离散的SI和SIS传染病模型的研究

为了描述个体的死亡、染病者的恢复以及疾病的传染,引入了相应的概率.基于总种群中个体数量为常数的假设,根据染病者能否恢复分别建立了具有生命动力学的离散SI和SIS传染病模型.所得到的结果显示:它们具有与相应连续模型相同的动力学性态,并确定了各自的阈值.在它们的阈值之下,传染病最终将灭绝;在它们的阈值之上,传染病将会发展成为地方病,染病者的数量将趋向于一确定的正常数.     

一些组合地图新算法的实现

本文主要讨论组合地图列举问题.刘的一部专著中提出了一个判定两个地图是否同构的算法.该算法的时间复杂度为O(m2),其中m为下图的规模.在此基础上,本文给出一个用于地图列举以及进而计算任意连通下图的地图亏格分布的通用算法.本文所得结果比之前文献中所给结果更优.     

高中数学专题研究的一个案例──关于沪闵路─春申路口红绿灯时间设置合理性的研究

一、专题的背景与分析 　　1. 背景 　　闵行区的沪闵路─春申路口是交通特别拥挤的交叉路口之一.家住莘庄地区的同学有一个共同的感受,在他们到校或回家路上必经的沪闵路─春申路口时常遇到塞车现象.……     

报童模型及ARMA预测在航空配餐问题中的应用

航班承载人数的不确定性,造成航空公司在配餐中利润的流失,现存的配餐模式存在较多的浪费.本文利用基于损失厌恶的报童模型和ARMA时间序列分析模型对深圳航空公司某航班的配餐份数进行了建模分析和预测,并通过对两种模型输出的比较,得出了长期预测与短期预测的模型应用理论.将实际的历史数据代人到模型中验证,其结果优于经验模式下的配餐盈利情况.本文所采用的研究方法和研究结果对航空公司的精益发展有建设性的意义.     

巧解一道"牛吃草"问题

"牛吃草"问题又称为消长问题,是17世纪英国伟大的科学家牛顿提出来的.典型牛吃草问题的条件是假设草的生长速度固定不变,不同头数的牛吃光同一片草地所需的天数各不相同,求若干头牛吃这片草地可以吃多少天.由于吃的天数不同,草又是天天在生长的,所以草的存量随吃的天数不断地变化.……     

大钟与六位密码

福尔摩西接到电话的时候正在翻看一本关于城中富翁艾伦王的传奇故事。艾伦王年少时靠贩卖廉价的小闹钟起家,经过几十年的辛勤努力,把自己的事业拓展成了最有名的钟表公司,是本市最有名的富翁。艾伦王年纪已经很大了,身体也不好。他的儿女众多,但是他们和艾伦王的关系并不融洽。大家都猜测他们对艾伦王的财富虎视眈眈。"喂,福尔摩西吗?"约翰焦急的声音从电话那头传过来。"是我。"福尔摩西回应道。     

Drucker-Prager准则可靠度解析

视岩体强度参数为正态分布随机变量,以可靠度理论为基础,推导了Drucker-Prager准则可靠度判别的解析表达式,并通过Monte-Carlo法和一次可靠度方法验证了其正确性.应用所得到的公式分析了岩体强度参数的变异性对屈服准则判别结果的影响.结果表明,强度参数的变异性对Drucker-Prager准则可靠概率的影响程度不尽相同,在变异系数较大的情况下,它们对可靠概率的影响显著,不可忽略.为岩体屈服的可靠度判别提供了一条新思路.     

导数在高考命题中的"五大"热点

导数作为大学的重要内容,进入中学数学教材后,给传统的内容注入了生机与活力,为中学数学命题的研究提供了新视角,新方法.由于导数是研究函数性质的一个很好的工具,它的用途十分广泛,它在解决函数、不等式、解析几何等问题有独到的功能.因此,近几年的高考正逐年加大对导数问题的考查力度,本文通过对07年全国各地高考题的整理和分析寻找命题规律,希望能对今后的教学提供一点复习思路.……     

股票收益率和新息的尾部估计

利用极值理论来考虑上证综指收益率的尾部.为了选择合理的超越门限,采用平均剩余函数和De-Haan矩估计相结合的方法.在学生t分布和广义误差分布的新患假设下,用GARCH和EGARCH新息的ARMA模型拟合指数收益率,并且使用极值理论的极大似然方法估计模型残差的尾指,估计结果表明收益率的尾指和模型的残差尾指基本一致.     

运用新课程的理念提高数学复习课的课堂效率

如何提高数学复习课的教学效率?这是当前数学教学中值得研究的问题."复习",如果只是基础知识的简单罗列,难免使学生厌倦;如果只是习题解法的演示,又会令学生深陷题海无所适从……,对复习课的目标和功能的认识,决定了复习课内容的选择、教学的模式和教学的效果.     

