Adaptive estimation for stochastic damping Hamiltonian systems under partial observation

The paper considers a process $Z_t=(X_t,Y_t)$ where $X_t$ is the position of a particle and $Y_t$ its velocity, driven by a hypoelliptic bi-dimensional stochastic differential equation. Under adequate conditions, the process is stationary and geometrically $\beta$-mixing. In this context, we propose an adaptive non-parametric kernel estimator of the stationary density $p$ of $Z$, based on $n$ discrete time observations with time step $\delta$. Two observation schemes are considered: in the first one, $Z$ is the observed process, in the second one, only $X$ is measured. Estimators are proposed in both settings and upper risk bounds of the mean integrated squared error (MISE) are proved and discussed in each case, the second one being more difficult than the first one. We propose a data driven bandwidth selection procedure based on the Goldenshluger and Lespki (2011) method. In both cases of complete and partial observations, we can prove a bound on the MISE asserting the adaptivity of the estimator. In practice, we take advantage of a very recent improvement of the Goldenshluger and Lespki (2011) method provided by Lacour et al. (2016), which is computationally efficient and easy to calibrate. We obtain convincing simulation results in both observation contexts.     

Error expansion for the discretization of backward stochastic differential equations

We study the error induced by the time discretization of decoupled forward–backward stochastic differential equations (X,Y,Z)$(X,Y,Z)$. The forward component X$X$ is the solution of a Brownian stochastic differential equation and is approximated by a Euler scheme X^N$X^N$ with N$N$ time steps. The backward component is approximated by a backward scheme. Firstly, we prove that the errors (Y^N−Y,Z^N−Z)$(Y^N-Y,Z^N-Z)$ measured in the strong _Lp$L_p$-sense (p≥1$p\ge 1$) are of order N^−1/2$N^{-1/2}$ (this generalizes the results by Zhang [J. Zhang, A numerical scheme for BSDEs, The Annals of Applied Probability 14 (1) (2004) 459–488]). Secondly, an error expansion is derived: surprisingly, the first term is proportional to X^N−X$X^N-X$ while residual terms are of order N⁻¹$N^{-1}$.     

Central limit theorems for multiple stochastic integrals and Malliavin calculus

We give a new characterization for the convergence in distribution to a standard normal law of a sequence of multiple stochastic integrals of a fixed order with variance one, in terms of the Malliavin derivatives of the sequence. We also give a new proof of the main theorem in [D. Nualart, G. Peccati, Central limit theorems for sequences of multiple stochastic integrals, Ann. Probab. 33 (2005) 177–193] using techniques of Malliavin calculus. Finally, we extend our result to the multidimensional case and prove a weak convergence result for a sequence of square integrable random vectors, giving an application.     

Change point estimators by local polynomial fits under a dependence assumption

We study a random design regression model generated by dependent observations, when the regression function itself (or its ν-th derivative) may have a change or discontinuity point. A method based on the local polynomial fits with one-sided kernels to estimate the location and the jump size of the change point is applied in this paper. When the jump location is known, a central limit theorem for the estimator of the jump size is established; when the jump location is unknown, we first obtain a functional limit theorem for a local dilated-rescaled version estimator of the jump size and then give the asymptotic distributions for the estimators of the location and the jump size of the change point. The asymptotic results obtained in this paper can be viewed as extensions of corresponding results for independent observations. Furthermore, a simulated example is given to show that our theory and method perform well in practice.     

Continuity of the occupation density for anticipating stochastic integral processes

In this paper we prove the existence of a continuous local time for an anticipating process which is composed of an indefinite Skorohod integral and an absolutely continuous term.The work of P. Imkeller was done during his visit to the CRM of Barcelona.Partially supported by the DGICYT grant number PB90-0452.     

Uniform central limit theorems for kernel density estimators

Let be the classical kernel density estimator based on a kernel K and n independent random vectors X _i each distributed according to an absolutely continuous law on . It is shown that the processes , , converge in law in the Banach space , for many interesting classes of functions or sets, some -Donsker, some just -pregaussian. The conditions allow for the classical bandwidths h _n that simultaneously ensure optimal rates of convergence of the kernel density estimator in mean integrated squared error, thus showing that, subject to some natural conditions, kernel density estimators are ‘plug-in’ estimators in the sense of Bickel and Ritov (Ann Statist 31:1033–1053, 2003). Some new results on the uniform central limit theorem for smoothed empirical processes, needed in the proofs, are also included.      

Forward and reverse representations for Markov chains

In this paper we carry over the concept of reverse probabilistic representations developed in Milstein, Schoenmakers, Spokoiny [G.N. Milstein, J.G.M. Schoenmakers, V. Spokoiny, Transition density estimation for stochastic differential equations via forward–reverse representations, Bernoulli 10 (2) (2004) 281–312] for diffusion processes, to discrete time Markov chains. We outline the construction of reverse chains in several situations and apply this to processes which are connected with jump–diffusion models and finite state Markov chains. By combining forward and reverse representations we then construct transition density estimators for chains which have root-N$N$ accuracy in any dimension and consider some applications.     

