Linear and Nonlinear Effects in Connectedness Structure: Comparison between European Stock Markets

The purpose of this research is to compare the risk transfer structure in Central and Eastern European and Western European stock markets during the 2007–2009 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Similar to the global financial crisis (GFC), the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) created a significant level of risk, causing investors to suffer losses in a very short period of time. We use a variety of methods, including nonstandard like mutual information and transfer entropy. The results that we obtained indicate that there are significant nonlinear correlations in the capital markets that can be practically applied for investment portfolio optimization. From an investor perspective, our findings suggest that in the wake of global crisis and pandemic outbreak, the benefits of diversification will be limited by the transfer of funds between developed and developing country markets. Our study provides an insight into the risk transfer theory in developed and emerging markets as well as a cutting-edge methodology designed for analyzing the connectedness of markets. We contribute to the studies which have examined the different stock markets’ response to different turbulences. The study confirms that specific market effects can still play a significant role because of the interconnection of different sectors of the global economy.     

Regularity in Stock Market Indices within Turbulence Periods: The Sample Entropy Approach

The aim of this study is to assess and compare changes in regularity in the 36 European and the U.S. stock market indices within major turbulence periods. Two periods are investigated: the Global Financial Crisis in 2007–2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in 2020–2021. The proposed research hypothesis states that entropy of an equity market index decreases during turbulence periods, which implies that regularity and predictability of a stock market index returns increase in such cases. To capture sequential regularity in daily time series of stock market indices, the Sample Entropy algorithm (SampEn) is used. Changes in the SampEn values before and during the particular turbulence period are estimated. The empirical findings are unambiguous and confirm no reason to reject the research hypothesis. Moreover, additional formal statistical analyses indicate that the SampEn results are similar both for developed and emerging European economies. Furthermore, the rolling-window procedure is utilized to assess the evolution of SampEn over time.     

Market efficiency in foreign exchange markets

We investigate the relative market efficiency in financial market data, using the approximate entropy(ApEn) method for a quantification of randomness in time series. We used the global foreign exchange market indices for 17 countries during two periods from 1984 to 1998 and from 1999 to 2004 in order to study the efficiency of various foreign exchange markets around the market crisis. We found that on average, the ApEn values for European and North American foreign exchange markets are larger than those for African and Asian ones except Japan. We also found that the ApEn for Asian markets increased significantly after the Asian currency crisis. Our results suggest that the markets with a larger liquidity such as European and North American foreign exchange markets have a higher market efficiency than those with a smaller liquidity such as the African and Asian markets except Japan.     

Dynamics of Information Flow between the Chinese A-Share Market and the U.S. Stock Market: From the 2008 Crisis to the COVID-19 Pandemic Period

The relationship between the Chinese market and the US market is widely concerned by researchers and investors. This paper uses transfer entropy and local random permutation (LRP) surrogates to detect the information flow dynamics between two markets. We provide a detailed analysis of the relationship between the two markets using long-term daily and weekly data. Calculations show that there is an asymmetric information flow between the two markets, in which the US market significantly affects the Chinese market. Dynamic analysis based on weekly data shows that the information flow evolves, and includes three significant periods between 2004 and 2021. We also used daily data to analyze the dynamics of information flow in detail over the three periods and found that changes in the intensity of information flow were accompanied by major events affecting the market, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic period. In particular, we analyzed the impact of the S&P500 index on different industry indices in the Chinese market and found that the dynamics of information flow exhibit multiple patterns. This study reveals the complex information flow between two markets from the perspective of nonlinear dynamics, thereby helping to analyze the impact of major events and providing quantitative analysis tools for investment practice.     

Effects of Tau and Sampling Frequency on the Regularity Analysis of ECG and EEG Signals Using ApEn and SampEn Entropy Estimators

