On the unimodality of the manufacturer's objective function in the newsvendor model

We derive new sufficient conditions for the manufacturer's profit function to be unimodal. We show that if the demand density function is unimodal and right-skewed, then the profit function is quasi-concave over the support of the distribution. We also report some counterintuitive properties of the profit function.     

Buyback contracts with price-dependent demands: Effects of demand uncertainty

We explore buyback contracts in a supplier–retailer supply chain where the retailer faces a price-dependent downward-sloping demand curve subject to uncertainty. Differentiated from the existing literature, this work focuses on analytically examining how the uncertainty level embedded in market demand affects the applicability of buyback contracts in supply chain management. To this end, we seek to characterize the buyback model in terms of only the demand uncertainty level (DUL). With this new research perspective, we have obtained some interesting new findings for buyback. For example, we find that (1) even though the supply chain’s efficiency will change over the DUL with a wholesale price-only contract, it will be maintained constantly at that of the corresponding deterministic demand setting with buyback, regardless of the DUL; (2) in the practice of buyback, the buyback issuer should adjust only the buyback price in reaction to different DULs while leave the wholesale price unchanged as that in the corresponding deterministic demand setting; (3) only in the demand setting with an intermediate level of the uncertainty (which is identified quantitatively in Theorem 5), buyback provision is beneficial simultaneously for the supplier, the retailer, and the supply chain system, while this is not the case in the other demand settings. This work reveals that DUL can be a critical factor affecting the applicability of supply chain contracts.     

The effect of demand uncertainty in a price-setting newsvendor model

We study the effects of demand uncertainty on optimal decisions and the expected profit of a price-setting newsvendor who faces either additive or multiplicative stochastic demand. Our key findings are as follows. (1) A stochastically larger demand may even lead to a smaller order size and a lower profit when price is endogenous. (2) A stochastically larger demand will lead to a higher selling price in general for the additive demand case but to a lower selling price under certain mild conditions for the multiplicative demand case. Moreover, if the larger demand can be represented by a transformation of the lower one, it will lead to a higher expected profit for both demand cases. However, except for the setting with a zero shortage cost, a larger demand may not necessarily result in a higher expected profit in general. (3) Under mild conditions, a less variable demand will lead to a higher and lower selling price for the additive and multiplicative demand case, respectively, and a higher expected profit for both cases.     

On sequential commitment in the price-dependent newsvendor model

We investigate the effect of sequential commitment in the decentralized newsvendor model with price-dependent demand. Sequential commitment allows the self-profit maximizing parties to commit to contract parameters (e.g., wholesale price, retail price, buyback price and order quantity) sequentially and alternately, and we investigate its effect on the equilibrium profits of the channel and its members. Sequential commitment introduces more flexibility to contracting in the supply chain and our analysis can provide some insight to channel members who follow a bargaining process to determine the values of contract parameters. We show that the introduction of sequential commitment to the price-dependent (PD) newsvendor model with buybacks can significantly improve the manufacturer’s and the channel expected profits, but it can also decrease the retailer’s expected profit. Finally, we demonstrate that with sequential commitment, under some conditions, the choice of the first mover is endogenized and we identify the unique sequence of commitments by channel members that would arise in equilibrium.     

Robust multi-market newsvendor models with interval demand data

We present a robust model for determining the optimal order quantity and market selection for short-life-cycle products in a single period, newsvendor setting. Due to limited information about demand distribution in particular for short-life-cycle products, stochastic modeling approaches may not be suitable. We propose the minimax regret multi-market newsvendor model, where the demands are only known to be bounded within some given interval. In the basic version of the problem, a linear time solution method is developed. For the capacitated case, we establish some structural results to reduce the problem size, and then propose an approximation solution algorithm based on integer programming. Finally, we compare the performance of the proposed minimax regret model against the typical average-case and worst-case models. Our test results demonstrate that the proposed minimax regret model outperformed the average-case and worst-case models in terms of risk-related criteria and mean profit, respectively.     

Coordination mechanism for the supply chain with leadtime consideration and price-dependent demand

We study a coordination contract for a supplier–retailer channel producing and selling a fashionable product exhibiting a stochastic price-dependent demand. The product’s selling season is short, and the supply chain faces great demand uncertainty. We consider a scenario where the supplier reserves production capacity for the retailer in advance, and permits the retailer to place an order not exceeding the reserved capacity after a demand information update during a leadtime. We formulate a two-stage optimization problem in which the supplier decides the amount of capacity reservation in the first stage, and the retailer determines the order quantity and the retail price after observing the demand information in the second stage. We propose a three-parameter risk and profit sharing contract that coordinates the supply chain. The proposed contract permits any agreed-upon division of the supply-chain profit between the channel members.     

