Conditional value at risk and related linear programming models for portfolio optimization

Many risk measures have been recently introduced which (for discrete random variables) result in Linear Programs (LP). While some LP computable risk measures may be viewed as approximations to the variance (e.g., the mean absolute deviation or the Gini’s mean absolute difference), shortfall or quantile risk measures are recently gaining more popularity in various financial applications. In this paper we study LP solvable portfolio optimization models based on extensions of the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) measure. The models use multiple CVaR measures thus allowing for more detailed risk aversion modeling. We study both the theoretical properties of the models and their performance on real-life data.     

Computational aspects of minimizing conditional value-at-risk

We consider optimization problems for minimizing conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) from a computational point of view, with an emphasis on financial applications. As a general solution approach, we suggest to reformulate these CVaR optimization problems as two-stage recourse problems of stochastic programming. Specializing the L-shaped method leads to a new algorithm for minimizing conditional value-at-risk. We implemented the algorithm as the solver CVaRMin. For illustrating the performance of this algorithm, we present some comparative computational results with two kinds of test problems. Firstly, we consider portfolio optimization problems with 5 random variables. Such problems involving conditional value at risk play an important role in financial risk management. Therefore, besides testing the performance of the proposed algorithm, we also present computational results of interest in finance. Secondly, with the explicit aim of testing algorithm performance, we also present comparative computational results with randomly generated test problems involving 50 random variables. In all our tests, the experimental solver, based on the new approach, outperformed by at least one order of magnitude all general-purpose solvers, with an accuracy of solution being in the same range as that with the LP solvers. János Mayer: Financial support by the national center of competence in research "Financial Valuation and Risk Management" is gratefully acknowledged. The national centers in research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation on behalf of the federal authorities.     

Risk neutral and risk averse power optimization in electricity networks with dispersed generation

Models and algorithms for risk neutral and risk averse power optimization under uncertainty are presented. The approach differs from previous ones by incorporating the transmission network explicitly.     

An algorithm for stochastic programs with first-order dominance constraints induced by linear recourse

We derive a cutting plane decomposition method for stochastic programs with first-order dominance constraints induced by linear recourse models with continuous variables in the second stage.     

Quantitative Stability Analysis of Two-Stage Stochastic Linear Programs with Full Random Recourse

Abstract

In this paper, we apply the parametric linear programing technique and pseudo metrics to study the quantitative stability of the two-stage stochastic linear programing problem with full random recourse. Under the simultaneous perturbation of the cost vector, coefficient matrix, and right-hand side vector, we first establish the locally Lipschitz continuity of the optimal value function and the boundedness of optimal solutions of parametric linear programs. On the basis of these results, we deduce the locally Lipschitz continuity and the upper bound estimation of the objective function of the two-stage stochastic linear programing problem with full random recourse. Then by adopting different pseudo metrics, we obtain the quantitative stability results of two-stage stochastic linear programs with full random recourse which improve the current results under the partial randomness in the second stage problem. Finally, we apply these stability results to the empirical approximation of the two-stage stochastic programing model, and the rate of convergence is presented.     

Convergent Cutting-Plane and Partial-Sampling Algorithm for Multistage Stochastic Linear Programs with Recourse

We propose an algorithm for multistage stochastic linear programs with recourse where random quantities in different stages are independent. The algorithm approximates successively expected recourse functions by building up valid cutting planes to support these functions from below. In each iteration, for the expected recourse function in each stage, one cutting plane is generated using the dual extreme points of the next-stage problem that have been found so far. We prove that the algorithm is convergent with probability one.     

Newsvendor solutions via conditional value-at-risk minimization

In this paper, we consider the minimization of the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), a most preferable risk measure in financial risk management, in the context of the well-known single-period newsvendor problem, which is originally formulated as the maximization of the expected profit or the minimization of the expected cost. We show that downside risk measures including the CVaR are tractable in the problem due to their convexity, and consequently, under mild assumptions on the probability distribution of products’ demand, we provide analytical solutions or linear programming (LP) formulation of the minimization of the CVaR measures defined with two different loss functions. Numerical examples are also exhibited, clarifying the difference among the models analyzed in this paper, and demonstrating the efficiency of the LP solutions.     

