Robust autoregressive estimates using quadratic programming

The robust estimation of the autoregressive parameters is formulated in terms of the quadratic programming problem. This article's main contribution is to present an estimator that down weights both types of outliers in time series and improves the forecasting results. New robust estimates are yielded, by combining optimally two weight functions suitable for Innovation and Additive outliers in time series. The technique which is developed here is based on an approach of mathematical programming applications to I_p-approximation. The behavior of the estimators are illustrated numerically, under the additive outlier generating model. Monte Carlo results show that the proposed estimators compared favorably with respect to M-estimators and bounded influence estimators. Based on these results we conclude that one can improve the robust properties of AR(p) estimators using quadratic programming.     

Estimation of the entropy of a multivariate normal distribution

Motivated by problems in molecular biosciences wherein the evaluation of entropy of a molecular system is important for understanding its thermodynamic properties, we consider the efficient estimation of entropy of a multivariate normal distribution having unknown mean vector and covariance matrix. Based on a random sample, we discuss the problem of estimating the entropy under the quadratic loss function. The best affine equivariant estimator is obtained and, interestingly, it also turns out to be an unbiased estimator and a generalized Bayes estimator. It is established that the best affine equivariant estimator is admissible in the class of estimators that depend on the determinant of the sample covariance matrix alone. The risk improvements of the best affine equivariant estimator over the maximum likelihood estimator (an estimator commonly used in molecular sciences) are obtained numerically and are found to be substantial in higher dimensions, which is commonly the case for atomic coordinates in macromolecules such as proteins. We further establish that even the best affine equivariant estimator is inadmissible and obtain Stein-type and Brewster–Zidek-type estimators dominating it. The Brewster–Zidek-type estimator is shown to be generalized Bayes.     

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In this article, we develop efficient robust method for estimation of mean and covariance simultaneously for longitudinal data in regression model. Based on Cholesky decomposition for the covariance matrix and rewriting the regression model, we propose a weighted least square estimator, in which the weights are estimated under generalized empirical likelihood framework. The proposed estimator obtains high efficiency from the close connection to empirical likelihood method, and achieves robustness by bounding the weighted sum of squared residuals. Simulation study shows that, compared to existing robust estimation methods for longitudinal data, the proposed estimator has relatively high efficiency and comparable robustness. In the end, the proposed method is used to analyse a real data set.     

Robust estimation in joint mean–covariance regression model for longitudinal data

In this paper, we develop robust estimation for the mean and covariance jointly for the regression model of longitudinal data within the framework of generalized estimating equations (GEE). The proposed approach integrates the robust method and joint mean–covariance regression modeling. Robust generalized estimating equations using bounded scores and leverage-based weights are employed for the mean and covariance to achieve robustness against outliers. The resulting estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the effectiveness of the proposed method. As expected, the robust method outperforms its non-robust version under contaminations. Finally, we illustrate by analyzing a hormone data set. By downweighing the potential outliers, the proposed method not only shifts the estimation in the mean model, but also shrinks the range of the innovation variance, leading to a more reliable estimation in the covariance matrix.     

Deleting Outliers in Robust Regression with Mixed Integer Programming

In robust regression we often have to decide how many are the unusual observations, which should be removed from the sample in order to obtain better fitting for the rest of the observations. Generally, we use the basic principle of LTS, which is to fit the majority of the data, identifying as outliers those points that cause the biggest damage to the robust fit. However, in the LTS regression method the choice of default values for high break down-point affects seriously the efficiency of the estimator. In the proposed approach we introduce penalty cost for discarding an outlier, consequently, the best fit for the majority of the data is obtained by discarding only catastrophic observations. This penalty cost is based on robust design weights and high break down-point residual scale taken from the LTS estimator. The robust estimation is obtained by solving a convex quadratic mixed integer programming problem, where in the objective function the sum of the squared residuals and penalties for discarding observations is minimized. The proposed mathematical programming formula is suitable for small-sample data. Moreover, we conduct a simulation study to compare other robust estimators with our approach in terms of their efficiency and robustness.     

Robust estimation of efficient mean�Cvariance frontiers

Standard methods for optimal allocation of shares in a financial portfolio are determined by second-order conditions which are very sensitive to outliers. The well-known Markowitz approach, which is based on the input of a mean vector and a covariance matrix, seems to provide questionable results in financial management, since small changes of inputs might lead to irrelevant portfolio allocations. However, existing robust estimators often suffer from masking of multiple influential observations, so we propose a new robust estimator which suitably weights data using a forward search approach. A Monte Carlo simulation study and an application to real data show some advantages of the proposed approach.     

