Asymptotic properties of particle filter-based maximum likelihood estimators for state space models

We study the asymptotic performance of approximate maximum likelihood estimators for state space models obtained via sequential Monte Carlo methods. The state space of the latent Markov chain and the parameter space are assumed to be compact. The approximate estimates are computed by, firstly, running possibly dependent particle filters on a fixed grid in the parameter space, yielding a pointwise approximation of the log-likelihood function. Secondly, extensions of this approximation to the whole parameter space are formed by means of piecewise constant functions or B-spline interpolation, and approximate maximum likelihood estimates are obtained through maximization of the resulting functions. In this setting we formulate criteria for how to increase the number of particles and the resolution of the grid in order to produce estimates that are consistent and asymptotically normal.     

Asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators from dependent observations

This paper provides a proof, based on the inverse function theorem, for the existence and uniqueness of a consistent solution of maximum likelihood equations.     

Asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimator for two-step logit models

Two-step logit models are extensions of the ordinary logistic regression model, which are designed for complex ordinal outcomes commonly seen in practice. In this paper, we establish some asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the regression parameter vector under some mild conditions, which include existence of the MLE, convergence rate and asymptotic normality of the MLE. We relax the boundedness condition of the regressors required in most existing theoretical results, and all conditions are easy to verify.     

Asymptotic behavior of maximum likelihood estimators in a branching diffusion model

In this paper the consistency and asymptotic normality of maximum-likelihood estimations for a super-critical branching diffusion model are obtained under certain conditions on its drift, variance and reproduction law. We proceeded by first studying the limit behavior of the Fisher information measure and related processes, and then verifying conditions established in Barndorff-Nielsen and Sørensen (Int stat Rev 62:133–165, 1994). This in turn uses the Martingale Law of Large Numbers as well as the Martingale Central Limit Theorem.     

Sharp rates of convergence of maximum likelihood estimators in nonparametric models

Summary Sharp rates of convergence of maximum likelihood estimators are established in models which are defined by probability densities having bounded derivatives. This result is achieved by making use of local properties of the empirical distribution function.     

Convergence results for maximum likelihood type estimators in multivariable ARMA models

General convergence results for maximum likelihood type estimators in multivariable ARMA-models under very weak assumptions are given. This extends results by Dunsmuir and Hannan (1976, Advan. Appl. Probab. 8 339–364) and Deistler, Dunsmuir, and Hannan (1978, Advan. Appl. Probab. 10 360–372). In particular it is shown that consistency can be achieved without imposing a certain assumption used in Dunsmuir and Hannan which is related to the zeroes of the spectral density if one is willing to make stronger assumptions concerning the probabilistic structure of the process.     

Efficiency of profile likelihood in semi-parametric models

Profile likelihood is a popular method of estimation in the presence of an infinite-dimensional nuisance parameter, as the method reduces the infinite-dimensional estimation problem to a finite-dimensional one. In this paper we investigate the efficiency of a semi-parametric maximum likelihood estimator based on the profile likelihood. By introducing a new parametrization, we improve on the seminal work of Murphy and van der Vaart (J Am Stat Assoc, 95: 449–485, 2000): our improvement establishes the efficiency of the estimator through the direct quadratic expansion of the profile likelihood, which requires fewer assumptions. To illustrate the method an application to two-phase outcome-dependent sampling design is given.     

Asymptotic expansions and higher order properties of semi-parametric estimators in a system of simultaneous equations

Asymptotic expansions are made for the distributions of the Maximum Empirical Likelihood (MEL) estimator and the Estimating Equation (EE) estimator (or the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) in econometrics) for the coefficients of a single structural equation in a system of linear simultaneous equations, which corresponds to a reduced rank regression model. The expansions in terms of the sample size, when the non-centrality parameters increase proportionally, are carried out to O(n⁻¹). Comparisons of the distributions of the MEL and GMM estimators are made. Also, we relate the asymptotic expansions of the distributions of the MEL and GMM estimators to the corresponding expansions for the Limited Information Maximum Likelihood (LIML) and the Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimators. We give useful information on the higher order properties of alternative estimators including the semi-parametric inefficiency factor under the homoscedasticity assumption.     

Convergence results for maximum likelihood type estimators in multivariable ARMA models II

The consistency proof for the (Gaussian quasi) maximum likelihood estimator in multivariable ARMA models as given in Dunsmuir and Hannan (1976, Adv, in Appl. Probab. 8, 339–364) rests on a certain property of the underlying parameter space, called B6 in their paper. It is not known whether the usual parameter spaces like the manifold M(n) or the parameter spaces corresponding to echelon forms satisfy condition B6, since the argument given by Dunsmuir and Hannan to establish this fact is inconclusive. In Pötscher (1987, J. Multivariate Anal. 21 29–52) it was shown how consistency can be proved without relying on B6 if the data generating process is Gaussian. In this note we show that the Gaussianity assumption can be replaced by ergodicity thus restoring Dunsmuir and Hannan's consistency proof to its full generality and extending it to parameter spaces which do not satisfy condition B6.     

