Integrated production planning and order acceptance under uncertainty: A robust optimization approach

The aim of this paper is to formulate a model that integrates production planning and order acceptance decisions while taking into account demand uncertainty and capturing the effects of congestion. Orders/customers are classified into classes based on their marginal revenue and their level of variability in order quantity (demand variance). The proposed integrated model provides the flexibility to decide on the fraction of demand to be satisfied from each customer class, giving the planner the choice of selecting among the highly profitable yet risky orders or less profitable but possibly more stable orders. Furthermore, when the production stage exceeds a critical utilization level, it suffers the consequences of congestion via elongated lead-times which results in backorders and erodes the firm’s revenue. Through order acceptance decisions, the planner can maintain a reasonable level of utilization and hence avoid increasing delays in production lead times. A robust optimization (RO) approach is adapted to model demand uncertainty and non-linear clearing functions characterize the relationship between throughput and workload to reflect the effects of congestion on production lead times. Illustrative simulation and numerical experiments show characteristics of the integrated model, the effects of congestion and variability, and the value of integrating production planning and order acceptance decisions.     

A robust optimization model for multi-product two-stage capacitated production planning under uncertainty

Production planning (PP) is one of the most important issues carried out in manufacturing environments which seeks efficient planning, scheduling and coordination of all production activities that optimizes the company’s objectives. In this paper, we studied a two-stage real world capacitated production system with lead time and setup decisions in which some parameters such as production costs and customer demand are uncertain. A robust optimization model is developed to formulate the problem in which minimization of the total costs including the setup costs, production costs, labor costs, inventory costs, and workforce changing costs is considered as performance measure. The robust approach is used to reduce the effects of fluctuations of the uncertain parameters with regards to all the possible future scenarios. A mixed-integer programming (MIP) model is developed to formulate the related robust production planning problem. In fact the robust proposed model is presented to generate an initial robust schedule. The performance of this schedule could be improved against of any possible occurrences of uncertain parameters. A case from an Iran refrigerator factory is studied and the characteristics of factory and its products are discussed. The computational results display the robustness and effectiveness of the model and highlight the importance of using robust optimization approach in generating more robust production plans in the uncertain environments. The tradeoff between solution robustness and model robustness is also analyzed.     

Portfolio selection under distributional uncertainty: A relative robust CVaR approach

Robust optimization, one of the most popular topics in the field of optimization and control since the late 1990s, deals with an optimization problem involving uncertain parameters. In this paper, we consider the relative robust conditional value-at-risk portfolio selection problem where the underlying probability distribution of portfolio return is only known to belong to a certain set. Our approach not only takes into account the worst-case scenarios of the uncertain distribution, but also pays attention to the best possible decision with respect to each realization of the distribution. We also illustrate how to construct a robust portfolio with multiple experts (priors) by solving a sequence of linear programs or a second-order cone program.     

Parallel processors for planning under uncertainty

Our goal is to demonstrate for an important class of multistage stochastic models that three techniques — namely nested decomposition, Monte Carlo importance sampling, and parallel computing — can be effectively combined to solve this fundamental problem of large-scale linear programming.     

A robust optimization approach to closed-loop supply chain network design under uncertainty

The concern about significant changes in the business environment (such as customer demands and transportation costs) has spurred an interest in designing scalable and robust supply chains. This paper proposes a robust optimization model for handling the inherent uncertainty of input data in a closed-loop supply chain network design problem. First, a deterministic mixed-integer linear programming model is developed for designing a closed-loop supply chain network. Then, the robust counterpart of the proposed mixed-integer linear programming model is presented by using the recent extensions in robust optimization theory. Finally, to assess the robustness of the solutions obtained by the novel robust optimization model, they are compared to those generated by the deterministic mixed-integer linear programming model in a number of realizations under different test problems.     

