WILDLIFE LOSSES IN KENYA: AN ANALYSIS OF CONSERVATION POLICY

ABSTRACT. Despite massive conservation efforts backed bysignificant international support, Kenya has lost some 44% of its large mammal fauna over the last 17 years. This catastrophic example of resource degradation stems from a mixture of policy, institutional and market failures. Policy failures include an over‐reliance on Command and Control (prohibition on consumptive use of wildlife, prohibition on use of resources within Protected Areas) without the ability to enforce compliance; subsidies to agricultural and livestock production which, by reducing marginal production costs to below social opportunitycosts, has caused the over‐conversion of rangelands to livestock and agricultural production at the expense of conservation objectives and values; and the establishment of tourism cartels which divert wildlife generated benefits awayfrom landowners. The fundamental institutional failure is the lack of property rights and use rights of landowners over wildlife. Fundamental market failures reflect the absence of financial incentives to landowners to conserve their wildlife resource, thus setting marginal depletion costs to zero, and competing production incentives. The Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) is reintroducing financial incentives to landowners by permitting some consumptive use of wildlife, bymaking substantial direct grants to landowners and communities who support wildlife and bysidelining the tourism cartels and encouraging private sector tourism on private land. However, investment in conservation is still being hampered by the continuing prohibition of high value activities such as sport hunting, and by over regulation and vacillation. Furthermore, positive net benefits to landowners from wildlife operations are not in themselves adequate to guarantee economic incentives to conserve the resource. First, significant negative externalities are associated with wildlife in that they add greatly to the production costs of livestock and agriculture; second, opportunity costs (in terms of foregone benefits of development) of leaving land undeveloped for conservation are gradually increasing in response to growing populations, expanding markets and new agricultural technology; and third, some policies are having the perverse impacts of creating poverty traps. Wildlife conservation policy must accordingly be much wider in scope and use a much broader range of economic, financial and market instruments, possibly including differential land use taxes, conservation subsidies and easements, and lease back agreements. Simply creating positive net benefits from wildlife is not enough.     

ON THE MANAGEMENT OF INTERCONNECTED WILDLIFE POPULATIONS

Abstract Economic interdependency of wildlife or fish stocks is usually attributed to ecological interdependency, such as predator–prey and competitive relationships, or to density‐dependent migration of species between different areas. This paper provides another channel for economic interdependency of wildlife where density‐independent migration and market price interaction affect the management strategies among different landowners. Management is studied under three market conditions for selling hunting licenses: price taking behavior, monopoly market, and duopoly market. Harvesting of the Scandinavian moose is used as an example. The paper provides several results on how economic interdependency works through the migration pattern. When a duopoly market is introduced, hunting license price interaction among the landowners plays an additional role in determining the optimal harvesting strategy.     

USING RESERVES TO PROTECT FISH AND WILDLIFE SIMPLIFIED MODELING APPROACHES

ABSTRACT. This paper investigates theoretically to what extent a nature reserve may protect a uniformly distributed population of fish or wildlife against negative effects of harvesting. Two objectives of this protection are considered: avoidance of population extinction and maintenance of population, at or above a given precautionary population level. The pre‐reserve population is assumed to follow the logistic growth law and two models for post‐reserve population dynamics are formulated and discussed. For Model A by assumption the logistic growth law with a common carrying capacity is valid also for the post‐reserve population growth. In Model B, it is assumed that each sub‐population has its own carrying capacity proportionate to its distribution area. For both models, migration from the high‐density area to the low‐density area is proportional to the density difference. For both models there are two possible outcomes, either a unique globally stable equilibrium, or extinction. The latter may occur when the exploitation effort is above a threshold that is derived explicitly for both models. However, when the migration rate is less than the growth rate both models imply that the reserve can be chosen so that extinction cannot occur. For the opposite case, when migration is large compared to natural growth, a reserve as the only management tool cannot assure survival of the population, but the specific way it increases critical effort is discussed.     