Electrocardiography (ECG) and electroencephalography (EEG) signals provide clinical information relevant to determine a patient’s health status. The nonlinear analysis of ECG and EEG signals allows for discovering characteristics that could not be found with traditional methods based on amplitude and frequency. Approximate entropy (ApEn) and sampling entropy (SampEn) are nonlinear data analysis algorithms that measure the data’s regularity, and these are used to classify different electrophysiological signals as normal or pathological. Entropy calculation requires setting the parameters r (tolerance threshold), m (immersion dimension), and τ (time delay), with the last one being related to how the time series is downsampled. In this study, we showed the dependence of ApEn and SampEn on different values of τ, for ECG and EEG signals with different sampling frequencies (F_s), extracted from a digital repository. We considered four values of F_s (128, 256, 384, and 512 Hz for the ECG signals, and 160, 320, 480, and 640 Hz for the EEG signals) and five values of τ (from 1 to 5). We performed parametric and nonparametric statistical tests to confirm that the groups of normal and pathological ECG and EEG signals were significantly different (p < 0.05) for each F and τ value. The separation between the entropy values of regular and irregular signals was variable, demonstrating the dependence of ApEn and SampEn with F_s and τ. For ECG signals, the separation between the conditions was more robust when using SampEn, the lowest value of F_s, and τ larger than 1. For EEG signals, the separation between the conditions was more robust when using SampEn with large values of F_s and τ larger than 1. Therefore, adjusting τ may be convenient for signals that were acquired with different F_s to ensure a reliable clinical classification. Furthermore, it is useful to set τ to values larger than 1 to reduce the computational cost.     

Associations between Neurocardiovascular Signal Entropy and Physical Frailty

In this cross-sectional study, the relationship between noninvasively measured neurocardiovascular signal entropy and physical frailty was explored in a sample of community-dwelling older adults from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA). The hypothesis under investigation was that dysfunction in the neurovascular and cardiovascular systems, as quantified by short-length signal complexity during a lying-to-stand test (active stand), could provide a marker for frailty. Frailty status (i.e., “non-frail”, “pre-frail”, and “frail”) was based on Fried’s criteria (i.e., exhaustion, unexplained weight loss, weakness, slowness, and low physical activity). Approximate entropy (ApEn) and sample entropy (SampEn) were calculated during resting (lying down), active standing, and recovery phases. There was continuously measured blood pressure/heart rate data from 2645 individuals (53.0% female) and frontal lobe tissue oxygenation data from 2225 participants (52.3% female); both samples had a mean (SD) age of 64.3 (7.7) years. Results revealed statistically significant associations between neurocardiovascular signal entropy and frailty status. Entropy differences between non-frail and pre-frail/frail were greater during resting state compared with standing and recovery phases. Compared with ApEn, SampEn seemed to have better discriminating power between non-frail and pre-frail/frail individuals. The quantification of entropy in short length neurocardiovascular signals could provide a clinically useful marker of the multiple physiological dysregulations that underlie physical frailty.     

Transfer Entropy Granger Causality between News Indices and Stock Markets in U.S. and Latin America during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The relationship between three different groups of COVID-19 news series and stock market volatility for several Latin American countries and the U.S. are analyzed. To confirm the relationship between these series, a maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) was applied to determine the specific periods wherein each pair of series is significantly correlated. To determine if the news series cause Latin American stock markets’ volatility, a one-sided Granger causality test based on transfer entropy (GC-TE) was applied. The results confirm that the U.S. and Latin American stock markets react differently to COVID-19 news. Some of the most statistically significant results were obtained from the reporting case index (RCI), A-COVID index, and uncertainty index, in that order, which are statistically significant for the majority of Latin American stock markets. Altogether, the results suggest these COVID-19 news indices could be used to forecast stock market volatility in the U.S. and Latin America.     

Entropy Analysis of Heart Rate Variability in Different Sleep Stages

How the complexity or irregularity of heart rate variability (HRV) changes across different sleep stages and the importance of these features in sleep staging are not fully understood. This study aimed to investigate the complexity or irregularity of the RR interval time series in different sleep stages and explore their values in sleep staging. We performed approximate entropy (ApEn), sample entropy (SampEn), fuzzy entropy (FuzzyEn), distribution entropy (DistEn), conditional entropy (CE), and permutation entropy (PermEn) analyses on RR interval time series extracted from epochs that were constructed based on two methods: (1) 270-s epoch length and (2) 300-s epoch length. To test whether adding the entropy measures can improve the accuracy of sleep staging using linear HRV indices, XGBoost was used to examine the abilities to differentiate among: (i) 5 classes [Wake (W), non-rapid-eye-movement (NREM), which can be divide into 3 sub-stages: stage N1, stage N2, and stage N3, and rapid-eye-movement (REM)]; (ii) 4 classes [W, light sleep (combined N1 and N2), deep sleep (N3), and REM]; and (iii) 3 classes: (W, NREM, and REM). SampEn, FuzzyEn, and CE significantly increased from W to N3 and decreased in REM. DistEn increased from W to N1, decreased in N2, and further decreased in N3; it increased in REM. The average accuracy of the three tasks using linear and entropy features were 42.1%, 59.1%, and 60.8%, respectively, based on 270-s epoch length; all were significantly lower than the performance based on 300-s epoch length (i.e., 54.3%, 63.1%, and 67.5%, respectively). Adding entropy measures to the XGBoost model of linear parameters did not significantly improve the classification performance. However, entropy measures, especially PermEn, DistEn, and FuzzyEn, demonstrated greater importance than most of the linear parameters in the XGBoost model.300-s270-s.     

