Decision support for spare parts acquisition in post product life cycle

A major task in service management is the timely and cost efficient provision of spare parts for durable products. This especially holds good, when the regular production of the product, its components and parts has been discontinued, but customer service still has to be guaranteed for quite a long time. In such post product life cycle period, three options are available to organize the spare parts acquisition, namely (i) setting up a single large order within the final lot of regular production, (ii) performing extra production runs until the end of service and (iii) using remanufacturing to gain spare parts from used products. These three options are characterized by different cost and flexibility properties. Due to the time-variability and uncertainty of demands for spare parts and also that of the returns of used products, it is a challenging task to find out the optimal combination of these three options. In this paper we show how this problem can be modeled and solved by Decision Tree and stochastic Dynamic Programming procedure. Based on the Dynamic Programming approach a heuristic method is proposed, which can be employed to come up with a simple solution procedure for real-world spare parts acquisition problems during the post product life cycle. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the application of the solution methods described in the paper.     

A new partial pooling structure for spare parts networks

Motivated by real-life spare parts networks, we introduce a new spare parts inventory model with lateral transshipment. We consider a multi-item, multi-location, single-echelon system with base stock control and aggregate mean waiting time constraints. The local warehouses are divided into two types: main and regular local warehouses. Lateral transshipment is allowed from main local warehouses only. A practical advantage of this structure is that only a limited number of local warehouses has to be equipped to provide lateral transshipment. This structure represents a new form of partial pooling, with no pooling (zero main locals) and full pooling (zero regular locals) as special cases. We develop an accurate and fast approximate evaluation method, and exploit this method in a heuristic procedure for the base stock level determination. We show that only a small number of main locals is sufficient to obtain most of the full pooling benefits. We also apply our methods to case data of ASML, an original equipment manufacturer in the semiconductor supplier industry. As a result of our work ASML was able to improve spare parts planning.     

A health insurance pricing model based on prevalence rates: Application to critical illness insurance

The Italian health insurance market is currently undersized. The paucity of assured data and the discontinuous statistical surveys carried out by the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) represent one of the main obstacles to the insurance market development. The paper sets forth a parametric model to estimate technical basis for health insurance policies when data are limited and only aggregated information on mortality and morbidity is available. The probabilistic framework is based on a multiple state continuous and time inhomogeneous Markov model. We provide an estimate of transition intensities from the healthy state to the sickness state when only prevalence rates of sickness are available, according to an extension and modification of the methodology proposed in Olivieri (1996) for Long Term Care insurance. We assume that mortality intensity of both healthy and sick lives is modelled by two independent Gompertz–Makeham models.     

A stochastic model for joint spare parts inventory and planned maintenance optimisation

Spare parts demands are usually generated by the need of maintenance either preventively or at failures. These demands are difficult to predict based on historical data of past spare parts usages, and therefore, the optimal inventory control policy may be also difficult to obtain. However, it is well known that maintenance costs are related to the availability of spare parts and the penalty cost of unavailable spare parts consists of usually the cost of, for example, extended downtime for waiting the spare parts and the emergency expedition cost for acquiring the spare parts. On the other hand, proper planned maintenance intervention can reduce the number of failures and associated costs but its performance also depends on the availability of spare parts. This paper presents the joint optimisation for both the inventory control of the spare parts and the Preventive Maintenance (PM) inspection interval. The decision variables are the order interval, PM interval and order quantity. Because of the random nature of plant failures, stochastic cost models for spare parts inventory and maintenance are derived and an enumeration algorithm with stochastic dynamic programming is employed for finding the joint optimal solutions over a finite time horizon. The delay-time concept developed for inspection modelling is used to construct the probabilities of the number of failures and the number of the defective items identified at a PM epoch, which has not been used in this type of problems before. The inventory model follows a periodic review policy but with the demand governed by the need for spare parts due to maintenance. We demonstrate the developed model using a numerical example.     

Joint optimization of level of repair analysis and spare parts stocks

In the field of after sales service logistics for capital goods, generally, METRIC type methods are used to decide where to stock spare parts in a multi-echelon repair network such that a target availability of the capital goods is achieved. These methods generate a trade-off curve of spares investment costs versus backorders. Backorders of spare parts lead to unavailability of the capital goods. Inputs in the spare parts stocking problem are decisions on (1) which components to repair upon failure and which to discard, and (2) at which locations in the repair network to perform the repairs and discards. The level of repair analysis (LORA) can be used to make such decisions in conjunction with the decisions (3) at which locations to deploy resources, such as test equipment that are required to repair, discard, or move components. Since these decisions significantly impact the spare parts investment costs, we propose to solve the LORA and spare parts stocking problems jointly. We design an algorithm that finds efficient solutions. In order for the algorithm to be exact and because of its computational complexity, we restrict ourselves to two-echelon, single-indenture problems. In a computational experiment, we show that solving the joint problem is worthwhile, since we achieve a cost reduction of over 43% at maximum (5.1% on average) compared with using a sequential approach of first solving a LORA and then the spare parts stocking problem.     