JOINTLY‐DETERMINED ECOLOGICAL THRESHOLDS AND ECONOMIC TRADE‐OFFS IN WILDLIFE DISEASE MANAGEMENT

ABSTRACT. We investigate wildlife disease management, in a bioeconomic framework, when the wildlife host is valuable and disease transmission is density‐dependent. Disease prevalence is reduced in density‐dependent models whenever the population is harvested below a host‐density threshold a threshold population density below which disease prevalence declines and above which a disease becomes epidemic. In conventional models, the threshold is an exogenous function of disease parameters. We consider this case and find a steady state with positive disease prevalence to be optimal. Next, we consider a case in which disease dynamics are affected by both population controls and changes in human‐environmental interactions. The host‐density threshold is endogenous in this case. That is, the manager does not simply manage the population relative to the threshold, but rather manages both the population and the threshold. The optimal threshold depends on the economic and ecological trade‐offs arising from the jointly‐determined system. Accounting for this endogene‐ity can lead to reduced disease prevalence rates and higher population levels. Additionally, we show that ecological parameters that may be unimportant in conventional models that do not account for the endogeneity of the host‐density threshold are potentially important when host density threshold is recognized as endogenous.     

MODELING THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE ECONOMIC COSTS AND BENEFITS OF ILLEGAL GAME MEAT HUNTING IN THE SERENGETI

ABSTRACT. Illegal game meat hunting in the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania, and adjacent game reserves provides an important source of protein and cash income to local communities. We construct a profitability model that describes the spatial distribution of the economic costs and benefits of illegal hunting in the Serengeti during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Costs included capital investment in hunting weapons, W_R, and the opportunity cost of hunting, W_O, both held to be constants; and two spatially variable components, the logistic effort of traveling to hunting areas, W_L, and the penalties incurred if arrested, W_P. Benefit was the expected income from the sale of meat from resident wildlife species. The model suggests: (1) W_R is the most important cost. (2) W_L is the second most important cost and likely to determine the spatial distribution of hunting activity if hunters seekto minimize costs. (3) W_O and W_P are of minor importance, the former because alternative sources of income provide low pay, the latter because the overall chance of being arrested is low. (4) W_P exceeds W_L only in areas close to the boundary of protected areas. (5) Although resident wildlife contributes only a minor share of illegal offtake compared to the migratory herds, hunting resident wildlife is profitable in 68% of the area. This suggests that hunting of resident and migratory wildlife is highly profitable and may explain why the utilization of the target populations has become increasingly unsustainable.     

A MODEL OF TROPICAL MARINE RESERVE‐FISHERY LINKAGES

ABSTRACT. The excessive and unsustainable exploitation of our marine resources has led to the promotion of marine reserves as a fisheries management tool. Marine reserves, areas in which fishing is restricted or prohibited, can offer opportunities for the recovery of exploited stock and fishery enhancement. In this paper we examine the contribution of fully protected tropical marine reserves to fishery enhancement by modeling marine reserve‐fishery linkages. The consequences of reserve establishment on the long‐run equilibrium fish biomass and fishery catch levels are evaluated. In contrast to earlier models this study highlights the roles of both adult (and juvenile) fish migration and larval dispersal between the reserve and fishing grounds by employing a spawner‐recruit model. Uniform larval dispersal, uniform larval retention and complete larval retention combined with zero, moderate and high fish migration scenarios are analyzed in turn. The numerical simulations are based on Mombasa Marine National Park, Kenya, a fully protected coral reef marine reserve comprising approximately 30% of former fishing grounds. Simulation results suggest that the establishment of a fully protected marine reserve will always lead to an increase in total fish biomass. If the fishery is moderately to heavily exploited, total fishery catch will be greater with the reserve in all scenarios of fish and larval movement. If the fishery faces low levels of exploitation, catches can be optimized without a reserve but with controlled fishing effort. With high fish migration from the reserve, catches are optimized with the reserve. The optimal area of the marine reserve depends on the exploitation rate in the neighboring fishing grounds. For example, if exploitation is maintained at 40%, the ‘optimal’ reserve size would be 10%. If the rate increases to 50%, then the reserve needs to be 30% of the management area in order to maximize catches. However, even in lower exploitation fisheries (below 40%), a small reserve (up to 20%) provides significantly higher gains in fish biomass than losses in catch. Marine reserves are a valuable fisheries management tool. To achieve maximum fishery benefits they should be complemented by fishing effort controls.     

CONSERVATION OF WILDLIFE. A BIO‐ECONOMIC MODEL OF A WILDLIFE RESERVE UNDER THE PRESSURE OF HABITAT DESTRUCTION AND HARVESTING OUTSIDE THE RESERVE

ABSTRACT. Biodiversity is today threatened by many factors of which destruction and reduction of habitats are considered most important for terrestrial species. One way to counteract these threats is to establish reserves with restrictions on land use and exploitation. However, very few reserves can be considered islands, wildlife species roam over large expanses, often via some density dependent dispersal process. As a consequence, habitat destruction, and exploitation, taking place outside will influence the species abundance inside the conservation area. The paper presents a theoretical model for analyzing this type of management problem. The model presented allows for both the common symmetric dispersal as well as what is called asymmetric dispersal between reserve and outside area. The main finding is that habitat destruction outside may not necessarily have negative impact upon the species abundance in the reserve. As a consequence, economic forces working in the direction of reducing the surrounding habitat have unclear effects on the species abundance within the protected area. We also find that harvesting outside the reserve may have quite modest effect on the species abundance in the reserve. This underlines the attractiveness of reserves from a conservation viewpoint.     

