考虑模型不确定的TBP养老金的鲁棒最优投资策略研究

以目标收益养老金计划(TBP)模型研究鲁棒最优投资问题, 其中养老金管理者对模型参数不确定带来的风险是模糊风险厌恶的. 养老金管理者为规避风险和增加收益将投资于无风险资产和风险资产. 考虑连续时间情形, 假设养老金计划参保人的缴费是确定的, 而参保人的收益给付是确定目标收益给付, 资金账户的收益风险由不同代际的参保人共同承担, 同时考虑随机工资及其与金融市场的相关性. 以参保人退休后养老金给付偏离目标的风险和代际之间风险分担的组合最小化为投资决策目标, 并采用指数函数的形式描述实际给付与目标给付的偏离, 利用随机最优控制方法, 建立相应的HJB方程并求解得到最优投资收益策略和最优给付策略的解析解. 通过数值示例分析了模型参数对最优投资和最优给付策略的影响.     

Optimal Dynamic Control for the Defined Benefit Pension Plans with Stochastic Benefit Outgo

Abstract

This work is devoted to a continuous time dynamic pension funding model in a defined benefit plan of an employment system. We extend the analysis of some standard models by incorporating a source of uncertainty in the benefit outgo. The key assumption is that the random benefits increase on average at an exponential rate. We model the preference of the manager with the main objective of minimizing both the contribution rate risk and the solvency risk. Two different situations are studied regarding the investment decisions. In the first case, the fund is invested at a constant, risk-free rate of interests; in the second case, the promoter invests in a portfolio with a risky asset and a risk-free bond. We provide, in both cases, explicit expressions for the actuarial liability, normal costs, value function, and the supplementary contribution rate.     

Optimal investment strategies and risk-sharing arrangements for a hybrid pension plan

A continuous time stochastic model is used to study a hybrid pension plan, where both the contribution and benefit levels are adjusted depending on the performance of the plan, with risk sharing between different generations. The pension fund is invested in a risk-free asset and multiple risky assets. The objective is to seek an optimal investment strategy and optimal risk-sharing arrangements for plan trustees and participants so that this proposed hybrid pension system provides adequate and stable income to retirees while adjusting contributions effectively, as well as keeping its sustainability in the long run. These goals are achieved by minimizing the expected discount disutility of intermediate adjustment for both benefits and contributions and that of terminal wealth in finite time horizon. Using the stochastic optimal control approach, closed-form solutions are derived under quadratic loss function and exponential loss function. Numerical analysis is presented to illustrate the sensitivity of the optimal strategies to parameters of the financial market and how the optimal benefit changes with respect to different risk aversions. Through numerical analysis, we find that the optimal strategies do adjust the contributions and retirement benefits according to fund performance and model objectives so the intergenerational risk sharing seem effectively achieved for this collective hybrid pension plan.     

Precommitment and equilibrium investment strategies for defined contribution pension plans under a jump–diffusion model

In this paper, we study an optimal investment problem under the mean–variance criterion for defined contribution pension plans during the accumulation phase. To protect the rights of a plan member who dies before retirement, a clause on the return of premiums for the plan member is adopted. We assume that the manager of the pension plan is allowed to invest the premiums in a financial market, which consists of one risk-free asset and one risky asset whose price process is modeled by a jump–diffusion process. The precommitment strategy and the corresponding value function are obtained using the stochastic dynamic programming approach. Under the framework of game theory and the assumption that the manager’s risk aversion coefficient depends on the current wealth, the equilibrium strategy and the corresponding equilibrium value function are also derived. Our results show that with the same level of variance in the terminal wealth, the expected optimal terminal wealth under the precommitment strategy is greater than that under the equilibrium strategy with a constant risk aversion coefficient; the equilibrium strategy with a constant risk aversion coefficient is revealed to be different from that with a state-dependent risk aversion coefficient; and our results can also be degenerated to the results of He and Liang (2013b) and Björk et al. (2014). Finally, some numerical simulations are provided to illustrate our derived results.     

基于Heston模型的待遇预定制养老基金管理最优决策

资产组合与缴费计划是待遇预定制养老基金管理的核心问题. 针对此类养老基金的管理, 建立Heston随机波动率模型, 结合最优控制理论和Legendre变换, 将原问题转化为对偶问题, 通过对偶问题的求解, 求得原问题的解析解, 从而确定风险资产比例和缴费水平, 最终实现养老基金管理的最优资产配置和最低缴费水平.     

