正态分布和瑞利分布混合情形下的参数估计及分类问题

学者往往用单一的分布模拟和拟合杂波,如正态分布、瑞利分布和威布尔分布等。然而在实际中,雷达杂波由多种类型的杂波组成,单一分布通常不能精确刻画雷达杂波规律,因此,应用混合分布模型对雷达杂波数据建模更准确。本文考虑用正态分布和瑞利分布的混合分布拟合杂波,并应用矩估计方法和基于EM算法的极大似然估计方法估计模型参数,最后,应用最大后验概率分类准则验证2种估计方法的分类准确率。通过数据模拟,得出极大似然估计的效果和分类准确率都要优于矩估计的估计效果和分类准确率。     

A lifetime model with increasing failure rate

This paper deals with a new two-parameter lifetime distribution with increasing failure rate. This distribution is constructed as a distribution of a random sum of independent exponential random variables when the sample size has a zero truncated binomial distribution. Various statistical properties of the distribution are derived. We estimate the parameters by maximum likelihood and obtain the Fisher information matrix. Simulation studies show the performance of the estimators. Also, estimation of the parameters is considered in the presence of censoring. A real data set is analyzed for illustrative purposes and it is noted that the distribution is a good competitor to the gamma, Weibull, exponentiated exponential, weighted exponential and Poisson-exponential distributions for this data set.     

Pareto分布环境因子的估计及其应用

给出了Pareto分布环境因子的定义,讨论了在定数截尾样本下Pareto分布环境因子的极大似然估计和修正极大似然估计,并尝试把环境因子用于可靠性评估中.最后运用Monte Carlo方法对极大似然估计,修正极大似然估计和可靠性指标的均方误差(MSE),进行了模拟比较,结果表明修正极大似然估计优于极大似然估计且考虑环境因子的可靠性评估结果较好.     

Possible superiority of the conditional MLE over the unconditional MLE

The possibility that the conditional maximum likelihood estimator (CMLE) is superior to the unconditional maximum likelihood estimator (UMLE) is discussed in examples where the residual likelihood is obstructive. We observe relatively smaller risks of the CMLE for a finite sample size. The models in the study include the normal, inverse Gauss, gamma, two-parameter exponential, logit, negative binomial and two-parameter geometric ones.     

基于删失数据的指数威布尔分布最大似然估计的新算法

本文讨论了指数威布尔分布当观测数据是删失数据情形时参数的最大似然估计问题.因为删失数据是一种不完全数据,我们利用EM算法来计算参数的近似最大似然估计.由于EM算法计算的复杂性,计算效率也不理想.为了克服牛顿-拉普森算法和EM算法的局限性,我们提出了一种新的方法.这种方法联合了指数威布尔分布到指数分布的变换和等效寿命数据的技巧,比牛顿-拉普森算法和EM算法更具有操作性.数据模拟讨论了这一方法的可行性.为了演示本文的方法,我们还提供了一个真实寿命数据分析的例子.     

具有缺失数据的两个伽马分布总体参数的估计与假设检验

主要在数据缺失的情况下研究了伽马分布的参数估计与假设检验,位置参数已知的条件下,给出形状参数的极大似然估计,并证明了形状参数估计的强相合性与渐进正态性,并对两总体参数之差的置信区间和假设检验做出分析,最后做随机模拟验证了其合理性.     

The singly truncated normal distribution: A non-steep exponential family

This paper is concerned with the maximum likelihood estimation problem for the singly truncated normal family of distributions. Necessary and suficient conditions, in terms of the coefficient of variation, are provided in order to obtain a solution to the likelihood equations. Furthermore, the maximum likelihood estimator is obtained as a limit case when the likelihood equation has no solution.     

Can Data Recognize Its Parent Distribution?

This study is concerned with model selection of lifetime and survival distributions arising in engineering reliability or in the medical sciences. We compare various distributions—including the gamma, Weibull, and lognormal—with a new distribution called geometric extreme exponential. Except for the lognormal distribution, the other three distributions all have the exponential distribution as special cases. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to determine sample sizes for which survival distributions can distinguish data generated by their own families. Two methods for decision are by maximum likelihood and by Kolmogorov distance. Neither method is uniformly best. The probability of correct selection with more than one alternative shows some surprising results when the choices are close to the exponential distribution.     

The exponentiated generalized inverse Gaussian distribution

The modeling and analysis of lifetime data is an important aspect of statistical work in a wide variety of scientific and technological fields. Good (1953) introduced a probability distribution which is commonly used in the analysis of lifetime data. For the first time, based on this distribution, we propose the so-called exponentiated generalized inverse Gaussian distribution, which extends the exponentiated standard gamma distribution (Nadarajah and Kotz, 2006). Various structural properties of the new distribution are derived, including expansions for its moments, moment generating function, moments of the order statistics, and so forth. We discuss maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters. The usefulness of the new model is illustrated by means of a real data set.     