A multi-criteria decision making approach for location planning for urban distribution centers under uncertainty

Location planning for urban distribution centers is vital in saving distribution costs and minimizing traffic congestion arising from goods movement in urban areas. In this paper, we present a multi-criteria decision making approach for location planning for urban distribution centers under uncertainty. The proposed approach involves identification of potential locations, selection of evaluation criteria, use of fuzzy theory to quantify criteria values under uncertainty and application of fuzzy TOPSIS to evaluate and select the best location for implementing an urban distribution center. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the influence of criteria weights on location planning decisions for urban distribution centers.The strength of the proposed work is the ability to deal with uncertainty arising due to a lack of real data in location planning for new urban distribution centers. The proposed approach can be practically applied by logistics operators in deciding on the location of new distribution centers considering the sustainable freight regulations proposed by municipal administrations. A numerical application is provided to illustrate the approach.     

A model for strategic planning under uncertainty

Summary In this paper the multi-period strategic planning problem for a consumer sumer product manufacturing chain is considered. Our discussion is focused on investment decisions which, are economically optimal over the whole planning horizonT, while meeting customer demands and conforming to technological requirements. In strategic planning, time and uncertainty play important roles. The uncertainties in the model are due to different levels of forecast demands, cost estimates and equipment behaviour. The main aim of this paper is to develop and analyse a multiperiod stochastic model representing the entire manufacturing chain, from the acquisitions of raw material to the delivering of final products. The resulting optimization problem is computationally intractable because of the enormous, and sometimes unrealistic, number of scenarios that must be considered in order to identify the optimal planning strategy. We propose two different solution approaches; firstly, we apply a scenario risk analysis giving the related results of experiments on a particular real data set. We then describe and investigate an Integer Stochastic Programming formulation of the problem and propose, as a solution technique, a variation of Benders decomposition method, namely theL-shaped method.     

Integrated supply chain planning under uncertainty using an improved stochastic approach

This paper proposes an integrated model and a modified solution method for solving supply chain network design problems under uncertainty. The stochastic supply chain network design model is provided as a two-stage stochastic program where the two stages in the decision-making process correspond to the strategic and tactical decisions. The uncertainties are mostly found in the tactical stage because most tactical parameters are not fully known when the strategic decisions have to be made. The main uncertain parameters are the operational costs, the customer demand and capacity of the facilities. In the improved solution method, the sample average approximation technique is integrated with the accelerated Benders’ decomposition approach to improvement of the mixed integer linear programming solution phase. The surrogate constraints method will be utilized to acceleration of the decomposition algorithm. A computational study on randomly generated data sets is presented to highlight the efficiency of the proposed solution method. The computational results show that the modified sample average approximation method effectively expedites the computational procedure in comparison with the original approach.     

An indirect Lyapunov approach to robust stabilization for a class of linear fractional-order system with positive real uncertainty

The paper is concerned with the problem of the robust stabilization for a class of fractional order linear systems with positive real uncertainty under Riemann–Liouville (RL) derivatives. Firstly, by utilizing the continuous frequency distributed model of the fractional integrator, the fractional order system is expressed as an infinite dimensional integral order system. And via using indirect Lyapunov approach and linear matrix inequality techniques, sufficient condition for robust asymptotic stability of the fractional order systems and design methods of the state feedback controller are presented. Secondly, by using matrixs singular value decomposition technique the static output feedback controller and observer-based controller for asymptotically stabilizing the fractional order systems are derived. Finally, the validity of the proposed methods are demonstrated by numerical examples.     

