On a single discrete scale for preventive maintenance with two shock processes affecting a complex system

A new approach to optimal maintenance of systems (networks) is suggested. It is applied to systems subject to two external independent shock processes. A system ‘consists’ of two parts, and each shock process affects only its own part. A new notion of bivariate signature is suggested and used for obtaining survival characteristics of a system and further optimization of the preventive maintenance actions. The preventive maintenance optimization is considered in the univariate discrete scale that counts the overall numbers of shocks of both types. An example of a transportation network is considered. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A novel replacement policy for a linear deteriorating system using stochastic process with dependent components

In this study, a mechanical system with linear deterioration and preventive maintenance is considered. The state of the system over time is represented by a semicontinuous stochastic process with dependent components. The system cycles through on and off periods during its lifetime. The state of the system deteriorates linearly as a function of the usage time during on periods. When the system is offline, preventive maintenance is conducted, which improves the system state by a random amount. The system's on and off times and random improvement amounts are assumed to have general distributions. For such a system, our objective is to determine the expected value and variance for the number of preventive maintenance activities needed during the system lifetime and to propose a novel replacement policy for the system based on delay‐time modeling. Finally, the effectiveness of the obtained asymptotic results and the proposed replacement policy are tested through simulation.     

带有一个冷贮备部件的两部件串联系统机会维修策略

针对带有一个冷贮备部件的两部件串联系统,本文首先提出一种预防维修与机会维修相结合的维修策略,运用更新报酬定理求得长期运行情况下的单位时间期望维修成本函数的表达式,然后研究最优的机会维修阀值,运用微分学理论求解最优解,最后用实例验证理论的正确性,从实际例子说明本文提出的维修策略可明显节约维修成本,为相应的带有冷贮备的多部件串联系统的维修策略分析提供参考,对企业设备的维修有实际指导意义。     

考虑不完全检测的冲击模型最优维修策略

针对制造系统中设备检测不完全的情形,研究基于不完全检测的冲击模型的周期检测、维修联合策略．通过定期检测获知系统的劣化状态以进行必要的预防性维修．在假设系统是退化的且有k个不同故障状态的条件下,以最小化系统运行成本为目标,以检测周期T、系统更换前故障次数Ⅳ为联合决策变量,利用更新过程理论建立了系统平均费用率C（T,N）的数学模型,并且给出最优联合策略的数值算法．最后借助数值例子演示了该模型,分析了检测水平对系统运行成本的影响．     

System availability in a shock model under preventive repair and phase‐type distributions

A device that can fail by shocks or ageing under policy N of maintenance is presented. The interarrival times between shocks follow phase‐type distributions depending on the number of cumulated shocks. The successive shocks deteriorate the system, and some of them can be fatal. After a prefixed number k of nonfatal shocks, the device is preventively repaired. After a fatal shock the device is correctively repaired. Repairs are as good as new, and follow phase‐type distributions. The system is governed by a Markov process whose infinitesimal generator, stationary probability vector, and availability are calculated, obtaining well‐structured expressions due to the use of phase‐type distributions. The availability is optimized in terms of the number k of preventive repairs. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

带有多重休假及预防维修的冲击模型二维更换策略

研究了修理工带有多重休假且定期检测的累积冲击模型.为了延长系统的运行时间,在检测时考虑了预防维修.将事后维修和预防维修结合起来运用于可修系统,且假定预防维修能够"修复如新",而事后维修为"修复非新".以系统的检测周期和故障次数为二维决策变量,选取系统经长期运行单位时间内期望费用为目标函数.并通过数值分析,求出了最优策略.     

Optimal replacement policy for obsolete components with general failure rates

Identical components are considered, which become obsolete once new‐type ones are available, more reliable and less energy consuming. We envision different possible replacement strategies for the old‐type components by the new‐type ones: either purely preventive, where all old‐type components are replaced as soon as the new‐type ones are available; either purely corrective, where the old‐type ones are replaced by new‐type ones only at failure; or a mixture of both strategies, where the old‐type ones are first replaced at failure by new‐type ones and next simultaneously preventively replaced after a fixed number of failed old‐type components. To evaluate the respective value of each possible strategy, a cost function is considered, which represents the mean total cost on some finite time interval [0, t]. This function takes into account replacement costs, with economical dependence between simultaneous replacements, and also some energy consumption (and/or production) cost, with a constant rate per unit time. A full analytical expression is provided for the cost function induced by each possible replacement strategy. The optimal strategy is derived in long‐time run. Numerical experiments conclude the paper. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An optimal age maintenance for an M/G/1 queueing system

This paper discusses an optimal age maintenance scheme for a queueing system. Customers arrive at the system according to a Poisson process. They form a single queue and are served by a server with general service distribution. The system fails after a random time and corrective maintenance is performed at the failure. A preventive maintenance is also performed if the system is empty at age T where ‘age’ refers to the elapsed time since the previous maintenance was completed. If the system is not empty at age T, the system is used until it fails. At the failure, the customers in the system are lost and the arriving customers during the maintenance are also lost. By renewal theory, we study the optimal value of T which minimizes the average number of lost customers over an infinite time horizon.     