Sensitivity analysis of the newsvendor model

Quality of decisions in inventory management models depends on the accuracy of parameter estimates used for decision making. In many situations, error in decision making is unavoidable. In such cases, sensitivity analysis is necessary for better implementation of the model. Though the newsvendor model is one of the most researched inventory models, little is known about its robustness. In this paper, we perform sensitivity analysis of the classical newsvendor model. Conditions for symmetry/skewness of cost deviation (i.e., deviation of expected demand–supply mismatch cost from its minimum) have been identified. These conditions are closely linked with symmetry/skewness of the demand density function. A lower bound of cost deviation is established for symmetric unimodal demand distributions. Based on demonstrations of the lower bound, we found the newsvendor model to be sensitive to sub-optimal ordering decisions, more sensitive than the economic order quantity model. Order quantity deviation (i.e., deviation of order quantity from its optimum) is explored briefly. We found the magnitude of order quantity deviation to be comparable with that of parameter estimation error. Mean demand is identified as the most influential parameter in deciding order quantity deviation.     

A maximum entropy approach to the newsvendor problem with partial information

In this paper, we consider the newsvendor model under partial information, i.e., where the demand distribution D is partly unknown. We focus on the classical case where the retailer only knows the expectation and variance of D. The standard approach is then to determine the order quantity using conservative rules such as minimax regret or Scarf’s rule. We compute instead the most likely demand distribution in the sense of maximum entropy. We then compare the performance of the maximum entropy approach with minimax regret and Scarf’s rule on large samples of randomly drawn demand distributions. We show that the average performance of the maximum entropy approach is considerably better than either alternative, and more surprisingly, that it is in most cases a better hedge against bad results.     

A minimax distribution-free procedure for a newsvendor problem with free shipping

In this paper, we study the optimal policies of retailers who operate their inventory with a single period model (i.e., newsvendor model) under a free shipping offer where a fixed shipping fee is exempted if an order quantity is greater than or equal to a given minimum quantity. Zhou et al. (2009) have explored this model, and we further investigate their analysis for the optimal ordering policies which they did not sufficiently develop. Based on the investigation, we extend the base model in order to deal with the practically important aspect of inventory management when the exact distribution function of demand is not available. We incorporate the aspect into the base model and present the optimal policies for the extended model with a numerical example. Finally, we conduct extensive numerical experiments to evaluate the performance of the extended model and analyze the impacts of minimum free shipping quantity and the fixed shipping fee on the performance.     

On the impact of suboptimal decisions in the newsvendor model

We study the impact of suboptimal decisions in the newsvendor model, one of the popular inventory models. We establish a lower bound for the deviation of inventory cost from its minimum, when the order quantity is suboptimal. Demonstration of the bound shows the model to be sensitive to suboptimal decisions.     

Multi-criteria supplier selection problem with fuzzy demand: a newsvendor model

Computational Management Science - In sourcing decisions, a buyer encounters three main issues. The first issue is the demand uncertainty that leads the buyer to find the optimal inventory level...     

Managing inventories with one-way substitution: A newsvendor analysis

This paper presents an insightful approach to analyze two-item periodic inventory systems with one-way substitution. The objective is to minimize the expected total cost per period, which consists of expected purchasing costs, expected inventory holding costs, expected shortage costs, and expected adjustment costs. This approach helps derive the optimality conditions in both single-period and infinite horizon settings and yields useful insights into the impact of substitution on the service level, the optimality of a borderline case in which the order-up-to level of the inflexible item is reduced to zero, and the pivotal role of the purchasing cost.     

A fuzzy genetic algorithm with varying population size to solve an inventory model with credit-linked promotional demand in an imprecise planning horizon

A genetic algorithm (GA) with varying population size is developed where crossover probability is a function of parents’ age-type (young, middle-aged, old, etc.) and is obtained using a fuzzy rule base and possibility theory. It is an improved GA where a subset of better children is included with the parent population for next generation and size of this subset is a percentage of the size of its parent set. This GA is used to make managerial decision for an inventory model of a newly launched product. It is assumed that lifetime of the product is finite and imprecise (fuzzy) in nature. Here wholesaler/producer offers a delay period of payment to its retailers to capture the market. Due to this facility retailer also offers a fixed credit-period to its customers for some cycles to boost the demand. During these cycles demand of the item increases with time at a decreasing rate depending upon the duration of customers’ credit-period. Models are formulated for both the crisp and fuzzy inventory parameters to maximize the present value of total possible profit from the whole planning horizon under inflation and time value of money. Fuzzy models are transferred to deterministic ones following possibility/necessity measure on fuzzy goal and necessity measure on imprecise constraints. Finally optimal decision is made using above mentioned GA. Performance of the proposed GA on the model with respect to some other GAs are compared.     

