捕食交易策略研究

引入信息不对称和瞬时冲击,研究了捕食交易策略及其存在的必要条件,并给出数值算例.结论表明,捕食者的最优交易策略为时间的二次曲线形式,并且捕食交易利润是瞬时冲击系数的单调减函数.     

基于Dempster-Shafer证据理论的外汇交易策略研究

自动化交易是现代金融领域的研究热点,而交易策略是其核心。技术指标分析中,每一种指标都有其优势和劣势,单一的指标经常产生导致亏损的虚假信号。为了提高交易信号的质量和可靠性,针对外汇市场的多变性和存在诸多不确定性的客观事实,本文引入证据理论来处理不同技术指标分析方法结论存在的差异;将不同的指标作为独立的证据源,用D-S合成规则对各个指标分析方法的结果予以融合,建立了基于证据理论的多指标融合外汇交易模型,给出了基于证据理论的交易框架。根据技术指标的特点及交易原理,构造了指标证据的基本概率分配函数。最后,通过实例分析验证了该方法的科学性和有效性。     

A General Stochastic Calculus Approach to Insider Trading

The purpose of this paper is to present a general stochastic calculus approach to insider trading. We consider a market driven by a standard Brownian motion $B(t)$ on a filtered probability space $\displaystyle (\Omega,\F,\left\{\F\right\}_{t\geq 0},P)$ where the coefficients are adapted to a filtration ${\Bbb G}=\left\{\G_t\right\}_{0\leq t\leq T}$, with $\F_t\subset\G_t$ for all $t\in [0,T]$, $T>0$ being a fixed terminal time. By an {\it insider} in this market we mean a person who has access to a filtration (information) $\displaystyle{\Bbb H}=\left\{\H_t\right\}_{0\leq t\leq T}$ which is strictly bigger than the filtration $\displaystyle{\Bbb G}=\left\{\G_t\right\}_{0\leq t\leq T}$. In this context an insider strategy is represented by an $\H_t$-adapted process $\phi(t)$ and we interpret all anticipating integrals as the forward integral defined in [23] and [25]. We consider an optimal portfolio problem with general utility for an insider with access to a general information $\H_t \supset\G_t$ and show that if an optimal insider portfolio $\pi^*(t)$ of this problem exists, then $B(t)$ is an $\H_t$-semimartingale, i.e. the enlargement of filtration property holds. This is a converse of previously known results in this field. Moreover, if $\pi^*$ exists we obtain an explicit expression in terms of $\pi^*$ for the semimartingale decomposition of $B(t)$ with respect to $\H_t$. This is a generalization of results in [16], [20] and [2].     

A Differential Game of Transboundary Industrial Pollution with Emission Permits Trading

Transboundary pollution is a particularly serious problem as it leads people located at regional borders to disproportionately suffer from pollution. In 2007, a cooperative differential game model of transboundary industrial pollution was presented by Yeung. It is the first time that time-consistent solutions are derived in a cooperative differential game on pollution control with industries and governments being separate entities. In this paper, we extend Yeung’s model to an even more general model, in which emission permits trading is taken into account. Our objective is to make use of optimal control theory to find the two regions’ noncooperative and cooperative optimal emission paths such that the regions’ discounted stream of net revenues is maximized. We illustrate the results with a numerical example.     

融资融券交易与A股市场波动相关性实证研究

本文基于A股市场开展融资融券交易以来的实际数据,用Johnson协整检验,误差修正模型和Granger因果关系检验方法,实证研究了融资融券业务的开展对A股市场价格和波动性的影响,结果显示融资融券交易对A股市场的价格和波动性的影响都不显著.     

Insider Trading in Convergent Markets

Optimal trading strategies are found for an insider who is trading in two convergent stocks and is bound by margin constraints.     