THE ECONOMICS OF CONFLICTING INTERESTS: NORTHERN BALTIC SALMON FISHERY ADAPTION TO GRAY SEAL ABUNDANCE

The successful conservation of gray seals has led to increased seal‐induced damage to the Atlantic salmon fisheries of the Baltic Sea. This paper addresses the conflict between the conservation of a formerly endangered species, the gray seal, and professional fishermen, whose livelihoods are affected by both seal‐induced damage and salmon fisheries management. We develop a bioeconomic model that incorporates the age structure of Atlantic salmon and gray seal populations. To determine the social optimum, we maximize the discounted net present value of the trap net fishery, taking into account the presence of seals in the form of seal‐induced losses, which we describe using a damage function. By choosing the optimal combination of fishing gear over time, we obtain the socially optimal fishing efforts, salmon stock size, and salmon catch. In addition, we study the private effects of introducing a technology subsidy aimed at mitigating the seal‐salmon conflict. The results suggest that technological adaptation would effectively reduce the cause of the conflict, while a technology subsidy encouraging such adaptation would shift the economic responsibility from individual fishermen to the broader public.     

MODELING: A TOOL FOR ENHANCING THE SURVIVAL PROSPECTS OF AFRICAN WILDLIFE

ABSTRACT. In this article we consider the role of modeling in some aspects of the conservation of African wildlife. The first study is concerned with the endangered black rhino. Animals are being translocated from high density areas to new sites in an attempt to build up the South African population as rapidly as possible. We investigate the efficacy of different translocation strategies. Next we discuss a spatial stochastic metapopulation model used to test management strategies to enhance the survival likelihood of the rare samango monkey. The value of the model is to encourage the use of corridor policies even though there may be little apparent observable benefit in a manager's lifetime. Finally, we look at some commercial aspects of exploiting wildlife on a sustainable basis. By increasing the profitability of wildlife enterprises the incentive to conserve is increased. We look at improving the financial returns from game ranches.     

A two-patch model for the optimal management of a fishing resource considering a marine protected area

In this work, we propose and analyze a model related with the management optimization of a renewable resource in aquatic environment composed of two different patches. Spatial distribution of each subpopulation is assumed: one is developed in a marine protected area (MPA) or a marine reserve and the other is located in a zone where fishing with open access may be effected.It is generally assumed that there may be migration between both areas, but in this work we will consider that the flux goes.When a fishing ban in the protected area is established it becomes a marine reserve, which can also be assumed as a refuge for the captured species. In this case, the marine reserve is the source and the exploitation area is a sink.The behavior of the renewable resource is modeled by a deterministic continuous time system. To establish the optimal harvesting policy, we will maximize the present value J of a continuous time stream of revenues, given by a cost functional indicating the net economic revenue to the fishermen, the perceived rent. Using Pontragyn’s Maximum Principle we will obtain the Hamiltonian function to determine the optimal policies.     

Urban public pension, replacement rates and population growth rate in China

This paper uses an overlapping generations model to investigate the urban public pension in China. It examines the effects of the replacement rates and population growth rate on the capital–labor ratio, pension benefits, consumption and utility, and finds the optimal replacement rate. It is shown that raising the individual account benefit replacement rate only induces the increase in the individual account benefits. Raising the social pool benefit replacement rate induces the increase in the social pool benefits and retirement-period consumption, while the decrease in the capital–labor ratio, individual account benefits, working-period consumption and utility. The fall in the population growth rate leads to the increase in the capital–labor ratio, social pool benefits, individual account benefits, working-period consumption and utility, and leads to a decrease in the retirement-period consumption. The optimal social pool benefit replacement rate depends on the individual discount factor, social discount factor, capital share of income and population growth rate, and it decreases in the case of falling population growth rates. It will do more good than harm to raise the individual account benefit replacement rate, reduce the social pool benefit replacement rate and strictly implement China’s population policy.     