线性模型参数的稳健化有偏估计

本文讨论复共线性和粗差同时存在时线性模型的参数估计问题,基于等价权原理提出了一个稳健有偏估计类（稳健压缩估计）,并且建立了稳健压缩估计的计算方法,为了满足实际问题的需要,构造了许多很有意义的稳健有偏估计,例如稳健岭估计、稳健主成分估计,稳健组合主成估计、稳健单参数主成分估计、稳健根方估计等等,最后通过一个算例表明,本文提出的稳健有偏估计具有既可克服复共线性影响又可抵抗粗差干扰的良好性质。     

Robust Simulation-Based Estimation of ARMA Models

This article proposes a new approach to the robust estimation of a mixed autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) model. It is based on the indirect inference method that originally was proposed for models with an intractable likelihood function. The estimation algorithm proposed is based on an auxiliary autoregressive representation whose parameters are first estimated on the observed time series and then on data simulated from the ARMA model. To simulate data the parameters of the ARMA model have to be set. By varying these we can minimize a distance between the simulation-based and the observation-based auxiliary estimate. The argument of the minimum yields then an estimator for the parameterization of the ARMA model. This simulation-based estimation procedure inherits the properties of the auxiliary model estimator. For instance, robustness is achieved with GM estimators. An essential feature of the introduced estimator, compared to existing robust estimators for ARMA models, is its theoretical tractability that allows us to show consistency and asymptotic normality. Moreover, it is possible to characterize the influence function and the breakdown point of the estimator. In a small sample Monte Carlo study it is found that the new estimator performs fairly well when compared with existing procedures. Furthermore, with two real examples, we also compare the proposed inferential method with two different approaches based on outliers detection.     

Reducing bias of the maximum likelihood estimator of shape parameter for the gamma Distribution

The gamma distribution is an important probability distribution in statistics. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of its shape parameter is well known to be considerably biased, so that it has some modified versions. A new modified MLE of the shape for the gamma distribution is proposed in this paper, which is consistent, asymptotically normal and efficient. For finite-sample behavior, the new estimator improves the traditional MLE not only for reducing bias but also for gaining estimation efficiency significantly. In terms of estimation efficiency, it dominates other existing modified estimators.     

Double Shrinkage Estimators in the GMANOVA Model

In the GMANOVA model or equivalent growth curve model, shrinkage effects on the MLE (maximum likelihood estimator) are considered under an invariant risk matrix. We first study the fundamental structure of the problem through which we decompose the estimation problem into some conditional problems and then demonstrate some classes of double shrinkage minimax estimators which uniformly dominate the MLE in the matrix risk.     

Robust Depth-Weighted Wavelet for Nonparametric Regression Models

In the nonparametric regression models, the original regression estimators including kernel estimator, Fourier series estimator and wavelet estimator are always constructed by the weighted sum of data, and the weights depend only on the distance between the design points and estimation points. As a result these estimators are not robust to the perturbations in data. In order to avoid this problem, a new nonparametric regression model, called the depth-weighted regression model, is introduced and then the depth-weighted wavelet estimation is defined. The new estimation is robust to the perturbations in data, which attains very high breakdown value close to 1/2. On the other hand, some asymptotic behaviours such as asymptotic normality are obtained. Some simulations illustrate that the proposed wavelet estimator is more robust than the original wavelet estimator and, as a price to pay for the robustness, the new method is slightly less efficient than the original method.     

On the asymptotic normality of estimating the affine preferential attachment network models with random initial degrees

We consider the estimation of the affine parameter and power-law exponent in the preferential attachment model with random initial degrees. We derive the likelihood, and show that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is asymptotically normal and efficient. We also propose a quasi-maximum-likelihood estimator (QMLE) to overcome the MLE’s dependence on the history of the initial degrees. To demonstrate the power of our idea, we present numerical simulations.     

时空模型的局部众数回归

时空数据经常含有奇异点或来自重尾分布,此时基于最小二乘的估计方法效果欠佳,需要更稳健的估计方法.本文提出时空模型的基于局部众数(local modal, LM)的局部线性估计方法.理论和数据分析结果都显示,若数据含有奇异点或来自重尾分布,基于局部众数的局部线性方法比基于最小二乘的局部线性方法有效;若数据无奇异点且来自正态分布,两种方法效率渐近一致.本文采用众数期望最大化(modal expectation-maximization, MEM)算法,并在数据相依情形下得出估计量的渐近正态性.     

The Kullback-Leibler risk of the Stein estimator and the conditional MLE

The decomposition of the Kullback-Leibler risk of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is discussed in relation to the Stein estimator and the conditional MLE. A notable correspondence between the decomposition in terms of the Stein estimator and that in terms of the conditional MLE is observed. This decomposition reflects that of the expected log-likelihood ratio. Accordingly, it is concluded that these modified estimators reduce the risk by reducing the expected log-likelihood ratio. The empirical Bayes method is discussed from this point of view.     

