Full predictivistic modeling of stock market data: Application to change point problems

In change point problems in general we should answer three questions: how many changes are there? Where are they? And, what is the distribution of the data within the blocks? In this paper, we develop a new full predictivistic approach for modeling observations within the same block of observation and consider the product partition model (PPM) for treating the change point problem. The PPM brings more flexibility into the change point problem because it considers the number of changes and the instants when the changes occurred as random variables. A full predictivistic characterization of the model can provide a more tractable way to elicit the prior distribution of the parameters of interest, once prior opinions will be required only about observable quantities. We also present an application to the problem of identifying multiple change points in the mean and variance of a stock market return time series.     

Estimator of a change point in single index models

This paper considers the problem of change point in single index models. In order to obtain asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the estimation of the change point, the convergence rate and asymptotic distribution of the change point estimate is studied. Some simulation results are presented which show that the numerical performance of our estimator is satisfactory.     

Consistency of change point estimators for symmetrical stable distribution with parameters shift

Assume that the characteristic indexαof stable distribution satisfies 1<α<2,and that the distribution is symmetrical about its mean.We consider the change point estimators for stable distribution withαor scale parameterβshift.For the one case that mean is a known constant,ifαorβchanges,then density function will change too.To this end,we suppose the kernel estimation for a change point.For the other case that mean is an unknown constant,we suppose to apply empirical characteristic function to estimate the change-point location.In the two cases,we consider the consistency and strong convergence rate of estimators.Furthermore,we consider the mean shift case.If mean changes,then corresponding characteristic function will change too.To this end,we also apply empirical characteristic function to estimate change point.We obtain the similar convergence rate.Finally,we consider its application on the detection of mean shift in financial market.     

Application of MCMC to change point detection

A nonstandard approach to change point estimation is presented in this paper. Three models with random coefficients and Bayesian approach are used for modelling the year average temperatures measured in Prague Klementinum. The posterior distribution of the change point and other parameters are estimated from the random samples generated by the combination of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the Gibbs sampler. (Supplement to the special issue of Appl. Math. 53 (2008), No. 3) The work is a part of the research project MSM 0021620839 financed by MŠMT. It was partially supported by grant GAČR 201/06/0186 (for the first author) and grant GAUK 135007-B (for the second author).