Pricing,routing, and incentive compatibility in multiserver queues

This paper studies pricing and incentive issues in the assignment of customers to servers in a system that suffers congestion effects. When customers have private information about their waiting costs, a system administrator who wishes to maximize steady-sate net benefits per unit of time (i.e. total benefits from service minus total waiting costs) may do so using a pricing and routing scheme that is incentive compatible; that is, no customer has any incentive to reveal his private information untruthfully. When the system administrator wants to maximize toll revenue, the optimal scheme involves higher tolls, and hence lower congestion, than is socially optimal.     

CONTROL OF A METAPOPULATION HARVESTING MODEL FOR BLACK BEARS

ABSTRACT. We develop a metapopulation harvesting model that includes density‐dependent immigration and emigration and apply Pontryagin's maximum principle to derive an optimal harvesting and reserve design strategy. The model is designed to mimic the black bear population of eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina. Model results suggest that a forest region's population can be maintained despite high harvest levels due to emigration from a connected, un‐harvested park region. The amount of shared border between the park and forest region is important in determining the optimal harvesting strategy. This technique offers new insight on the spatial control of protected populations.     

THE IMPACTS OF MARINE RESERVES ON LIMITED‐ENTRY FISHERIES

ABSTRACT. We utilize a spatial bioeconomic model to investigate the impacts of creating reserves on limited‐entry fisheries. We find that reserve creation can produce win‐win situations where aggregate biomass and the common license (lease) price increase. These situations arise in biological systems where dispersal processes are prevalent and the fishery prior to reserve creation is operating at effort levels in a neighborhood of open‐access levels. We also illustrate that using strictly biological criteria for siting reserves (e.g., setting aside the most biological productive areas) will likely induce the most vociferous objections from the fishing industry. In general, we find that the dispersal rate and the degree the patches are connected play a significant role on the net impacts on the fishing sector.     

Altruistic motives,uncertain lifetime and urban public pension replacement rates

This article employs an overlapping generations model with altruistic motives and uncertain lifetime to investigate China's urban public pension system. We examine the effects of the individual account benefit replacement rate, social pool benefit replacement rate, life expectancy and population growth rate on the capital-labour ratio, pension benefits, consumption and utility. We also find the optimal social pool benefit replacement rate. Raising the individual account benefit replacement rate only increases the individual account benefits. Raising the social pool benefit replacement rate increases the social pool benefits and retirement-period consumption, whereas decreases the capital-labour ratio, individual account benefits, working-period consumption and utility. The fall in the population growth rate increases the capital-labour ratio, social pool benefits, individual account benefits, working-period consumption and utility, whereas decreases the retirement-period consumption. The rise in the life expectancy decreases the six variables. The optimal social pool benefit replacement rate falls in case of either risen life expectancy or fallen population growth rate. It further falls under the joint case of risen life expectancy and fallen population growth rate. It will do more good than harm to raise the individual account benefit replacement rate, reduce the social pool benefit replacement rate and strictly implement the population policy.     

ECOLOGICAL‐ECONOMIC MODELS OF SUSTAINABLE HARVEST FOR AN ENDANGERED BUT EXOTIC MEGAHERBIVORE IN NORTHERN AUSTRALIA

ABSTRACT. How can one manage wildlife under a suite of competing values? In isolation, the ecological economics of native wildlife harvest, threatened species conservation and control of exotic species are all well established sub‐disciplines of wildlife management. However, the wild banteng (Bos javanicus) population of northern Australia represents an interesting combination of these aspirations. A native bovid of Southeast Asia now ‘endangered’ in its native range, banteng were introduced into northern Australia in 1849. Today, a population of 8,000–10,000 resides on one small, isolated peninsula in western Arnhem Land, Northern Territory and is harvested by both recreational (trophy) and aboriginal subsistence hunters. Indigenous, industry and conservationist stakeholders differ in their requirements for population management. Here we analyze the ecological and economic costs/benefits of a series of potential harvest management options for Australia's banteng population, with the aim being either to: (1) maximize sustainable yield (MSY); (2) maximize harvest of trophy males; (3) maximize indigenous off‐take; (4) suppress density or completely eradicate the population; (5) minimize risk of extinction whilst limiting range expansion; (6) scenarios incorporating two or more of options 1–5. The modeling framework employed stochastic, density‐regulated matrix population models with life‐history parameters derived from (i) allometric relationships (for estimating r_max, generation length, fecundity and densities for a banteng‐sized mammal) and (ii) measured vital rates for wild and captive banteng and other Bos spp. For each management option, we present a simple economic analysis that incorporates estimated costs of management implementation and associated profits projected. Results demonstrate that revenue of >Ä$200,000 is possible from meat production and safari hunting without compromising long‐term population stability or the conservation status of this endangered bovid.     