Asymptotic expansions of maximum likelihood estimators for small diffusions via the theory of Malliavin-Watanabe

Summary The asymptotic expansions of the probability distributions of statistics for the small diffusion are derived by means of the Malliavin calculus. From this the second order efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimator is proved.The research was supported in part by Grant-in-Aid for Encouragement of Young Scientists from the Ministry of Education, Science and Culture     

Asymptotic properties of a maximum likelihood estimator with data from a Gaussian process

We consider an estimation problem with observations from a Gaussian process. The problem arises from a stochastic process modeling of computer experiments proposed recently by Sacks, Schiller, and Welch. By establishing various representations and approximations to the corresponding log-likelihood function, we show that the maximum likelihood estimator of the identifiable parameter θσ² is strongly consistent and converges weakly (when normalized by √n) to a normal random variable, whose variance does not depend on the selection of sample points. Some extensions to regression models are also obtained.     

Improving on the maximum likelihood estimators of the means in Poisson decomposable graphical models

In this article we study the simultaneous estimation of the means in Poisson decomposable graphical models. We derive some classes of estimators which improve on the maximum likelihood estimator under the normalized squared losses. Our estimators are based on the argument in Chou [Simultaneous estimation in discrete multivariate exponential families, Ann. Statist. 19 (1991) 314-328.] and shrink the maximum likelihood estimator depending on the marginal frequencies of variables forming a complete subgraph of the conditional independence graph.     

Third order asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators for Gaussian ARMA processes

In this paper we investigate various third-order asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators for Gaussian ARMA processes by the third-order Edgeworth expansions of the sampling distributions. We define a third-order asymptotic efficiency by the highest probability concentration around the true value with respect to the third-order Edgeworth expansion. Then we show that the maximum likelihood estimator is not always third-order asymptotically efficient in the class A₃ of third-order asymptotically median unbiased estimators. But, if we confine our discussions to an appropriate class D (⊂ A₃) of estimators, we can show that appropriately modified maximum likelihood estimator is always third-order asymptotically efficient in D.     

Asymptotic properties of conditional maximum likelihood estimator in a certain exponential model

The conditional maximum likelihood estimator is suggested as an alternative to the maximum likelihood estimator and is favorable for an estimator of a dispersion parameter in the normal distribution, the inverse-Gaussian distribution, and so on. However, it is not clear whether the conditional maximum likelihood estimator is asymptotically efficient in general. Consider the case where it is asymptotically efficient and its asymptotic covariance depends only on an objective parameter in an exponential model. This remand implies that the exponential model possesses a certain parallel foliation. In this situation, this paper investigates asymptotic properties of the conditional maximum likelihood estimator and compares the conditional maximum likelihood estimator with the maximum likelihood estimator. We see that the bias of the former is more robust than that of the latter and that two estimators are very close, especially in the sense of bias-corrected version. The mean Pythagorean relation is also discussed.     

Asymptotic properties of wavelet estimators in partially linear errors-in-variables models with long-memory errors

While the random errors are a function of Gaussian random variables that are stationary and long dependent, we investigate a partially linear errors-in-variables (EV) model by the wavelet method. Under general conditions, we obtain asymptotic representation of the parametric estimator, and asymptotic distributions and weak convergence rates of the parametric and nonparametric estimators. At last, the validity of the wavelet method is illuminated by a simulation example and a real example.     

Asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimate in the first order autoregressive process

Summary In this paper we obtain an asymptotic expansion of the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) based onT observations from the first order Gaussian process up to the term of orderT ⁻¹. The expansion is used to compare with a generalized estimate including the least square estimate (LSE) , based on the asymptotic probabilities around the true value of the estimates up to the terms of orderT ⁻¹. It is shown that (or the modified MLE ) is better than (or the modified estimate ). Further, we note that does not attain the bound for third order asymptotic median unbiased estimates.     

部分线性变系数模型Backfitting估计的渐近性质

作为部分线性模型与变系数模型的推广,部分线性变系数模型是一类应用广泛的数据分析模型.利用Backfitting方法拟合这类特殊的可加模型,可得到模型中常值系数估计量的精确解析表达式,该估计量被证明是n~(1/2)相合的.最后通过数值模拟考察了所提估计方法的有效性.     

Quasi-maximum likelihood estimators in generalized linear models with autoregressive processes

The paper studies a generalized linear model(GLM)y_t = h(x_t~T β) + ε_t,t = l,2,...,n,where ε_1 = η_1,ε_1 =ρε_t +η_t,t = 2,3,...;n,h is a continuous differentiable function,η_t's are independent and identically distributed random errors with zero mean and finite variance σ~2.Firstly,the quasi-maximum likelihood(QML) estimators of β,p and σ~2 are given.Secondly,under mild conditions,the asymptotic properties(including the existence,weak consistency and asymptotic distribution) of the QML estimators are investigated.Lastly,the validity of method is illuminated by a simulation example.