Maximum likelihood estimation in the context of a sub-ballistic random walk in a parametric random environment

We consider a one-dimensional sub-ballistic random walk evolving in a parametric i.i.d. random environment. We study the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the parameter based on a single observation of the path till the time it reaches a distant site. For that purpose, we adapt the method developed in the ballistic case by Comets et al. (2014) and Falconnet et al. (2014). Using a supplementary assumption due to the special nature of the sub-ballistic regime, we prove consistency and asymptotic normality as the distant site tends to infinity. To emphasize the role of the additional assumption, we investigate the Temkin model with unknown support, and it turns out that the MLE is consistent but, unlike the ballistic regime, the Fisher information is infinite. We also explore the numerical performance of our estimation procedure.     

Local likelihood estimation for nonstationary random fields

We develop a weighted local likelihood estimate for the parameters that govern the local spatial dependency of a locally stationary random field. The advantage of this local likelihood estimate is that it smoothly downweights the influence of faraway observations, works for irregular sampling locations, and when designed appropriately, can trade bias and variance for reducing estimation error. This paper starts with an exposition of our technique on the problem of estimating an unknown positive function when multiplied by a stationary random field. This example gives concrete evidence of the benefits of our local likelihood as compared to unweighted local likelihoods. We then discuss the difficult problem of estimating a bandwidth parameter that controls the amount of influence from distant observations. Finally we present a simulation experiment for estimating the local smoothness of a local Matérn random field when observing the field at random sampling locations in [0,1]². The local Matérn is a fully nonstationary random field, has a closed form covariance, can attain any degree of differentiability or Hölder smoothness and behaves locally like a stationary Matérn. We include an appendix that proves the positive definiteness of this covariance function.     

Asymptotic normality and efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimator for the parameter of a ballistic random walk in a random environment

We consider a one-dimensional ballistic random walk evolving in a parametric independent and identically distributed random environment. We study the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameter based on a single observation of the path till the time it reaches a distant site. We prove asymptotic normality for this consistent estimator as the distant site tends to infinity and establish that it achieves the Cramér-Rao bound. We also explore in a simulation setting the numerical behavior of asymptotic confidence regions for the parameter value.     

Properties of nonparametric estimators of autocovariance for stationary random fields

Summary We introduce nonparametric estimators of the autocovariance of a stationary random field. One of our estimators has the property that it is itself an autocovatiance. This feature enables the estimator to be used as the basis of simulation studies such as those which are necessary when constructing bootstrap confidence intervals for unknown parameters. Unlike estimators proposed recently by other authors, our own do not require assumptions such as isotropy or monotonicity. Indeed, like nonparametric function estimators considered more widely in the context of curve estimation, our approach demands only smoothness and tail conditions on the underlying curve or surface (here, the autocovariance), and moment and mixing conditions on the random field. We show that by imposing the condition that the estimator be a covariance function we actually reduce the numerical value of integrated squared error.     

Neighborhood radius estimation for variable-neighborhood random fields

We consider random fields defined by finite-region conditional probabilities depending on a neighborhood of the region which changes with the boundary conditions. To predict the symbols within any finite region, it is necessary to inspect a random number of neighborhood symbols which might change according to the value of them. In analogy with the one-dimensional setting we call these neighborhood symbols the context associated to the region at hand. This framework is a natural extension, to d-dimensional fields, of the notion of variable length Markov chains introduced by Rissanen [24] in his classical paper. We define an algorithm to estimate the radius of the smallest ball containing the context based on a realization of the field. We prove the consistency of this estimator. Our proofs are constructive and yield explicit upper bounds for the probability of wrong estimation of the radius of the context.     

Marginal permutation invariant covariance matrices with applications to linear models

The goal of the present paper is to perform a comprehensive study of the covariance structures in balanced linear models containing random factors which are invariant with respect to marginal permutations of the random factors. We shall focus on model formulation and interpretation rather than the estimation of parameters. It is proven that permutation invariance implies a specific structure for the covariance matrices. Useful results are obtained for the spectra of permutation invariant covariance matrices. In particular, the reparameterization of random effects, i.e., imposing certain constraints, will be considered. There are many possibilities to choose reparameterization constraints in a linear model, however not every reparameterization keeps permutation invariance. The question is if there are natural restrictions on the random effects in a given model, i.e., such reparameterizations which are defined by the covariance structure of the corresponding factor. Examining relationships between the reparameterization conditions applied to the random factors of the models and the spectrum of the corresponding covariance matrices when permutation invariance is assumed, restrictions on the spectrum of the covariance matrix are obtained which lead to “sum-to-zero” reparameterization of the corresponding factor.     

On the mode-change problem for random measures

The classical change-point problem in modern terms, i.e., the mode-change problem, is stated for sufficiently general set-indexed random processes, namely for random measures. A method is shown for solving this problem both in the general form and for the intensity of compound Poisson random measures. The results obtained are novel for the change-point problem, too.     