Managing contribution and capital market risk in a funded public defined benefit plan: Impact of CVaR cost constraints

Using a Monte Carlo framework, we analyze the risks and rewards of moving from an unfunded defined benefit pension system to a funded plan for German civil servants, allowing for alternative strategic contribution and investment patterns. In the process we integrate a Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) restriction on overall plan costs into the pension manager’s objective of controlling contribution rate volatility. After estimating the contribution rate that would fully fund future benefit promises for current and prospective employees, we identify the optimal contribution and investment strategy that minimizes contribution rate volatility while restricting worst-case plan costs. Finally, we analyze the time path of expected and worst-case contribution rates to assess the chances of reduced contribution rates for current and future generations. Our results show that moving toward a funded public pension system can be beneficial for both civil servants and taxpayers.     

基于Stein-Stein波动率和动态VaR约束下DC型养老基金的最优投资策略

研究了确定缴费型养老基金在退休前累积阶段的最优资产配置问题.假设养老基金管理者将养老基金投资于由一个无风险资产和一个价格过程满足Stein-Stein随机波动率模型的风险资产所构成的金融市场.利用随机最优控制方法,以最大化退休时刻养老基金账户相对财富的期望效用为目标,分别获得了无约束情形和受动态VaR (Value at Risk)约束情形下该养老基金的最优投资策略,并获得相应最优值函数的解析表达形式.最后通过数值算例对相关理论结果进行数值验证并考察了最优投资策略关于相关参数的敏感性.     

Nash equilibrium strategies for a defined contribution pension management

This paper studies the time-consistent investment strategy for a defined contribution (DC) pension plan under the mean–variance criterion. Since the time horizon of a pension fund management problem is relatively long, two background risks are taken into account: the inflation risk and the salary risk. Meanwhile, there are a risk-free asset, a stock and an inflation-indexed bond available in the financial market. The extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB for short) equation of the equilibrium value function and the verification theorem corresponding to our problem are presented. The closed-form time-consistent investment strategy and the equilibrium efficient frontier are obtained by stochastic control technique. The effects of the inflation and stochastic income on the equilibrium strategy and the equilibrium efficient frontier are illustrated by mathematical and numerical analysis. Finally, we compare in detail the time-consistent results in our paper with the pre-commitment one and find the distinct properties of these two results.     

Optimal portfolio choice and stochastic volatility

In this paper we examine the effect of stochastic volatility on optimal portfolio choice in both partial and general equilibrium settings. In a partial equilibrium setting we derive an analog of the classic Samuelson–Merton optimal portfolio result and define volatility‐adjusted risk aversion as the effective risk aversion of an individual investing in an asset with stochastic volatility. We extend prior research which shows that effective risk aversion is greater with stochastic volatility than without for investors without wealth effects by providing further comparative static results on changes in effective risk aversion due to changes in the distribution of volatility. We demonstrate that effective risk aversion is increasing in the constant absolute risk aversion and the variance of the volatility distribution for investors without wealth effects. We further show that for these investors a first‐order stochastic dominant shift in the volatility distribution does not necessarily increase effective risk aversion, whereas a second‐order stochastic dominant shift in the volatility does increase effective risk aversion. Finally, we examine the effect of stochastic volatility on equilibrium asset prices. We derive an explicit capital asset pricing relationship that illustrates how stochastic volatility alters equilibrium asset prices in a setting with multiple risky assets, where returns have a market factor and asset‐specific random components and multiple investor types. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Equilibrium investment strategy for DC pension plan with default risk and return of premiums clauses under CEV model

This paper considers an optimal investment problem for a defined contribution (DC) pension plan with default risk in a mean–variance framework. In the DC plan, contributions are supposed to be a predetermined amount of money as premiums and the pension funds are allowed to be invested in a financial market which consists of a risk-free asset, a defaultable bond and a risky asset satisfied a constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model. Notice that a part of pension members could die during the accumulation phase, and their premiums should be withdrawn. Thus, we consider the return of premiums clauses by an actuarial method and assume that the surviving members will share the difference between the return and the accumulation equally. Taking account of the pension fund size and the volatility of the accumulation, a mean–variance criterion as the investment objective for the DC plan can be formulated, and the original optimization problem can be decomposed into two sub-problems: a post-default case and a pre-default case. By applying a game theoretic framework, the equilibrium investment strategies and the corresponding equilibrium value functions can be obtained explicitly. Economic interpretations are given in the numerical simulation, which is presented to illustrate our results.     

