Recurrence and ergodicity of diffusions

This article attempts to lay a proper foundation for studying asymptotic properties of nonhomogeneous diffusions, extends earlier criteria for transience, recurrence, and positive recurrence, and provides sufficient conditions for the weak convergence of a shifted nonhomogeneous diffusion to a limiting stationary homogenous diffusion. A functional central limit theorem is proved for the class of positive recurrent homogeneous diffusions. Upper and lower functions for positive recurrent nonhomogeneous diffusions are also studied.     

Sample path Large Deviations and optimal importance sampling for stochastic volatility models

Sample path Large Deviation Principles (LDP) of the Freidlin–Wentzell type are derived for a class of diffusions, which govern the price dynamics in common stochastic volatility models from Mathematical Finance. LDP are obtained by relaxing the non-degeneracy requirement on the diffusion matrix in the standard theory of Freidlin and Wentzell. As an application, a sample path LDP is proved for the price process in the Heston stochastic volatility model.     

On the excursion theory for linear diffusions

We present a number of important identities related to the excursion theory of linear diffusions. In particular, excursions straddling an independent exponential time are studied in detail. Letting the parameter of the exponential time tend to zero it is seen that these results connect to the corresponding results for excursions of stationary diffusions (in stationary state). We characterize also the laws of the diffusion prior and posterior to the last zero before the exponential time. It is proved using Krein’s representations that, e.g. the law of the length of the excursion straddling an exponential time is infinitely divisible. As an illustration of the results we discuss the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes.     

Density symmetries for a class of 2-D diffusions with applications to finance

We study densities of two-dimensional diffusion processes with one non-negative component. For such diffusions, the density may explode at the boundary, thus making a precise specification of the boundary condition in the corresponding forward Kolmogorov equation problematic. We overcome this by extending a classical symmetry result for densities of one-dimensional diffusions to our case, thereby reducing the study of forward equations with exploding boundary data to the study of a related backward equation with non-exploding boundary data. We also discuss applications of this symmetry for option pricing in stochastic volatility models and in stochastic short rate models.     

Parametric inference for discretely observed subordinate diffusions

Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes - Subordinate diffusions are constructed by time changing diffusion processes with an independent Lévy subordinator. This is a rich family of...     

Entropy production of stationary diffusions on non-compact Riemannian manifolds

The closed form of the entropy production of stationary diffusion processes with bounded Nelson’s current velocity is given. The limit of the entropy productions of a sequence of reflecting diffusions is also discussed. Project supported by Doctoral Programm Foundation of Institution of Higher Education, the National Natural Science Foundation of China and 863 Programm.     

Optimal capital injection and dividend distribution for growth restricted diffusion models with bankruptcy

We consider the optimal capital injection and dividend control problem for a class of growth restricted diffusions with the possibility of bankruptcy. The surplus process of a company is modeled by a diffusion process with return and volatility being functions of the surplus process. The company can control the dividend payments and capital injections with the goal of maximizing the expectation of the total discounted dividends minus the total cost of capital injections up to the time of bankruptcy. We distinguish three cases and provide optimality results for each case.     

Stationary and multi-self-similar random fields with stochastic volatility

This paper introduces stationary and multi-self-similar random fields which account for stochastic volatility and have type G marginal law. The stationary random fields are constructed using volatility modulated mixed moving average (MA) fields and their probabilistic properties are discussed. Also, two methods for parameterizing the weight functions in the MA representation are presented: one method is based on Fourier techniques and aims at reproducing a given correlation structure, the other method is based on ideas from stochastic partial differential equations. Moreover, using a generalized Lamperti transform we construct volatility modulated multi-self-similar random fields which have type G distribution.     

一类具有扩散的奇异型随机控制的非对称平稳模型

该文讨论了一类奇异型随机控制的平稳模型,其费用结构中的函数不限于偶函数,其状态过程为扩散型且具有“非对称的”(关于原点)漂移及扩散系数.因此,奇异型随机控制中的平稳问题被实质性地推广到更一般的形式。该文求得了与此类问题有关的一个变分方程组的解,并且证明了最佳控制的存在性.     

