INTEGRATING MARINE PROTECTED AREAS INTO MODELS FOR FISHERY ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT

ABSTRACT. Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been proposed as an insurance policy against fishery management failures and as an integral part of an optimal management system for some fisheries. However, an incorrectly designed MPA can increase the risk of depletion of some species, and can reduce the value of the system of fisheries it impacts. MPAs may alter structural processes that relate fishery outcomes to management variables and thereby compromise the models that are used to guide decisions. New models and data gathering programs are needed to use MPAs effectively. This paper discusses the motivations and methods for incorporating explicitly spatial dynamics of both fish and fishermen into fishery models so that they can be used to assess spatial policies such as MPAs. Some important characteristics and capabilities which these models should have are outlined, and a topical review of some relevant modeling methodologies is provided.     

INDIVIDUAL TRANSFERABLE QUOTAS AND PRODUCTION EXTERNALITIES IN A FISHERY

This paper determines the conditions under which an individual transferable quota (ITQ) system will cause fishermen to engage in cost-decreasing, rather than cost-increasing, competition. If there are production externalities (e.g., congestion or stock externalities) present, the market price of a quota will not be fully reflected in these externalities. Thus, fishermen will not fully internalize the externalities in their effort decisions. Even if there are no production externalities, an individual fisherman imposes costs on others under open access by removing a fish that was available to all fishermen. An ITQ system allows the individual who values that fish most to obtain the right to harvest the fish, so each fisherman must internalize the full social cost. Thus, an ITQ system is capable of solving the common property externality but not the production externalities in a fishery.     

RUMINATIONS ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND FUTURE OF POPULATION DYNAMICS MODELS IN FISHERIES

ABSTRACT. I trace the development of fisheries models (i.e., fish population dynamics models of species subject to fisheries) to the 21st century. The first real efforts occurred in the period 1900 1920 with the work of Baranov (the “Grandfather” of fisheries population dynamics) and the formation of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). The establishment of the science occurred between 1920 1960 with multi‐species modeling, age‐ and size‐structure dynamics, and production models. Fundamental work during this time was done by Ricker (the “Father” of fisheries population dynamics), Beverton and Holt (the “Prophets” of fisheries population dynamics), Chapman, Dickie, DeLury, Graham, Gulland, Leslie, Lotka and Volterra, Russell, Schaefer, and Thompson. During this time, most of the workwas deterministic and mathematical. Between 1960 and 1980, statistical methodology evolved greatly but was separate from mathematical advances for the most part. The development of statistical principles for the estimation of animal abundance was further enhanced by Arnason, Buckland, Burnham and Anderson and White, Cormack, Eberhardt, Jolly, Manly, Pollock, Ricker, Robson, and Seber, among others. Fisheries models evolved in a deterministic setting, with advances in age‐structured models (Gulland, Pope, Doubleday), surplus production models (Pella, Tomlin‐son, Schnute, Fletcher, Hilborn), growth models, bioeconomic models (C. Clark) and management control models (Hilborn, Walters). The period 1980 2000 was the Golden Age. The integration between mathematics and statistics occurred when likelihood and least squares techniques were formally combined with mathematical models of population change. The number of fisheries modelers grew exponentially during this time, resulting in a concomitant increase in publications. A major advance in the 1990s has been the development of Bayesian and time series methods, which have allowed explicit specification of uncertainty. Currently, theory allows realistic modeling of age‐ and size‐structured populations, migratory populations and harvesting strategies. These models routinely incorporate measurement error, process error (stochasticity) and time variation. But data needs often overwhelm the performance of models, and greater demands are being placed on models to answer complex questions. There has been poor communication between fisheries and ecological modelers, between fisheries researchers and statisticians, and among fisheries researchers in different geographic locales. Future models will need to deal better with habitat and spatial concerns, genetics, multispecies interactions, environmental factors, effects of harvesting on the ecosystem, model misspecification and so‐cioeconomic concerns. Meta‐analysis, retrospective analysis and operating models are some modern approaches for dealing with uncertainty and providing for sustainable fisheries. However, I fear that current attacks on single‐species models and management may result in rejection of these advances and an attempt to substitute a less scientific approach.     

