Optimal lot disposition from Poisson–Lindley count data

Optimal sampling plans based on overdispersed defect counts for screening lots of outgoing and incoming goods are derived by minimizing the required sample size. Best inspection schemes provide appropriate protections to customers and manufacturers. The stochastic distribution of the number of defects per sampled unit is described by Poisson–Lindley models. Optimal frequentist and Bayesian decision rules for lot disposition are found by solving mixed integer nonlinear programming problems through simulation. The suggested criteria are based on likelihood and posterior odds ratios. The asymptotic normality of the quality score statistic is used to deduce explicit and reasonably accurate approximations of the optimal acceptance sampling plans. The Bayesian approach allows the practitioners to reduce the needed sample size for sentencing lots of high-quality products. For illustrative purposes, the proposed methods are applied to the manufacturing of copper wire.     

Estimation and Design of Sampling Plans for Monitoring Dependent Production Processes

We consider the problem of designing single and the double sampling plans for monitoring dependent production processes. Based on simulated samples from the process, Nelson proposed a new approach of estimating the characteristics of single sampling plans and, using these estimates, designing optimal plans. In this paper, we extend his approach to the design of optimal double sampling plans. We first propose a simple methodology for obtaining the unbiased estimators of various characteristics of single and double sampling plans. This is achieved by defining the various characteristics of sampling plans as explicit random variables. Some of the important properties of the double sampling plans are established. Using these results, an efficient algorithm is developed to obtain optimal double sampling plans. A comparison with a crude search shows that our algorithm leads to about 90% savings, on the average, in computational timings. The procedure is also explained through a suitable example for the ARMA(1,1) model. It is observed, for instance, that an optimal double sampling plan leads to about 23% reduction in average sample number, compared to an optimal single sampling plan. Tables for choosing the optimal plans for certain auto regressive moving average processes at some practically useful values of acceptable quality level and rejectable quality level are also presented.     

A combined attributes–variables plan

The design of single sampling plans in which the lot acceptance decision is based on both variables and attribute measurement of quality is discussed. A new plan, called the combined attributes–variables plan, is proposed incorporating an acceptance number to the regular variables plan for consumer protection. A design approach for the new plan is also developed for food manufacturing applications in which the sample size cannot be predetermined because of short production lengths and other analytical testing issues. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variables sampling inspection scheme for resubmitted lots based on the process capability index Cpk

This paper attempts to develop a sampling inspection scheme by variables based on process performance index for product acceptance determination, which examines the situation where resampling is permitted on lots not accepted on original inspection. The equations for plan parameters, the required sample size and the corresponding critical value, are derived based on the exact sampling distribution rather than an approximation approach hence the decisions made are more accurate and reliable. Moreover, the efficiency of the proposed variables resubmitted sampling plan is evaluated and compared with the existing variables single sampling plan. For illustrative purpose, an example is presented to demonstrate the use of the derived results for making a decision on product acceptance determination.     

An optimization method to estimate models with store-level data: A case study

The quality of the estimation of a latent segment model when only store-level aggregate data is available seems to be dependent on the computational methods selected and in particular on the optimization methodology used to obtain it. Following the stream of work that emphasizes the estimation of a segmentation structure with aggregate data, this work proposes an optimization method, among the deterministic optimization methods, that can provide estimates for segment characteristics as well as size, brand/product preferences and sensitivity to price and price promotion variation estimates that can be accommodated in dynamic models. It is shown that, among the gradient based optimization methods that were tested, the Sequential Quadratic Programming method (SQP) is the only that, for all scenarios tested for this type of problem, guarantees of reliability, precision and efficiency being robust, i.e., always able to deliver a solution. Therefore, the latent segment models can be estimated using the SQP method when only aggregate market data is available.     

