On the properties of small sample of GM(1,1) model

In grey prediction modeling, the more samples selected the more errors. This paper puts forward new explanations of “incomplete information and small sample” of grey systems and expands the suitable range of grey system theory. Based on the geometric sequence, it probes into the influence on the relative errors by selecting the different sample sizes. The research results indicate that to the non-negative increasing monotonous exponential sequence, the more samples selected, the more average relative errors. To the non-negative decreasing monotonous exponential sequence, a proper sample number exists that has the least average relative error. When the initial value of the sequence of raw data of new information GM(1,1) model changes, the development coefficient remains unchanged. The segmental correction new information GM(1,1) model (SNGM) can obviously improve the simulation accuracy. It puts forward the mathematic proofs that the small sample usually has more accuracy than the large sample when establishing GM(1,1) model in theory.     

On novel grey forecasting model based on non-homogeneous index sequence

To solve the problem that traditional grey models were constructed on the hypothesis that the original data sequence is in accord with homogeneous index trend rather than non-homogeneous index trend. A novel grey forecasting model based on non-homogeneous index sequence approximately (abbreviated as NDGM) is proposed. It is proved that the models based on homogeneous index sequence are all special cases that of non-homogeneous index sequence. The recursive function of the NDGM model is proposed and the forecasting precision of the model based on pure non-homogeneous index sequence is discussed and the affine properties of the model are further studied. Finally, one numerical case is used to show the effective results of the proposed model.     

空间影响与环境库兹涅茨曲线:基于空间经济计量方法的实证分析

本文选取中国及周边21个国家和地区基于能源消费的二氧化碳排放量作为环境污染指标,利用空间经济计量方法对中国及其周边国家和地区的环境库兹涅茨曲线进行估计,估计结果显示空间影响显著存在。因此政府在制定环境政策时,不能只考虑本国或本地区的自身要素条件,还要充分分析和利用周边国家和地区的自然和技术条件。     

The effect of a generalized nonlinear incidence rate on the stochastic SIS epidemic model

In this paper, we aim to analyze the classical SIS epidemic model with a generalized force of infection (including nonmonotonic cases), where the transmission rate is perturbed by white noise. Using Feller's test for explosions, we prove that the disease dies out with probability one without any restriction on the model parameters.     

我国人才发展预测与对策

改革开放以来,我国人才总量不断增长,人才素质不断提高,人才结构得到明显改善.本文利用灰色预测模型,按新旧人才标准对我国的人才总量进行了预测;同时,对我国人才发展过程中出现的高层次人才、部分重要行业人才缺口、人才的专业和地区结构问题给出了相应的对策.     

Lotka-Volterra模型参数的灰色估计法及其应用

基于灰色直接建模法,提出了估计Lotka-Volterra模型参数的一种方法,较好的反映了相互影响的两个变量之间的互惠、竞争等关系,为定性预测分析提供了实证支持,并得到了定量预测的结果.实例说明本模型的有效性和适用性.并证明了数乘交换不影响原始序列的模拟精度,为解决灰色预测模型的病态性提供了思路.     

The effect of diffusion on the permanence of Smith population model in a polluted patch

IntroductionThe effect of diffusion on the permanence of population has been studied in some refer-ences. LevinI1] set up the followiIlg model to study the effect of diffusion on the permanence ofpopulation:: f \' \ =.tvhere ur(t) defines the number of population i in patch p, uu = (ut,'. u:). f,u(uu) isthe int!.i11sic growth rate fOr population t, and D:' is the (1iffosive rate of population l frompatch 7 to patch U. Hastingsi2J proved that the positive equilibrium state is stab1e for suf…     

全要素生产率和产业结构对能源利用影响的实证分析

本文利用能源消耗模型进行实证分析,结果表明决定能源利用效率的关键因素和长期因素是全要素生产率,全要素生产率的不断提高导致了我国经济快速发展而单位GDP能源消耗不断降低的特殊现象.产业结构对能源消耗有显著的短期影响,当第一产业比例下降或第二产业比例上升时,能源消耗增加。市场化程度、对外开放程度对能源消耗的作用体现在全要素生产率中.2000年后能源消耗重新抬头并不否定全要素生产率的作用,而是缺乏节能意识的负面影响抵消并逆转了全要素生产率的正面作用.     

Stability of rarefaction wave for a macroscopic model derived from the Vlasov-Maxwell-Boltzmann system

In this article, we are concerned with the nonlinear stability of the rarefaction wave for a one-dimensional macroscopic model derived from the Vlasov-Maxwell-Boltzmann system. The result shows that the large-time behavior of the solutions coincides with the one for both the Navier-Stokes-Poisson system and the Navier-Stokes system. Both the time-decay property of the rarefaction wave profile and the influence of the electromagnetic field play a key role in the analysis.     

ANN技术在企业经济预测与预警中的应用研究

提出了适合于上市公司而建立的基于ANN技术的企业经济综合指标短期预警系统的构建方案.该系统是一个人机相结合的反馈式预警系统,包括危机判定、财务指标预测、预警知识获取和报警四个子系统.该系统将定性分析与定量分析结合起来,既突出人的作用,又充分发挥了人工神经网络的在预测方面的技术,使得两者有机的结合在一起.其中,预警指标预测子系统体现了ANN技术在时间序列预测方面的应用,而知识获取子系统和报警子系统则体现了ANN技术在回归预测方面的应用,两者都有很好的理论基础.同时,该系统建立的程序比较规范,具有普适性,易于操作,比较容易实现.最后,还对该系统进行了实证模拟分析,并与专家意见结果进行了对比,验证了其有效性.     