MODELS FOR COOPERATION AND CONSPIRACY IN FISHERIES: CHANGING THE RULES OF THE GAME

Fisheries regulation is considered necessary to counteract the effects of competitive forces which can lead to a “tragedy of the commons”. Yet management initiatives have often failed because they did not take into account competitive responses of fishing enterprises. In particular, open access fisheries provide strong incentives for the development of excessive harvesting capacity. This in turn leads to harvesting that is concentrated in space and time, with adverse effects on both the resource and markets. A coalition of fishermen, such as a fishermen's cooperative, has interests similar to those of a sole owner, and thus would be expected to produce more efficient behaviour. In practice, however, fishermen's cooperatives seldom persist. Game theory is used to explore relationships between the coalition structure of the industry, economic variables, and regulation. The models are based loosely on a purse seine fishery for herring. The results suggest that the potential to form stable coalitions is affected by changes in price and harvest. Changes in regulation also affect stability of coalitions. When interpreted in the light of historical changes in the herring fishery, these results suggest that industry may not accept regulations which do not permit formation of stable coalitions.     

WHY INCREASED UNCERTAINTY MAY LEAD TO MORE RISKY BEHAVIOR

The purpose of this article is to investigate circumstances under which it may be optimal to deliberately harvest a fish stock to extinction applying a stochastic surplus growth model. It is known from the literature that deliberate extinction may result when there is critical depensation or when the discount rate is high compared to the intrinsic growth rate. Here it is shown that deliberate extinction may also be optimal when the degree of stochasticitry is high even with zero discounting. A high degree of stochasticity may have the same effect as critical depensation even though it is not present in the biological model. In other words, high uncertainty, instead of leading to more conservative harvesting as is usually expected, in this model result in more aggressive harvesting and more risky behavior. The main message is therefore always to try to keep the stock well above any critical limit.     

THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WETLANDS AND WATERFOWL IN WESTERN CANADA: INCORPORATING CROPPING DECISIONS INTO A BIOECONOMIC MODEL

Abstract We extend an earlier bioeconomic model of optimal duck harvest and wetland retention in the Prairie Pothole Region of Western Canada to include cropping decisions. Instead of a single state equation, the model has two state equations representing the population dynamics of ducks and the amount of wetlands. We use the model to estimate the impact of climate change on wetlands and waterfowl, including direct climate effects as well as land use change due to biofuel policies aimed at mitigating climate change. The model predicts that climate change will reduce wetlands by 37–56% from historic levels. Land use change due to biofuel policies is expected to reduce wetlands by between 35% and 45% from historic levels, whereas direct climate effects will range from a reduction of 2–11%, depending on the future climate scenario. This result indicates that models that neglect the effect of land use changes underestimate the effect of climate change on wetlands. Further, wetlands loss is geographically heterogeneous, with losses being the largest in Saskatchewan.     

FEATURES OF BIOECONOMICS MODELS FOR THE OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT OF A FISHERY EXPLOITED BY TWO DIFFERENT FLEETS

ABSTRACT. After the extension of the Exclusive Economic Zone, in 1977, to 200 miles, most fish stocks came under jurisdiction of the adjacent coastal states. This development opened prospects of effective management of the open sea fisheries. Coastal states have the right to plan out the operation of so-called by Clarke and Munro “distant water fishing nations” from their Exclusive Economic Zone. Under some arrangements, a foreign fleet is allowed to harvest the resource in the Exclusive Economic Zone area. Clarke and Munro, in [1987] and [1991], focus on the issue of optimum terms and conditions of access and, in doing so, built a multiobjective model. The main goal of the present work is the development of a more general model including more variables and parameters related to the presence of a domestic fleet as well as a distant water fishing nation. The main difficulty resides in sharing the harvesting between the two fleets. The study responds to the realistic problemof coastal states who own enough resource stocks to allow harvesting by several kinds of fleets. Two optimal scenarios are developed, in each of them a solution is given.     