Optimal truncated repetitive lot inspection with defect rates

Single and repetitive sampling schemes are conventional methods for evaluating the quality of lots or batches of products. Truncation repetitive sampling plans are introduced in this paper in order to significantly reduce the size of samples drawn from the lot. Under this scheme type, if a decision about the acceptance or rejection of the lots cannot be made in the original inspection, they can be reinspected, at most, a prefixed number of times. The Poisson distribution is assumed for the number of defects found in the samples drawn from the lot. Best truncated repetitive sampling plans are determined by solving integer nonlinear programming problems. A simplified methodology is suggested to obtain the plans with optimal inspection effort and controlled risks by using an iterative procedure. According to the results obtained, optimal truncated plans are shown to be better than the optimal single and repetitive schemes in reducing the average sample number of the inspection. An application to the manufacturing of glass is presented for illustrative purposes.     

Reference Bayesian analysis of inverse Gaussian degradation process

In this paper, objective Bayesian method is applied to analyze degradation model based on the inverse Gaussian process. Noninformative priors (Jefferys prior and two reference priors) for model parameters are obtained and their properties are discussed. Moreover, we propose a class of modified reference priors to remedy weaknesses of the usual reference priors and show that the modified reference priors not only have proper posterior distributions but also have probability matching properties for model parameters. Gibbs sampling algorithms for Bayesian inference based on the Jefferys prior and the modified reference priors are studied. Simulations are conducted to compare the objective Bayesian estimates with the maximum likelihood estimates and subjective Bayesian estimates and shows better performance of the objective method than the other two estimates especially for the case of small sample size. Finally, two real data examples are analyzed for illustration.     

基于ARMA模型的自相关过程能力分析与评价

传统的过程能力分析基于观测值彼此独立的假设,但是实际生活中的数据常呈现相关的状态。本文对一般的自相关模型进行过程能力分析,从理论和模拟两个角度研究了自相关对传统过程能力分析的影响。提出基于ARMA模型的过程能力分析方法,模拟和数值分析的结果表明对于相关过程而言,该方法较传统方法相比有很大的改进。     

An innovative Bayesian sequential censored sampling inspection method and application to test design

This paper proposes an innovative Bayesian sequential censored sampling inspection method to improve the inspection level and reduce the sample size in acceptance test plans for continuous lots. A mathematical model of Bayesian sequential censored sampling is built, where a new inspection parameter is created and two types of risk are modified. As the core of Bayesian risk formulas, a new structure method of the prior distribution is presented by combining the empirical distribution with the uncertainty of the estimation. To improve the fitting accuracy of parameter estimation, an adaptive genetic algorithm is applied and compared with different parameter estimation methods. In the prior distribution, a prior estimator is introduced to design a sampling plan for continuous lots. Then, three types of producer's and consumer's risks are derived and compared. The simulation results indicate that the modified Bayesian sampling method performs well, with the lowest risks and the smallest sample size. Finally, a new sequential censored sampling plan for continuous lots is designed for the accuracy acceptance test of an aircraft. The test results show that compared with the traditional single sampling plan, the sample size is reduced by 66.7%, saving a vast amount of test costs.     

An efficient inspection scheme for variables based on Taguchi capability index

Acceptance sampling has been one of practical tools for quality assurance applications, which provide a general rule to the producer and the consumer for product acceptance determination. It has been shown that variables sampling plans requires less sampling compared with attributes sampling plans. Thus, variables sampling plans become more attractive and desirable especially when the required quality level is very high or the allowable fraction non-conforming is very small. This paper attempts to develop an efficient and economic sampling scheme, variables repetitive group sampling plan, by incorporating the concept of Taguchi loss function. The OC curve of the proposed plan is derived based on the exact sampling distribution and the plan parameters are determined by minimizing the average sample number with two constraints specified by the producer and the consumer. The efficiency of the proposed variables RGS is examined and also compared with the existing variables single sampling plan in terms of the sample size required for inspection. In addition, tables of the plan parameters for various combinations of entry parameters are provided and an example is presented for illustration.     

