Peeling Layers of an Onion: Inventory Model with Multiple Delivery Modes and Forecast Updates

This paper is concerned with a periodic review inventory system with fast and slow delivery modes and regular demand forecast updates. At the beginning of each period, on-hand inventory and demand information are updated. At the same time, decisions on how much to order using fast and slow delivery modes are made. Fast and slow orders are delivered at the end of the current and the next periods, respectively. It is shown that there exists an optimal Markov policy and that it is a modified base-stock policy.     

Using aggregate fill rate for dynamic scheduling of multi-class systems

For dynamic scheduling of multi-class systems where backorder cost is incurred per unit backordered regardless of the time needed to satisfy backordered demand, the following models are considered: the cost model to minimize the sum of expected average inventory holding and backorder costs and the service model to minimize expected average inventory holding cost under an aggregate fill rate constraint. Use of aggregate fill rate constraint in the service model instead of an individual fill rate constraint for each class is justified by deriving equivalence relations between the considered cost and service models. Based on the numerical investigation that the optimal policy for the cost model is a base-stock policy with switching curves and fixed base-stock levels, an alternative service model is considered over the class of base-stock controlled dynamic scheduling policies to minimize the total inventory (base-stock) investment under an aggregate fill rate constraint. The policy that solves this alternative model is proposed as an approximation of the optimal policy of the original cost and the equivalent service models. Very accurate heuristics are devised to approximate the proposed policy for given base-stock levels. Comparison with base-stock controlled First Come First Served (FCFS) and Longest Queue (LQ) policies and an extension of LQ policy (Δ policy) shows that the proposed policy performs much better to solve the service models under consideration, especially when the traffic intensity is high.     

The influence of demand variability on the performance of a make-to-stock queue

Variability, in general, has a deteriorating effect on the performance of stochastic inventory systems. In particular, previous results indicate that demand variability causes a performance degradation in terms of inventory related costs when production capacity is unlimited. In order to investigate the effects of demand variability in capacitated production settings, we analyze a make-to-stock queue with general demand arrival times operated according to a base-stock policy. We show that when demand inter-arrival distributions are ordered in a stochastic sense, increased arrival time variability indeed leads to an augmentation of optimal base-stock levels and to a corresponding increase in optimal inventory related costs. We quantify these effects through several numerical examples.     

在预报更新的环境下具有两种配送方式的供应链模型

本文研究在预报更新环境下具有快、慢两种配送方式和需求预报更新的库存系统，为了得到更多关于费用参数和预报改进对最优定货量以及最优的平均费用的影响，我们考虑两个周期的情形．以动态规划为工具我们得到了系统的最优策略．对于需求预报服从均匀分布情形，本文得到了最优定货量和最优的平均总费用的精确表达式．我们通过一些数值例子来说明库存费用、罚金、需求的预报改进和预报误差对最优定货量和最优的     

Integrating inventory control and a price change in the presence of reference price effects: a two-period model

Demand and procurement planning for consumer electronics products must cope with short life cycles, limited replenishment opportunities and a willingness to pay that is influenced by past prices and decreases over time. We therefore propose the use of an integrated pricing and inventory control model with a two-period linear demand model, in which demand also depends on the difference between a price-history-based reference price and the current price. For this model we prove that the optimal joint pricing/inventory policy for the replenishment opportunity after the first period is a base-stock list-price policy. That is, stock is either replenished up to a base-stock level and a list-price is charged, or it is not replenished and a discount is given that increases with the stock-level. Furthermore, we use real-world cell phone data to study the differences between an integrated policy and traditional sequential optimization, where prices are initially optimized based on the expected demand and ordering cost, and the resulting demand distribution is used to determine an optimal inventory policy. Finally, we discuss possible extensions of the model.     