Optimal assets allocation and benefit outgo policies of DC pension plan with compulsory conversion claims

In this paper, we study optimal asset allocation and benefit outgo policies of DC (defined contribution) pension plan. We extend He and Liang model (2013a,b) to describe dynamics of individual fund scale during distribution period. The fund scale is affected by investment return, benefit outgo and mortality credit. The management of the pension plan controls the asset allocation and benefit outgo policies to achieve the objective of pension members. The goal of the management is to minimize accumulated deviations between the actual benefit outgo and a pre-set target during the whole distribution period. The performance function (criterion) is the weighted average of the square and linear deviations to express more penalty on negative deviation than positive deviation. Using HJB (Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman) equations and variational inequality methods, the closed-forms of the optimal policies are derived. The counterintuitive effect of the optimal proportion allocated in the risky asset with respect to the fund scale is also derived, and the optimal benefit outgo has the form of the spread method. Moreover, we use Monte Carlo Methods (MCM) to analyze economic behaviors of the optimal asset allocation and benefit outgo policies.     

Can asset allocation limits determine portfolio risk–return profiles in DC pension schemes?

In defined contribution (DC) pension schemes, the regulator usually imposes asset allocation constraints (minimum and maximum limits by asset class) in order to create funds with different risk–return profiles. In this article, we challenge this approach and show that such funds can exhibit erratic risk–return profiles that deviate significantly from the intended design. We propose to replace all minimum and maximum asset allocation constraints by a single risk metric (or measure) that controls risk directly. Thus, funds with different risk–return profiles can be immediately created by adjusting the risk tolerance parameter accordingly. Using data from the Chilean DC pension system, we show that our approach generates funds whose risk–return profiles are consistently ordered according to the intended design, and outperforms funds created by means of asset allocation limits.     

Stochastic pension funding when the benefit and the risky asset follow jump diffusion processes

We study the asset allocation of defined benefit pension plans of the type designed and sponsored by firms with the aim of providing a lifetime pension to the employees at the age of retirement. Benefits are stochastic, combining Poisson jumps with Brownian uncertainty. The sponsor dynamically forms portfolios where the risky asset is also subjected to Poisson jumps and Brownian uncertainty, possibly correlated with the evolution of benefits. The objective is to assure future benefits, while controlling the contribution made to the fund reserves. The problem is solved analytically using dynamic programming techniques.     

Time consistent pension funding in a defined benefit pension plan with non-constant discounting

We consider the time consistent management of a defined benefit stochastic pension plan where the participants have different rates of time preference and the fund manager collects this heterogeneity when discounting the future. The main objective is to select the amortization rate and the investment strategy minimizing both the contribution rate risk and the solvency risk. The problem is formulated as a stochastic control problem with non-constant rate of discount and is solved analytically by means of the dynamic programming approach and the technical interest rate is selected in order to keep stable the fund evolution within prescribed targets. A numerical illustration shows a comparative of the stability of the fund assets and the rate of contribution for a convex combination of exponential functions as discount function and for the constant discount case.     

A new defined benefit pension risk measurement methodology

Defined benefit pension plan sponsors have taken on greater risks for sponsoring these plans in the last several years. Due to ever increasing concerns of longevity risk and the weak economic environment, sponsors are eager to understand their pension-related risks to facilitate optimal enterprise decision-making. Borrowing an analytical framework from the life insurance and annuity industry where the amount of risk is framed in terms of the total assets required to remain solvent over a one-year period with a high level of confidence, i.e., the economic capital approach, this paper develops a benchmark risk measure for pension sponsors by obtaining a total asset requirement for sustaining the pension plan. The difference between the total asset requirement and the actual trust assets thus provides a measure of sponsor assets at risk due to plan sponsorship. Two factor-based approaches are proposed for this calculation. The first approach develops a set of pension-specific factors as if the pension plan were a group annuity. The second approach directly simulates the risk drivers of the pension plan and develops a framework for obtaining factors and calculating the pension risk given a desired confidence level. Our approach is very easy to implement and monitor in practice.     

Optimal DB-PAYGO pension management towards a habitual contribution rate

In this paper, we propose a new objective function, which reflects the costs of unstable contribution risk and discontinuity risk in DB-PAYGO pension system. The problem is to minimize the quadratic deviation between the actual contribution rate and a habitual target and the quadratic proportional deviation of the pension accumulation. A modified non-negative constraint of the contribution rate is added, which together with a stochastic habitual target process, causes difficulty in solving the minimization problem by Lagrange dual method. The results are split into two cases which depend on the habit-adjusted adequacy of the pension budget. In the inadequate case, the optimal contribution rate reveals a hump shape curve with respect to time, which is different from the exponential growth curve of the model with a fixed target. By moderately raising the contribution rate in the initial phase, it helps to increase the accumulation and reduce the contribution burden of the follow-up policyholders. Notably, the hump shape curve is a more practical policy, because of that the exponential growth curve raises anxiety about the unlimited growth of the contribution rate and harms the confidence in the sustainability of the pension fund. We also study the impacts of the certain trend in demography, and the uncertain fluctuations in salary and investment on the optimal control policies.     