Evolving Network Analysis of S&P500 Components: COVID-19 Influence of Cross-Correlation Network Structure

The economy is a system of complex interactions. The COVID-19 pandemic strongly influenced economies, particularly through introduced restrictions, which formed a completely new economic environment. The present work focuses on the changes induced by the COVID-19 epidemic on the correlation network structure. The analysis is performed on a representative set of USA companies—the S&P500 components. Four different network structures are constructed (strong, weak, typically, and significantly connected networks), and the rank entropy, cycle entropy, averaged clustering coefficient, and transitivity evolution are established and discussed. Based on the mentioned structural parameters, four different stages have been distinguished during the COVID-19-induced crisis. The proposed network properties and their applicability to a crisis-distinguishing problem are discussed. Moreover, the optimal time window problem is analysed.     

The Cryptocurrency Market in Transition before and after COVID-19: An Opportunity for Investors?

We analyze the correlation between different assets in the cryptocurrency market throughout different phases, specifically bearish and bullish periods. Taking advantage of a fine-grained dataset comprising 34 historical cryptocurrency price time series collected tick-by-tick on the HitBTC exchange, we observe the changes in interactions among these cryptocurrencies from two aspects: time and level of granularity. Moreover, the investment decisions of investors during turbulent times caused by the COVID-19 pandemic are assessed by looking at the cryptocurrency community structure using various community detection algorithms. We found that finer-grain time series describes clearer the correlations between cryptocurrencies. Notably, a noise and trend removal scheme is applied to the original correlations thanks to the theory of random matrices and the concept of Market Component, which has never been considered in existing studies in quantitative finance. To this end, we recognized that investment decisions of cryptocurrency traders vary between bearish and bullish markets. The results of our work can help scholars, especially investors, better understand the operation of the cryptocurrency market, thereby building up an appropriate investment strategy suitable to the prevailing certain economic situation.     

The Systematic Bias of Entropy Calculation in the Multi-Scale Entropy Algorithm

Entropy indicates irregularity or randomness of a dynamic system. Over the decades, entropy calculated at different scales of the system through subsampling or coarse graining has been used as a surrogate measure of system complexity. One popular multi-scale entropy analysis is the multi-scale sample entropy (MSE), which calculates entropy through the sample entropy (SampEn) formula at each time scale. SampEn is defined by the “logarithmic likelihood” that a small section (within a window of a length m) of the data “matches” with other sections will still “match” the others if the section window length increases by one. “Match” is defined by a threshold of r times standard deviation of the entire time series. A problem of current MSE algorithm is that SampEn calculations at different scales are based on the same matching threshold defined by the original time series but data standard deviation actually changes with the subsampling scales. Using a fixed threshold will automatically introduce systematic bias to the calculation results. The purpose of this paper is to mathematically present this systematic bias and to provide methods for correcting it. Our work will help the large MSE user community avoiding introducing the bias to their multi-scale SampEn calculation results.     

Impact of Coronavirus Outbreaks on Science and Society: Insights from Temporal Bibliometry of SARS and COVID-19

A global event such as the COVID-19 crisis presents new, often unexpected responses that are fascinating to investigate from both scientific and social standpoints. Despite several documented similarities, the coronavirus pandemic is clearly distinct from the 1918 flu pandemic in terms of our exponentially increased, almost instantaneous ability to access/share information, offering an unprecedented opportunity to visualise rippling effects of global events across space and time. Personal devices provide “big data” on people’s movement, the environment and economic trends, while access to the unprecedented flurry in scientific publications and media posts provides a measure of the response of the educated world to the crisis. Most bibliometric (co-authorship, co-citation, or bibliographic coupling) analyses ignore the time dimension, but COVID-19 has made it possible to perform a detailed temporal investigation into the pandemic. Here, we report a comprehensive network analysis based on more than 20,000 published documents on viral epidemics, authored by over 75,000 individuals from 140 nations in the past one year of the crisis. Unlike the 1918 flu pandemic, access to published data over the past two decades enabled a comparison of publishing trends between the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and those of the 2003 SARS epidemic to study changes in thematic foci and societal pressures dictating research over the course of a crisis.     