Invariant distributions and scaling limits for some diffusions in time-varying random environments

We consider a family of one-dimensional diffusions, in dynamical Wiener mediums, which are random perturbations of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck diffusion process. We prove quenched and annealed convergences in distribution and under weigh-ted total variation norms. We find two kind of stationary probability measures, which are either the standard normal distribution or a quasi-invariant measure, depending on the environment, and which is naturally connected to a random dynamical system. We apply these results to the study of a model of time-inhomogeneous Brox’s diffusions, which generalizes the diffusion studied by Brox (Ann Probab 14(4):1206–1218, 1986) and those investigated by Gradinaru and Offret (Ann Inst Henri Poincaré Probab Stat, 2011). We point out two distinct diffusive behaviours and we give the speed of convergences in the quenched situations.     

Testing diffusion processes for non-stationarity

Financial data are often assumed to be generated by diffusions. Using recent results of Fan et al. (J Am Stat Assoc, 102:618–631, 2007; J Financ Econometer, 5:321–357, 2007) and a multiple comparisons procedure created by Benjamini and Hochberg (J R Stat Soc Ser B, 59:289–300, 1995), we develop a test for non-stationarity of a one-dimensional diffusion based on the time inhomogeneity of the diffusion function. The procedure uses a single sample path of the diffusion and involves two estimators, one temporal and one spatial. We first apply the test to simulated data generated from a variety of one-dimensional diffusions. We then apply our test to interest rate data and real exchange rate data. The application to real exchange rate data is of particular interest, since a consequence of the law of one price (or the theory of purchasing power parity) is that real exchange rates should be stationary. With the exception of the GBP/USD real exchange rate, we find evidence that interest rates and real exchange rates are generally non-stationary. The software used to implement the estimation and testing procedure is available on demand and we describe its use in the paper.     

Clustering dynamics in a class of normalised generalised gamma dependent priors

Normalised generalised gamma processes are random probability measures that induce nonparametric prior distributions widely used in Bayesian statistics, particularly for mixture modelling. We construct a class of dependent normalised generalised gamma priors induced by a stationary population model of Moran type, which exploits a generalised Pólya urn scheme associated with the prior. We study the asymptotic scaling for the dynamics of the number of clusters in the sample, which in turn provides a dynamic measure of diversity in the underlying population. The limit is formalised to be a positive non-stationary diffusion process which falls outside well-known families, with unbounded drift and an entrance boundary at the origin. We also introduce a new class of stationary positive diffusions, whose invariant measures are explicit and have power law tails, which approximate weakly the scaling limit.     

A contrast estimator for completely or partially observed hypoelliptic diffusion

Parametric estimation of two-dimensional hypoelliptic diffusions is considered when complete observations–both coordinates discretely observed–or partial observations–only one coordinate observed–are available. Since the volatility matrix is degenerate, Euler contrast estimators cannot be used directly. For complete observations, we introduce an Euler contrast based on the second coordinate only. For partial observations, we define a contrast based on an integrated diffusion resulting from a transformation of the original one. A theoretical study proves that the estimators are consistent and asymptotically Gaussian. A numerical application to Langevin systems illustrates the nice properties of both complete and partial observations’ estimators.     

A Factorisation of Diffusion Measure and Finite Sample Path Constructions

In this paper we introduce decompositions of diffusion measure which are used to construct an algorithm for the exact simulation of diffusion sample paths and of diffusion hitting times of smooth boundaries. We consider general classes of scalar time-inhomogeneous diffusions and certain classes of multivariate diffusions. The methodology presented in this paper is based on a novel construction of the Brownian bridge with known range for its extrema, which is of interest on its own right.      