Kullback-Leibler Information Consistent Estimation for Censored Data

This paper is intended as an investigation of parametric estimation for the randomly right censored data. In parametric estimation, the Kullback-Leibler information is used as a measure of the divergence of a true distribution generating a data relative to a distribution in an assumed parametric model M. When the data is uncensored, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is a consistent estimator of minimizing the Kullback-Leibler information, even if the assumed model M does not contain the true distribution. We call this property minimum Kullback-Leibler information consistency (MKLI-consistency). However, the MLE obtained by maximizing the likelihood function based on the censored data is not MKLI-consistent. As an alternative to the MLE, Oakes (1986, Biometrics, 42, 177–182) proposed an estimator termed approximate maximum likelihood estimator (AMLE) due to its computational advantage and potential for robustness. We show MKLI-consistency and asymptotic normality of the AMLE under the misspecification of the parametric model. In a simulation study, we investigate mean square errors of these two estimators and an estimator which is obtained by treating a jackknife corrected Kaplan-Meier integral as the log-likelihood. On the basis of the simulation results and the asymptotic results, we discuss comparison among these estimators. We also derive information criteria for the MLE and the AMLE under censorship, and which can be used not only for selecting models but also for selecting estimation procedures.     

Estimation of a Normal Covariance Matrix with Incomplete Data under Stein′s Loss

Suppose that we have (n − a) independent observations from N_p(0, Σ) and that, in addition, we have a independent observations available on the last (p − c) coordinates. Assuming that both observations are independent, we consider the problem of estimating Σ under the Stein′s loss function, and show that some estimators invariant under the permutation of the last (p − c) coordinates as well as under those of the first c coordinates are better than the minimax estimators of Eaten. The estimators considered outperform the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) under the Stein′s loss function as well. The method involved here is computation of an unbiased estimate of the risk of an invariant estimator considered in this article. In addition we discuss its application to the problem of estimating a covariance matrix in a GMANOVA model since the estimation problem of the covariance matrix with extra data can be regarded as its canonical form.     

On the robust estimation in poisson processes with periodic intensities

Under some regularity conditions, it is well known that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is asymptotically normal and efficient. However, if the observation is contaminated, the MLE is not always an appropriate estimator. In this paper, we treat M-estimators and study their asymptotic behavior. By choosing estimation equations, robust M-estimators are presented for phase parameters.     

Sparse Steinian Covariance Estimation

We consider a new method for sparse covariance matrix estimation which is motivated by previous results for the so-called Stein-type estimators. Stein proposed a method for regularizing the sample covariance matrix by shrinking together the eigenvalues; the amount of shrinkage is chosen to minimize an unbiased estimate of the risk (UBEOR) under the entropy loss function. The resulting estimator has been shown in simulations to yield significant risk reductions over the maximum likelihood estimator. Our method extends the UBEOR minimization problem by adding an ?₁ penalty on the entries of the estimated covariance matrix, which encourages a sparse estimate. For a multivariate Gaussian distribution, zeros in the covariance matrix correspond to marginal independences between variables. Unlike the ?₁-penalized Gaussian likelihood function, our penalized UBEOR objective is convex and can be minimized via a simple block coordinate descent procedure. We demonstrate via numerical simulations and an analysis of microarray data from breast cancer patients that our proposed method generally outperforms other methods for sparse covariance matrix estimation and can be computed efficiently even in high dimensions.     

A robust and efficient adaptive reweighted estimator of multivariate location and scatter

This article proposes a reweighted estimator of multivariate location and scatter, with weights adaptively computed from the data. Its breakdown point and asymptotic behavior under elliptical distributions are established. This adaptive estimator is able to attain simultaneously the maximum possible breakdown point for affine equivariant estimators and full asymptotic efficiency at the multivariate normal distribution. For the special case of hard-rejection weights and the MCD as initial estimator, it is shown to be more efficient than its non-adaptive counterpart for a broad range of heavy-tailed elliptical distributions. A Monte Carlo study shows that the adaptive estimator is as robust as its non-adaptive relative for several types of bias-inducing contaminations, while it is remarkably more efficient under normality for sample sizes as small as 200.     

Asymptotic properties of conditional maximum likelihood estimator in a certain exponential model

The conditional maximum likelihood estimator is suggested as an alternative to the maximum likelihood estimator and is favorable for an estimator of a dispersion parameter in the normal distribution, the inverse-Gaussian distribution, and so on. However, it is not clear whether the conditional maximum likelihood estimator is asymptotically efficient in general. Consider the case where it is asymptotically efficient and its asymptotic covariance depends only on an objective parameter in an exponential model. This remand implies that the exponential model possesses a certain parallel foliation. In this situation, this paper investigates asymptotic properties of the conditional maximum likelihood estimator and compares the conditional maximum likelihood estimator with the maximum likelihood estimator. We see that the bias of the former is more robust than that of the latter and that two estimators are very close, especially in the sense of bias-corrected version. The mean Pythagorean relation is also discussed.