Path planning for robots under stochastic uncertainty *

In order to reduce large online measurement and correction expenses, the a priori informations on the random variations of the model parameters of a robot and its working environment are taken into account already at the planning stage. Thus, instead of solving a deterministic path planning problem with a fixed nominal parameter vector, here, the optimal velocity profile along a given trajectory in work space is determined by using a stochastic optimization approach. Especially, the standard polygon of constrained motion-depending on the nominal parameter vector-is replaced by a more general set of admissible motion determined by chance constraints or more general risk constraints. Robust values (with respect to stochastic parameter variations) of the maximum, minimum velocity, acceleration, deceleration, resp., can be obtained then by solving a univariate stochastic optimization problem Considering the fields of extremal trajectories, the minimum-time path planning problem under stochastic uncertainty can be solved now by standard optimal deterministic path planning methods     

Robust hierarchical production planning under uncertainty

We consider aggregation of products with similar characteristics in a two-level hierarchical production planning model. A robust aggregate plan at the upper level is such that, at the lower level, a disaggregation policy exists even when detailed demands may vary within some given bounds. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the robustness of an aggregate plan and obtain a closed form expression of these conditions. A set of more manageable sufficient conditions is also presented.Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Toulouse.     

Production planning under uncertainty in textile manufacturing

Textile manufacturing consists of yarn production, fabric formation, and finishing and dyeing stages. The subject of this paper is the yarn production planning problem, although the approach is directly applicable to the fabric production planning problem due to similarities in the respective models. Our experience at an international textile manufacturer indicates that demand uncertainty is a major challenge in developing yarn production plans. We develop a stochastic programming model that explicitly includes uncertainty in the form of discrete demand scenarios. This results in a large-scale mixed integer model that is difficult to solve with off-the-shelf commercial solvers. We develop a two-step preprocessing algorithm that improves the linear programming relaxation of the model and reduces its size, consequently improving the computational requirements. We illustrate the benefits of a stochastic programming approach over a deterministic model and share our initial application experience.     

Inexact de Novo programming for water resources systems planning

This study presents an interval de Novo programming (IDNP) approach for the design of optimal water-resources-management systems under uncertainty. The model is derived by incorporating the existing interval programming and de Novo programming, allowing uncertainties represented as intervals within the optimization framework. The developed IDNP approach has the advantages in constructing optimal system design via an ideal system by introducing the flexibility toward the available resources in the system constraints. A simple numerical example is introduced to illustrate the IDNP approach. The IDNP is then applied to design an inexact optimal system with budget limit instead of finding the optimum in a given system with fixed resources in a water resources planning case. The results demonstrate that the developed method efficiently produces stable solutions under different objectives. Optimal supplies of good-quality water are obtained in considering different revenue targets of municipal–industrial–agricultural competition under a given budget.     

Portfolio selection under model uncertainty: a penalized moment-based optimization approach

We present a new approach that enables investors to seek a reasonably robust policy for portfolio selection in the presence of rare but high-impact realization of moment uncertainty. In practice, portfolio managers face difficulty in seeking a balance between relying on their knowledge of a reference financial model and taking into account possible ambiguity of the model. Based on the concept of Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO), we introduce a new penalty framework that provides investors flexibility to define prior reference models using the distributional information of the first two moments and accounts for model ambiguity in terms of extreme moment uncertainty. We show that in our approach a globally-optimal portfolio can in general be obtained in a computationally tractable manner. We also show that for a wide range of specifications our proposed model can be recast as semidefinite programs. Computational experiments show that our penalized moment-based approach outperforms classical DRO approaches in terms of both average and downside-risk performance using historical data.     

Robust solutions and risk measures for a supply chain planning problem under uncertainty

We consider a strategic supply chain planning problem formulated as a two-stage stochastic integer programming (SIP) model. The strategic decisions include site locations, choices of production, packing and distribution lines, and the capacity increment or decrement policies. The SIP model provides a practical representation of real-world discrete resource allocation problems in the presence of future uncertainties which arise due to changes in the business and economic environment. Such models that consider the future scenarios (along with their respective probabilities) not only identify optimal plans for each scenario, but also determine a hedged strategy for all the scenarios. We

1. 1)
   exploit the natural decomposable structure of the SIP problem through Benders’ decomposition,
    
2. 2)
   approximate the probability distribution of the random variables using the generalized lambda distribution, and
    
3. 3)
   through simulations, calculate the performance statistics and the risk measures for the two models, namely the expected-value and the here-and-now.
    

