Global behaviour of an SIR epidemic model with time delay

We study the stability of a delay susceptible–infective–recovered epidemic model with time delay. The model is formulated under the assumption that all individuals are susceptible, and we analyse the global stability via two methods—by Lyapunov functionals, and—in terms of the variance of the variables. The main theorem shows that the endemic equilibrium is stable. If the basic reproduction number ?₀ is less than unity, by LaSalle invariance principle, the disease‐free equilibrium E_s is globally stable and the disease always dies out. By applying the integral averaging theory, we also investigate the stability in variance of the model. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A delayed SIR epidemic model with saturation incidence and a constant infectious period

In this paper, an SIR epidemic model with saturation incidence and a time delay describing a constant infectious period is investigated. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium is established. When the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, it is proved that the disease is uniformly persistent in the population, and explicit formulae are obtained to estimate the eventual lower bound of the fraction of infectious individuals. By comparison arguments, it is proved that if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, by means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are derived for the global attractiveness of the endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the main results.     

Permanence of a delayed SIR epidemic model with general nonlinear incidence rate

In this paper, a SIR model with two delays and general nonlinear incidence rate is considered. The local and global asymptotical stabilities of the disease‐free equilibrium are given. The local asymptotical stability and the existence of Hopf bifurcations at the endemic equilibrium are also established by analyzing the distribution of the characteristic values. Furthermore, the sufficient conditions for the permanence of the system are given. Some numerical simulations to support the analytical conclusions are carried out. At last, some conclusions are given. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stability analysis of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with general incidence rate

In this paper, a stochastic delayed epidemic model with a generalized incidence rate is proposed and discussed. The positivity of solutions is established. A linearized form of the model is given and the stability conditions of the endemic equilibrium are obtained by using the technique of Lyapunov functionals.     

Global dynamics of a delayed SIRS epidemic model with a wide class of nonlinear incidence rates

In this paper, by constructing Lyapunov functionals, we consider the global dynamics of an SIRS epidemic model with a wide class of nonlinear incidence rates and distributed delays $\int^{h}_{0} p(\tau)f(S(t),I(t-\tau)) \mathrm{d}\tau$ under the condition that the total population converges to 1. By using a technical lemma which is derived from strong condition of strict monotonicity of functions f(S,I) and f(S,I)/I with respect to S??0 and I>0, we extend the global stability result for an SIR epidemic model if R ₀>1, where R ₀ is the basic reproduction number. By using a limit system of the model, we also show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R ₀=1.     

Global dynamics of an epidemic model with relapse and nonlinear incidence

On the basis of a basic SIR epidemic model, we propose and study an epidemic model with nonlinear incidence. The model also incorporates many features of the recovered such as relapse and with/without immunity. A threshold dynamics is established, which is completely determined by the basic reproduction number. The global stability of the disease‐free equilibrium is proved by means of the fluctuation lemma. To prove the global stability of the endemic equilibrium, we need some novel techniques including the transformation of variables, the construction of a new type of Lyapunov functions, and the seeking of an appropriate positively invariant set of the model.     

Two-group SIR epidemic model with stochastic perturbation

A stochastic two-group SIR model is presented in this paper.The existence and uniqueness of its nonnegative solution is obtained,and the solution belongs to a positively invariant set.Furthermore,the globally asymptotical stability of the disease-free equilibrium is deduced by the stochastic Lyapunov functional method if R0 ≤ 1,which means the disease will die out.While if R0 1,we show that the solution is fluctuating around a point which is the endemic equilibrium of the deterministic model in time average.In addition,the intensity of the fluctuation is proportional to the intensity of the white noise.When the white noise is small,we consider the disease will prevail.At last,we illustrate the dynamic behavior of the model and their approximations via a range of numerical experiments.     

Backward bifurcation in a stage-structured epidemic model

A stage-structured epidemic model is proposed under the assumptions that the disease can only be transmitted among adults and that there is also intraspecific competition among them. We study the existence of equilibria and also obtain their local stability, which implies the occurrence of backward bifurcation. Moreover, sufficient conditions on the global stability of some equilibria are provided.     

Stability and Hopf bifurcation of a delayed epidemic model with stage structure and nonlinear incidence rate

In this paper, a stage‐structured SI epidemic model with time delay and nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of an endemic equilibrium and a disease‐free equilibrium, and the existence of Hopf bifurcations are established. By comparison arguments, it is proved that if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, the disease‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. If the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, by means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global stability of a delayed epidemic model with latent period and vaccination strategy

In this paper, a mathematical model describing the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease with an exposed (latent) period and waning vaccine-induced immunity is investigated. The basic reproduction number is found by applying the method of the next generation matrix. It is shown that the global dynamics of the model is completely determined by the basic reproduction number. By means of appropriate Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle’s invariance principle, it is proven that if the basic reproduction number is less than or equal to unity, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the disease fades out; and if the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and therefore the disease becomes endemic.     

Traveling wave solutions for a delayed diffusive SIR epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate and external supplies

In this paper, we study the traveling wave solutions of a delayed diffusive SIR epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate and constant external supplies. We find that the existence of traveling wave solutions is determined by the basic reproduction number of the corresponding spatial‐homogenous delay differential system and the minimal wave speed. The existence is proved by applying Schauder's fixed point theorem and Lyapunov functional method. The non‐existence of traveling waves is obtained by two‐sided Laplace transform. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.