基于模糊近似熵的抑郁症患者静息态功能磁共振成像信号复杂度分析

提出采用模糊近似熵的方法对功能磁共振成像(functional magnetic resonance imaging,fMRI)复杂度量化分析,并与样本熵进行比较.采用的22个成年抑郁症患者中,11位男性,年龄在18—65岁之间.我们期望测量的静息态fMRI信号复杂度与Goldberger/Lipsitz模型一致,越健康、越稳健其生理表现的复杂度越大,且复杂度随年龄的增大而降低.全脑平均模糊近似熵与年龄之间差异性显著(r=-0.512,p0.001).相比之下,样本熵与年龄之间差异性不显著(r=-0.102,p=0.482).模糊近似熵同样与年龄相关脑区(额叶、顶叶、边缘系统、颞叶、小脑顶叶)之间差异性显著(p0.05),样本熵与年龄相关脑区之间差异性不显著性.这些结果与Goldberger/Lipsitz模型一致,说明采用模糊近似熵分析fMRI数据复杂度是一个有效的新方法.     

A Multi-Criteria Decision Support and Application to the Evaluation of the Fourth Wave of COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic caused important health and societal damage across the world in 2020–2022. Its study represents a tremendous challenge for the scientific community. The correct evaluation and analysis of the situation can lead to the elaboration of the most efficient strategies and policies to control and mitigate its propagation. The paper proposes a Multi-Criteria Decision Support (MCDS) based on the combination of three methods: the Group Analytic Hierarchy Process (GAHP), which is a subjective group weighting method; Extended Entropy Weighting Method (EEWM), which is an objective weighting method; and the COmplex PRoportional ASsessment (COPRAS), which is a multi-criteria method. The COPRAS uses the combined weights calculated by the GAHP and EEWM. The sum normalization (SN) is considered for COPRAS and EEWM. An extended entropy is proposed in EEWM. The MCDS is implemented for the development of a complex COVID-19 indicator called COVIND, which includes several countries’ COVID-19 indicators, over a fourth COVID-19 wave, for a group of European countries. Based on these indicators, a ranking of the countries is obtained. An analysis of the obtained rankings is realized by the variation of two parameters: a parameter that describes the combination of weights obtained with EEWM and GAHP and the parameter of extended entropy function. A correlation analysis between the new indicator and the general country indicators is performed. The MCDS provides policy makers with a decision support able to synthesize the available information on the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.     

Evaluation of Fast Sample Entropy Algorithms on FPGAs: From Performance to Energy Efficiency

Entropy is one of the most fundamental notions for understanding complexity. Among all the methods to calculate the entropy, sample entropy (SampEn) is a practical and common method to estimate time-series complexity. Unfortunately, SampEn is a time-consuming method growing in quadratic times with the number of elements, which makes this method unviable when processing large data series. In this work, we evaluate hardware SampEn architectures to offload computation weight, using improved SampEn algorithms and exploiting reconfigurable technologies, such as field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), a reconfigurable technology well-known for its high performance and power efficiency. In addition to the fundamental disclosed straightforward SampEn (SF) calculation method, this study evaluates optimized strategies, such as bucket-assist (BA) SampEn and lightweight SampEn based on BubbleSort (BS-LW) and MergeSort (MS-LW) on an embedded CPU, a high-performance CPU and on an FPGA using simulated data and real-world electrocardiograms (ECG) as input data. Irregular storage space and memory access of enhanced algorithms is also studied and estimated in this work. These fast SampEn algorithms are evaluated and profiled using metrics such as execution time, resource use, power and energy consumption based on input data length. Finally, although the implementation of fast SampEn is not significantly faster than versions running on a high-performance CPU, FPGA implementations consume one or two orders of magnitude less energy than a high-performance CPU.     