考虑中间库存缓冲区的多目标设备不完美预防维修策略研究

针对考虑库存缓冲区的多目标设备维修问题,以设备维修能力为约束条件,获得随机故障设备的不完美预防维修策略。首先,利用准更新过程,表示出设备的随机故障次数。其次,结合设备故障次数表达式,以最大设备可用度和最小生产总成本为多目标构建不完美预防维修模型,使用粒子群算法求解,优化设备可用度与生产总成本,获得更新周期内的库存量和预防维修周期两个决策变量的最优值。最后,通过算例分析,验证了多目标不完美预防维修模型的可用性。     

Optimal preventive maintenance policy for electric power distribution systems based on the fuzzy AHP methods

In power distribution systems, with their great vastness and various outage causes, one of the most important problems of power distribution companies is to select a suitable maintenance strategy of system elements and method of financial planning for the maintenance of system elements with the two objectives of decrease in outage costs and improvement of system reliability. In this article, a practical method is introduced for the selection of a suitable system elements maintenance strategy; moreover, to plan the preventive maintenance budget for the system elements, two methods are offered: the cost optimization method and the fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. In the former method, a new model of system maintenance cost is offered. This model, based on system outage information, the elements maintenance costs are determined as functions of system reliability indices and preventive maintenance budget. The latter method, too, a new guideline is introduced for considering the cost and reliability criteria in the trend of preventive maintenance budget planning. In this method, the preventive maintenance budget for the elements is determined based on relative priority of elements with reliability criteria. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 70–88, 2016     

基于成本优先级的部件维修策略分析

现实中,系统由于任务、环境等因素,无法实时对故障部件进行维修。因此需要在任务间隔期间或对故障部件进行维修的同时对系统各部件进行预防性机会维修。本文考虑系统期望维修成本,提出了基于部件维修优先级的预防性维修策略。首先把系统期望维修成本分为失效部件维修成本、失效部件导致系统故障的成本和预防性维修其他部件的成本,提出了基于成本的二态和多态系统部件维修优先级度量方法,并在两种场景下分析了如何选择预防性维修部件。其次针对多态系统,研究了基于成本重要度的部件最佳维修水平,并讨论了成本约束下的部件预防性维修策略。最后以某型预警机系统为例进行验证,结果表明,基于成本的预防性维修策略不仅与故障部件位置和相关成本有关,而且还与可用于预防性维修的其他部件重要性有关。     

自保护相依多部件系统的预防维修建模及策略优化

自保护技术作为自愈技术的一种,能够使系统在环境或工况条件变化的干扰下以较高可靠性运行。本文构建了一个新的具有相依主要部件和辅助部件的系统可靠性模型,其中主要部件的退化速率与工作中的辅助部件的数量有关。此外,基于定期检测和预防维修策略,本文利用半再生过程技术求解了系统的长期运行平均成本,并以长期运行平均成本最小化为目标给出了系统的最优预防维修策略。最后,以镗刀系统为例,利用所提方法给出了预防更换阈值和检测周期的最优值,以期望为实际维修行为决策提供理论参考。     

A novel optimal preventive maintenance policy for a cold standby system based on semi-Markov theory

A novel optimal preventive maintenance policy for a cold standby system consisting of two components and a repairman is described herein. The repairman is to be responsible for repairing either failed component and maintaining the working components under certain guidelines. To model the operational process of the system, some reasonable assumptions are made and all times involved in the assumptions are considered to be arbitrary and independent. Under these assumptions, all system states and transition probabilities between them are analyzed based on a semi-Markov theory and a regenerative point technique. Markov renewal equations are constructed with the convolution of the cumulative distribution function of system time in each state and corresponding transition probability. By using the Laplace transform to solve these equations, the mean time from the initial state to system failure is derived. The optimal preventive maintenance policy that will provide the optimal preventive maintenance cycle is identified by maximizing the mean time from the initial state to system failure, and is determined in the form of a theorem. Finally, a numerical example and simulation experiments are shown which validated the effectiveness of the policy.     

An overview of some classical models and discussion of the signature-based models of preventive maintenance

In reliability engineering literature, a large number of research papers on optimal preventive maintenance (PM) of technical systems (networks) have appeared based on preliminary many different approaches. According to the existing literature on PM strategies, the authors have considered two scenarios for the component failures of the system. The first scenario assumes that the components of the system fail due to aging, while the second scenario assumes the system fails according to the fatal shocks arriving at the system from external or internal sources. This article reviews different approaches on the optimal strategies proposed in the literature on the optimal maintenance of multi-component coherent systems. The emphasis of the article is on PM models given in the literature whose optimization criteria (cost function and stationary availability) are developed by using the signature-based (survival signature-based) reliability of the system lifetime. The notions of signature and survival signature, defined for systems consisting of one type or multiple types of components, respectively, are powerful tools assessing the reliability and stochastic properties of coherent systems. After giving an overview of the research works on age-based PM models of one-unit systems and $k$-out-of-$n$ systems, we provide a more detailed review of recent results on the signature-based and survival signature-based PM models of complex systems. In order to illustrate the theoretical results on different proposed PM models, we examine two real examples of coherent systems both numerically and graphically.     