Joint pricing and inventory replenishment decisions with returns and expediting

We study a single-item periodic-review model for the joint pricing and inventory replenishment problem with returns and expediting. Demand in consecutive periods are independent random variables and their distributions are price sensitive. At the end of each period, after the demand is realized, a buyer can return excess stocks to a supplier. Or, if there are stockouts, the buyer can place an expediting order at the supplier to reduce the amount of shortage. Unfilled demands are fully backlogged. We characterize the optimal dynamic policy that determines the pricing, inventory replenishment, and adjustment decisions in each period so that the total expected discounted profit is maximized. For a very general stochastic demand function, we can show that the optimal replenishment policy is a modified base-stock policy, the optimal pricing policy is a modified base-stock-list-price policy, and the optimal policy for inventory adjustment follows a dual-threshold policy. We further study the operational effect of returns and expediting. Analytical and numerical results demonstrate that returns and expediting lead to a significant profit increase in a number of situations, including limited supply capacity, sufficient flexibility of the expediting order, high demand uncertainty, and a price-sensitive market.     

Analysis of a two-echelon inventory system with two supply modes

In this paper, we consider a serial two-echelon periodic review inventory system with two supply modes at the most upstream stock point. As control policy for this system, we propose a natural extension of the dual-index policy, which has three base-stock levels. We consider the minimization of long run average inventory holding, backlogging, and both per unit and fixed emergency ordering costs. We provide nested newsboy characterizations for two of the three base-stock levels involved and show a separability result for the difference with the remaining base-stock level. We extend results for the single-echelon system to efficiently approximate the distributions of random variables involved in the newsboy equations and find an asymptotically correct approximation for both the per unit and fixed emergency ordering costs. Based on these results, we provide an algorithm for setting base-stock levels in a computationally efficient manner. In a numerical study, we investigate the value of dual-sourcing in supply chains and illustrate that dual-sourcing can lead to significant cost savings in cases with high demand uncertainty, high backlogging cost or long lead times.     

A comparison of inventory policies for perishable goods

Past research on inventory management of perishables introduced models in which demand is sensitive to the age of the product. For such models, we prove that a fixed-order quantity policy is optimal under certain conditions and show that its expected cost is closer to optimal than that of the base-stock level policy when there is demand for units of all ages. We also show numerically when substituting older products to fulfill the demand for new (or vice versa) is beneficial.     

Optimal integrated production and inventory control of an assemble-to-order system with multiple non-unitary demand classes

We study a pure assemble-to-order system subject to multiple demand classes where customer orders arrive according to a compound Poisson process. The finished product is assembled from m different components that are produced on m distinct production facilities in a make-to-stock fashion. We show that the optimal production policy of each component is a state-dependent base-stock policy and the optimal inventory allocation policy is a multi-level state-dependent rationing policy. Using numerical experimentation, we first study the system behavior as a function of order size variability and order size. We show that the optimal average cost rate is more sensitive to order size variability than to order size. We also compare the optimal policy to the first-come first-serve policy and show that there is great benefit to inventory rationing. We also propose two simple heuristics and show that these can effectively mimic the optimal policy which is generally much more difficult to determine and, especially, to implement.     

Periodic review lost-sales inventory models with compound Poisson demand and constant lead times of any length

In almost all literature on inventory models with lost sales and periodic reviews the lead time is assumed to be either an integer multiple of or less than the review period. In a lot of practical settings such restrictions are not satisfied. We develop new models allowing constant lead times of any length when demand is compound Poisson. Besides an optimal policy, we consider pure and restricted base-stock policies under new lead time and cost circumstances. Based on our numerical results we conclude that the latter policy, which imposes a restriction on the maximum order size, performs almost as well as the optimal policy. We also propose an approximation procedure to determine the base-stock levels for both policies with closed-form expressions.     

Forecasting and Inventory Control for Sporadic Demand Under Periodic Review

A sporadic or lumpy demand pattern is characterized by large transactions separated by periods of zero demand. Such demand patterns occur frequently for items in parts and supplies inventory systems. A forecasting procedure is presented, to be used in conjunction with a base-stock (order-up-to) inventory-control policy under periodic review. The procedure determines the size and timing of replenishment orders. Although a base-stock policy calls for a replenishment order after each transaction, it is shown that a delay in placing the order can result in significant holding-cost reductions with little additional risk or cost of stockouts.     