Trading water along a river

A set of agents is located along a river. Each agent consumes certain amount of water he receives from his part of the river basin and may sell certain amount to his downstream agent if it is mutually beneficial. Water trading is restricted to two neighboring agents and an agent can only pass water to his downstream agent. We ask if this restricted trade to neighboring agents can implement an efficient allocation of water. We show that the efficient allocation of water can be achieved through the process of downstream bilateral trading. Specifically, we show that this one way “downstream” trading process implements the unique efficient allocation as well as a welfare distribution. We also show that the welfare distribution is in the core of the associated game of the problem. Moreover, we show that the coalition of agents upstream any agent obtains more welfare with the bilateral trading than with the downstream incremental distribution proposed by Ambec and Sprumont (2002) and less than with the upstream incremental distribution proposed by [Ambec and Ehlers, 2008a] and [Ambec and Ehlers, 2008b].     

融资融券交易对我国股市波动性影响的实证研究

采用710个融资融券的标的股票数据,利用VAR方法,从股票市场整体和不同类别股票个体两个角度,分别研究融资融券交易对股市及个股波动性的影响.实证结果表明,融资融券交易能够显著降低股票市场的波动性,另外,相对而言,在高市盈率下、高换手率和低换手率下,融资融券交易也能够显著降低标的股票的波动性,投资者可以通过购买具有相应特征的标的股票降低其投资风险.     

我国多区域CGE模型的构建及其在碳交易政策模拟中的应用

构建了包含碳排放模块的多区域CGE模型,它可以用来模拟分析多种碳排放交易制度的政策情景,包括多种初始分配(免费发放与拍卖)方式、区域之间是否可以交易、试点情景、全国情景等;不仅可以模拟这些情景对产业结构和碳排放的影响,而且还可以分析其对我国区域经济和碳交易市场的影响.我国碳交易试点未来的发展趋势是全国碳交易市场,实现区域间的交易,因此,以跨区交易为例进行了应用模拟,结果表明跨区交易可以大大提高减排效率.     

中国股票市场交易量与价格波动关系实证研究

利用个股数据资料和非对称成分GARCH-M模型对中国股票市场的量价关系进行了实证研究.结论显示:股价的短期波动主要由非预期交易量解释,即非预期交易量所揭示的新信息是产生价格波动的根源;中国股票市场部分个股存在明显的杠杆效应,利空消息对市场波动的冲击大于同等程度的利好消息对市场波动的冲击;非预期交易行为对市场波动的冲击存在显著的非对称特征,正的交易量冲击(交易量放量冲击)比同等程度的负交易量冲击(交易量缩量冲击)对市场波动的影响更大.     

证券市场内幕交易有信息含量的临界点值推算

中国证券市场内幕交易的同时存在市场操纵行为,使得独立判断内幕交易的信息含量存在困难.为解决判断纯粹内幕交易是否具有信息含量问题,需要确定内幕交易具有信息含量的临界点值.采用我国证券市场内幕交易与操纵样本数据,先在操纵均衡点附近排除市场操纵的影响,然后推算出无消息、无操纵状态下证券随同大盘运动的理论增长路径,在此基础上比较基于内幕信息操纵和理论增长情况,通过设定与理论增长的倍数关系,推算纯粹内幕交易具有信息含量的临界点值:异常收益应大于3%.该值可以解释现有文献认为内幕交易有或没有信息含量的矛盾与争论.应用于中国内幕交易实际情况及与近年国际相关研究文献对照,临界点值得到支持.     

基于干预分析的黄金日交易价格时序模型

黄金既关乎国家的战略利益,又关乎老百姓的切身利益,研究黄金价格的变化规律具有重要意义.观察2012年10月1日到2013年8月6日黄金的日交易开盘价发现,在4月中旬和6月下旬黄金价格突然大跌,这期间两次外部事件的发生可以为金价下跌作解释.将两次外部事件作为干预变量,对这段时间的黄金日交易价格建立干预时序模型.经分析这两次干预影响不能只用常规的四种基本类型来描述,它们还具有二次函数的形式.引入具有二次函数形式的干预影响,以提高估计和预测的精度.通过对比发现,干预时序模型不仅在拟合过去而且在预测未来黄金价格方面,都比经典的ARIMA模型精确.     

