Neural network as a simulation metamodel in economic analysis of risky projects

An artificial neural network (ANN) model for economic analysis of risky projects is presented in this paper. Outputs of conventional simulation models are used as neural network training inputs. The neural network model is then used to predict the potential returns from an investment project having stochastic parameters. The nondeterministic aspects of the project include the initial investment, the magnitude of the rate of return, and the investment period. Backpropagation method is used in the neural network modeling. Sigmoid and hyperbolic tangent functions are used in the learning aspect of the system. Analysis of the outputs of the neural network model indicates that more predictive capability can be achieved by coupling conventional simulation with neural network approaches. The trained network was able to predict simulation output based on the input values with very good accuracy for conditions not in its training set. This allowed an analysis of the future performance of the investment project without having to run additional expensive and time-consuming simulation experiments.     

贝叶斯方法在养老基金资产负债管理中的应用

把一个静态资产负债管理模型———均值方差模型应用到定额给付养老金计划的资产负债管理中,在允许无风险借贷的条件下研究养老金在无风险资产和风险资产间的分配问题,用定量分析的方法求出了最优投资组合的一般形式;又针对投资收益率特征参数未知的情况,提出了矩估计和贝叶斯估计两种方法求解最优资本配置比例,将两种方法的结果与一般形式对比,分析了影响最优投资组合的因素,得知养老基金在风险资产中的投资比例与基金经理对风险的厌恶程度、风险资产的风险益酬、风险资产收益率的波动性成负相关关系;并且随决策者掌握的历史信息增加,在风险资产上的投资比例也随之增加,投资行为逐渐趋于理性化;对上述结果进行仿真,验证了结论的有效性。     

A numerical method for the expected penalty-reward function in a Markov-modulated jump-diffusion process

A generalization of the Cramér-Lundberg risk model perturbed by a diffusion is proposed. Aggregate claims of an insurer follow a compound Poisson process and premiums are collected at a constant rate with additional random fluctuation. The insurer is allowed to invest the surplus into a risky asset with volatility dependent on the level of the investment, which permits the incorporation of rational investment strategies as proposed by Berk and Green (2004). The return on investment is modulated by a Markov process which generalizes previously studied settings for the evolution of the interest rate in time. The Gerber-Shiu expected penalty-reward function is studied in this context, including ruin probabilities (a first-passage problem) as a special case. The second order integro-differential system of equations that characterizes the function of interest is obtained. As a closed-form solution does not exist, a numerical procedure based on the Chebyshev polynomial approximation through a collocation method is proposed. Finally, some examples illustrating the procedure are presented.     

受融资影响的项目组合选择研究

本文构建了一个考虑融资的项目组合选择模型,允许企业根据每期的投资计划,合理地调节当期所需要投入的资金预算。如果期初的可用资金量超过了当期的投资额,企业可以尽早将多余的资金释放;反之,若期初的可用资金量不足以支持本期项目的执行,允许企业从外部融资,如银行贷款等,以满足企业实际的需求。融资需要付出一定的代价,且代价与执行项目的风险程度相关。基于此,偿还融资代价对项目组合经济性的影响被引入到项目组合选择模型中。企业需要在全部资金带来的投资收益及融资代价之间进行权衡,以谋求利润最大化。鉴于所构建模型非线性化的特点,本文给出了该模型的等价形式,并进行了理论证明。最后,通过企业实际算例分析,得出结论:1)考虑融资后能够为企业带来更高回报;2)融资相关因素对项目组合的经济性有显著影响。     

Optimal investment for the defined-contribution pension with stochastic salary under a CEV model

In this paper, we study the optimal investment strategy of defined-contribution pension with the stochastic salary. The investor is allowed to invest in a risk-free asset and a risky asset whose price process follows a constant elasticity of variance model. The stochastic salary follows a stochastic differential equation, whose instantaneous volatility changes with the risky asset price all the time. The HJB equation associated with the optimal investment problem is established, and the explicit solution of the corresponding optimization problem for the CARA utility function is obtained by applying power transform and variable change technique. Finally, we present a numerical analysis.     

