A central limit theorem for martingales and an application to branching processes

A functional central limit theorem is obtained for martingales which are not uniformly asymptotically negligible but grow at a geometric rate. The function space is not the usual C[0,1] or D[0,1] but R^N, the space of all real sequences and the metric used leads to a non-separable metric space.The main theorem is applied to a martingale obtained from a supercritical Galton-Watson branching process and as simple corollaries the already known central limit theorems for the Harris and Lotka-Nagaev estimators of the mean of the offspring distribution, are obtained.     

A central limit theorem for stationary random fields

This paper establishes a central limit theorem and an invariance principle for a wide class of stationary random fields under natural and easily verifiable conditions. More precisely, we deal with random fields of the form _Xk=g(_εk−s,s∈Z^d)$X_k=g({\epsilon }_{k-s},s\in {\mathbb{Z}}^d)$, k∈Z^d$k\in {\mathbb{Z}}^d$, where _(εi)i∈Zd${\left({\epsilon }_i\right)}_{i\in {\mathbb{Z}}^d}$ are iid random variables and g$g$ is a measurable function. Such kind of spatial processes provides a general framework for stationary ergodic random fields. Under a short-range dependence condition, we show that the central limit theorem holds without any assumption on the underlying domain on which the process is observed. A limit theorem for the sample auto-covariance function is also established.     

Almost sure central limit theorems on the Wiener space

In this paper, we study almost sure central limit theorems for sequences of functionals of general Gaussian fields. We apply our result to non-linear functions of stationary Gaussian sequences. We obtain almost sure central limit theorems for these non-linear functions when they converge in law to a normal distribution.     

Limit theorems for stochastic measures of the accuracy of density estimators

Stochastic measures of the distance between a density f and its estimate f_n have been used to compare the accuracy of density estimators in Monte Carlo trials. The practice in the past has been to select a measure largely on the basis of its ease of computation, using only heuristic arguments to explain the large sample behaviour of the measure. Steele [11] has shown that these arguments can lead to incorrect conclusions. In the present paper we obtain limit theorems for the stochastic processes derived from stochastic measures, thereby explaining the large sample behaviour of the measures.     

Nonparametric estimation of the location and scale parameters based on density estimation

Summary By representing the location and scale parameters of an absolutely continuous distribution as functionals of the usually unknown probability density function, it is possible to provide estimates of these parameters in terms of estimates of the unknown functionals. Using the properties of well-known methods of density estimates, it is shown that the proposed estimates possess nice large sample properties and it is indicated that they are also robust against dependence in the sample. The estimates perform well against other estimates of location and scale parameters.     

The central limit theorem for sums of trimmed variables with heavy tails

Trimming is a standard method to decrease the effect of large sample elements in statistical procedures, used, e.g., for constructing robust estimators and tests. Trimming also provides a profound insight into the partial sum behavior of i.i.d. sequences. There is a wide and nearly complete asymptotic theory of trimming, with one remarkable gap: no satisfactory criteria for the central limit theorem for modulus trimmed sums have been found, except for symmetric random variables. In this paper we investigate this problem in the case when the variables are in the domain of attraction of a stable law. Our results show that for modulus trimmed sums the validity of the central limit theorem depends sensitively on the behavior of the tail ratio P(X>t)/P(|X|>t) of the underlying variable X as t→∞ and paradoxically, increasing the number of trimmed elements does not generally improve partial sum behavior.     

Strong consistency properties of nonparametric estimators for randomly censored data,II: Estimation of density and failure rate

This article is Part II of a two-part study. Properties of the product-limit estimator established in the previous part [2] are now used to prove the strong consistency of some nonparametric density and failure rate estimators which can be used with randomly censored data.The third author's research was partly supported by the National Research Council of Canada.     

Functional limit theorems for generalized quadratic variations of Gaussian processes

In this paper, we establish functional convergence theorems for second order quadratic variations of Gaussian processes which admit a singularity function. First, we prove a functional almost sure convergence theorem, and a functional central limit theorem, for the process of second order quadratic variations, and we illustrate these results with the example of the fractional Brownian sheet (FBS). Second, we do the same study for the process of localized second order quadratic variations, and we apply the results to the multifractional Brownian motion (MBM).     

Strong laws for density estimators of bernstein type

Starting from the classical theorem of Weierstrass (and its modifications) on approximation of continuous functions by means of Bernstein polynomials a smoothed histogram type estimator is developed for estimating probability densities and its derivatives. Consistency results are obtained in form of various strong laws. In particular, one gets estimates for the rates for pointwise and uniform strong convergence of estimators for the derivatives. Moreover, for approximating the density itself the exact order of consistency is established. This is done by a law of iterated logarithm for pointwise approximation and by a law of logarithm in case of uniform approximation.This paper contains parts of the author's Habilitationsschrift written at the Department of Mathematics of the University of Ulm.     

Change point estimators by local polynomial fits under a dependence assumption

We study a random design regression model generated by dependent observations, when the regression function itself (or its ν-th derivative) may have a change or discontinuity point. A method based on the local polynomial fits with one-sided kernels to estimate the location and the jump size of the change point is applied in this paper. When the jump location is known, a central limit theorem for the estimator of the jump size is established; when the jump location is unknown, we first obtain a functional limit theorem for a local dilated-rescaled version estimator of the jump size and then give the asymptotic distributions for the estimators of the location and the jump size of the change point. The asymptotic results obtained in this paper can be viewed as extensions of corresponding results for independent observations. Furthermore, a simulated example is given to show that our theory and method perform well in practice.     

On estimation of a density and its derivatives

Summary Letf _n ^(p) be a recursive kernel estimate off ^(p) thepth order derivative of the probability density functionf, based on a random sample of sizen. In this paper, we provide bounds for the moments of and show that the rate of almost sure convergence of to zero isO(n ^−α), α<(r−p)/(2r+1), iff ^(r),r>p≧0, is a continuousL ₂(−∞, ∞) function. Similar rate-factor is also obtained for the almost sure convergence of to zero under different conditions onf. This work was supported in part by the Research Foundation of SUNY.     

Strong consistency of density estimation by orthogonal series methods for dependent variables with applications

Among several widely use methods of nonparametric density estimation is the technique of orthogonal series advocated by several authors. For such estimate when the observations are assumed to have been taken from strong mixing sequence in the sense of Rosenblatt [7] we study strong consistency by developing probability inequality for bounded strongly mixing random variables. The results obtained are then applied to two estimates of the functional Δ(f)=∫f ² (x)dx were strong consistency is established. One of the suggested two estimates of Δ(f) was recently studied by Schuler and Wolff [8] in the case of independent and identically distributed observations where they established consistency in the second mean of the estimate. Research supported in part by the National Research Council of Canada and in part by McMaster University Research Board. Now at Memphis State University, Memphis, Tennessee 38152, U.S.A.     

Central limit theorems for multiple stochastic integrals and Malliavin calculus

We give a new characterization for the convergence in distribution to a standard normal law of a sequence of multiple stochastic integrals of a fixed order with variance one, in terms of the Malliavin derivatives of the sequence. We also give a new proof of the main theorem in [D. Nualart, G. Peccati, Central limit theorems for sequences of multiple stochastic integrals, Ann. Probab. 33 (2005) 177–193] using techniques of Malliavin calculus. Finally, we extend our result to the multidimensional case and prove a weak convergence result for a sequence of square integrable random vectors, giving an application.     

Some central limit theorems for ℓ∞-valued semimartingales and their applications

Summary. This paper is devoted to the generalization of central limit theorems for empirical processes to several types of ℓ^∞(Ψ)-valued continuous-time stochastic processes t⇝X _t ⁿ =(X _t ^{n ,ψ}|ψ∈Ψ), where Ψ is a non-empty set. We deal with three kinds of situations as follows. Each coordinate process t⇝X _t ^{n ,ψ} is: (i) a general semimartingale; (ii) a stochastic integral of a predictable function with respect to an integer-valued random measure; (iii) a continuous local martingale. Some applications to statistical inference problems are also presented. We prove the functional asymptotic normality of generalized Nelson-Aalen's estimator in the multiplicative intensity model for marked point processes. Its asymptotic efficiency in the sense of convolution theorem is also shown. The asymptotic behavior of log-likelihood ratio random fields of certain continuous semimartingales is derived. Received: 6 May 1996 / In revised form: 4 February 1997     

Some limit theorems for Hawkes processes and application to financial statistics

In the context of statistics for random processes, we prove a law of large numbers and a functional central limit theorem for multivariate Hawkes processes observed over a time interval [0,T]$[0,T]$ when T→∞$T\to \infty$. We further exhibit the asymptotic behaviour of the covariation of the increments of the components of a multivariate Hawkes process, when the observations are imposed by a discrete scheme with mesh Δ$\Delta$ over [0,T]$[0,T]$ up to some further time shift τ$\tau$. The behaviour of this functional depends on the relative size of Δ$\Delta$ and τ$\tau$ with respect to T$T$ and enables to give a full account of the second-order structure. As an application, we develop our results in the context of financial statistics. We introduced in Bacry et al. (2013) [7] a microscopic stochastic model for the variations of a multivariate financial asset, based on Hawkes processes and that is confined to live on a tick grid. We derive and characterise the exact macroscopic diffusion limit of this model and show in particular its ability to reproduce the important empirical stylised fact such as the Epps effect and the lead–lag effect. Moreover, our approach enables to track these effects across scales in rigorous mathematical terms.     

Strong consistency properties of nonparametric estimators for randomly censored data,I: The product-limit estimator

In reliability and survival-time studies one frequently encounters the followingrandom censorship model:X ₁,Y ₁,X ₂,Y ₂, is an independent sequence of nonnegative rv's, theX _n' s having common distributionF and theY _n' s having common distributionG, Z _n =min{X _n ,Y _n },T _n =I[X _n <-Y _n ]; ifX _n represents the (potential) time to death of then-th individual in the sample andY _n is his (potential) censoring time thenZ _n represents the actual observation time andT _n represents the type of observation (T _n =O is a censoring,T _n =1 is a death). One way to estimateF from the observationsZ ₁.T ₁,Z ₂,T ₂, (and without recourse to theX _n' s) is by means of theproduct limit estimator (Kaplan andMeier [6]). It is shown that a.s., uniformly on [0,T] ifH(T ^–)<1 wherel–H=(l–F) (l–G), uniformly onR if whereT _F =sup {x:F(x)<1}; rates of convergence are also established. These results are used in Part II of this study to establish strong consistency of some density and failure rate estimators based on .The third author's research was partly supported by National Research Council of Canada     

Normal limit theorems for symmetric random matrices

Using the machinery of zonal polynomials, we examine the limiting behavior of random symmetric matrices invariant under conjugation by orthogonal matrices as the dimension tends to infinity. In particular, we give sufficient conditions for the distribution of a fixed submatrix to tend to a normal distribution. We also consider the problem of when the sequence of partial sums of the diagonal elements tends to a Brownian motion. Using these results, we show that if O _n is a uniform random n×n orthogonal matrix, then for any fixed k>0, the sequence of partial sums of the diagonal of O ^k _n tends to a Brownian motion as n→∞. Received: 3 February 1998 / Revised version: 11 June 1998     

Central limit theorem for integrated square error of multivariate nonparametric density estimators

Martingale theory is used to obtain a central limit theorem for degenerate U-statistics with variable kernels, which is applied to derive central limit theorems for the integrated square error of multivariate nonparametric density estimators. Previous approaches to this problem have employed Komlós-Major-Tusnády type approximations to the empiric distribution function, and have required the following two restrictive assumptions which are not necessary using the present approach: (i) the data are in one or two dimensions, and (ii) the estimator is constructed suboptimally.