THE ECONOMICS OF MARINE RESERVES

ABSTRACT. Marine reserves can be a useful supplement to other methods of fisheries management, but marine reserves alone are not likely to achieve a great deal in economic terms andperhaps not even in terms of conservation. The effects of marine reserves with open access elsewhere are analyzed, using a logistic model for a population with a patchy distribution. It is assumedthat a marine reserve is establishedfor the territory of one of two sub‐populations which interact through migrations. The total population increases while the total catch declines for the most part. A high rate of migration would, however, dilute the conservation effect. Examining a stochastic variant of the model shows that the variability (sum of squareddeviations) of catches may decrease as a result of protecting one of the sub‐populations. Even if all rents disappear by assumption, it is possible to identify this as an economic benefit, particularly when the average catch increases. The variability of the catch falls for a range of values of the population migration parameter and variability of growth, both when the stochastic disturbances are independent and when they are perfectly correlated for the two sub‐populations, andalso when the growth variability parameter differs between the sub‐populations.     

MODELING THE EFFECT OF RARITY VALUE ON THE EXPLOITATION OF A WILDLIFE SPECIES SUBJECTED TO THE ALLEE EFFECT

The overexploitation of wildlife species is a serious problem in the field of biodiversity conservation. The species subjected to natural Allee effects are even more threatened by exploitation. Moreover, for many wildlife species, their rarity can fuel their exploitation by making them disproportionately desirable and consequently increasing their market price. In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study how the value that consumers place on rarity can threaten the survival of a species subjected to natural Allee effects. It is assumed that the value of a species increases as its density declines. The analysis of model shows that the increase in the consumers' response to rarity can drive the system to admit Hopf‐bifurcation and heteroclinic bifurcation. The occurrence of the heteroclinic cycle indicates that the increase in consumers' response to rarity can cause the extinction of the species. It is found that an increase in the Allee threshold causes a decrease in the threshold value of consumers' response below which extinction is inevitable.     

SUSTAINABLE FOREST MANAGEMENT FOR OPTIMIZING MULTISPECIES WILDLIFE HABITAT: A COASTAL DOUGLAS-FIR EXAMPLE

Wildlife species viability optimization models are developed to convert a given set of initial forest conditions, through a combination of natural growth and management treatments, to a forest system which addresses the joint habitat needs of multispecies populations over time. A linear model of forest cover and wildlife populations is used to form a system of forest management control variables for wildlife habitat modification. The paper examines two objective functions coupled to this system for optimizing sustainable joint species viability. The first maximizes the product of periodic joint viabilities over all time periods, focusing management resources on long-term equilibria, with less emphasis on conversion strategy. The second iteratively maximizes the minimum periodic joint viability over all time periods. This focuses management resources on the most limiting time periods, typically the conversion phase periods. Both objective functions resulted in either point or cyclic equilibria, with cycle lengths equal to minimum forest treatment ages. A third objective, based on maximizing the minimum individual species periodic viability is used to examine single species emphasis. Examples are developed through a case study of 92 vertebrate species found in coastal Douglas-fir stands of northwestern California.     

FROM HARVESTING TO NONHARVESTING UTILITY: AN OPTIMAL CONTROL APPROACH TO SPECIES CONSERVATION

The purpose of this paper is to retrace the evolution of mathematical models focused on relation and interaction between economic growth, sustainable development, and natural environment conservation. First, generic defensive expenditures are introduced into a common‐property harvesting model in order to favor the species growth. Second, a transition model comprising both harvesting and nonharvesting values of wildlife biological species emerges. The latter gives rise to a group of purely nonharvesting models where anthropic activities and economic growth may have positive or negative impact on the natural evolution of wildlife species. Several scholars have proved that optimal strategies that are relatively good for harvesting purposes are not simply “transferrable” to the context of conservation of wildlife biological species with no harvesting value. In addition, the existence of optimal policies for long‐term conservation of all biological species (with or without harvesting value) cannot be guaranteed without having relatively large species populations at the initial time. Therefore, all such strategies are incapable of enhancing the scarce populations of endangered species and, therefore, cannot save these species from eventual (local) extinction. As an alternative, policymakers may soon be compelled to design and implement short‐term defensive actions aimed at recovery and enhancement of endangered wildlife species.