Optimal investment and reinsurance policies in insurance markets under the effect of inside information

In this paper, we study the problem of optimal investment and proportional reinsurance coverage in the presence of inside information. To be more precise, we consider two firms: an insurer and a reinsurer who are both allowed to invest their surplus in a Black–Scholes‐type financial market. The insurer faces a claims process that is modeled by a Brownian motion with drift and has the possibility to reduce the risk involved with this process by purchasing proportional reinsurance coverage. Moreover, the insurer has some extra information at her disposal concerning the future realizations of her claims process, available from the beginning of the trading interval and hidden from the reinsurer, thus introducing in this way inside information aspects to our model. The optimal investment and proportional reinsurance decision for both firms is determined by the solution of suitable expected utility maximization problems, taking into account explicitly their different information sets. The solution of these problems also determines the reinsurance premia via a partial equilibrium approach. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

限制卖空证券组合有效边缘的灵敏度分析

本文利用参数二次规划对偶性理论讨论了限制卖空的证券组合有效边缘的性质。分析的结果表明：有限制卖空的证券组合的有效边缘是一条连续的、凸的、分片二次函数连接而成的曲线。应用三元分割技术可以得到,在可选择证券空间上,有些证券从不会作为投资选择的对象。     

An Oligopolistic Investment Model of the Finnish Electricity Market

The investment problem faced by producers in deregulated electricity markets contains high uncertainties about the future. It can also be seen as a game, as only a small number of large players act in the market. A dynamic stochastic oligopoly model to describe the production and investment in such a situation is developed and applied to the Finnish electricity market. The demand growth rate is modeled as a stochastic variable. The strategies of the firms consist of investments and production levels for base and peak load periods. The firms have nuclear, hydro and thermal capacities, but are only allowed to invest in new thermal capacity. Using a so-called sample-path adapted open-loop information structure, the model contributes to the understanding of the dynamics of production, investment and market power in a medium time horizon. The solution method uses recent developments in variational inequality and mixed complementarity problem formulations.     

科技投入的博弈分析模型

本文把博弈论应用于科技投入分析,利用博弈论的委托—代理理论构造了一个委托—代理激励模型,研究中央对地方科技投入的激励机制,并针对委托人和代理人的不同风险情况进行了分析,讨论了对地地方政府科技投入激励的必要性。     

最佳投资策略下投资额函数的渐近性质

本文考虑一个经典风险模型,且允许保险公司投资股票市场,通过选择适当的投资策略使破产概率达到最小,并求出当分布函数F(x)是正则变化函数时,投资额函数A(x)的近似表达式.     

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??It is assumed that both an insurance company and a reinsurance company adopt the variance premium principle to collect premiums. Specifically, an insurance company is allowed to investment not only in a domestic risk-free asset and a risky asset, but also in a foreign risky asset. Firstly, we use a geometry Brownian motion to model the exchange rate risk, and assume that the insurance company could control the insurance risk by transferring the insurance business into the reinsurance company. Secondly, the stochastic dynamic programming principle is used to study the optimal investment and reinsurance problems in two situations. The first is a diffusion approximation risk model and the second is a classical risk model. The optimal investment and reinsurance strategies are obtained under these two situations. We also show that the exchange rate risk has a great impact on the insurance company's investment strategies, but has no effect on the reinsurance strategies. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of some parameters is provided.     

Optimal Investment-Reinsurance Strategy with Exchange Rate Risk under Variance Premium Principl

It is assumed that both an insurance company and a reinsurance company adopt the variance premium principle to collect premiums. Specifically, an insurance company is allowed to investment not only in a domestic risk-free asset and a risky asset, but also in a foreign risky asset. Firstly, we use a geometry Brownian motion to model the exchange rate risk, and assume that the insurance company could control the insurance risk by transferring the insurance business into the reinsurance company. Secondly, the stochastic dynamic programming principle is used to study the optimal investment and reinsurance problems in two situations. The first is a diffusion approximation risk model and the second is a classical risk model. The optimal investment and reinsurance strategies are obtained under these two situations. We also show that the exchange rate risk has a great impact on the insurance company's investment strategies, but has no effect on the reinsurance strategies. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of some parameters is provided.     