A two-echelon supply chain of a returnable product with fuzzy demand

This study investigates the effects of the manufacturer’s refund on retailer’s unsold products for the two-echelon decentralized and centralized supply chains of a short life and returnable product with trapezoidal fuzzy demand, in which retailer returns the unsold and the customer’s unsatisfactory products to the manufacturer. For each returnable chain, we obtain the closed-form solution of order quantity to maximize the total expected profit of the supply chain, and confirm that demand fuzziness does indeed affect the order quantity and the members’ expected profits. We provide a number of managerial insights by comparing both chains and show that each chain is more advantageous to the members depending on certain condition. Our models are appropriate for a supply chain with a returnable product that lacks information about the demand.     

A fuzzy newsvendor approach to supply chain coordination

In the absence of a clear command and control structure, a key challenge in supply chain management is the coordination and alignment of supply chain members who pursue divergent and often conflicting goals. The newsvendor model is typically used as a framework to quantify the cost of misalignment and to assess the impact of various coordination initiatives. The application of the newsvendor framework, however, requires the specification of some probability distribution for the sources of uncertainty, and in particular, for the market demand. The specification of an adequate demand distribution becomes difficult in the absence of statistical data. We therefore consider a fuzzy approach to the newsvendor problem. We use several fuzzy parameters in the model for the demand, the wholesale price, and the market sales price. We solve the fuzzy newsvendor problem to study three coordination policies: quantity discounts, profit sharing, and buyback. For each coordination policy, the optimal order quantity of the retailer is computed. The possible profits of the members in the supply chain are calculated with minimum sharing of private information. We further extend the fuzzy newsvendor model to a setting with a single manufacturer and multiple retailers under the assumption of ample capacity for the manufacturer. Detailed numerical examples are also provided.     

Traffic assignment model with fuzzy level of travel demand: An efficient algorithm based on quasi-Logit formulas

The place of fuzzy concepts in traffic assignment (TA) models has been studied in recent literature. Keeping fuzzy level of travel demand in mind, we propose a new TA model in which the travel costs of links are depended on their congestion. From the results of such fuzzy TA model, network planners are able to estimate the number of travelers on network links. By using zero–one variables, the proposed model is transformed into a crisp mixed-integer problem with respect to path-flow variables. In order to produce the Logit flows from this problem, Damberg et al. algorithm is modified. Then, the level of certainty is maximized and perceived travel delays are minimized. For a fixed certainty degree, the obtained solution, which is named the fuzzy equilibrium flow, satisfies a quasi-Logit formula similar to ordinary expression of the Logit route choice model. Eventually, we examine the quality of different path enumeration techniques in the proposed model.     

Fuzzy periodic review system with fuzzy random variable demand

In this paper, a periodic review inventory system has been analyzed in a mixed imprecise and uncertain environment where fuzziness and randomness appear simultaneously. A model has been developed with customer demand assumed to be a fuzzy random variable. The lead-time has been assumed to be a constant. The lead-time demand and the lead-time plus one period’s demand have also been assumed to be fuzzy random variables. A methodology has been developed to determine the optimal inventory level and the optimal period of review such that the total expected annual cost in the fuzzy sense is minimized. A numerical example has been presented to illustrate the model.     

A quadratic programming approach to the multi-product newsvendor problem with side constraints

A quadratic programming approach is proposed for solving the newsvendor problem with side constraints. Among its salient features are the facts that it: utilizes familiar packages to solve the problem such as Excel Solver and Lingo, can accommodate lower bounds of product’s demands that are larger than zero, and facilitates the performance of sensitivity analysis tasks.     

A semi-parametric approach for estimating critical fractiles under autocorrelated demand

Forecasting critical fractiles of the lead time demand distribution is an important problem for operations managers making newsvendor-type inventory decisions. In this paper, we propose a semi-parametric approach to forecasting the critical fractile when demand is serially correlated. Starting from a user-defined but potentially misspecified forecasting model, we use historical demand data to generate empirical forecast errors of this model. These errors are then used to (1) parametrically correct for any bias in the point forecast conditional on the recent demand history and (2) non-parametrically estimate the critical fractile of the demand distribution without imposing distributional assumptions. We present conditions under which this semi-parametric approach provides a consistent estimate of the critical fractile and evaluate its finite sample properties using simulation and real data for retail inventory planning.     

Oligopoly newsvendor competition with reference effects

We analyze the equilibrium of a behavioral newsvendor game featuring oligopoly competition, where each newsvendor’s decision is driven by a reference effect regarding her potential profit. We find that the equilibrium order quantities are characterized by behavioral critical fractiles, where each newsvendor only accounts for the actions of competitors with smaller behavioral critical fractiles. Our result generalizes findings from recent literature on duopoly newsvendor competition with reference effects.