     

Tool capacity planning for semiconductor fabrication facilities under demand uncertainty

This research is motivated by issues faced by a large manufacturer of semiconductor devices. Semiconductor manufacturing companies allocate millions of dollars every year for new types of machine tools for their facilities. Typically these are special purpose machine tools which are made to order. The rate of change in products and technology makes it difficult for manufacturers to have a good estimate of future tool requirements. Further, manufacturers experience a long lead time while procuring these tools. In this paper, we model the tool capacity planning problem under uncertainty in demand. The number of tools required in a facility is sufficiently large (nearly hundred or more tools) to make it nearly impossible to obtain efficient exact algorithms. We provide heuristics to find efficient tool procurement plans and test their quality using lower bounds on the formulation.     

Distributionally robust scheduling on parallel machines under moment uncertainty

This paper investigates a distributionally robust scheduling problem on identical parallel machines, where job processing times are stochastic without any exact distributional form. Based on a distributional set specified by the support and estimated moments information, we present a min-max distributionally robust model, which minimizes the worst-case expected total flow time out of all probability distributions in this set. Our model doesn’t require exact probability distributions which are the basis for many stochastic programming models, and utilizes more information compared to the interval-based robust optimization models. Although this problem originates from the manufacturing environment, it can be applied to many other fields when the machines and jobs are endowed with different meanings. By optimizing the inner maximization subproblem, the min-max formulation is reduced to an integer second-order cone program. We propose an exact algorithm to solve this problem via exploring all the solutions that satisfy the necessary optimality conditions. Computational experiments demonstrate the high efficiency of this algorithm since problem instances with 100 jobs are optimized in a few seconds. In addition, simulation results convincingly show that the proposed distributionally robust model can hedge against the bias of estimated moments and enhance the robustness of production systems.     

Effective program planning for multiple projects under limited resources

This work deals with an analytical approach to effective planning based upon the relative economics of projects contained in a program. A mathematical model is formulated to maximize the total return over the planning horizon subject to various annual cash flow and resource constraints. Stochastic mixed-integer programming is applied to determine the optimal sequence of project planning activities. To illustrate the use of the proposed procedure, a numerical example is solved using the mathematical programming software package SCICONIC/VM in a VAX-11/750 computer system.     

SOCRATES: A system for scheduling hydroelectric generation under uncertainty

The Pacific Gas and Electric Company, the largest investor-owned energy utility in the United States, obtains a significant fraction of its electric energy and capacity from hydrogeneration. Although hydro provides valuable flexibility, it is subject to usage limits and must be carefully scheduled. In addition, the amount of energy available from hydro varies widely from year to year, depending on precipitation and streamflows. Optimal scheduling of hydrogeneration, in coordination with other energy sources, is a stochastic problem of practical significance to PG&E. SOCRATES is a system for the optimal scheduling of PG&E's various energy sources over a one- to two-year horizon. This paper concentrates on the component of SOCRATES that schedules hydro. The core is a stochastic optimization model, solved using Benders decomposition. Additional components are streamflow forecasting models and a database containing hydrological information. The stochastic hydro scheduling module of SOCRATES is undergoing testing in the user's environment, and we expect PG&E hydrologists and hydro schedulers to place progressively more reliance upon it.     

Two-stage workforce planning under demand fluctuations and uncertainty

We address a multi-category workforce planning problem for functional areas located at different service centres, each having office-space and recruitment capacity constraints, and facing fluctuating and uncertain workforce demand. A deterministic model is initially developed to deal with workforce fluctuations based on an expected demand profile over the horizon. To hedge against the demand uncertainty, we also propose a two-stage stochastic program, in which the first stage makes personnel recruiting and allocation decisions, while the second stage reassigns workforce demand among all units. A Benders’ decomposition-based algorithm is designed to solve this two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program. Computational results based on some practical numerical experiments are presented to provide insights on applying the deterministic versus the stochastic programming approach, and to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithm as compared with directly solving the model using its deterministic equivalent.