A class of models for uncorrelated random variables

We consider the class of multivariate distributions that gives the distribution of the sum of uncorrelated random variables by the product of their marginal distributions. This class is defined by a representation of the assumption of sub-independence, formulated previously in terms of the characteristic function and convolution, as a weaker assumption than independence for derivation of the distribution of the sum of random variables. The new representation is in terms of stochastic equivalence and the class of distributions is referred to as the summable uncorrelated marginals (SUM) distributions. The SUM distributions can be used as models for the joint distribution of uncorrelated random variables, irrespective of the strength of dependence between them. We provide a method for the construction of bivariate SUM distributions through linking any pair of identical symmetric probability density functions. We also give a formula for measuring the strength of dependence of the SUM models. A final result shows that under the condition of positive or negative orthant dependence, the SUM property implies independence.     

Optimizing random scan Gibbs samplers

The Gibbs sampler is a popular Markov chain Monte Carlo routine for generating random variates from distributions otherwise difficult to sample. A number of implementations are available for running a Gibbs sampler varying in the order through which the full conditional distributions used by the Gibbs sampler are cycled or visited. A common, and in fact the original, implementation is the random scan strategy, whereby the full conditional distributions are updated in a randomly selected order each iteration. In this paper, we introduce a random scan Gibbs sampler which adaptively updates the selection probabilities or “learns” from all previous random variates generated during the Gibbs sampling. In the process, we outline a number of variations on the random scan Gibbs sampler which allows the practitioner many choices for setting the selection probabilities and prove convergence of the induced (Markov) chain to the stationary distribution of interest. Though we emphasize flexibility in user choice and specification of these random scan algorithms, we present a minimax random scan which determines the selection probabilities through decision theoretic considerations on the precision of estimators of interest. We illustrate and apply the results presented by using the adaptive random scan Gibbs sampler developed to sample from multivariate Gaussian target distributions, to automate samplers for posterior simulation under Dirichlet process mixture models, and to fit mixtures of distributions.     

Selecting mixed-effects models based on a generalized information criterion

The generalized information criterion (GIC) proposed by Rao and Wu [A strongly consistent procedure for model selection in a regression problem, Biometrika 76 (1989) 369-374] is a generalization of Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). In this paper, we extend the GIC to select linear mixed-effects models that are widely applied in analyzing longitudinal data. The procedure for selecting fixed effects and random effects based on the extended GIC is provided. The asymptotic behavior of the extended GIC method for selecting fixed effects is studied. We prove that, under mild conditions, the selection procedure is asymptotically loss efficient regardless of the existence of a true model and consistent if a true model exists. A simulation study is carried out to empirically evaluate the performance of the extended GIC procedure. The results from the simulation show that if the signal-to-noise ratio is moderate or high, the percentages of choosing the correct fixed effects by the GIC procedure are close to one for finite samples, while the procedure performs relatively poorly when it is used to select random effects.     

Dimension estimation in sufficient dimension reduction: A unifying approach

Sufficient Dimension Reduction (SDR) in regression comprises the estimation of the dimension of the smallest (central) dimension reduction subspace and its basis elements. For SDR methods based on a kernel matrix, such as SIR and SAVE, the dimension estimation is equivalent to the estimation of the rank of a random matrix which is the sample based estimate of the kernel. A test for the rank of a random matrix amounts to testing how many of its eigen or singular values are equal to zero. We propose two tests based on the smallest eigen or singular values of the estimated matrix: an asymptotic weighted chi-square test and a Wald-type asymptotic chi-square test. We also provide an asymptotic chi-square test for assessing whether elements of the left singular vectors of the random matrix are zero. These methods together constitute a unified approach for all SDR methods based on a kernel matrix that covers estimation of the central subspace and its dimension, as well as assessment of variable contribution to the lower-dimensional predictor projections with variable selection, a special case. A small power simulation study shows that the proposed and existing tests, specific to each SDR method, perform similarly with respect to power and achievement of the nominal level. Also, the importance of the choice of the number of slices as a tuning parameter is further exhibited.     

Probability density estimation for survival data with censoring indicators missing at random

In this paper, some nonparametric approaches of density function estimation are developed when censoring indicators are missing at random. A conditional mean score based estimator and a mean score estimator are suggested, respectively. The two estimators are proved to be asymptotically normal and uniformly strongly consistent. The bandwidth selection problem is also discussed. A simulation study is conducted to compare finite-sample behaviors of the proposed estimators.     

