules for selling an asset near its ultimate maximum

We study the problem of selling an asset near its ultimate maximum in the minimax setting. The regret-based notion of a perfect stopping time is introduced. A perfect stopping time is uniquely characterized by its optimality properties and has the following form: one should sell the asset if its price deviates from the running maximum by a certain time-dependent quantity. The related selling rule improves any earlier one and cannot be improved by further delay. The results, which are applicable to a quite general price model, are illustrated by several examples.     

基于收益共享的多周期易变质产品供应链协调模型

研究了单个供应商与单个零售商组成的易变质产品供应链系统在有限计划期内的协调问题。考虑到市场需求会同时受到多种因素的影响,构建了市场需求率依赖于销售价格与当前库存水平且随时间呈现一般连续变化的需求函数。将零售商的订购次数、销售价格以及供应商的批发价格作为决策变量,分别求解了集中式与分散式供应链系统下的最优策略。通过与分散式决策的利润值进行比较,得出集中式决策能够使得供应链系统的利润值至少增加1/3。利用收益共享契约机制协调此系统,求解了供应链实现完美协调时收益共享因子的取值区间。最后通过算例验证了理论结果并分析了相关参数变化对系统协调的影响。     

Risk-sensitive stopping problems for continuous-time Markov chains

In this paper we consider stopping problems for continuous-time Markov chains under a general risk-sensitive optimization criterion for problems with finite and infinite time horizon. More precisely our aim is to maximize the certainty equivalent of the stopping reward minus cost over the time horizon. We derive optimality equations for the value functions and prove the existence of optimal stopping times. The exponential utility is treated as a special case. In contrast to risk-neutral stopping problems it may be optimal to stop between jumps of the Markov chain. We briefly discuss the influence of the risk sensitivity on the optimal stopping time and consider a special house selling problem as an example.     

退货情形下基于替代率的两产品联合订货决策研究

研究了一类在产品订货模型中考虑客户退货和产品间替代的两产品联合最优订货决策问题.假定客户以一概率退回其所购产品,退货产品经修复后可重新在市场上进行销售,销售期末未售出的商品只能在二级市场上降价处理,且不同产品间存在替代关系,销售商以自身利润最大化为目标确定两产品的订货量,得到其最优订货量及一些性质.研究结果表明:在允许退货的背景下,替代策略的采用将会进一步提高销售商利润.     

Optimal investment with transaction costs based on exponential utility function: a parabolic double obstacle problem

This paper concerns optimal investment problem with proportional transaction costs and finite time horizon based on exponential utility function. Using a partial differential equation approach, we reveal that the problem is equivalent to a parabolic double obstacle problem involving two free boundaries that correspond to the optimal buying and selling policies. Numerical examples are obtained by the binomial method.     

考虑线下渠道时销售商在团购网站上的最优销售策略研究

基于团购网站和销售商的典型合作模式,考虑了团购网站和线下市场的相互影响,用非线性优化理论为基础以销售商制定团购上限和团购项目定价为决策变量,考虑团购价格和最低团购数量的约束条件,建立模型优化,求解出销售商推出团购项目的最优策略。考虑到团购网站下限和团购网站销售成本以及网上销售的广告效用,分析了销售商是否应该制定团购上限,如何结合团购项目定价制定团购上限。探讨了在线低价限量销售的优势,以及顾客转移购买率和团购下限对销售商策略选择的影响。通过和单一线下渠道的最优销售策略相比较,得出销售商推出团购项目的前提条件。同时为团购网站运营商如何引导销售商推出低价团购项目提供了管理启示。     

Conjugate gradient techniques for the optimal control evolution dam problem

This paper considers the numerical simulation of optimal control evolution dam problem by using conjugate gradient method.The paper considers the free boundary value problem related to time dependent fluid flow in a homogeneous earth rectangular dam.The dam is taken to be sufficiently long that the flow is considered to be two dimensional.On the left and right walls of the dam there is a reservoir of fluid at a level dependent on time.This problem can be transformed into a variational inequality on a fixed domain.The numerical techniques we use are based on a linear finite element method to approximate the state equations and a conjugate gradient algorithm to solve the discrete optimal control problem.This algorithm is based on Armijo's rule in the unconstrained optimization theory.The convergence of the discrete optimal solutions to the continuous optimal solutions,and the convergence of the conjugate gradient algorithm are proved.A numerical example is given to determine the location of the minimum surface     

An optimal production-inventory model for deteriorating items with multiple-market demand

The global markets of today offer more selling opportunities to the deteriorating items’ manufacturers, but also pose new challenges in production and inventory planning. From a production management standpoint, opportunities to exploit the difference in the timing of the selling season between geographically dispersed markets for deteriorating items are important to improving a firm’s profitability. In this paper, we examined the above issue with an insightful production-inventory model of a deteriorating items manufacturer selling goods to multiple-markets with different selling seasons. We also provided a solution procedure to find the optimal replenishment schedule for raw materials and the optimal production plan for finished products. A numerical example was then used to illustrate the model and the solution procedure. Finally, sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to major parameters was carried out.     

考虑保质期的非即时易腐品最优订购与定价决策

针对有保质期约束的非即时易腐品,零售商可以在产品非腐败阶段和腐败阶段进行差异化定价来调整市场需求。即零售商可以调整产品非腐败阶段的定价策略,使得非即时易腐品在进入腐败阶段之前全部售出;或者在产品腐败阶段降低零售价格以刺激市场需求。因此,在需求依赖价格的假设下,本文研究了零售商关于有保质期约束的非即时易腐品的最优订购与定价决策。通过分析零售商单位时间利润函数的理论性质,得到了零售商的最优订购与定价策略。基于线性和指数型两种需求函数形式进行数值算例,可以发现针对保质期较长或者非腐败阶段较长的易腐品,零售商会延长订货周期来增加销售收入。特别是在指数型需求函数情境下,当市场需求与零售价格高度相关时,零售商更有意愿降价来刺激销量,从而使得易腐品在非腐败阶段内销售完毕。     

Maximizing revenue in the airline industry under one-way pricing

The paper describes a methodology that has been implemented in a major British airline to find the optimal price to charge for airline tickets under one-way pricing. An analytical model has been developed to describe the buying behaviour of customers for flights over the selling period. Using this model and a standard analytical method for constrained optimization, we can find an expression for the optimal price structure for a flight. The expected number of bookings made on each day of the selling period and in each fare class given these prices can then be easily calculated. A simulation model is used to find the confidence ranges on the numbers of bookings and these ranges can be used to regulate the sale of tickets. A procedure to update the price structure based on the remaining capacity has also been developed.     

Optimal control problems with retardations and restricted phase coordinates

In this paper, we study necessary conditions for an optimal control problem both with and without restricted phase coordinates. The systems are specified by differential-difference equations with their allowed right-hand sides being a quasiconvex family. The multiplier rule developed by Neustadt is used, and maximum principles in integral form as well as in pointwise form are obtained.This research was supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under Contract No. AF-AFOSR-1029-67A and was prepared by the author in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Ph.D. degree. The author wishes to express his sincere gratitude to his academic advisor Dr. Lucien W. Neustadt for his suggestion of this problem, invaluable consultation, and support throughout this research.     

零售商主导的模糊供应链博弈——考虑销售努力的情形

以包含一个制造商与一个零售商的两级供应链为研究对象,考虑零售商居于主导地位并付出销售努力时供应链各成员的决策。结合经济环境的不确定性,将市场需求函数和制造商的制造成本、零售商的经营成本视为模糊变量;运用斯塔克尔伯格模型刻画零售商和制造商之间的博弈过程,并引入期望值模型、机会约束模型来解决最优决策问题;通过一个数值算例证明了供应链博弈模型的有效性。研究表明,在均衡结果中,考虑到零售商所承担的销售努力成本,其总体期望值利润相比于制造商而言偏低,但单位产品边际利润较高。原因在于,零售商的主导地位使其不仅通过销售努力提高产品销量,提高了供应链的整体利润,同时也能够采用压低批发价格的方式,使自身在供应链中获取更多收益。     

变循环发动机模型的求解算法研究

采用部件法建立了变循环发动机的多维非线性隐式方程组模型,模型具有隐式性,因而求解过程复杂,收敛困难.针对上述问题,采用遗传算法和牛顿-拉夫逊法进行模型求解,提出了算法的有效性评价指标:初值敏感性、收敛性和稳定性.对两种算法进行有效性评价.针对发动机工作性能最优化问题,建立了多目标模型,用遗传算法进行求解,并分析了相关变量随马赫数变化的规律.结果可为变循环发动机模型求解算法的选择与设计提供参考.     

Maximum principles for control systems described by measure functional differential equations

Three optimal control problems involving measure functional differential equations are considered. The necessary conditions, in the form of the Pontryagin maximum principle, for an optimal control are obtained. This is accomplished by the application of a theorem by Debovistskii-Milyutin. A simple example is also illustrated to show the applicability of the results obtained.     

Optimal selling strategy with a large block of stock

In this paper, we develop an optimal stock selling strategy with the stochastic upper bound of selling rate over an infinite time horizon. Moreover, the temporary and permanent price impact are considered. We treat the problem by using a fluid model. In the model that the number of shares is treated as fluid (continuous) and the overall liquidation is dictated by the rates of selling over time. The goal is to maximize the overall return under state constraints. The corresponding value function with the selling strategies is shown to be continuous and the unique viscosity solution to the associated HJB equation. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the result.     

The effect of demand uncertainty in a price-setting newsvendor model

We study the effects of demand uncertainty on optimal decisions and the expected profit of a price-setting newsvendor who faces either additive or multiplicative stochastic demand. Our key findings are as follows. (1) A stochastically larger demand may even lead to a smaller order size and a lower profit when price is endogenous. (2) A stochastically larger demand will lead to a higher selling price in general for the additive demand case but to a lower selling price under certain mild conditions for the multiplicative demand case. Moreover, if the larger demand can be represented by a transformation of the lower one, it will lead to a higher expected profit for both demand cases. However, except for the setting with a zero shortage cost, a larger demand may not necessarily result in a higher expected profit in general. (3) Under mild conditions, a less variable demand will lead to a higher and lower selling price for the additive and multiplicative demand case, respectively, and a higher expected profit for both cases.