Peeling Layers of an Onion: Inventory Model with Multiple Delivery Modes and Forecast Updates

This paper is concerned with a periodic review inventory system with fast and slow delivery modes and regular demand forecast updates. At the beginning of each period, on-hand inventory and demand information are updated. At the same time, decisions on how much to order using fast and slow delivery modes are made. Fast and slow orders are delivered at the end of the current and the next periods, respectively. It is shown that there exists an optimal Markov policy and that it is a modified base-stock policy.     

在预报更新的环境下具有两种配送方式的供应链模型

本文研究在预报更新环境下具有快、慢两种配送方式和需求预报更新的库存系统，为了得到更多关于费用参数和预报改进对最优定货量以及最优的平均费用的影响，我们考虑两个周期的情形．以动态规划为工具我们得到了系统的最优策略．对于需求预报服从均匀分布情形，本文得到了最优定货量和最优的平均总费用的精确表达式．我们通过一些数值例子来说明库存费用、罚金、需求的预报改进和预报误差对最优定货量和最优的     

Joint replenishment and pricing decisions in inventory systems with stochastically dependent supply capacity

In this paper, we study a joint optimization problem of replenishment and pricing for a periodic-review inventory system with random supply capacity. When making replenishment and pricing decisions at the beginning of each period, the firm only knows the supplier’s available capacity in the current period, but does not know what will be the available capacity in future periods. The salient feature of our model is that the random supply capacities for different periods are dependent. Several stochastic dependency structures are considered for the supply capacity sequence, including the one-lag and the multi-lag dependency.     

向多个供应商采购的存贮模型研究

本文研究当需求量巨大、单一供应商无法满足供货要求情况下的多供应商采购-库存问题,建立了一个向多个有能力约束的供应商采购的库存模型;将模型简化以后用Kuhn-Tucker条件分析了其松弛问题的最优解的必要条件及其相应的搜索算法;随后给出了模型的整数近似解算法,最后给出本文结论以及未来的研究方向。     

通货膨胀对带有时变需求的变质性物品库存补充策略的影响

本文在考虑通货膨胀的情形下，建立了带有时变需求的变质性物品在有限计划期内的库存补充模型，提供了最优补充次数、最优补充周期长度以及各次补充的最优补充量的一种简单而有效的逼近方法，并用数学例子说明了该方法的实现过程．     

Modelling imperfect advance demand information and analysis of optimal inventory policies

We consider an inventory control problem where it is possible to collect some imperfect information on future demand. We refer to such information as imperfect Advance Demand Information (ADI), which may occur in different forms of applications. A simple example is a company that uses sales representatives to market its products, in which case the collection of sales representatives’ information as to the number of customers interested in a product can generate an indication about the future sales of that product, hence it constitutes imperfect ADI. Other applications include internet retailing, Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) applications and Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) environments. We develop a model that incorporates imperfect ADI with ordering decisions. Under our system settings, we show that the optimal policy is of order-up-to type, where the order level is a function of imperfect ADI. We also provide some characterizations of the optimal solution. We develop an expression for the expected cost benefits of imperfect ADI for the myopic problem. Our analytical and empirical findings reveal the conditions under which imperfect ADI is more valuable.     

Inventory sharing in integrated network design and inventory optimization with low-demand parts

Service Parts Logistics (SPL) problems induce strong interaction between network design and inventory stocking due to high costs and low demands of parts and response time based service requirements. These pressures motivate the inventory sharing practice among stocking facilities. We incorporate inventory sharing effects within a simplified version of the integrated SPL problem, capturing the sharing fill rates in 2-facility inventory sharing pools. The problem decides which facilities in which pools should be stocked and how the demand should be allocated to stocked facilities, given full inventory sharing between the facilities within each pool so as to minimize the total facility, inventory and transportation costs subject to a time-based service level constraint. Our analysis for the single pool problem leads us to model this otherwise non-linear integer optimization problem as a modified version of the binary knapsack problem. Our numerical results show that a greedy heuristic for a network of 100 facilities is on average within 0.12% of the optimal solution. Furthermore, we observe that a greater degree of sharing occurs when a large amount of customer demands are located in the area overlapping the time windows of both facilities in 2-facility pools.     

常用大气污染预报模式的应用及比较分析

针对丹东市采暖期SO2污染的实际情况及气象因子的关系,建立了逐步回归、偏最小二乘回归、主成分回归和BP神经网络等4种常用的大气污染预报模式,并在实际预报中进行了模拟、试报和应用,结果发现,各个模式模拟值与实际值的变化趋势基本一致,BP神经网络方程和偏最小二乘回归方程的预报值与实际值的接近程度要好于逐步回归方程和主成分回归方程.     

Inventory problems with perishable items: Fixed lifetimes and backlogging

Our model deals with a single-product and a single-stock location with Poisson demand. The replenishment leadtime from the external supplier is fixed. The lifetime of the product is also fixed, and aging is assumed to begin when the order is placed. When the age of a unit has reached its lifetime, the unit is useless and thus discarded from the system. The replenishment policy is assumed to be an order-up-to S-policy. Demand that cannot be met immediately is backordered. We consider three different cases where the service requirements are represented by: (1) backorder costs per unit, (2) a service level constraint, (3) backorder costs per unit and time unit. Cases 1 and 2 are solved exactly, while an approximation is developed for case 3. We show how the results from an earlier paper assuming lost sales can be used to solve the considered problems. Our results are compared to the results in a related paper considering (Q, r)-policies.     

用灰色马尔柯夫链预测模型对我国粮食产量的预测

针对粮食生产的不确定性 ,本文提出了用建立在中心逼近式的 GM(1 ,1 )模型及马尔柯夫预测模型上的灰色马尔柯夫预测模型对我国粮食产量进行预测 ,预测建立在对过去年份的数据的分析之上 ,并给出了2 0 0 3年的粮食产量预测结果 .     

随机的库存-路径问题的机会约束规划模型与算法

随机需求下的库存-路径问题是一类复杂的组合优化问题.本文讨论了VMI背景下的库存-路径联合优化问题,构建了问题的机会约束规划模型,并将随机模拟、人工神经网络和遗传算法结合在一起,设计了求解问题的混合智能算法.实验表明算法性能良好.     

我国就业人数的数学模型探析及前景预测

基于经济学理论和逐步回归分析方法优选影响就业较大的9个指标,建立了城镇就业人口数与该9个指标之间的数学模型.针对建筑、交通运输行业,东部、西部地区以及不同学历问题,建立了城镇就业人数的较精确数学模型.考虑国家宏观调控政策的影响,利用灰色模型和非线性回归模型优选预测2009年及2010年上半年的就业前景.最后,对提高我国城镇就业人口数提出相关建议.     

Inventory systems with stochastic demand and supply: Properties and approximations

We model a retailer whose supplier is subject to complete supply disruptions. We combine discrete-event uncertainty (disruptions) and continuous sources of uncertainty (stochastic demand or supply yield), which have different impacts on optimal inventory settings. This prevents optimal solutions from being found in closed form. We develop a closed-form approximate solution by focusing on a single stochastic period of demand or yield. We show how the familiar newsboy fractile is a critical trade-off in these systems, since the optimal base-stock policies balance inventory holding costs with the risk of shortage costs generated by a disruption.     

Queueing systems with inventory management with random lead times and with backordering

We investigate M/M/1/∞-systems with inventory management, continuous review, exponentially distributed lead times and backordering. We compute performance measures and derive optimality conditions under different order policies. For performance measures, which are not explicitly at hand, we present an approximation scheme for all possible parameter combinations. Although we cannot completely determine analytically the steady state probabilities for the system we are able to derive functional relations between interesting probabilities and show surprising insensitivity properties of several performance measures. For the approximations we develop an algorithm adapted to the system structure which suggests easy adaption to other systems.Work supported by Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst and KBN, Poland, Project D/02/32206.     

Inventory Problems with Partially Observed Demands and Lost Sales

This paper considers the case of partially observed demand in the context of a multi-period inventory problem with lost sales. Demand in a period is observed if it is less than the inventory level in that period and the leftover inventory is carried over to the next period. Otherwise, only the event that it is larger than or equal to the inventory level is observed. These observations are used to update the demand distributions over time. The state of the resulting dynamic program consists of the current inventory level and the current demand distribution, which is infinite dimensional. The state evolution equation for the demand distribution becomes linear with the use of unnormalized probabilities. We study two demand cases. First, the demands evolve according to a Markov chain. Second, the demand distribution has an unknown parameter which is updated in the Bayesian manner. In both cases, we prove the existence of an optimal feedback ordering policy. Permanent address of J. Adolfo Minjárez-Sosa: Departamento de Matemáticas, Universidad de Sonora, Hermosillo, Sonora, México. This project was partially supported by NSF Grant 0509278, ARPATP Grant 009741-0019-2006, and CONACYT (Mexico) Grant 46633-F.     

Inventory models for imperfect quality items with shortages and learning in inspection

The classical economic order quantity model, although well known and useful; assumes that all items received conform to quality characteristics. However, in practice, items may be damaged due to transportation and/or production conditions. This requires a buyer to screen each lot it receives from its vendor to separate the good from the nonconforming (due to imperfect quality) items. While screening is usually a manual task performed by inspectors, it may improve with learning. Besides, it was observed in some studies that coordinating activities (e.g., quality) between a buyer and a vendor may be subject to learning effects and results in improving the quality of each lot (as it contains less nonconforming items) delivered or produced.     

化学反应生成物浓度预测、控制数学模型的研究

根据化学动力学理论,由化学反应速率的定义,利用机理分析法以及反应速率微分方程,对化学反应的生成物浓度与时间、温度的关系进行了定性、定量分析.根据不同的反应条件,深入研究并建立及推广了生成物浓度数学模型.经实验检验,建立的数学模型具有高度的概括性、准确性,可应用于预测、控制化学反应系统、优化工艺过程.     

Inventory models with ramp type demand rate,partial backlogging and Weibull deterioration rate

In this paper, an inventory model with general ramp type demand rate, time dependent (Weibull) deterioration rate and partial backlogging of unsatisfied demand is considered. The model is studied under the following different replenishment policies: (a) starting with no shortages and (b) starting with shortages. The model is fairly general as the demand rate, up to the time point of its stabilization, is a general function of time. The backlogging rate is any non-increasing function of the waiting time up to the next replenishment. The optimal replenishment policy for the model is derived for both the above mentioned policies.     

Inventory control of supply chains: Mitigating the bullwhip effect by centralized and decentralized Internal Model Control approaches

In this paper, a two-degrees-of-freedom Internal Model Control structure is incorporated in production inventory control for a supply chain system. This scheme presents an intuitive and simple parametrization of controllers, where inventory target tracking and disturbance (demand) rejection in the inventory level problems are treated separately. Moreover, considering that the lead times are known, this scheme presents a perfect compensation of the delay making the stabilization problem easier to handle. This control structure is formulated for a serial supply chain in two ways (by using a centralized and a decentralized control approach). The behavior of these inventory control strategies is analyzed in the entire supply chain. Analytical tuning rules for bullwhip effect avoidance are developed for both strategies. The results of controller evaluations demonstrate that centralized control approach enhances the behavior with respect to the inventory target tracking, demand rejection and bullwhip effect in the supply chain systems.     

可替代产品库存模型的研究

市场上，很多产品之间可相互替代，某种产品缺货时，可用另一种产品替代，也可以重新进货以满足顾客的需求。我们的目的是：从销售商的角度，讨论这两个因素对库存策略的影响。我们建立了这类问题有两个产品的单调期的利润最大化模型。证明了问题的解的存在性，给出了目标函数是凹函数和子模函数的充分条件，讨论了求解的方法和各参数对库存的影响。通过对几种特殊情况的讨论和比较，证明了替代和再订货可以提高利润并且可减少库存总量。