随机需求下考虑半成品库存的多周期生产决策优化

为了更好地应对需求的不确定性,在需求实现之前,企业既可以生产成品直接满足需求,亦可生产部分半成品,在观察到实际需求之后短时间内迅速完成剩余生产环节以满足需求。未加工的半成品和未售出的成品可用于满足后续周期的需求。作为一种提高生产灵活性的手段,分阶段生产的方式会产生更高的成本。企业需要在成本和灵活性之间作出权衡,优化生产决策。模型通过动态规划的方法,研究需求不确定情况下考虑半成品库存的多周期生产决策问题,通过分析目标函数以及最优值函数的结构性质,推导出最优的多周期生产策略为修正的目标库存策略,并且分析了不同参数对最优策略的影响。     

Impacts of inventory shortage policies on transportation requirements in two-stage distribution systems

This paper investigates the impacts inventory shortage policies have on transportation costs in base-stock distribution systems under uncertain demand. The model proposed demonstrates how backlogging arrangements can serve to decrease the variability of transportation capacity requirements, and hence the magnitude of transportation costs, when compared with policies that expedite demand shortages. The model shows how inventory policy decisions directly impact expected transportation costs and provides a new method for setting stock levels that jointly minimizes inventory and transportation costs. The model and solution method provide insights into the relationship between inventory decisions and transportation costs and can serve to support delivery policy negotiations between a supplier and customer that must choose between expediting and backlogging demand shortages.     

Optimality of Base-Stock and (s, S) Policies for Inventory Problems with Information Delays

Information delays exist when the most recent inventory information available to the inventory manager (IM) is dated; namely, the IM observes only the inventory level of an earlier period. We introduce information delays into the standard multiperiod stochastic inventory problem with backorders. We consider two types of information delays: (i) a constant delay and (ii) a random delay. We define an appropriate reference inventory position, which is a sufficient statistics for finding the optimal order quantity. We show that the optimal ordering policy is of base-stock type with respect to the reference inventory position and is of (s, S) type if there is also a fixed cost of ordering.All authors were supported in part by NSF Grant DMS-0509278.     

Optimal myopic policy for a stochastic inventory problem with fixed and proportional backorder costs

In this paper, we consider a single product, periodic review, stochastic demand inventory problem where backorders are allowed and penalized via fixed and proportional backorder costs simultaneously. Fixed backorder cost associates a one-shot penalty with stockout situations whereas proportional backorder cost corresponds to a penalty for each demanded but yet waiting to be satisfied item. We discuss the optimality of a myopic base-stock policy for the infinite horizon case. Critical number of the infinite horizon myopic policy, i.e., the base-stock level, is denoted by S. If the initial inventory is below S then the optimal policy is myopic in general, i.e., regardless of the values of model parameters and demand density. Otherwise, the sufficient condition for a myopic optimum requires some restrictions on demand density or parameter values. However, this sufficient condition is not very restrictive, in the sense that it holds immediately for Erlang demand density family. We also show that the value of S can be computed easily for the case of Erlang demand. This special case is important since most real-life demand densities with coefficient of variation not exceeding unity can well be represented by an Erlang density. Thus, the myopic policy may be considered as an approximate solution, if the exact policy is intractable. Finally, we comment on a generalization of this study for the case of phase-type demands, and identify some related research problems which utilize the results presented here.     

Modified base-stock policies for semiconductor production system with dependent yield rates

We consider a two-stage production system faced by semiconductor manufacturing which produces a hierarchy of multiple grades of outputs. In the first stage, a single type of input (wafer) is used to produce multiple types of semi-finished parts with dependent yield rates, and in the second stage, each type of semi-finished parts can be transformed into a corresponding type of final products, or downgraded to a type of lower grade final products. Random customer demands are faced on the final products, and demands of different types of final products are not allowed to be substituted. The advantage of this production system is that it can prevent unhealthy ordering from customers who intentionally send out false demand signals for high grade products and revise the orders to lower grade products when the delivery time is close, which was observed in semiconductor manufacturing. The objective of the study is to plan the quantity of the input at the first stage and the respective downgrade quantities at the second stage so as to meet the required service level at the minimum cost. With some common assumptions, we propose a modified base-stock policy for this two-stage production system and show that the occurrence of nil excess inventory above the base-stock level follows a renewal process. We further extend the modified base-stock policy to a better policy that invokes risk pooling over multiple grade products. The performance of these two polices are evaluated via simulation to provide managerial insights.     