A variables sampling plan based on Cpmk for product acceptance determination

Process capability indices are useful management tools, particularly in the manufacturing industry, which provide common quantitative measures on manufacturing capability and production quality. Most supplier certification manuals include a discussion of process capability analysis and describe the recommended procedure for computing a process capability index. Acceptance sampling plans have been one of the most practical tools used in classical quality control applications. It provides both vendors and buyers to reserve their own rights by compromising on a rule to judge a batch of products. Both sides may set their own safeguard line to protect their benefits. Two kinds of risks are balanced using a well-designed sampling plan. In this paper, we introduce a new variables sampling plan based on process capability index C_pmk to deal with product sentencing (acceptance determination). The proposed new sampling plan is developed based on the exact sampling distribution hence the decisions made are more accurate and reliable. For practical purpose, tables for the required sample sizes and the corresponding critical acceptance values for various producer’s risk, the consumer’s risk and the capability requirements acceptance quality level (AQL), and the lot tolerance percent defective (LTPD) are provided. A case study is also presented to illustrate how the proposed procedure can be constructed and applied to the real applications.     

Bootstrapping to solve the limited data problem in production control: an application in batch process industries

Batch process industries are characterized by complex precedence relationships among operations, which makes the estimation of an acceptable workload very difficult. Previous research indicated that a regression-based model that uses aggregate job set characteristics may be used to support order acceptance decisions. Applications of such models in real-life assume that sufficient historical data on job sets and the corresponding makespans are available. In practice, however, historical data maybe very limited and may not be sufficient to produce accurate regression estimates. This paper shows that such a lack of data significantly impacts the performance of regression-based order acceptance procedures. To resolve this problem, we devised a method that uses the bootstrap principle. A simulation study shows that performance improvements are obtained when using the parameters estimated from the bootstrapped data set, demonstrating that this bootstrapping procedure can indeed solve the limited data problem in production control.     

Variables sampling plans with PPM fraction of defectives and process loss consideration

Acceptance sampling plans provide the vendor and the buyer decision rules for lot sentencing to meet their product quality needs. A problem the quality practitioners have to deal with is the determination of the critical acceptance values and inspection sample sizes that provide the desired levels of protection to both vendors and buyers. As today's modern quality improvement philosophy, reduction of variation from the target value is the guiding principle as well as reducing the fraction of defectives. The C_pm index adopts the concept of product loss, which distinguishes the product quality by setting increased penalty to products deviating from the target. In this paper, a variables sampling plan based on C_pm index is proposed to handle processes requiring very low parts per million (PPM) fraction of defectives with process loss consideration. We develop an effective method for obtaining the required sample sizes n and the critical acceptance value C₀ by solving simultaneously two nonlinear equations. Based on the designed sampling plan, the practitioners can determine the number of production items to be sampled for inspection and the corresponding critical acceptance value for lot sentencing.     

Interval censored sampling plans for the gamma lifetime model

In this article, an acceptance sampling procedure for the gamma lifetime model is established under the interval censored test. Both producer and consumer risks are considered to develop the ordinary and approximate sampling plans with grouped data. Some of the proposed sampling plans are tabulated and the use of the tables is illustrated by an example. A sensitivity study is conducted to evaluate the influence of the length of the time interval on the proposed sampling plans.     

Design of progressively censored group sampling plans for Weibull distributions: An optimization problem

Optimization algorithms provides efficient solutions to many statistical problems. Essentially, the design of sampling plans for lot acceptance purposes is an optimization problem with several constraints, usually related to the quality levels required by the producer and the consumer. An optimal acceptance sampling plan is developed in this paper for the Weibull distribution with unknown scale parameter. The proposed plan combines grouping of items, sudden death testing in each group and progressive group removals, and its decision criterion is based on the uniformly most powerful life test. A mixed integer programming problem is first solved for determining the minimum number of failures required and the corresponding acceptance constant. The optimal number of groups is then obtained by minimizing a balanced estimation of the expected test cost. Excellent approximately optimal solutions are also provided in closed-forms. The sampling plan is considerably flexible and allows to save experimental time and cost. In general, our methodology achieves solutions that are quite robust to small variations in the Weibull shape parameter. A numerical example about a manufacturing process of gyroscopes is included for illustration.     