基于变参数模型的中国能源消费经济增长关系研究

本文利用1953—2002年的统计数据和状态空间模型对中国能源消费与经济增长关系进行了研究。我们的结论是:(1)中国能源消费与经济增长之间存在一种随时间不断变化的长期均衡关系即变参数协整关系;(2)基于状态空间模型的变参数估计很好地揭示了中国能源消费弹性的时变规律。     

The well-posedness of bipolar semiconductor hydrodynamic model with recombination-generation rate on the bounded interval

ABSTRACT

We study the initial boundary value problem of bipolar semiconductor hydrodynamic model with recombination-generation rate for the non-constant doping profile. The new feature is that the current distribution for electrons and holes is not constant. In order to overcome this difficulty, the existence and uniqueness of a subsonic stationary solution are first established by elliptic theorem. Then, for such an Euler–Poisson system, we prove, by means of a technical energy method, that the subsonic solutions are unique, exist globally and asymptotically converge to the corresponding stationary solutions. An exponential decay rate is also derived.     

A mathematical model for the first-pass dynamics of antibiotics acting on the cardiovascular system

We present a preliminary first-pass dynamic model for delivery of drug compounds to the lungs and heart. We use a compartmental mass-balance approach to develop a system of nonlinear differential equations for mass accumulated in the heart as a result of intravenous injection. We discuss sensitivity analysis as well as methodology for minimizing mass in the heart while maximizing mass delivered to the lungs on a first circulatory pass.     

基于冷负荷需求的空调节能控制模型

针对商场中央空调的节能控制问题,首先建立了基于空调运行模式、经验值的冷负荷计算模型,给出了4种计算方法,并得出了人体冷负荷和照明电气设备冷负荷值的范围;然后对人流量分布进行合理假设,得出了商场冷负荷的函数表达式,讨论了冷负荷的误差范围,并用最小二乘方法对表达式进行了修正;再根据冷负荷的表达式建立了基于能量需求的空调节能模型,得出了制冷机组的控制策略,并给出了节能效果;最后计算出了基准冷负荷的值以及当商场温度升高1度基准冷负荷的减少比例.     

The circle as an attractor of an iterated function system on the plane

We give an iterated function system (IFS) on the plane with the circle as attractor. In doing this, we also give a sufficient condition for radially contracting functions on the plane (or on Rn) to be a contraction. A counterexample shows that radial contractiveness is not enough to be a contraction.     

R0-代数中一种混合运算的性质及L*系统的完备性

研究了王国俊教授建立的模糊命题演算的形式演绎系统L*及与之在语义上相关的R0-代数,讨论了R0-代数中混合运算():a()b= (a→()b)的性质,并以此为工具利用Petr Hajek证明Lukasiewicz模糊命题演算系统关于语义ΩL完备性的方法证明了L*系统关于语义ΩW的完备性.     

A model evaluating effect of disaster warning issuance conditions on “cry wolf syndrome” in the case of a landslide

This study proposes a model that clarifies how disaster warning issuance conditions affect “cry wolf” syndrome. The disaster assumed in this study is landslide caused by heavy rainfall. Local authorities that issue disaster warnings are thought to tend to avoid the situation where casualty occurs without the issuance to residents of a disaster warning. As a result, the issuance conditions may be relaxed. Under this circumstance, however, the residents are thought to tend to ignore disaster warnings, since such warnings are inaccurate. Thus may emerge the “cry wolf” syndrome. In this study, a simulation model that expresses the behaviors of the local authority and the residents has been developed. For the purpose of demonstrating the model, numerical experiments were then carried out. In the numerical experiments, the effects of optimal issuance conditions for disaster warnings on the cost incurred by the resident were evaluated by using assumed parameters for the model.     

The effect of boundary conditions on the mesoscopic lattice Boltzmann method: Case study of a reaction-diffusion based model for Min-protein oscillation

Min-protein oscillation in Escherichia coli has an essential role in controlling the accurate placement of the cell division septum at the middle-cell zone of the bacteria. This biochemical process has been successfully described by a set of reaction-diffusion equations at the macroscopic level. The lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) has been used to simulate Min-protein oscillation and proved to recover the correct macroscopic equations. In this present work, we studied the effects of LBM boundary conditions (BC) on Min-protein oscillation. The impact of diffusion and reaction dynamics on BCs was also investigated. It was found that the mirror-image BC is a suitable boundary treatment for this Min-protein model. The physical significance of the results is extensively discussed.     

失业型贫困群体的创业意向-行为转化研究——应用半参数Cox风险模型的触发效应分析

研究应用事件史分析方法跟踪失业型贫困群体创业意向到创业行为转化的过程,解释是什么因素影响着这一独特群体创业行为的触发.在研究中,构建了包含情景因素的"意向一行为"解释框架,估计"意向一行为"的转化时间,将转化的时间间隔作为创业状态转换事件的"生存时间",应用事件史分析中的半参数Cox风险模型,考察外驱力和内驱力因素对这种时间间隔的触发效用差异.研究结果表明,"意向一行为"的转化时间在地区和性别之间的差异显著,并受到体制工作经验背景、创业培训、创业行为态度的多重影响.基于以上研究结论,针对缩短创业意向转化时间、维持创业者创业热情、鼓励女性创业等提出政策建议.