Deviation Measures in Linear Two-Stage Stochastic Programming

We consider a linear two-stage stochastic program. Whereas optimization in the traditional setting is based solely on expectation, we include risk measures reflecting dispersions of the random objective. Presenting the mean-risk models, we aim to extend existing results for the expectation-based model. In particular, we discuss structural properties such as continuity, differentiability and convexity and address stability issues. Furthermore, we propose algorithmic treatment with a slight variation of the L-shaped method     

Conditional value-at-risk in portfolio optimization: Coherent but fragile

We evaluate conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) as a risk measure in data-driven portfolio optimization. We show that portfolios obtained by solving mean-CVaR and global minimum CVaR problems are unreliable due to estimation errors of CVaR and/or the mean, which are magnified by optimization. This problem is exacerbated when the tail of the return distribution is made heavier. We conclude that CVaR, a coherent risk measure, is fragile in portfolio optimization due to estimation errors.     

An exact method for constrained maximization of the conditional value-at-risk of a class of stochastic submodular functions

We consider a class of risk-averse submodular maximization problems (RASM) where the objective is the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of a random nondecreasing submodular function at a given risk level. We propose valid inequalities and an exact general method for solving RASM under the assumption that we have an efficient oracle that computes the CVaR of the random function. We demonstrate the proposed method on a stochastic set covering problem that admits an efficient CVaR oracle for the random coverage function.     

Automatic Formulation of Stochastic Programs Via an Algebraic Modeling Language

This paper presents an open source tool that automatically generates the so-called deterministic equivalent in stochastic programming. The tool is based on the algebraic modeling language ampl. The user is only required to provide the deterministic version of the stochastic problem and the information on the stochastic process, either as scenarios or as a transitions-based event tree.     

Stochastic second-order cone programming: Applications models

Second-order cone programs are a class of convex optimization problems. We refer to them as deterministic second-order cone programs (DSCOPs) since data defining them are deterministic. In DSOCPs we minimize a linear objective function over the intersection of an affine set and a product of second-order (Lorentz) cones. Stochastic programs have been studied since 1950s as a tool for handling uncertainty in data defining classes of optimization problems such as linear and quadratic programs. Stochastic second-order cone programs (SSOCPs) with recourse is a class of optimization problems that defined to handle uncertainty in data defining DSOCPs. In this paper we describe four application models leading to SSOCPs.     

Superquantile regression with applications to buffered reliability,uncertainty quantification,and conditional value-at-risk

The paper presents a generalized regression technique centered on a superquantile (also called conditional value-at-risk) that is consistent with that coherent measure of risk and yields more conservatively fitted curves than classical least-squares and quantile regression. In contrast to other generalized regression techniques that approximate conditional superquantiles by various combinations of conditional quantiles, we directly and in perfect analog to classical regression obtain superquantile regression functions as optimal solutions of certain error minimization problems. We show the existence and possible uniqueness of regression functions, discuss the stability of regression functions under perturbations and approximation of the underlying data, and propose an extension of the coefficient of determination R-squared for assessing the goodness of fit. The paper presents two numerical methods for solving the error minimization problems and illustrates the methodology in several numerical examples in the areas of uncertainty quantification, reliability engineering, and financial risk management.     

Solving Stochastic Linear Programs with Restricted Recourse Using Interior Point Methods

In this paper we present a specialized matrix factorization procedure for computing the dual step in a primal-dual path-following interior point algorithm for solving two-stage stochastic linear programs with restricted recourse. The algorithm, based on the Birge-Qi factorization technique, takes advantage of both the dual block-angular structure of the constraint matrix and of the special structure of the second-stage matrices involved in the model. Extensive computational experiments on a set of test problems have been conducted in order to evaluate the performance of the developed code. The results are very promising, showing that the code is competitive with state-of-the-art optimizers.     