保险联结风险投资模型的赤字问题

保险公司被允许将部分资金投入风险市场,这样保险公司经营的风险来自于未来实际发生索赔的不确定性和投资收益的不确定性。研究了由经典的Cramer-Lundberg模型与按照几何布朗运动股票价格变动的一个风险模型,获得了三种资产分配情况下股票价格波动对赤字发生概率下界的影响。     

基于主成分分析与Fourier变换的动态投资组合

提出了一种将主成分分析与Fourier变换组合的资产投资组合方法.对于N个资产,首先利用主成分分析中第一主成分确定各资产的组合权重并建立投资组合,利用Fourier变换获得该组合残差的复合周期趋势,最后利用ARMA模型对趋势残差进行区间预测.为使资产保值,当组合股价达到最低点时,各资产以第一主成分对应权重进行组合建仓;当组合股价反向上升达到最高点时,则以第N主成分对应权重进行组合并调仓.在实证模拟方面,选取2016年1月4日-2018年6月8日全球股票主要指数的收盘价数据进行实证分析.模拟结果表明:基于主成分分析的投资组合在收益及资产保值方面表现更佳.     

在折现率大于零的情况下,具有完成时间和残值不确定性的R&D项目的投资策略

利用随机停时理论 ,考虑 R&D项目的连续投资策略 .在折现率大于零的情况下 ,给出了具有建设期和残值的不确定性的 R&D投资模型、放弃 R&D项目投资的临界值和最优决策规则 ,并讨论参数对临界值的影响 .也进一步验证了随机停时理论和实物期权理论在投资决策分析中的一致性 .     

The explicit derivation of the efficient portfolio frontier in the case of degeneracy and general singularity

In this paper the efficient portfolio frontier is derived explicitly for cases in which short sales are not allowed and more than one variable vanishes in a point of investment returns (degenerate case). When the covariance-variance matrix of the problem is singular (positive semi-definite) or diagonal some properties are also derived.     

Rules of Thumb and the Impact of Debt in Capital Budgeting Models

For financial planning problems involving the simultaneous selection of investment and financing decisions, linear programming models are superior from the standpoint of financial theory to simple "rules of thumb" such as conventional discounting. Nevertheless, from the practical point of view and as the acceptance of programming models by the financial management community is rather sluggish, it is still relevant to ask the question "how do the results of the two approaches differ?". The answer to this depends on the complexity of the modelling found necessary. For very simple situations the answer is none at all, but for other situations the difference can be substantial. This paper investigates part of the middle ground of complexity, where the principal extension to the simplest model is the inclusion of debt and debt capacity and proposes that simple "rules of thumb" can give results sufficiently close to optimal for most purposes.     

线性约束下保险公司的最优投资策略

现实中,保险公司的投资行为会受到《保险法》及其自身风险管理条例的约束; 另外,保险公司必须提存一定数量的准备金以满足监管规定.鉴于此,本文将保险公司盈余首达最低准备金水平的时刻定义为``破产”时刻,以最小化``破产”概率为目标, 假设保险公司的盈余过程服从扩散模型,其可投资无风险资产与一种风险资产且投资受线性约束.我们通过求解相应的HJB方程得到了值函数与最优投资策略的解析式并给出了经济解释与数值算例.     

创新驱动模式下战略性新兴产业政府补贴策略分析

针对政府补贴难以激励战略性新兴产业形成创新驱动力的问题,以新能源汽车产业为例,构建了一个旨在促进企业技术研发的政府创新补贴策略分析模型。假设产业呈现明显的创新驱动特征,模型分别针对政府理性决策与有限理性决策的情况,对政府创新补贴及企业创新投入策略进行了博弈均衡分析,并讨论了技术创新环境的改善对最优策略及局中人收益的影响。结果表明,在创新驱动模式下,企业最优创新投入比例对政府补贴水平不敏感,且过高的补贴可能挤出企业创新投入,容易形成企业套利空间。此外,改善技术创新环境对强化企业市场主体地位,弱化政府管制对市场的干预具有积极作用。     

Better than pre-committed optimal mean-variance policy in a jump diffusion market

Dynamic mean-variance investment model can not be solved by dynamic programming directly due to the nonseparable structure of variance minimization problem. Instead of adopting embedding scheme, Lagrangian duality approach or mean-variance hedging approach, we transfer the model into mean field mean-variance formulation and derive the explicit pre-committed optimal mean-variance policy in a jump diffusion market. Similar to multi-period setting, the pre-committed optimal mean-variance policy is not time consistent in efficiency. When the wealth level of the investor exceeds some pre-given level, following pre-committed optimal mean-variance policy leads to irrational investment behaviors. Thus, we propose a semi-self-financing revised policy, in which the investor is allowed to withdraw partial of his wealth out of the market. And show the revised policy has a better investment performance in the sense of achieving the same mean-variance pair as pre-committed policy and receiving a nonnegative free cash flow stream.