Global analysis of a multi-group animal epidemic model with indirect infection and time delay

The transmission mechanism of some animal diseases is complex because of the multiple transmission pathways and multiple-group interactions, which lead to the limited understanding of the dynamics of these diseases transmission. In this paper, a delay multi-group dynamic model is proposed in which time delay is caused by the latency of infection. Under the biologically motivated assumptions, the basic reproduction number $R_0$ is derived and then the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium is analyzed by Lyapunov functionals and a graph-theoretic approach as for time delay. The results show the global properties of equilibria only depend on the basic reproductive number $R_0$: the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if $R_0\leq 1$; if $R_0>1$, the endemic equilibrium exists and is globally asymptotically stable, which implies time delay span has no effect on the stability of equilibria. Finally, some specific examples are taken to illustrate the utilization of the results and then numerical simulations are used for further discussion. The numerical results show time delay model may experience periodic oscillation behaviors, implying that the spread of animal diseases depends largely on the prevention and control strategies of all sub-populations.     

Mathematical Analysis of SIR Epidemic Model with Piecewise Infection Rate and Control Strategies

The limitation of contact between susceptible and infected individuals plays an important role in decreasing the transmission of infectious diseases. Prevention and control strategies contribute to minimizing the transmission rate. In this paper, we propose SIR epidemic model with delayed control strategies, in which delay describes the response and effect time. We study the dynamic properties of the epidemic model from three aspects: steady states, stability and bifurcation. By eliminating the existence of limit cycles, we establish the global stability of the endemic equilibrium, when the delay is ignored. Further, we find that the delayed effect on the infection rate does not affect the stability of the disease-free equilibrium, but it can destabilize the endemic equilibrium and bring Hopf bifurcation. Theoretical results show that the prevention and control strategies can effectively reduce the final number of infected individuals in the population. Numerical results corroborate the theoretical ones.     

Dynamic behavior of a delay cholera model with constant infectious period

In this paper, a delay cholera model with constant infectious period is investigated. By analyzing the characteristic equations, the local stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium of the model is established. It is proved that if the basic reproductive number $\mathcal{R}_0>1$, the system is permanent. If $\mathcal{R}_0<1$, by means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium. If $\mathcal{R}_0>1$, also by means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the main theoretical results.     

一类含时滞SIS流行病模型的全局稳定性

该文研究了一类含有限分布时滞的SIS流行病模型, 利用李亚普诺夫泛函的方法,得到了地方病平衡点和无病平衡点全局稳定的充要条件. 揭示了时滞对平衡点稳定性的影响 .      

一类具有常数输入和垂直传染的SIRI传染病模型

建立了一类易感者及染病者均有常数输入,疾病具有垂直传染以及一般形式饱和接触率的SIRI传染病模型,分别研究了p=0,0相似文献   

Global properties of a general dynamic model for animal diseases: A case study of brucellosis and tuberculosis transmission

Animal diseases such as brucellosis and tuberculosis can be transmitted through an environmentally mediated mechanism, but the topics of most modeling work are based on infectious contact and direct transmission, which leads to the limited understanding of the transmission dynamics of these diseases. In this paper, we propose a new deterministic model which incorporates general incidences, various stages of infection and a general shedding rate of the pathogen to analyze the dynamics of these diseases. Under the biologically motivated assumptions, we derive the basic reproduction number _R0$R_0$, show the uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium, and prove the global asymptotically stability of the equilibria. Some specific examples are used to illustrate the utilization of our results. In addition, we elaborate the epidemiological significance of these results, which are very important for the prevention and control of animal diseases.     

Dynamical behavior of a delay virus dynamics model with CTL immune response

In this paper, the dynamical behavior of a virus dynamics model with CTL immune response and time delay is studied. Time delay is used to describe the time between the infected cell and the emission of viral particles on a cellular level. The effect of time delay on stability of the equilibria of the CTL immune response model has been studied and sufficient criteria for local asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium, immune-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium and global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium are given. Some conditions for Hopf bifurcation around immune-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium to occur are also obtained by using the time delay as a bifurcation parameter. Numerical simulation with some hypothetical sets of data has been done to support the analytical findings.     