Posterior consistency via precision operators for Bayesian nonparametric drift estimation in SDEs

We study a Bayesian approach to nonparametric estimation of the periodic drift function of a one-dimensional diffusion from continuous-time data. Rewriting the likelihood in terms of local time of the process, and specifying a Gaussian prior with precision operator of differential form, we show that the posterior is also Gaussian with the precision operator also of differential form. The resulting expressions are explicit and lead to algorithms which are readily implementable. Using new functional limit theorems for the local time of diffusions on the circle, we bound the rate at which the posterior contracts around the true drift function.     

Simulation of conditioned diffusion and application to parameter estimation

In this paper, we propose some algorithms for the simulation of the distribution of certain diffusions conditioned on a terminal point. We prove that the conditional distribution is absolutely continuous with respect to the distribution of another diffusion which is easy for simulation, and the formula for the density is given explicitly. An example of parameter estimation for a Duffing–Van der Pol oscillator is given as an application.     

Goodness-of-fit testing for fractional diffusions

This paper presents a goodness-of-fit test for the volatility function of a SDE driven by a Gaussian process with stationary and centered increments. Under rather weak assumptions on the Gaussian process, we provide a procedure for testing whether the unknown volatility function lies in a given linear functional space or not. This testing problem is highly non-trivial, because the volatility function is not identifiable in our model. The underlying fractional diffusion is assumed to be observed at high frequency on a fixed time interval and the test statistic is based on weighted power variations. Our test statistic is consistent against any fixed alternative.     

Mean stochastic comparison of diffusions

Summary Stochastic bounds are derived for one dimensional diffusions (and somewhat more general random processes) by dominating one process pathwise by a convex combination of other processes. The method permits comparison of diffusions with different diffusion coefficients. One interpretation of the bounds is that an optimal control is identified for certain diffusions with controlled drift and diffusion coefficients, when the reward function is convex. An example is given to show how the bounds and the Liapunov function technique can be applied to yield bounds for multidimensional diffusions.This work was supported by the Office of Naval Research under Contract N00014-82-K-0359 and the U.S. Army Research Office under Contract DAAG29-82-K-0091 (administered through the University of California at Berkeley).     

Weak convergence of Markov chain sampling methods and annealing algorithms to diffusions

Simulated annealing algorithms have traditionally been developed and analyzed along two distinct lines: Metropolis-type Markov chain algorithms and Langevin-type Markov diffusion algorithms. Here, we analyze the dynamics of continuous state Markov chains which arise from a particular implementation of the Metropolis and heat-bath Markov chain sampling methods. It is shown that certain continuous-time interpolations of the Metropolis and heat-bath chains converge weakly to Langevin diffusions running at different time scales. This exposes a close and potentially useful relationship between the Markov chain and diffusion versions of simulated annealing.The research reported here has been supported by the Whirlpool Foundation, by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under Contract 89-0276, and by the Army Research Office under Contract DAAL-03-86-K-0171 (Center for Intelligent Control Systems).     

High-order approximation of Pearson diffusion processes

This paper focuses on Pearson diffusions and the spectral high-order approximation of their related Fokker–Planck equations. The Pearson diffusions is a class of diffusions defined by linear drift and quadratic squared diffusion coefficient. They are widely used in the physical and chemical sciences, engineering, rheology, environmental sciences and financial mathematics. In recent years diffusion models have been studied analytically and numerically primarily through the solution of stochastic differential equations. Analytical solutions have been derived for some of the Pearson diffusions, including the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck, Cox–Ingersoll–Ross and Jacobi processes. However, analytical investigations and computations for diffusions with so-called heavy-tailed ergodic distributions are more difficult to perform. The novelty of this research is the development of an accurate and efficient numerical method to solve the Fokker–Planck equations associated with Pearson diffusions with different boundary conditions. Comparisons between the numerical predictions and available time-dependent and equilibrium analytical solutions are made. The solution of the Fokker–Planck equation is approximated using a reduced basis spectral method. The advantage of this approach is that many models for pricing options in financial mathematics cannot be expressed in terms of a stochastic partial differential equation and therefore one has to resort to solving Fokker–Planck type equations.