COVID-19’s Impact on International Trade

We analyze how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the trade of products between countries. With this aim, using the United Nations Comtrade database, we perform a Google matrix analysis of the multiproduct World Trade Network (WTN) for the years 2018–2020, comprising the emergence of the COVID-19 as a global pandemic. The applied algorithms—PageRank, CheiRank and the reduced Google matrix—take into account the multiplicity of the WTN links, providing new insights into international trade compared to the usual import–export analysis. These complex networks analysis algorithms establish new rankings and trade balances of countries and products considering all countries on equal grounds, independent of their wealth, and every product on the basis of its relative exchanged volumes. In comparison with the pre-COVID-19 period, significant changes in these metrics occurred for the year 2020, highlighting a major rewiring of the international trade flows induced by the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. We define a new PageRank–CheiRank product trade balance, either export or import-oriented, which is significantly perturbed by the pandemic.     

基于近似熵的突变检测新方法

近似熵是一个有效的非线性动力学指数,能够用于表征时间序列的复杂性,通过滑动窗口技术,近似熵对于一维时间序列的动力学结构突变具有一定的识别能力,但其突变检测结果依赖于子序列长度的选择,且不能准确定位突变点.鉴于此,本文提出了一种新的突变检测方法——滑动移除近似熵.测试结果表明,滑动移除近似熵具有检测结果稳定性好、准确性高等特点,明显优于滑动近似熵和Mann-Kendall方法,其在实际观测资料中的应用进一步证实了新方法的可靠性. 关键词： 近似熵 滑动移除近似熵 突变检测     

Using the modified sample entropy to detect determinism

A modified sample entropy (mSampEn), based on the nonlinear continuous and convex function, has been proposed and proven to be superior to the standard sample entropy (SampEn) in several aspects. In this Letter, we empirically investigate the ability of the mSampEn statistic combined with surrogate data method to detect determinism. The effects of the datasets length and noise on the proposed method to differentiate between deterministic and stochastic dynamics are tested on several benchmark time series. The noise performance of the mSampEn statistic is also compared with the singular value decomposition (SVD) and symplectic geometry spectrum (SGS) based methods. The results indicate that the mSampEn statistic is a robust index for detecting determinism in short and noisy time series.     

Blockchain Technology,Cryptocurrency: Entropy-Based Perspective

The large-scale application of blockchain technology is an expected to be an inevitable trend. This study revolves around published papers and articles related to blockchain technology, relevance analysis and sorting through the retrieved documents with six core layers of blockchain: Application Layer, Contract Layer, Actuator Layer, Consensus Layer, Network Layer and Data Layer. Based on the analysis results, this study found that China’s research is more towards the preference and application of landing and industry and smart cities with blockchain as the underlying technology. International research is more focused on the research of finance as the underlying technology of blockchain and tries to combine crypto assets with real industries, such as crypted assets and payment systems for traditional industries. This paper studies the impact of monetary entropy on cryptocurrencies in smart cities and uses the monetary entropy formula to measure the crypto-economic entropy. We use Kolmogorov entropy to describe the degree of chaos in the cryptocurrency market in a smart city. The study illustrates the current status of blockchain technology and applications from the perspective of cryptocurrency in a smart city. We find that smart cities and cryptocurrencies have a mutually reinforcing effect.     

Coherence and Entropy of Credit Cycles across the Euro Area Candidate Countries

The pattern of financial cycles in the European Union has direct impacts on financial stability and economic sustainability in view of adoption of the euro. The purpose of the article is to identify the degree of coherence of credit cycles in the countries potentially seeking to adopt the euro with the credit cycle inside the Eurozone. We first estimate the credit cycles in the selected countries and in the euro area (at the aggregate level) and filter the series with the Hodrick–Prescott filter for the period 1999Q1–2020Q4. Based on these values, we compute the indicators that define the credit cycle similarity and synchronicity in the selected countries and a set of entropy measures (block entropy, entropy rate, Bayesian entropy) to show the high degree of heterogeneity, noting that the manifestation of the global financial crisis has changed the credit cycle patterns in some countries. Our novel approach provides analytical tools to cope with euro adoption decisions, showing how the coherence of credit cycles can be increased among European countries and how the national macroprudential policies can be better coordinated, especially in light of changes caused by the pandemic crisis.