具有媒体饱和效应影响的时滞SIS模型研究

媒体报道对疾病的预防和控制有着重要的作用,其可以减少人们感染疾病的机会.通过建立具有媒体饱和的传染病时滞模型来刻画媒体报道对感染率的影响,首先计算出无病平衡点和当R_01时存在唯一的地方病平衡点;其次,分析了平衡点的稳定性,并得到当参数满足一定条件时,时滞τ超过临界值τ_0,地方病平衡点处会出现Hopf分支;最后,通过数值模拟来验证理论分析.     

Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of an Epidemic Model with Quarantine, Latent and Media Coverage

Epidemic models are very important in today''s analysis of diseases. In this paper, we propose and analyze an epidemic model incorporating quarantine, latent, media coverage and time delay. We analyze the local stability of either the disease-free and endemic equilibrium in terms of the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ as a threshold parameter. We prove that if $\mathcal{R}_{0}<1,$ the time delay in media coverage can not affect the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and if $\mathcal{R}_{0}>1$, the model has at least one positive endemic equilibrium, the stability will be affected by the time delay and some conditions for Hopf bifurcation around infected equilibrium to occur are obtained by using the time delay as a bifurcation parameter. We illustrate our results by some numerical simulations such that we show that a proper application of quarantine plays a critical role in the clearance of the disease, and therefore a direct contact between people plays a critical role in the transmission of the disease.     

Stability of stochastic SIRS epidemic models with saturated incidence rates and delay

In this article, we consider stochastic susceptible-infected-removed-susceptible (SIRS) epidemic models with saturated incidence rates and delay. We investigate the stochastic stability in probability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria for the stochastic dynamic model with variability in the natural death rate, and the stochastic stability in probability of the endemic equilibrium for the dynamic model when the variability in the environment is proportional to a deviation between the state of the system and the endemic equilibrium. The numerical experiments are provided to support our theoretical results.     

Two time-delay dynamic model on the transmission of malicious signals in wireless sensor network

Deployed in a hostile environment, motes of a Wireless sensor network (WSN) could be easily compromised by the attackers because of several constraints such as limited processing capabilities, memory space, and limited battery life time etc. While transmitting the data to their neighbour motes within the network, motes are easily compromised due to resource constraints. Here time delay can play an efficient role to reduce the adversary effect on motes. In this paper, we propose an epidemic model SEIR (Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered) with two time delays to describe the transmission dynamics of malicious signals in wireless sensor network. The first delay accounts for an exposed (latent) period while the second delay is for the temporary immunity period due to multiple worm outbreaks. The dynamical behaviour of worm-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium is shown from the point of stability which switches under some threshold condition specified by the basic reproduction number. Our results show that the global properties of equilibria also depends on the threshold condition and that latent and temporary immunity period in a mote does not affect the stability, but they play a positive role to control malicious attack. Moreover, numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical analysis.     

Qualitative analysis on a diffusive SIS epidemic system with logistic source and spontaneous infection in a heterogeneous environment

In this paper, we consider an SIS epidemic reaction–diffusion model with spontaneous infection and logistic source in a heterogeneous environment. The uniform bounds of solutions are established, and the global asymptotic stability of the constant endemic equilibrium is discussed in the case of homogeneous environment. This paper aims to analyze the asymptotic profile of endemic equilibria (when it exists) as the diffusion rate of the susceptible or infected population is small or large. Our results on this new model reveal that varying total population and spontaneous infection can enhance persistence of infectious disease, which may provide some implications on disease control and prediction.     

Stability Analysis of an SEIS Epidemic Model with Nonlinear Incidence and Time Delay

In this paper, an SEIS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and time delay is investigated. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of each of feasible equilibria of the model is established. By using suitable Lyapunov functional and LaSalle's invariance principle, it is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less than unity. If the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, by means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are derived for the global stability of the endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the theoretical results.     