Health shock risk,critical illness insurance,and housing services

This paper studies a consumption–investment problem involving health shock risk, perishable consumption, and consumption of housing services. Additionally to a risk-free asset and a stock index, the agent can invest in real estate. I analyze the impact of health shocks on the optimal consumption and investment decisions in model specifications with and without the possibility to buy critical illness insurance. I discuss the influence of critical illness insurance on the optimal strategy and analyze the drivers of the optimal critical illness insurance demand. The results indicate that health shock risk has potentially devastating consequences, especially for young agents. It turns out that critical illness insurance is an excellent instrument for hedging health shock risk and for consumption smoothing across different health states. Optimal critical illness insurance demand is decreasing in financial wealth and increasing in human wealth. Real estate prices have a minor influence on optimal critical illness insurance demand.     

Portfolio insurance: Gap risk under conditional multiples

The research on financial portfolio optimization has been originally developed by Markowitz (1952). It has been further extended in many directions, among them the portfolio insurance theory introduced by Leland and Rubinstein (1976) for the “Option Based Portfolio Insurance” (OBPI) and Perold (1986) for the “Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance” method (CPPI). The recent financial crisis has dramatically emphasized the interest of such portfolio strategies. This paper examines the CPPI method when the multiple is allowed to vary over time. To control the risk of such portfolio management, a quantile approach is introduced together with expected shortfall criteria. In this framework, we provide explicit upper bounds on the multiple as function of past asset returns and volatilities. These values can be statistically estimated from financial data, using for example ARCH type models. We show how the multiple can be chosen in order to satisfy the guarantee condition, at a given level of probability and for various financial market conditions.     

A survey of personalized treatment models for pricing strategies in insurance

We consider a model for price calculations based on three components: a fair premium; price loadings reflecting general expenses and solvency requirements; and profit. The first two components are typically evaluated on a yearly basis, while the third is viewed from a longer perspective. When considering the value of customers over a period of several years, and examining policy renewals and cross-selling in relation to price adjustments, many insurers may prefer to reduce their short-term benefits so as to focus on their most profitable customers and the long-term value. We show how models of personalized treatment learning can be used to select the policy holders that should be targeted in a company’s marketing strategies. An empirical application of the causal conditional inference tree method illustrates how best to implement a personalized cross-sell marketing campaign in this framework.     

MIN-MAD life: A multi-period optimization model for life insurance company investment decisions

This paper presents a model, called the MIN-MAD Life Model, for managing the investments of a life insurance company over a multiperiod planning horizon. The MIN-MAD Life Model is a linear programming under uncertainty model based on Markowitz portfolio theory. Given the insurance company's current position and its forecasts of possible future developments with their associated probabilities, the model helps determine the set of efficient investment decisions over the planning horizon subject to market constraints and to the insurance company's legal and policy constraints. The senior executives of the life insurance company need examine only the set of efficient investment decisions to determine their optimal investment decisions.     

A two-step method for forecasting spare parts demand using information on component repairs

Forecasting spare parts demand is notoriously difficult, as demand is typically intermittent and lumpy. Specialized methods such as that by Croston are available, but these are not based on the repair operations that cause the intermittency and lumpiness of demand. In this paper, we do propose a method that, in addition to the demand for spare parts, considers the type of component repaired. This two-step forecasting method separately updates the average number of parts needed per repair and the number of repairs for each type of component. The method is tested in an empirical, comparative study for a service provider in the aviation industry. Our results show that the two-step method is one of the most accurate methods, and that it performs considerably better than Croston’s method. Moreover, contrary to other methods, the two-step method can use information on planned maintenance and repair operations to reduce forecasts errors by up to 20%. We derive further analytical and simulation results that help explain the empirical findings.     

A case study of an integrated fuzzy methodology for green product development

Green product development has become a key strategic consideration for many companies due to regulatory requirements and the public awareness of environmental protection. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a popular tool to measure the environmental impact of new product development. Nevertheless, it is often difficult to conduct a traditional LCA at the design phase due to uncertain and/or unknown data. This research adopts the concept of LCA and introduces a comprehensive method that integrates Fuzzy Extent Analysis and Fuzzy TOPSIS for the assessment of environmental performance with respect to different product designs. Methodologically, it exhibits the superiority of the hierarchical structure and the easiness of TOPSIS implementation whilst capturing the vagueness of uncertainty. A case study concerning a consumer electronic product was presented, and data collected through a questionnaire survey were used for the design evaluation. The approach presented in this research is expected to help companies decrease development lead time by screening out poor design options.     