ON HYPERBOLIC TIME DISCOUNTING IN EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCE MODELS: AN APPLICATION TO WORLD OIL RESOURCES

ABSTRACT. Recent research on discounting in long term economic models involves hyperbolic discounting, in which the marginal discount rate shrinks as time passes. To investigate hyperbolic discounting and exhaustible resource allocation, this work develops a discrete‐time world oil model and model solution procedure, then uses the model to examine the consequences of adopting conventional (constant annual) discounting when hyperbolic discounting is appropriate, of adopting one hyperbolic discount rate path when a different hyperbolic path is appropriate, and of adopting hyperbolic discounting when conventional discounting is appropriate. Five conventional and two hyperbolic discount rate paths are considered. One hyperbolic path is that used by Nordhaus and Boyer [2000]; the other is that recommended by Weitzman [2001]. The generality of the findings is also assessed.     

RANDOM PENALTIES AND RENEWABLE RESOURCES: A MECHANISM TO REACH OPTIMAL LANDINGS IN FISHERIES

Abstract Recent literature considers illegal landings a moral hazard problem that arises because individual landings are unobservable. The literature proposes incentive schemes to solve the information problem. However, most of the proposed schemes raise huge information requirements and social budget balance is not secured. In this paper, we suggest a random penalty mechanism that reduces the information requirements and secures budget balance in the case of a given number of licensed vessels. In the random penalty mechanism, aggregate landings are measured through stock sizes and the natural growth function. If aggregate landings are below optimal landings, each fisherman receives a subsidy. If aggregate catches are above optimal landings, the mechanism works such that either the fisherman is randomly selected and pays a fine or the fisherman is not selected and receives a subsidy. The fine and subsidy can be designed such that budget balance is secured. Provided risk aversion is sufficiently large and the fine is high enough, the random penalty mechanism will generate optimal individual landings. The budget balance combined with risk aversion drives the result for this advanced tax/subsidy system that does not exhaust the resource rents. The budget balance creates interdependence between fishermen that secure optimality.     

AN INDICATOR FOR ECOSYSTEM EXTERNALITIES IN FISHING

Ecosystem externalities arise when one use of an ecosystem affects its other uses through the production functions of the ecosystem. We use simulations with a size‐spectrum ecosystem model to investigate the ecosystem externality created by fishing of multiple species. The model is based upon general ecological principles and is calibrated to the North Sea. Two fleets are considered: a “forage fish” fleet targeting species that mature at small sizes and a “large fish” fleet targeting large piscivorous species. Based on the marginal analysis of the present value of the rent, we develop a benefit indicator that explicitly divides the consequences of fishing into internal and external benefits. This analysis demonstrates that the forage fish fleet has a notable economic impact on the large fish fleet, but the reverse is not true. The impact can be either negative or positive, which entails that for optimal economic exploitation, the forage fishery has to be adjusted according to the large fish fishery. With the present large fish fishery in the North Sea, the two fisheries are well adjusted; however, the present combined exploitation level is too high to achieve optimal economic rents.     

均匀设计抽样的应用

均匀设计抽样是张润楚和王兆军提出的，并且张润楚和王兆军从理论上证明了它的优良性质。本文考虑了均匀设计抽样在求函数的最大值，积分的近似计算，回归直线的拟合和极大似然估计的求取方面的应用。模拟的结果再次说明了均匀设计抽样的优良性。     

MULTISPECIES AND SINGLE‐SPECIES MODELS OF FISH POPULATION DYNAMICS: COMPARING PARAMETER ESTIMATES

Abstract Population features inferred from single‐species, age‐structured models are compared to those inferred from a multispecies, age‐structured model that includes predator‐prey interactions among three commercially harvested fish species—walleye pollock, Atka mackerel, and Pacific cod—on the Aleutian Shelf, Alaska. The multispecies framework treats the single‐species models and data as a special case of the multispecies model and data. The same data from fisheries and surveys are used to estimate model parameters for both single‐species and multispecies configurations of the model. Additionally, data from stomach samples and predator rations are used to estimate the parameters of the multispecies model. One form of the feeding functional response, predator pre‐emption, was selected using AIC from seven alternative models for how the predation rate changes with the densities of prey and possibly other predators. Differences in estimated population dynamics and productivity between the multispecies and single‐species models were observed. The multispecies model estimated lower mackerel population sizes from 1964–2003 than the single‐species model, while the spawning biomass of pollock was estimated to have declined more than three times faster since 1964 by the multispecies model. The variances around the estimates of spawning biomass were smaller for mackerel and larger for pollock in the multispecies model compared to the single‐species model.     