Dynamics of an epidemic model with relapse and delay

In this paper, we consider a new epidemiological model with delay and relapse phenomena. Firstly, a basic reproduction number $R_0$ is identified, which serves as a threshold parameter for the stability of the equilibria of the model. Then, beginning with the delay-free model, the global asymptotic stability of the equilibria is obtained through the construction of suitable Lyapunov functions. For the delay model, the stability of the positive equilibrium and the existence of the local Hopf bifurcation are discussed. Furthermore, the application of the normal form theory and center manifold theorem is used to determine the direction and stability of these Hopf bifurcations. Finally, we shed light on corresponding biological implications from a numerical perspective. It turns out that time delay affects the stability of the positive equilibrium, leading to the occurrence of periodic oscillations and disease recurrence.     

Global analysis for a delayed SIV model with direct and environmental transmissions

In this paper, we propose a new SIV epidemic model with time delay, which also involves both direct and environmental transmissions. For such model, we first introduce the basic reproduction number $\mathscr{R}$ by using the next generation matrix. And then global stability of the equilibria is discussed by means of Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle''s invariance principle for delay differential equations, which shows that the infection-free equilibrium of the system is globally asymptotically stable if $\mathscr{R}<1$ and the epidemic equilibrium of the system is globally asymptotically stable for $\m     

Global dynamics of a delayed eco‐epidemiological model with Holling type‐III functional response

In this paper, an eco‐epidemiological model with Holling type‐III functional response and a time delay representing the gestation period of the predators is investigated. In the model, it is assumed that the predator population suffers a transmissible disease. The disease basic reproduction number is obtained. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of each of feasible equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcations at the disease‐free equilibrium and the endemic‐coexistence equilibrium are established, respectively. By using the persistence theory on infinite dimensional systems, it is proved that if the disease basic reproduction number is greater than unity, the system is permanent. By means of Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle's invariance principle, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global stability of the endemic‐coexistence equilibrium, the disease‐free equilibrium and the predator‐extinction equilibrium of the system, respectively. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the dynamics of avian influenza with nonlinear recovery rate and psychological effect

In this paper, a SI-SEIR type avian influenza epidemic model with psychological effect, nonlinear recovery rate and saturation inhibition effect is formulated to study the transmission and control of avian influenza virus. By setting the basic reproductive number as the threshold parameter and constructing Lyapunov function, Dulac function and using the Li-Muldowney''s geometry approach, we prove the local and global stability of disease-free equilibria and endemic equilibrium. Theoretical analysis are carried out to show the role of the saturation inhibition effect, psychological effect and effective medical resources in this model, and numerical simulations are also given to verify the results.     

Dynamical Analysis of a Delayed SIQS Epidemic Model on Scale-free Networks

In this paper, we establish a novel delayed SIQS epidemic model on scale-free networks, where time delay represents the average quarantine period. Through mathematical analysis, we present the basic reproduction number $R_{0}$. Then, we provide the global asymptotical stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the local asymptotical stability of the endemic equilibrium. Finally, we perform numerical simulations to verify the correctness of the main results and analyze the sensitivity of parameters. Our research shows that when $R_0>1$, lengthening the quarantine period can slow the spread of the disease and reduce the number of infected individuals.     

一类具有时滞的流行病模型分析

讨论了一类带有时滞的SE IS流行病模型,并讨论了阈值、平衡点和稳定性.模型是一个具有确定潜伏期的时滞微分方程模型,在这里我们得到了各类平衡点存在条件的阈值R0;当R0<1时,只有无病平衡点P0,且是全局渐近稳定的;当R0>1时,除无病平衡点外还存在唯一的地方病平衡点Pe,且该平衡点是绝对稳定的.     

The stability of a diffusion model of plankton allelopathy with spatio–temporal delays

A reaction–diffusion system with non-local delay is proposed to describe two competitive planktonic growths in aquatic ecology. The local and global stability of the axial equilibria as well as the positive equilibrium are discussed. Our results show that the delay has no effect on the stability of the axial equilibria; on the other hand, the positive equilibrium can be induced to be locally unstable by the delay. Finally, the corresponding numerical simulations are also demonstrated.