Dynamic Calibration of Price-Trend Parameters for Commodity Futures Trading

This paper addresses the problem of buying commodities through the futures markets and deals specifically with a heuristic rule developed for the scenario described as `purchasing under a deadline'. The rule is based on a short-term forecasts produced by Taylor's price-trend model. In a previous study applied to the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures market the price-trend parameters of the stochastic process generating the daily returns were shown to be nearly stable over time and hence could be estimated using a static procedure. However, the analysis presented in this paper concerning the CBOT soybean futures market strongly suggests that those parameters were unstable, impairing the successful application of the purchasing rule. The authors recommend the continuous CUSUM monitoring of the purchasing results and propose a procedure for dynamically calibrating the price-trend and buying parameters. Under this procedure the price-trend parameter estimates are derived from exponentially smoothed sample autocorrelation coefficients of the rescaled daily returns. The procedure was developed and tested using the 1972-87 series of CBOT daily soybean futures closing prices. The results suggest that it leads to an improvement on the purchasing results derived from the static parameter calibration procedure formerly adopted.     

Optimizing the Ex-post Trading Profits in a Financial Market

1.Introduction"Buylow,sellhigh"isaninveStmentdicttnnwhichiseasiersaidthandone.Thefacultyinvolvedisthatthefutureisunknownand'highs,and'lOws,arenotwelldefinedunlessthefuturepricesareknobs.However,evenwhenthefUturepricesarecompletelyknown,itmaynotbeeasytodet…     

证券市场正反馈交易与收益自相关

正反馈交易是非理性投资者的一种交易策略,正反馈交易者通常依据证券前一期收益的高低决定其当期买卖行为。在正反馈交易存在的情况下,证券市场收益会表现出不同于有效市场假设所假定的特征,使证券市场表现出超常的波动性。本文建立了一个正反馈交易者和理性交易者参与的市场模型,分析了该市场中证券收益时间序列呈现出的正自相关性。     

Trading Inversions for Multiplications in Elliptic Curve Cryptography

Recently, Eisenträger et al. proposed a very elegant method for speeding up scalar multiplication on elliptic curves. Their method relies on improved formulas for evaluating S=(2P + Q) from given points P and Q on an elliptic curve. Compared to the naive approach, the improved formulas save a field multiplication each time the operation is performed. This paper proposes a variant which is faster whenever a field inversion is more expensive than six field multiplications. We also give an improvement when tripling a point, and present a ternary/binary method to perform efficient scalar multiplication.     

The Gilt Market: Models and Model-Based Trading

The construction of a model of the UK Government bond market, the gilts market, is described. The model uses discount functions, represented by low degree polynomials in the form of B splines, to estimate the theoretical price of each gilt. A demonstration of the use of the model for trading gilts is given and shown to be profitable. The gilt market is one of the more important fixed interest bond markets and the feasibility of extending the use of the model to other markets, for governmental bonds and eurobonds, is explored.     

小波分析印花税调整对股市成交量的影响

在2008年中国股票市场的下跌趋势中,政府为提振股票市场,在2008年4月24日和2008年9月19日分别将印花税由3%下调至1%和单边开征印花税,引起当时市场的强烈反应。文章给出小波检验方法,考察印花税对大盘指数的走势的作用。从结果来看,短期内(小于4天)对股市成交量有很大促进作用,而长期(大于16天)作用有限。     

带最小交易单位的Markowitz模型及算法

在证券交易市场中,交易规则要求购买的股票数量为整数.基于这种情况,将Markowitz模型中资产的投资比例改进为资产的投资数量,构造了一个二次整数规划模型.设计了求解该模型的算法,经过实证分析,算法是有效的.