A general approach to Bayesian portfolio optimization

We develop a general approach to portfolio optimization taking account of estimation risk and stylized facts of empirical finance. This is done within a Bayesian framework. The approximation of the posterior distribution of the unknown model parameters is based on a parallel tempering algorithm. The portfolio optimization is done using the first two moments of the predictive discrete asset return distribution. For illustration purposes we apply our method to empirical stock market data where daily asset log-returns are assumed to follow an orthogonal MGARCH process with t-distributed perturbations. Our results are compared with other portfolios suggested by popular optimization strategies.     

Elasticity approach to portfolio optimization

We study investment problems in a continuous-time setting and conclude that the proper control variables are elasticities to the traded assets or, in the case of stochastic interest rates, (factor) durations. This formulation of a portfolio problem allows us to solve the problems in a kind of two-step procedure: First, by calculating the optimal elasticities and durations we determine the optimal wealth process and then we compute a portfolio process which tracks these elasticities and durations. Our findings are not only interesting in itself, but the approach also proves useful in many varied applications including portfolios with (path-dependent) options. An important application can be the solution of portfolio problems with defaultable bonds modelled by a firm value approach.     

A fuzzy goal programming approach to portfolio selection

Portfolio selection is a usual multiobjective problem. This paper will try to deal with the optimum portfolio for a private investor, taking into account three criteria: return, risk and liquidity. These objectives, in general, are not crisp from the point of view of the investor, so we will deal with them in fuzzy terms. The problem formulation is a goal programming (G.P.) one, where the goals and the constraints are fuzzy. We will apply a fuzzy G.P. approach to the above problem to obtain a solution. Then, we will offer the investor help in handling the results.     

Particle swarm optimization approach to portfolio optimization

The survey of the relevant literature showed that there have been many studies for portfolio optimization problem and that the number of studies which have investigated the optimum portfolio using heuristic techniques is quite high. But almost none of these studies deals with particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach. This study presents a heuristic approach to portfolio optimization problem using PSO technique. The test data set is the weekly prices from March 1992 to September 1997 from the following indices: Hang Seng in Hong Kong, DAX 100 in Germany, FTSE 100 in UK, S&P 100 in USA and Nikkei in Japan. This study uses the cardinality constrained mean-variance model. Thus, the portfolio optimization model is a mixed quadratic and integer programming problem for which efficient algorithms do not exist. The results of this study are compared with those of the genetic algorithms, simulated annealing and tabu search approaches. The purpose of this paper is to apply PSO technique to the portfolio optimization problem. The results show that particle swarm optimization approach is successful in portfolio optimization.     

A moment matching approach to log-normal portfolio optimization

We consider the problem where a manager aims to minimize the probability of his portfolio return falling below a threshold while keeping the expected return no worse than a target, under the assumption that stock returns are Log-Normally distributed. This assumption, common in the finance literature for daily and weekly returns, creates computational difficulties because the distribution of the portfolio return is difficult to estimate precisely. We approximate it with a single Log-Normal random variable using the Fenton–Wilkinson method and investigate an iterative, data-driven approximation to the problem. We propose a two-stage solution approach, where the first stage requires solving a classic mean-variance optimization model and the second step involves solving an unconstrained nonlinear problem with a smooth objective function. We suggest an iterative calibration method to improve the accuracy of the method and test its performance against a Generalized Pareto Distribution approximation. We also extend our results to the design of basket options.     

A stochastic programming approach to multicriteria portfolio optimization

We study a stochastic programming approach to multicriteria multi-period portfolio optimization problem. We use a Single Index Model to estimate the returns of stocks from a market-representative index and a random walk model to generate scenarios on the possible values of the index return. We consider expected return, Conditional Value at Risk and liquidity as our criteria. With stocks from Istanbul Stock Exchange, we make computational studies for the two and three-criteria cases. We demonstrate the tradeoffs between criteria and show that treating these criteria simultaneously yields meaningful efficient solutions. We provide insights based on our experiments.     

A global optimization problem in portfolio selection

This paper deals with the issue of buy-in thresholds in portfolio optimization using the Markowitz approach. Optimal values of invested fractions calculated using, for instance, the classical minimum-risk problem can be unsatisfactory in practice because they lead to unrealistically small holdings of certain assets. Hence we may want to impose a discrete restriction on each invested fraction y _i such as y _i >  y _min or y _i =  0. We shall describe an approach which uses a combination of local and global optimization to determine satisfactory solutions. The approach could also be applied to other discrete conditions—for instance when assets can only be purchased in units of a certain size (roundlots).     

Convex optimization approaches to maximally predictable portfolio selection

In this article we propose a simple heuristic algorithm for approaching the maximally predictable portfolio, which is constructed so that return model of the resulting portfolio would attain the largest goodness-of-fit. It is obtained by solving a fractional program in which a ratio of two convex quadratic functions is maximized, and the number of variables associated with its nonconcavity has been a bottleneck in spite of continuing endeavour for its global optimization. The proposed algorithm can be implemented by simply solving a series of convex quadratic programs, and computational results show that it yields within a few seconds a (near) Karush–Kuhn–Tucker solution to each of the instances which were solved via a global optimization method in [H. Konno, Y. Takaya and R. Yamamoto, A maximal predictability portfolio using dynamic factor selection strategy, Int. J. Theor. Appl. Fin. 13 (2010) pp. 355–366]. In order to confirm the solution accuracy, we also pose a semidefinite programming relaxation approach, which succeeds in ensuring a near global optimality of the proposed approach. Our findings through computational experiments encourage us not to employ the global optimization approach, but to employ the local search algorithm for solving the fractional program of much larger size.     

A variational approach to polynomial optimization of feedback control

By using the calculus of variations, Ahlén & Sternadhave shown how polynomial optimization may be formulated withoutcompleting the squares as suggested by Kuera. This somewhatsimpler formulation is illustrated here by applying it in bothdiscrete and continuous time to the optimization of a multivariableerror-actuated control system which is required to track stochasticreference signals while subject to stochastic plant disturbanceand white measurement noise. * Presented at the IMA International Conference on Control,Modelling, and Computation, UMIST, Manchester, 2–4 September1992.     

A fuzzy approach to R&D project portfolio selection

A major advance in the development of project selection tools came with the application of options reasoning in the field of Research and Development (R&D). The options approach to project evaluation seeks to correct the deficiencies of traditional methods of valuation through the recognition that managerial flexibility can bring significant value to projects. Our main concern is how to deal with non-statistical imprecision we encounter when judging or estimating future cash flows. In this paper, we develop a methodology for valuing options on R&D projects, when future cash flows are estimated by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In particular, we present a fuzzy mixed integer programming model for the R&D optimal portfolio selection problem, and discuss how our methodology can be used to build decision support tools for optimal R&D project selection in a corporate environment.     

A unified approach to portfolio optimization with linear transaction costs

In this paper we study the continuous time optimal portfolio selection problem for an investor with a finite horizon who maximizes expected utility of terminal wealth and faces transaction costs in the capital market. It is well known that, depending on a particular structure of transaction costs, such a problem is formulated and solved within either stochastic singular control or stochastic impulse control framework. In this paper we propose a unified framework, which generalizes the contemporary approaches and is capable to deal with any problem where transaction costs are a linear/piecewise-linear function of the volume of trade. We also discuss some methods for solving numerically the problem within our unified framework.     

A stochastic programming approach for multi-period portfolio optimization

This paper extends previous work on the use of stochastic linear programming to solve life-cycle investment problems. We combine the feature of asset return predictability with practically relevant constraints arising in a life-cycle investment context. The objective is to maximize the expected utility of consumption over the lifetime and of bequest at the time of death of the investor. Asset returns and state variables follow a first-order vector auto-regression and the associated uncertainty is described by discrete scenario trees. To deal with the long time intervals involved in life-cycle problems we consider a few short-term decisions (to exploit any short-term return predictability), and incorporate a closed-form solution for the long, subsequent steady-state period to account for end effects.     

A network-based data mining approach to portfolio selection via weighted clique relaxations

We introduce a new network-based data mining approach to selecting diversified portfolios by modeling the stock market as a network and utilizing combinatorial optimization techniques to find maximum-weight s-plexes in the obtained networks. The considered approach is based on the weighted market graph model, which is used for identifying clusters of stocks according to a correlation-based criterion. The proposed techniques provide a new framework for selecting profitable diversified portfolios, which is verified by computational experiments on historical data over the past decade. In addition, the proposed approach can be used as a complementary tool for narrowing down a set of “candidate” stocks for a diversified portfolio, which can potentially be analyzed using other known portfolio selection techniques.     

Viability of infeasible portfolio selection problems: A fuzzy approach

This paper deals with fuzzy optimization schemes for managing a portfolio in the framework of risk–return trade-off. Different models coexist to select the best portfolio according to their respective objective functions and many of them are linearly constrained. We are concerned with the infeasible instances of such models. This infeasibility, usually provoked by the conflict between the desired return and the diversification requirements proposed by the investor, can be satisfactorily avoided by using fuzzy linear programming techniques. We propose an algorithm to repair infeasibility and we illustrate its performance on a numerical example.     

Fuzzy portfolio optimization a quadratic programming approach

The topic of this paper is as, the title shows, to introduce the formulation of fuzzy portfolio optimization problem as a convex quadratic programming approach and then give an acceptable solution to such problem. A numerical example included in the support of this paper for illustration.     

Consumption and portfolio selection with labor income: A discrete-time approach

This paper studies the consumption and portfolio selection problem of an agent who is liquidity constrained and has uninsurable income risk in a discrete time setting. It gives properties of optimal policies and presents numerical solutions. The paper, in particular, shows that liquidity constraints and uninsurable income risk reduce consumption and investment in the risky asset substantially from the levels for the case where no market imperfections exist. This paper also shows how the agent evaluates his or her human capital and relates the evaluation to optimal decisions.     

Monte Carlo methods for mean-risk optimization and portfolio selection

Stochastic programming is a well-known instrument to model many risk management problems in finance. In this paper we consider a stochastic programming model where the objective function is the variance of a random function and the constraint function is the expected value of the random function. Instead of using popular scenario tree methods, we apply the well-known sample average approximation (SAA) method to solve it. An advantage of SAA is that it can be implemented without knowing the distribution of the random data. We investigate the asymptotic properties of statistical estimators obtained from the SAA problem including examining the rate of convergence of optimal solutions of the SAA problem as sample size increases. By using the classical penalty function technique and recent results on uniform exponential convergence of sample average random functions, we show that under some mild conditions the statistical estimator of the optimal solution converges to its true counterpart at an exponential rate. We apply the proposed model and the numerical method to a portfolio management problem and present some numerical results.     

Global optimization of higher order moments in portfolio selection

We discuss the global optimization of the higher order moments of a portfolio of financial assets. The proposed model is an extension of the celebrated mean variance model of Markowitz. Asset returns typically exhibit excess kurtosis and are often skewed. Moreover investors would prefer positive skewness and try to reduce kurtosis of their portfolio returns. Therefore the mean variance model (assuming either normally distributed returns or quadratic utility functions) might be too simplifying. The inclusion of higher order moments has therefore been proposed as a possible augmentation of the classical model in order to make it more widely applicable. The resulting problem is non-convex, large scale, and highly relevant in financial optimization. We discuss the solution of the model using two stochastic algorithms. The first algorithm is Differential Evolution (DE). DE is a population based metaheuristic originally designed for continuous optimization problems. New solutions are generated by combining up to four existing solutions plus noise, and acceptance is based on evolutionary principles. The second algorithm is based on the asymptotic behavior of a suitably defined Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE). The SDE consists of three terms. The first term tries to reduce the value of the objective function, the second enforces feasibility of the iterates, while the third adds noise in order to enable the trajectory to climb hills.