寿险中的破产理论及应用

本文研究了求解寿险中破产概率的简洁方法 ,得到寿险破产模型 ,设计了求解寿险中的破产概率的一种算法 ,并得到寿险破产概率的一个上界。     

Asymptotic analysis for closed multiclass queueing networks in critical usage

We consider a class of closed multiclass queueing networks containing First-Come-First-Serve (FCFS) and Infinite Server (IS) stations. These networks have a productform solution for their equilibrium probabilities. We study these networks in an asymptotic regime for which the number of customers and the service rates at the FCFS stations go to infinity with the same order. We assume that the regime is in critical usage, whereby the utilizations of the FCFS servers slowly approach one. The asymptotic distribution of the normalized queue lengths is shown to be in many cases a truncated multivariate normal distribution. Traffic conditions for which the normalized queue lengths arealmost asymptotically independent are determined. Asymptotic expansions of utilizations and expected queue lengths are presented. We show through an example how to obtain asymptotic expansions of performance measures when the networks are in mixed usage and how to apply the results to networks with finite data.Supported partially by NSF grant NCR93-04601.     

Measuring dynamic efficiency: Theories and an integrated methodology

Almost all dynamic production systems are subject to lagged productive effects, which are an often-ignored latent source of interference in the efficiency measuring process. Existing data envelopment analysis (DEA) approaches rely on a static production environment. They can easily lead to biased evaluation results due to the erroneous assumption. To tackle this issue, this paper develops a dynamic DEA model that allows intertemporal effects in efficiency measuring. Specifically, the dynamic DEA model incorporates dynamic factors via a linear parametric formulation. Our model can be applied in place of static DEA models to a wide range of applications, such as analyzing longitudinal firm performance and productivity changes. As for the empirical efficiencies, we demonstrate how the lag parameters in the dynamic model can be estimated by the panel vector autoregressive model (PVAR). We use our methodology to evaluate advertising efficiencies of several major automobile and pharmaceutical firms in North America. The result shows that using static DEA in dynamic production can lead to both rank reversals and changes in efficiency scores.     

A flexible multicriteria decision-making methodology to support the strategic management of Science,Technology and Innovation research funding programs

Research funding programs are a policy instrument utilized by governments to influence the innovation process. They are usually elaborated, launched and managed by research funding agencies. In order to select the most adequate research projects, agencies often rely on the peer review process.This paper introduces a methodology to support funding decisions based on the peer review process. The methodology involves the use of a multicriteria decision model to support the assessment, evaluation, prioritization and selection of applications, under a multi-step decision-making process, which fits into a strategic management cycle within the agency. The Multiattribute Value Theory, being considered under a Value Focused Thinking approach, provides a basis for the construction of the multicriteria decision model. The good practices in peer review and also a logical framework for program management are considered by the methodology.A pilot study, presented in the paper, involved a retrospective implementation of a peer review process in the context of a program launched by the Ministry for Science, Technology, Innovations and Communications and the National Council of Technological and Scientific Development, in Brazil. The methodology allowed a clear distinction of roles. The agency staff in the role of decision-makers was responsible for making value judgments on behalf of the agency. The experts, in the role of committee members and ad hoc reviewers, contributed with their expertise by providing objective assessments. Such assessments served as a basis for evaluating the applications, characterizing the possible portfolios, and can be considered as data in future program evaluation studies.     

A positive solution for some critical p-Laplacian systems

This paper deals with the existence of a positive solution for two classes of critical quasilinear system. We prove these results by a variant of mountain pass lemma, combining two convergence theorems and two estimate results. Here we avoid the usual compactness arguments(e.g., Palais–Smale condition or Cerami condition) and reveal the potential of some energy level estimates for the existence of nontrivial solutions.     

An integrated operation module for individual risk management

In this study, we used the cumulative prospect theory to propose the individual risk management process (IRM) which includes risk analysis and risk response stages. According to an individual’s preferential structure, the process has been developed into an operational module which includes two sub-modules. From this, the individual’s risk level for the confronted risk can be identified from the risk analysis, while the response strategies can be assessed at the risk response stage. Therefore, optimal response strategies can be recommended based on individual risk tolerance levels.     

Flexible time-varying optimization methodology for the solution of groundwater management problems

An outer approximation based, time-varying optimization methodology to obtain a least-cost groundwater remediation design based upon a multi-period, pump-and-treat strategy is introduced. In this novel approach, the remediation design is modified, or updated, from time to time in order to obtain cost-effective removal of contaminants from the subsurface subject to the requirement of respecting upper-bound contaminant concentration constraints at target locations and times. Concentration constraints are defined at the end of each management period, the duration of which is calculated by the optimization algorithm in such a way as to ensure maximum mass removal and to prevent further off-site migration of the contaminant plume. At each stage, the pumping strategy is modified and constraints are relocated in response to the changes in the plume geometry. A penalty term is added to the objective function to assure the performance of the proposed remediation-pumping scheme at a pre-selected time beyond the end of the design period. The utilization of the suggested approach to a field application illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed strategy.