Estimation of a multivariate stochastic volatility density by kernel deconvolution

We consider a continuous time stochastic volatility model. The model contains a stationary volatility process. We aim to estimate the multivariate density of the finite-dimensional distributions of this process. We assume that we observe the process at discrete equidistant instants of time. The distance between two consecutive sampling times is assumed to tend to zero.A multivariate Fourier-type deconvolution kernel density estimator based on the logarithm of the squared processes is proposed to estimate the multivariate volatility density. An expansion of the bias and a bound on the variance are derived.     

A bivariate Lévy process with negative binomial and gamma marginals

The joint distribution of X and N, where N has a geometric distribution and X is the sum of N IID exponential variables (independent of N), is infinitely divisible. This leads to a bivariate Lévy process {(X(t),N(t)),t≥0}, whose coordinates are correlated negative binomial and gamma processes. We derive basic properties of this process, including its covariance structure, representations, and stochastic self-similarity. We examine the joint distribution of (X(t),N(t)) at a fixed time t, along with the marginal and conditional distributions, joint integral transforms, moments, infinite divisibility, and stability with respect to random summation. We also discuss maximum likelihood estimation and simulation for this model.     

Strong consistency properties of nonparametric estimators for randomly censored data,II: Estimation of density and failure rate

This article is Part II of a two-part study. Properties of the product-limit estimator established in the previous part [2] are now used to prove the strong consistency of some nonparametric density and failure rate estimators which can be used with randomly censored data.The third author's research was partly supported by the National Research Council of Canada.     

Law of large numbers and central limit theorem for Donsker's delta function of diffusions I

Limit theorems in the space of Hida distributions, similar to the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem, are shown for composites of the Dirac distribution with solutions of one-dimensional, non-degenerate Itô equations.Supported by National Science Foundation under grant DMS-9001859.Supported by the Louisiana Education Quality Support Fund under grant (91–93) RD-A-08.Supported by the Council on Research of Louisiana State University.     

On the false discovery proportion convergence under Gaussian equi-correlation

We study the convergence of the false discovery proportion (FDP) of the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure in the Gaussian equi-correlated model, when the correlation ρ_m converges to zero as the hypothesis number m grows to infinity. In this model, the FDP converges to the false discovery rate (FDR) at rate {min(m,1/ρ_m)}^1/2, which is different from the standard convergence rate m^1/2 holding under independence.     

Large deviations for lattice systems I. Parametrized independent fields

Summary We prove large deviation theorems for empirical measures of independent random fields whose distributions depend measurably on an auxiliary parameter. This dependence respects the action of the shift group, and a large deviation principle holds whenever a certain ergodicity condition is satisfied. We also investigate the entropy functions for these processes, especially in relation to the usual relative entropy.     

On quadratic functionals of the Brownian sheet and related processes

Motivated by asymptotic problems in the theory of empirical processes, and specifically by tests of independence, we study the law of quadratic functionals of the (weighted) Brownian sheet and of the bivariate Brownian bridge on [0,1]²$[0,1{]}^2$. In particular: (i) we use Fubini-type techniques to establish identities in law with quadratic functionals of other Gaussian processes, (ii) we explicitly calculate the Laplace transform of such functionals by means of Karhunen–Loève expansions, (iii) we prove central and non-central limit theorems in the spirit of Peccati and Yor [Four limit theorems involving quadratic functionals of Brownian motion and Brownian bridge, Asymptotic Methods in Stochastics, American Mathematical Society, Fields Institute Communication Series, 2004, pp. 75–87] and Nualart and Peccati [Central limit theorems for sequences of multiple stochastic integrals, Ann. Probab. 33(1) (2005) 177–193]. Our results extend some classical computations due to Lévy [Wiener's random function and other Laplacian random functions, in: Second Berkeley Symposium in Probability and Statistics, 1950, pp. 171–186], as well as the formulae recently obtained by Deheuvels and Martynov [Karhunen–Loève expansions for weighted Wiener processes and Brownian bridges via Bessel functions, Progress in Probability, vol. 55, Birkhäuser Verlag, Basel, 2003, pp. 57–93].     

A central limit theorem for stationary random fields

This paper establishes a central limit theorem and an invariance principle for a wide class of stationary random fields under natural and easily verifiable conditions. More precisely, we deal with random fields of the form _Xk=g(_εk−s,s∈Z^d)$X_k=g({\epsilon }_{k-s},s\in {\mathbb{Z}}^d)$, k∈Z^d$k\in {\mathbb{Z}}^d$, where _(εi)i∈Zd${\left({\epsilon }_i\right)}_{i\in {\mathbb{Z}}^d}$ are iid random variables and g$g$ is a measurable function. Such kind of spatial processes provides a general framework for stationary ergodic random fields. Under a short-range dependence condition, we show that the central limit theorem holds without any assumption on the underlying domain on which the process is observed. A limit theorem for the sample auto-covariance function is also established.