Convergence of densities of some functionals of Gaussian processes

The aim of this paper is to establish the uniform convergence of the densities of a sequence of random variables, which are functionals of an underlying Gaussian process, to a normal density. Precise estimates for the uniform distance are derived by using the techniques of Malliavin calculus, combined with Stein?s method for normal approximation. We need to assume some non-degeneracy conditions. First, the study is focused on random variables in a fixed Wiener chaos, and later, the results are extended to the uniform convergence of the derivatives of the densities and to the case of random vectors in some fixed chaos, which are uniformly non-degenerate in the sense of Malliavin calculus. Explicit upper bounds for the uniform norm are obtained for random variables in the second Wiener chaos, and an application to the convergence of densities of the least square estimator for the drift parameter in Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes is discussed.     

Numerical Methods for Computing Plausibility and Belief Distributions of Consequences of a Subjective Model of Object of Research

Numerical methods for computing plausibility and belief distributions of consequences of a subjective model are considered. More precisely, related constrained optimization problems are studied. Error estimates of the proposed algorithms are obtained. Techniques for taking into account the information about the consequence available to the researcher for improving the accuracy of computations are discussed.     

Monte Carlo study of time asymptotics of the polarized radiation intensity

The parameters of time asymptotics of the polarized radiation intensity are estimated. Precision Monte Carlo estimates of these parameters are derived for finite medium layers by iterating the resolvent of the corresponding transfer operator with a given scattering matrix and by evaluating parametric time derivatives. The computations are performed for two versions of the problem: with a Rayleigh scattering matrix and an aerosol scattering matrix. It is shown that the asymptotics of the radiation intensity are affected by polarization, except for the spatially homogeneous problem, for which the results are obtained analytically.     

On the boundedness of outer polyhedral estimates for reachable sets of linear systems

New properties of outer polyhedral (parallelepipedal) estimates for reachable sets of linear differential systems are studied. For systems with a stable matrix, it is determined what the orientation matrices are for which the estimates possessing the generalized semigroup property are bounded/unbounded on an infinite time interval. In particular, criteria are found (formulated in terms of the eigenvalues of the system’s matrix and the properties of bounding sets) that guarantee for previously mentioned tangent estimates and estimates with a constant orientation matrix that either there are initial orientation matrices for which the corresponding estimate tubes are bounded or all these tubes are unbounded. For linear stationary systems, a system of ordinary differential equations and algebraic relations is derived that determines estimates with constant orientation matrices for reachable sets that have no generalized semigroup property but are tangent and also bounded if the matrix of the system is stable.     

Fuzzy理论在工程环境灾害预测中的应用

针对矿山大型排土场所出现的滑坡等工程环境灾害的预测与防治问题,着重探讨排土场边坡失稳破坏预测问题.文中采用Fuzzy数学中的Fuzzy概率测度理论建立理论预测分析模型,并对大型排土场边坡失稳破坏的Fuzzy概率测度进行具体的预测分析,所获结果与已有的经典分析方法所获理论结果一致.针对矿山大型排土场所出现的滑坡等工程环境灾害防治问题,提出了具体的防治技术措施.     

Convergence of classes of subpramarts and games which become better with time

In this paper local convergence theorems for subpramarts and GBTs (games which become better with time) are presented. These results are also new for Martingales. Global convergence theorems for subpramarts and GBTs are also proved. These theorems are related to the theory of optimal stopping.     

递推数列极限的证明与计算

用差分方程理论中的基本思想,阐述有关递推数列常见题型的证明与计算方法,并通过实例加以说明．     

The use of analysis of variance procedures in biological studies

The analysis of variance (ANOVA) is widely used in biological studies, yet there remains considerable confusion among researchers about the interpretation of hypotheses being tested. Ambiguities arise when statistical designs are unbalanced, and in particular when not all combinations of design factors are represented in the data. This paper clarifies the relationship among hypothesis testing, statistical modelling and computing procedures in ANOVA for unbalanced data. A simple two-factor fixed effects design is used to illustrate three common parametrizations for ANOVA models, and some associations among these parametrizations are developed. Biologically meaningful hypotheses for main effects and interactions are given in terms of each parametrization, and procedures for testing the hypotheses are described. The standard statistical computing procedures in ANOVA are given along with their corresponding hypotheses. Throughout the development unbalanced designs are assumed and attention is given to problems that arise with missing cells.     

Approximation of a fractional power of an elliptic operator

Some mathematical models of applied problems lead to the need of solving boundary value problems with a fractional power of an elliptic operator. In a number of works, approximations of such a nonlocal operator are constructed on the basis of an integral representation with a singular integrand. In the present article, new integral representations are proposed for operators with fractional powers. Approximations are based on the classical quadrature formulas. The results of numerical experiments on the accuracy of quadrature formulas are presented. The proposed approximations are used for numerical solving a model two‐dimensional boundary value problem for fractional diffusion.     

Calculation of effective moduli of composite materials

Effective properties of composite and porous materials are determined by using an approach based on two-scale asymptotic expansions. Explicit approximate formulas are derived for the effective moduli of composite and porous materials of elongated structures. A numerical method is proposed for finding solutions to cell problems, which are used to determine “exact” effective moduli. Examples are computed for a two-dimensional porous medium with variously shaped pores and various degrees of “elongation.” The effective moduli produced by the explicit approximate formulas prove to be similar to those found by numerically solving cell problems.