A robust approach based on conditional value-at-risk measure to statistical learning problems

In statistical learning problems, measurement errors in the observed data degrade the reliability of estimation. There exist several approaches to handle those uncertainties in observations. In this paper, we propose to use the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) measure in order to depress influence of measurement errors, and investigate the relation between the resulting CVaR minimization problems and some existing approaches in the same framework. For the CVaR minimization problems which include the computation of integration, we apply Monte Carlo sampling method and obtain their approximate solutions. The approximation error bound and convergence property of the solution are proved by Vapnik and Chervonenkis theory. Numerical experiments show that the CVaR minimization problem can achieve fairly good estimation results, compared with several support vector machines, in the presence of measurement errors.     

条件平均场随机微分方程的最优控制问题

作者研究了一个条件平均场随机微分方程的最优控制问题.这种方程和某些部分信息下的随机最优控制问题有关,并且可以看做是平均场随机微分方程的推广.作者以庞特里雅金最大值原理的形式给出最优控制满足的必要和充分条件.此外,文中给出一个线性二次最优控制问题来说明理论结果的应用.     

Second-order stochastic dominance constrained portfolio optimization: Theory and computational tests

Due to the definition of second-order stochastic dominance (SSD) in terms of utility theory, portfolio optimization with SSD constraints is of major practical interest. We contribute to the field in two ways: first, we present a self-contained theory with some new results and new proofs of known results; second, we perform a set of tests for computational efficiency. We provide new and simple arguments for the formulation of SSD constraints in a mathematical programming framework. For many individuals, an SSD constraint may seem too severe wherefore various relaxations (ASSD), have been proposed. We introduce yet another relaxation, directional SSD, where a candidate portfolio is admissible if a step from the benchmark in the direction of the candidate yields a dominating portfolio. Optimal step size depends on individual preferences reflected by the objective function. We compare computational efficiency of seven approaches for SD constrained portfolio problems, including SSD and ASSD constrained cases.     

Conditional minimum volume ellipsoid with application to multiclass discrimination

In this paper, we present a new formulation for constructing an n-dimensional ellipsoid by generalizing the computation of the minimum volume covering ellipsoid. The proposed ellipsoid construction is associated with a user-defined parameter β∈[0,1), and formulated as a convex optimization based on the CVaR minimization technique proposed by Rockafellar and Uryasev (J. Bank. Finance 26: 1443–1471, 2002). An interior point algorithm for the solution is developed by modifying the DRN algorithm of Sun and Freund (Oper. Res. 52(5):690–706, 2004) for the minimum volume covering ellipsoid. By exploiting the solution structure, the associated parametric computation can be performed in an efficient manner. Also, the maximization of the normal likelihood function can be characterized in the context of the proposed ellipsoid construction, and the likelihood maximization can be generalized with parameter β. Motivated by this fact, the new ellipsoid construction is examined through a multiclass discrimination problem. Numerical results are given, showing the nice computational efficiency of the interior point algorithm and the capability of the proposed generalization.     

Effective location models for sorting recyclables in public management

The recycling of urban solid wastes is a critical point for the “closing supply chains” of many products, mainly when their value cannot be completely recovered after use. In addition to environmental aspects, the process of recycling involves technical, economic, social and political challenges for public management. For most of the urban solid waste, the management of the end-of-life depends on selective collection to start the recycling process. For this reason, an efficient selective collection has become a mainstream tool in the Brazilian National Solid Waste Policy. In this paper, we study effective models that might support the location planning of sorting centers in a medium-sized Brazilian city that has been discussing waste management policies over the past few years. The main goal of this work is to provide an optimal location planning design for recycling urban solid wastes that fall within the financial budget agreed between the municipal government and the National Bank for Economic and Social Development. Moreover, facility planning involves deciding on the best sites for locating sorting centers along the four-year period as well as finding ways to meet the demand for collecting recyclable materials, given that economic factors, consumer behavior and environmental awareness are inherently uncertain future outcomes. To deal with these issues, we propose a deterministic version of the classical capacity facility location problem, and both a two-stage recourse formulation and risk-averse models to reduce the variability of the second-stage costs. Numerical results suggest that it is possible to improve the current selective collection, as well as hedge against data uncertainty by using stochastic and risk-averse optimization models.