系统最佳维修策略研究

一个复杂系统通常由多个不同部件组成，考虑到这些部件有各自不同的失效率及维修时间，本提出了一种新的维修策略模型，该模型考虑了不同部件的差异性及对系统的不同重要性，在一定可用度要求下，使系统总平均费用达到最小的最佳预防维修周期，并给出了相应的仿真算法。     

A Comparison of Two Sequential Metropolis-Hastings Algorithms with Standard Simulation Techniques in Bayesian Inference in Reliability Models Involving a Generalized Gamma Distribution

In this paper we consider the generalized gamma distribution as introduced in Gåsemyr and Natvig (1998). This distribution enters naturally in Bayesian inference in exponential survival models with left censoring. In the paper mentioned above it is shown that the weighted sum of products of generalized gamma distributions is a conjugate prior for the parameters of component lifetimes, having autopsy data in a Marshall-Olkin shock model. A corresponding result is shown in Gåsemyr and Natvig (1999) for independent, exponentially distributed component lifetimes in a model with partial monitoring of components with applications to preventive system maintenance. A discussion in the present paper strongly indicates that expressing the posterior distribution in terms of the generalized gamma distribution is computationally efficient compared to using the ordinary gamma distribution in such models. Furthermore, we present two types of sequential Metropolis-Hastings algorithms that may be used in Bayesian inference in situations where exact methods are intractable. Finally these types of algorithms are compared with standard simulation techniques and analytical results in arriving at the posterior distribution of the parameters of component lifetimes in special cases of the mentioned models. It seems that one of these types of algorithms may be very favorable when prior assessments are updated by several data sets and when there are significant discrepancies between the prior assessments and the data.     

Optimizing Preventive Maintenance Models

We deal with the problem of scheduling preventive maintenance (PM) for a system so that, over its operating life, we minimize a performance function which reflects repair and replacement costs as well as the costs of the PM itself. It is assumed that a hazard rate model is known which predicts the frequency of system failure as a function of age. It is also assumed that each PM produces a step reduction in the effective age of the system. We consider some variations and extensions of a PM scheduling approach proposed by Lin et al. [6]. In particular we consider numerical algorithms which may be more appropriate for hazard rate models which are less simple than those used in [6] and we introduce some constraints into the problem in order to avoid the possibility of spurious solutions. We also discuss the use of automatic differentiation (AD) as a convenient tool for computing the gradients and Hessians that are needed by numerical optimization methods. The main contribution of the paper is a new problem formulation which allows the optimal number of occurrences of PM to be determined along with their optimal timings. This formulation involves the global minimization of a non-smooth performance function. In our numerical tests this is done via the algorithm DIRECT proposed by Jones et al. [19]. We show results for a number of examples, involving different hazard rate models, to give an indication of how PM schedules can vary in response to changes in relative costs of maintenance, repair and replacement. Part of this work was carried out while the first author was a Visiting Professor in the Department of Mechanical Engineering at the University of Alberta in December 2003.     

Preventive maintenance for homogeneous and heterogeneous systems

We consider optimal preventive maintenance for homogeneous and heterogeneous systems with major (critical) and minor (noncritical) failures. A major failure results in a replacement of a failed system, whereas minor failures can be minimally instantaneously repaired. Distinct from the homogeneous case, where the process of minimal repairs is the Poisson process, the process of minimal repairs in the heterogeneous case is the mixed Poisson process that does not possess the memoryless property. This enables considering the number of minimal repairs as the decision parameter for the corresponding optimal preventive maintenance policy. The proposed approach is theoretically justified, and the detailed illustrative numerical examples are presented.     

Maintenance optimization for second‐hand products following periodic imperfect preventive maintenance warranty period

The maintenance policy for a product's life cycle differs for second‐hand and new products. Although several maintenance policies for second‐hand products exist in the literature, they are rarely investigated with reference to periodic inspection and preventive maintenance action during the warranty period. In this research, we study an optimal post‐warranty maintenance policy for a second‐hand product, which was purchased at age x with a fixed‐length warranty period. During the warranty period, the product is periodically inspected and maintained preventively at a prorated cost borne by the user, while any product failure is only minimally repaired by the dealer. After the warranty expires, the product is self‐maintained by the user for a fixed‐length maintenance period and the costs incurred during this time are fully borne by the user. At the end of the maintenance period, the product is replaced with a product of the user's choice. This study is focused on the determination of an optimal length for the maintenance period after the warranty expiration. As a criterion for the optimality, we adopt the long‐run mean cost during the second‐hand product's life cycle from the user's perspective. Finally, our results are analyzed numerically for sensitive analysis of several relevant factors, assuming that the failure distribution follows a Weibull distribution.