A non‐default rate regression model for credit scoring

In this paper, we propose a new non‐default rate survival model. Our approach enables different underlying activation mechanisms which lead to the event of interest. The number of competing causes, which may be responsible for the occurrence of the event of interest, is assumed to follow a geometric distribution, while the time to event is assumed to follow an inverse Weibull distribution. An advantage of our approach is to accommodate all activation mechanisms based on order statistics. We explore the use of maximum likelihood estimation procedure. Simulation studies are performed and experimental results are illustrated based on a real Brazilian bank personal loan portfolio data. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Method of Moments Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

We present a computational approach to the method of moments using Monte Carlo simulation. Simple algebraic identities are used so that all computations can be performed directly using simulation draws and computation of the derivative of the log-likelihood. We present a simple implementation using the Newton-Raphson algorithm with the understanding that other optimization methods may be used in more complicated problems. The method can be applied to families of distributions with unknown normalizing constants and can be extended to least squares fitting in the case that the number of moments observed exceeds the number of parameters in the model. The method can be further generalized to allow “moments” that are any function of data and parameters, including as a special case maximum likelihood for models with unknown normalizing constants or missing data. In addition to being used for estimation, our method may be useful for setting the parameters of a Bayes prior distribution by specifying moments of a distribution using prior information. We present two examples—specification of a multivariate prior distribution in a constrained-parameter family and estimation of parameters in an image model. The former example, used for an application in pharmacokinetics, motivated this work. This work is similar to Ruppert's method in stochastic approximation, combines Monte Carlo simulation and the Newton-Raphson algorithm as in Penttinen, uses computational ideas and importance sampling identities of Gelfand and Carlin, Geyer, and Geyer and Thompson developed for Monte Carlo maximum likelihood, and has some similarities to the maximum likelihood methods of Wei and Tanner.     

Lomax分布极大似然估计的两点研究

本文研究了Lomax分布参数极大似然估计的存在性和估计量的收敛性问题.利用严格的分析法和中心极限定理,获得了Lomax分布极大似然估计的存在性和估计量的渐近正态分布的结果,进一步推广到了有缺失数据的两个Lomax总体中,参数的极大似然估计有强相合性和渐近正态性.     

基于左截断右删失数据的单参数Pareto分布参数估计

基于EM算法及极大似然法研究了左截断右删失数据下单参数Pareto分布的参数估计,导出其迭代式,并应用随机模拟对参数估计式进行了模拟检验,结果表明迭代式能够快速收敛,EM估计值较为精确.     

基于区间数据最大似然估计的新方法

In this paper, we study the two-parameter maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)problem for the GE distribution with consideration of interval data. In the presence of interval data, the analytical forms for the restricted MLE of the parameters of GE distribution do not exist. Since interval data is kind of incomplete data, the EM algorithm can be applied to compute the MLEs of the parameters. However the EM algorithm could be less effective.To improve effectiveness, an equivalent lifetime method is employed. The two methods are discussed via simulation studies.     

���ڹ�����߼��ֲ���Ӧ��——ǿ��ģ��ͳ���ƶ�

??This paper deals with reliability inference results in $R=\pr(Y相似文献   

威布尔分布组与删失数据下最大似然估计的存在性

本文研究寿命服从威布尔分布,观测数据分组与可能删失的情况下,最大似然估计的存在性,针对所有数据类型,我们给出了最大似然估计存在性的一个充分必要条件,文章结尾讨论了仅一个失效数据时最大似然估计的计算。     

离散型与连续型分布互为对偶的根源

互为对偶的离散型分布与连续型分布,可以看作是由同一个函数——源函数产生的。源函数的正线性组合、乘积和负导数,仍然是源函数。源函数揭示了互为对偶的分布的分布函数之间的相互关系,并能用来求随机变量的数字特征、特征函数、概率母函数、分布的最大值和参数的极大似然估计.     

正态条件下带AR(1)-型方差结构GMANOVA-MANOVA模型极大似然估计的小样本特征

研究了一类带一阶自回归(AR(1))-型方差结构的广义多元方差分析-多元方差分析(GMANO VA-MANOVA)模型参数极大似然估计的小样本特征.对带AR(1)-型方差结构GMANOVA-MANOVA模型,文章在正态条件下给出了参数极大似然估计存在的一个充分必要条件,讨论了极大似然估计唯一的充分条件.在该充分条件下,文章证明了相关系数极大似然估计的精确分布只与相关系数有关,并依此给出了自相关系数简单假设H0:ρ=0v.s.H1:ρ≠0的一个不需要叠代计算估计的检验,同时模拟表明该检验为无偏检验且势函数与似然比检验势函数无太大差异.     

单参数Pareto分布变点估计研究

研究单参数Pareto分布存在变点时的估计问题,分别利用极大似然估计法和贝叶斯方法对单参数Pareto分布的变点进行估计,并运用Matlab软件进行随机模拟,随机结果表明贝叶斯方法与极大似然估计相比,估计值更接近真值.     

指数分布抽样基本定理及在三参数一般指数分布参数估计中的应用

讨论三参数一般指数分布的参数估计,首先讨论了三参数一般指数分布参数的最大似然估计的求解问题,当其中参数α=1时,应用指数分布抽样基本定理,得到了三参数一般指数分布其它参数的一致最小方差无偏估计;并且由此给出求解三参数一般指数分布参数最大似然估计的迭代方法,得到了三参数一般指数分布参数最大似然估计的近似值,给出了模拟结果以说明迭代方法的收敛性;并以相关文献的观察数据作为样本,得到了三参数一般指数分布的参数估计,从而说明了迭代方法的有效性.