Capability-based quick switching sampling system for lot disposition

Various acceptance sampling schemes have been developed for quality control and assurance. In this research, two types of variables quick switching sampling (VQSS) system based on the process capability index C_pk are proposed. The VQSS is composed of two single sampling plans, one is under a normal inspection and the other is under a tightened inspection. Requirements for accepting a lot under the tightened inspection are more stringent than under the normal inspection. The concept of the VQSS system is that the sampling mechanism can adjust flexibly based on the quality history of the preceding submitted lots. A minimization model is constructed to solve the plan parameters for each type of the VQSS system under different mixes of quality levels and risk endurance levels, and several tables are prepared for references. In addition, the performance of the two types of VQSS system are compared with the single sampling plan through the operating characteristic (OC) curve and the average sample number (ASN) required for inspection. Finally, a real example from a dielectric layer coating machine is presented to show the practicality of the proposed system.     

Semiparametric empirical likelihood estimation for two-stage outcome-dependent sampling under the frame of generalized linear models

Epidemiologic studies use outcome-dependent sampling （ODS） schemes where, in addition to a simple random sample, there are also a number of supplement samples that are collected based on outcome variable. ODS scheme is a cost-effective way to improve study efficiency. We develop a maximum semiparametric empirical likelihood estimation （MSELE） for data from a two-stage ODS scheme under the assumption that given covariate, the outcome follows a general linear model. The information of both validation samples and nonvalidation samples are used. What is more, we prove the asymptotic properties of the proposed MSELE.     

A Unified Approach for Modeling and Designing Attribute Sampling Plans for Monitoring Dependent Production Processes

In this paper, we consider a probabilistic model to represent some general dependent production processes and present a unified approach for designing attribute sampling plans for monitoring the ongoing production process. This model includes the classical iid model, independent model, Markov-dependent model and previous-sum dependent model, to mention a few. Some important properties of this model are established. We derive the recurrence relations for the probability distribution of the sum of n consecutive characteristics observed from the process. Using these recurrence relations, we present efficient algorithms for designing optimal single and double sampling plans for attributes, for monitoring the ongoing production process. Our algorithmic approach, which uses effectively the recurrence relations, yields a direct and an exact method, unlike many approximate methods adopted in the literature. Several interesting examples concerning specific models are discussed and a few tables for some special cases are also presented. It is demonstrated that the optimal double sampling plans lead to about 42% reduction in average sample number over the single sampling plans for process monitoring. AMS 2000 Subject Classifications: Primary 62P30; Secondary 62E15, 65C60     

Multiple dependent state sampling plans for lot acceptance based on measurement data

This paper proposes a multiple dependent (or deferred) state sampling plan by variables for the inspection of normally distributed quality characteristics. The decision upon the acceptance of the lot is based on the states of the preceding lots (dependent state plan) or on the states of the forthcoming lots (deferred state plan). The lot acceptance probability is derived and the two-point approach to determining the plan parameters is described. The advantages of this new variables plan over conventional sampling plans are discussed. Tables are constructed for the selection of parameters of this plan under the specific values of the producer’s and consumer’s risks, indexed by acceptable quality level and limiting quality level, when the standard deviation is known or unknown.     

Asymptotic distribution of residual autocorrelations from estimation of ARMA processes by Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization

One computationally efficient procedure for obtaining maximum likelihood parameter estimates for an ARMA process is based on the Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization of the space generated by the finite series of observations. This paper shows that the asymptotic distribution of the autocorrelations of the resulting residuals coincides with that for least-square residuals.