Leadtime management in a periodic-review inventory system: A state-dependent base-stock policy

We examine a single-item, periodic-review inventory system with stochastic leadtimes, in which a replenishment order is delivered immediately or one period later, depending probabilistically on costly effort. The objective is to determine a joint inventory policy and effort-choice strategy that minimizes the expected total costs. Our analytical and computational analysis suggests that (i) a state-dependent base-stock policy is optimal, (ii) the optimal effort strategy is such that the marginal cost of effort is equal to the value of immediate delivery, and (iii) the cost impact of leadtime reduction can be very large. We also provide some counter-intuitive results, compared with the traditional multi-period newsvendor model.     

Managing an integrated production inventory system with information on the production and demand status and multiple non-unitary demand classes

In this paper, we study a system consisting of a manufacturer or supplier serving several retailers or clients. The manufacturer produces a standard product in a make-to-stock fashion in anticipation of orders emanating from n retailers with different contractual agreements hence ranked/prioritized according to their importance. Orders from the retailers are non-unitary and have sizes that follow a discrete distribution. The total production time is assumed to follow a k₀-Erlang distribution. Order inter-arrival time for class l demand is assumed to follow a k_l-Erlang distribution. Work-in-process as well as the finished product incur a, per unit per unit of time, carrying cost. Unsatisfied units from an order from a particular demand class are assumed lost and incur a class specific lost sale cost. The objective is to determine the optimal production and inventory allocation policies so as to minimize the expected total (discounted or average) cost. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process and show that the optimal production policy is of the base-stock type with base-stock levels non-decreasing in the demand stages. We also show that the optimal inventory allocation policy is a rationing policy with rationing levels non-decreasing in the demand stages. We also study several important special cases and provide, through numerical experiments, managerial insights including the effect of the different sources of variability on the operating cost and the benefits of such contracts as Vendor Managed Inventory or Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment. Also, we show that a heuristic that ignores the dependence of the base-stock and rationing levels on the demands stages can perform very poorly compared to the optimal policy.     

Inventory models with minimal service level constraints

This paper investigates inventory models in which the stockout cost is replaced by a minimal service level constraint (SLC) that requires a certain level of service to be met in every period. The minimal service level approach has the virtue of simplifying the computation of an optimal ordering policy, because the optimal reorder level is solely determined by the minimal SLC and demand distributions. It is found that above a certain “critical” service level, the optimal (s,S) policy “collapses” to a simple base-stock or order-up-to level policy, which is independent on the cost parameters. This shows the minimal SLC models to be qualitatively different from their shortage cost counterparts. We also demonstrate that the “imputed shortage cost” transforming a minimal SLC model to a shortage cost model does not generally exist. The minimal SLC approach is extended to models with negligible set-up costs. The optimality of myopic base-stock policies is established under mild conditions.     

Stochastic inventory problem with piecewise quadratic holding cost function containing a cost-free interval

In this paper, we consider a periodic-review stochastic inventory model with an asymmetric or piecewise-quadratic holding cost function and nonnegative production levels. It is assumed that the cost of deviating from an ideal production level or existing capacity is symmetric quadratic. It is shown that the optimal order policy is similar to the (s, S) policies found in the literature, except that the order-up-to quantity is a nonlinear function of the entering inventory level. Dynamic programming is used to derive the optimal policy. We provide numerical examples and a sensitivity analysis on the problem parameters.This research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada under Grant No. A5872. The authors wish to thank an anonymous referee for very helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper.