“网民知多少?”——中国互联网络信息中心全国调查抽样方案设计

互联网时代 ,国家和相关企业掌握互联网使用的动态变化情况是非常重要的。本设计采用了多阶段、分层、PPS与等概率相结合的混合抽样方法 ,考虑了时间和经费的限制 ,克服了缺少完整抽样框等困难 ,使抽样的科学性和可操作性得到了较好的结合 ,为中国互联网络信息中心的全国居民上网情况调查提供了切实可行的抽样方案     

山东省城镇劳动就业与社会保障抽样调查方案设计

为了解城镇劳动就业与社会保障有关情况,山东省劳动和社会保障厅拟在全省城镇开展抽样调查。本文提出分层三阶段PPS随机抽样设计,给出确定各阶段样本量的原则和方法,构造了按与人口规模成比例的概率的抽样方法及与之相匹配的估计量,讨论了估计量方差的估计。     

Tukey两步同时置信区间

利用两阶段抽样,构造出Tukey两步同时置信区间,它同时满足预先给定的可靠度和精度的要求.且利用数值计算的方法给出了第一阶段最优抽样量.     

一类雨量预报准确性评价方法

给出了一种利用网格点的预报雨量来模拟区域内任一点预报雨量的方法,建立了预报雨量函数,进而得出预报雨量与实测雨量的整体偏方差的数学模型;利用QPF方法建立出准确率、预报效率、空报率、漏报率等评价预报方法优劣指标的数学模型,并对两种预报方法得出的数据进行了计算,得出上述模型中的数值如下:方案方法总体偏方差预报准确率漏报率空报率预报效率方法1 0.99987×10679.431%11.463%25.621%62.256%方法2 1.00518×10657.509%26.976%31.705%58.936%比较这些指标,可得第一种预报结果较好.     

基于熵权法的DEA/AR交叉效率知识化制造模式评价

用模糊DEA/AR交叉效率方法,解决制造模式的评价与排序问题.首先,构建了四种不同的DEA/AR交叉效率模型—任意型、对抗型、友好型和博弈型.然后,应用熵权法确定每一种交叉效率模型的最终交叉效率值,目的是用保证域来避免传统模型的权重偏差,从而实现了决策单元的相对有效评价和精确排序.同时,引入奇异指数的概念来衡量最终交叉效率的合理性及可靠性.最后,通过实例验证本文模型和方法的可行性及有效性:与采用简单DEA效率模型进行评价比较,我们的方法会使得效率更加精准、排序更加合理.     

抽样调查基础理论体系研究综述与应用

针对抽样调查中抽样设计、估计量设计及方差估计等方面存在的关键理论性问题,运用数理统计方法,从抽样调查的两个主要环节,即抽样设计和抽样估计环节进行基础理论的综述研究,以S(a|¨)rndal et al.(1992)等成果中研究的抽样设计、示性变量、包含概率、π估计量等核心概念为基础,并引入超总体模型这一研究工具进行模型辅助估计,最终归纳整理出一套现代抽样调查的基础理论体系,为后续更好地开展抽样调查基础理论和应用研究奠定方法论基础。这套基础理论体系具有开阔性、统一性和易于推广性等一系列优势,对于抽样调查从设计到估计的全过程起着基础性作用。     

“8”字带头的非平方妙乘法

“8”字带头的非平方乘算较麻烦,因为数字大、位数多、进位多、操作程序多、较费工、费劲,但难中有易,抓住“8”字的特点、规律和别的数字的关系,就可以化繁为简,由难变易,今归纳几种妙乘方法如下: (一)两数列均为“8”字带头 两数列均为“8”字带头,其妙乘法有四。     

基于辅助信息的分层排序集抽样及调查费用分析

辅助信息在改进和完善抽样设计、提高抽样估计精度和节省抽样费用等方面具有重要作用,鉴于此,基于分层排序集样本建立了总体均值的比率估计量,同时考虑估计精度和调查费用两个方面,证明了抽样方案的优良性.最后,通过实例进一步分析,结果表明,在给定的估计精度下,分层排序集抽样方法可以有效降低抽样调查费用.     

基于辅助信息的分层排序集抽样及调查费用分析北大核心

辅助信息在改进和完善抽样设计、提高抽样估计精度和节省抽样费用等方面具有重要作用,鉴于此,基于分层排序集样本建立了总体均值的比率估计量,同时考虑估计精度和调查费用两个方面,证明了抽样方案的优良性.最后,通过实例进一步分析,结果表明,在给定的估计精度下,分层排序集抽样方法可以有效降低抽样调查费用.     

区域高技术产业技术创新效率测度与提升路径研究——基于共享投入关联型两阶段DEA模型

将高技术产业创新过程划分为技术研发和经济转化两个阶段,考虑初始创新投入在两阶段分配、非研发投入及新产品开发费用等因素对创新产出的影响,构建共享投入关联型两阶段DEA模型,并测度了2013~2015创新年度中国大陆30个省份的高技术产业技术创新整体效率与两阶段效率。结果表明:大多数区域高技术产业初始创新投入对研发产出和经济产出均有影响;高技术产业技术创新整体效率与两阶段效率都较低,且各区域创新效率水平差异较大;技术研发效率水平高于整体效率水平,而经济转化效率水平低于整体效率水平。最后,依据高技术产业技术创新两阶段效率及其在整体效率中的权重对各区域进行重分类,有针对性地提出了单边突破式、双向协调式等多条技术创新效率提升路径。     

为PPS抽样而进行双重抽样的方法

本文把双重抽样技术用于ＰＰＳ抽样，给出了该方法下总体总值的无偏估计量，估计量的方差及方差的无偏估计公式。     

Algorithms to Find Exact Inclusion Probabilities for Conditional Poisson Sampling and Pareto πps Sampling Designs

Conditional Poisson Sampling Design as developed by Haje´k may be defined as a Poisson sampling conditioned by the requirement that the sample has fixed size. In this paper, an algorithm is implemented to calculate the conditional inclusion probabilities given the inclusion probabilities under Poisson Sampling. A simple algorithm is also given for second order inclusion probabilities in Conditional Poisson Sampling. Furthermore a numerical method is introduced to compute the unconditional inclusion probabilities when the conditional inclusion probabilities are predetermined. Simultaneously, we study the Pareto ps sampling design. This method, introduced by Rose´n, belongs to a class of sampling schemes called Order Sampling with Fixed Distribution Shape. Methods are provided to compute the first and second order inclusion probabilities numerically also in this case, as well as two procedures to adjust the parameters to get predetermined inclusion probabilities.     

PPS抽样──一种有效的水路运输量抽样方法

本文针对水运运输特点，通过对实际资料的分析和计算，对水运运输量的抽样方法作分析比较，提出利用ＰＰＳ抽样进行我国水路运输量的抽样抽查。     

The design and data processing of the Sampling Survey of Children's situation in China, 1987

In July of 1987, the Sampling Survey of Children's Situation was conducted in 9 provinces/autonomous regions of China. A stratified two-stage cluster sampling plan was designed for the survey. The paper presents the methods of stratification, selectingn=2 PSU's (cities/counties) with unequal probabilities without replacement in each stratum and selecting residents/village committees in each sampled city/county. All formulae of estimating population characteristics (especially population totals and the ratios of two totals), and estimating variances of those estimators are given. Finally, we analyse the precision of the survey preliminarily from the results of data processing.Supported partially by the National Funds of Natural Sciences, 7860013.     

Automated rejection sampling from product of distributions

Summary  Sampling from probability density functions (pdfs) has become more and more important in many areas of applied science, and has therefore been the subject of great attention. Many sampling procedures proposed allow for approximate or asymptotic sampling. On the other hand, very few methods allow for exact sampling. Direct sampling of standard pdfs is feasible, but sampling of much more complicated pdfs is often required. Rejection sampling allows to exactly sample from univariate pdfs, but has the huge drawback of needing a case-by-case calculation of a comparison function that often reveals as a tremendous chore, whose results dramatically affect the efficiency of the sampling procedure. In this paper, we restrict ourselves to a pdf that is proportional to a product of standard distributions. From there, we show that an automated selection of both the comparison function and the upper bound is possible. Moreover, this choice is performed in order to optimize the sampling efficiency among a range of potential solutions. Finally, the method is illustrated on a few examples.     

事后分层方法及其在交通运输抽样调查中的应用

本文介绍事后分层技术，说明了它不仅可用于简单随机抽样，而且可以用于放回ＰＰＳ抽样。给出了事后分层估计量的形式，证明了它的无编性，并给出了它在交通运输抽样调查中的应用。     

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??How to solve the inference problem of candidate database web surveys is an urgent problem to be solved in the development of web survey. In order to solve this problem, the inference method of non-probability sampling based on superpopulation pseudo design and the combined sample is proposed. A superpopulation model is firstly built up to construct pseudo weights for a survey sample of the web candidate database. The estimator of the population mean is then computed according to the combined sample composed of the survey sample of the web candidate database and a probability sample. The variance estimator of the population mean estimator is lastly derived according to the variance estimation theory of the superpopulation model. The Bootstrap and Jackknife methods are also used to compute the variance estimator. And all these variance estimation methods are compared. The research results show that the population mean estimator based on superpopulation pseudo design and the combined sample is better, and has higher efficiency than the estimator only using the probability sample and the weighted estimator only using the survey sample of the web candidate database. The variance estimator computed by using the VM1, VM2 and VM3 method are relatively better.     

序贯抽样在计算机辅助电话调查中的应用

样本量的确定是抽样设计中的关键问题,传统方法利用总体方差和调查费用的有关信息来确定样本量可能产生两种结果,一种是样本量过低,无法保证希望的估计精度要求;一种是样本量过高,导致调查经费的浪费。计算机辅助电话调查中即时的数据运算和管理功能为序贯抽样的应用奠定了基础。利用前期抽取样本的计算结果,可以规定进一步需抽取的样本量,最终样本量是对真正期望样本量的一个最佳近似,它比传统方法更能保证以最少的费用满足预先设定的精度要求。     

Research on Inference of Candidate Database Web Surveys Based on Superpopulation Pseudo Design and the Combined Sample

How to solve the inference problem of candidate database web surveys is an urgent problem to be solved in the development of web survey. In order to solve this problem, the inference method of non-probability sampling based on superpopulation pseudo design and the combined sample is proposed. A superpopulation model is firstly built up to construct pseudo weights for a survey sample of the web candidate database. The estimator of the population mean is then computed according to the combined sample composed of the survey sample of the web candidate database and a probability sample. The variance estimator of the population mean estimator is lastly derived according to the variance estimation theory of the superpopulation model. The Bootstrap and Jackknife methods are also used to compute the variance estimator. And all these variance estimation methods are compared. The research results show that the population mean estimator based on superpopulation pseudo design and the combined sample is better, and has higher efficiency than the estimator only using the probability sample and the weighted estimator only using the survey sample of the web candidate database. The variance estimator computed by using the VM1, VM2 and VM3 method are relatively better.