Bayesian reference analysis for Gaussian Markov random fields

Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRF) are important families of distributions for the modeling of spatial data and have been extensively used in different areas of spatial statistics such as disease mapping, image analysis and remote sensing. GMRFs have been used for the modeling of spatial data, both as models for the sampling distribution of the observed data and as models for the prior of latent processes/random effects; we consider mainly the former use of GMRFs. We study a large class of GMRF models that includes several models previously proposed in the literature. An objective Bayesian analysis is presented for the parameters of the above class of GMRFs, where explicit expressions for the Jeffreys (two versions) and reference priors are derived, and for each of these priors results on posterior propriety of the model parameters are established. We describe a simple MCMC algorithm for sampling from the posterior distribution of the model parameters, and study frequentist properties of the Bayesian inferences resulting from the use of these automatic priors. Finally, we illustrate the use of the proposed GMRF model and reference prior for studying the spatial variability of lip cancer cases in the districts of Scotland over the period 1975-1980.     

Prediction of Euclidean distances with discrete and continuous outcomes

The objective of this paper is first to predict generalized Euclidean distances in the context of discrete and quantitative variables and then to derive their statistical properties. We first consider the simultaneous modelling of discrete and continuous random variables with covariates and obtain the likelihood. We derive an important property useful for its practical maximization. We then study the prediction of any Euclidean distances and its statistical proprieties, especially for the Mahalanobis distance. The quality of distance estimation is analyzed through simulations. This results are applied to our motivating example: the official distinction procedure of rapeseed varieties.     

Estimation of a linear functional and extrapolation of a random field

We consider minimax estimation of a linear functional of a homogeneous random field. A linear optimal estimator of the functional is derived and the field achieving the minimax error of the functional estimate is determined.Translated from Vychislitel'naya i Prikladnaya Matematika, No. 59, pp. 105–113, 1986.     

A transformed random effects model with applications

This paper proposes a transformed random effects model for analyzing non-normal panel data where both the response and (some of) the covariates are subject to transformations for inducing flexible functional form, normality, homoscedasticity, and simple model structure. We develop a maximum likelihood procedure for model estimation and inference, along with a computational device which makes the estimation procedure feasible in cases of large panels. We provide model specification tests that take into account the fact that parameter values for error components cannot be negative. We illustrate the model and methods with two applications: state production and wage distribution. The empirical results strongly favor the new model to the standard ones where either linear or log-linear functional form is employed. Monte Carlo simulation shows that maximum likelihood inference is quite robust against mild departure from normality. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the asymptotic normality of estimating the affine preferential attachment network models with random initial degrees

We consider the estimation of the affine parameter and power-law exponent in the preferential attachment model with random initial degrees. We derive the likelihood, and show that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is asymptotically normal and efficient. We also propose a quasi-maximum-likelihood estimator (QMLE) to overcome the MLE’s dependence on the history of the initial degrees. To demonstrate the power of our idea, we present numerical simulations.     

Non parametric estimation for random walks in random environment

We investigate the problem of estimating the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) $F$ of a distribution $\nu$ from the observation of one trajectory of the random walk in i.i.d. random environment with distribution $\nu$ on $\mathbb{Z}$. We first estimate the moments of $\nu$, then combine these moment estimators to obtain a collection of estimators ${\left({\stackrel{?}{F}}_n^M\right)}_{M\ge 1}$ of $F$, our final estimator is chosen among this collection by Goldenshluger–Lepski’s method. This estimator is easily computable. We derive convergence rates for this estimator depending on the Hölder regularity of $F$ and on the divergence rate of the walk. Our rate is minimal when the chain realizes a trade-off between a fast exploration of the sites, allowing to get more information and a larger number of visits of each site, allowing a better recovery of the environment itself.     

On testing equality of pairwise rank correlations in a multivariate random vector

Spearman’s rank-correlation coefficient (also called Spearman’s rho) represents one of the best-known measures to quantify the degree of dependence between two random variables. As a copula-based dependence measure, it is invariant with respect to the distribution’s univariate marginal distribution functions. In this paper, we consider statistical tests for the hypothesis that all pairwise Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients in a multivariate random vector are equal. The tests are nonparametric and their asymptotic distributions are derived based on the asymptotic behavior of the empirical copula process. Only weak assumptions on the distribution function, such as continuity of the marginal distributions and continuous partial differentiability of the copula, are required for obtaining the results. A nonparametric bootstrap method is suggested for either estimating unknown parameters of the test statistics or for determining the associated critical values. We present a simulation study in order to investigate the power of the proposed tests. The results are compared to a classical parametric test for equal pairwise Pearson’s correlation coefficients in a multivariate random vector. The general setting also allows the derivation of a test for stochastic independence based on Spearman’s rho.     

Minimax estimation with random coefficients: Theory and application to stock returns

Testing the reliability of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) for various stock market returns is an important task in capital market research. In all previous studies, a common feature consists in the application of ordinary least squares or Bayesian methods when it comes to estimation of parameters. The Bayesian approach seems to be fairly intractable by practitioners whereas the OLS approach often yields imprecise and thus doubtful results. In this paper, the CAPM is estimated by approximate minimax techniques extended to a random coefficient regression model (RCR). The method turns out to be efficient from both the economical and computational point of view.