A NOTE ON THE CONSISTENCY OF LS ESTIMATES IN LINEAR MODELS

Consider,the linear regression modelyi = x'iβ ei, 1≤i≤n, n≥1, (1)where x1, x2,' are known Hvectors, P is the unknown pdimensional vector of regressioncoefficiellts, e13 e2,' is a seqdence of iid. random errors, and y1, y2t' are known obser-vations of the dependellt variable. Denote by F the common distribution of e1, e2,' t andwrite9. = {F: j:xar=0, 0< j:lxl'aF< oo}, 1 5 r 5 2.The Least Squares (LS) estimate of P isn rs)n = Z SJ'x.ui, Sn = Zxix:.. i=1 i=1Here we tacitly assum…     

FROM THE GOLDEN AGE TO THE NEW INDUSTRIAL AGE: FISHERY MODELING IN THE EARLY 21ST CENTURY

ABSTRACT. If the Golden Age of fishery modeling is over, the New Industrial Age is beginning. In this new age (the early decades of the 21st century), we¹ expect to see increasing use of high‐level modeling tools, assessments closely tailored to each stock and its data, more multi‐agency collaboration, wider use of multiple‐model assessments, and extensive peer review of stock assessments. We hope that fishery management, as well, will be seen as a proper object of peer review, from which it should benefit substantially. We believe that increasing attention will be paid to financial efficiency, both in shaping data collection programs and in specifying what information must be modeled to effect management. If presently depleted stocks start to recover, analysts will be required to examine in more detail the dynamics of increasing stocks. That would constitute a pleasant duty, and one that may yield new insights in population biology.     

机构投资者参与公司治理监督的非合作对策

本文研究了 n个机构投资者在参与公司治理 ,对公司实施监督的过程中非合作博弈情况 .在 n个机构投资者不卖出股份等相关假设下 ,其非合作博弈结果是 ,持有股份最大机构投资者才会对公司进行监督 ,其他股东采取搭便车策略 .     

线性模型中误差为相依情形下误差方差估计的Berry—Esseen界限

本文主要讨论了线性模型中误差为α－混合强一稳序列情形下，误差方差估计的Ｂｅｒｒｙ－Ｅｓｓｅｅｎ界限，其阶为ｎ＾－１／２＋λ。     

基于纵向数据的ZIP和ZIB非线性回归模型的随机效应存在性检验(英文)

本文研究了基于纵向数据的ZIP和ZIB模型的随机效应存在性检验问题.采用score检验方法,得到了,可用矩阵表示的score检验统计量.最后,用一个数据实例说明检验方法的有效性.     

误差服从多元t分布的一类线性模型下参数估计的若干注记

研究一类线性模型下参数估计的若干问题．这类模型包含了多个因变量线性模型、增长曲线模型、扩充的增长曲线模型、似乎不相关回归方程组、方差分量模型等常用模型．在这类线性模型下,证明了当误差服从多元t分布时与误差服从多元正态分布时,具有相同的完全统计量和无偏估计,且在后一种情况下的充分统计量必为前一种情况下的充分统计量．对于带有多种协方差结构的前述几种模型,把在误差服从多元正态分布下,相应的协方差阵及有关参数的一致最小风险无偏(UMRU)估计存在性的结论推广到了相应的误差服从多元t分布情形．此外,对于误差服从多元t分布的这类统一的线性模型,给出了回归系数的线性可估函数的无偏估计的协方差阵的C-R下界．