A BSDE approach to risk-based asset allocation of pension funds with regime switching

An asset allocation problem of a member of a defined contribution (DC) pension fund is discussed in a hidden, Markov regime-switching, economy using backward stochastic differential equations, (BSDEs). A risk-based approach is considered, where the member selects an optimal asset mix with a view to minimizing the risk described by a convex risk measure of his/her terminal wealth. Firstly, filtering theory is adopted to transform the hidden, Markov regime-switching, economy into one with complete observations and to develop, (robust), filters for the hidden Markov chain. Then the optimal asset allocation problem of the member is formulated as a two-person, zero-sum stochastic differential game between the member and the market in the economy with complete observations. The BSDE approach is then used to solve the game problem and to characterize the saddle point of the game problem. An explicit expression for the optimal asset mix is obtained in the case of a convex risk measure with quadratic penalty and it can be considered a generalized version of the Merton ratio. An explicit expression for the optimal strategy of the market is also obtained, which leads to a risk-neutral wealth dynamic and may provide some insights into asset pricing in the economy with inflation risk and regime-switching risk. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate financial implications of the BSDE solution.     

Levelling the playing field: A VIX-linked structure for funded pension schemes

In this article, we study intergenerational risk and cost sharing for a variety of collective funded pension plans. Inspired by the literature on contingent claim analysis in pension insurance, we derive time-varying contribution and benefit levels. The latter specifically include the fund surplus, which accounts for (intergenerational) risk sharing, and the VIX, which is related to cost sharing among generations. We find that pension schemes with a well-structured volatility-risk-adjusted component can be welfare enhancing for the entry and future cohorts. In addition, these schemes are fair from an ex ante perspective, provide adequate consumption profiles and high levels of satisfaction.     

Pension funding problem with regime‐switching geometric Brownian motion assets and liabilities

This paper extends the pension funding model in (N. Am. Actuarial J. 2003; 7 :37–51) to a regime‐switching case. The market mode is modeled by a continuous‐time stationary Markov chain. The asset value process and liability value process are modeled by Markov‐modulated geometric Brownian motions. We consider a pension funding plan in which the asset value is to be within a band that is proportional to the liability value. The pension plan sponsor is asked to provide sufficient funds to guarantee the asset value stays above the lower barrier of the band. The amount by which the asset value exceeds the upper barrier will be paid back to the sponsor. By applying differential equation approach, this paper calculates the expected present value of the payments to be made by the sponsor as well as that of the refunds to the sponsor. In addition, we study the effects of different barriers and regime switching on the results using some numerical examples. The optimal dividend problem is studied in our examples as an application of our theory. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Valuation of the interest rate guarantee embedded in defined contribution pension plans

In this research, we derive the valuation formulae for a defined contribution pension plan associated with the minimum rate of return guarantees. Different from the previous studies, we work on the rate of return guarantee which is linked to the δ-year spot rate. The payoffs of interest rate guarantees can be viewed as a function of the exchange option. By employing Margrabe’s [Margrabe, W., 1978. The value of an option to exchange one asset for another. Journal of Finance 33, 177–186] option pricing approach, we derive general pricing formulae under the assumptions that the interest rate dynamics follow a single-factor HJM (1992) [Heath. D. et al., 1992. Bond pricing and the term structure of interest rates: a new methodology for contingent claims valuation. Econometrica 60, 77–105] interest rate model and the asset prices follow a geometric Brownian motion. The volatility of the forward rates is assumed to be exponentially decaying. The formula is explicit for valuing maturity guarantee (type-I guarantee). For multi-period guarantee (type-II guarantee), the analytical formula only exists when the guaranteed rate is the one-year spot rate. The accuracy of the valuation formulae is illustrated with numerical analysis. We also investigate the effect of mortality and the sensitivity of key parameters on the value of the guarantee. We find that type-II guarantee is much more costly than the type-I guarantee, especially with a long duration policy. The closed form solution provides the advantage in valuing pension guarantees.