Approximating Time to Extinction for Endemic Infection Models

Approximating the time to extinction of infection is an important problem in infection modelling. A variety of different approaches have been proposed in the literature. We study the performance of a number of such methods, and characterise their performance in terms of simplicity, accuracy, and generality. To this end, we consider first the classic stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model, and then a multi-dimensional generalisation of this which allows for Erlang distributed infectious periods. We find that (i) for a below-threshold infection initiated by a small number of infected individuals, approximation via a linear branching process works well; (ii) for an above-threshold infection initiated at endemic equilibrium, methods from Hamiltonian statistical mechanics yield correct asymptotic behaviour as population size becomes large; (iii) the widely-used Ornstein-Uhlenbeck diffusion approximation gives a very poor approximation, but may retain some value for qualitative comparisons in certain cases; (iv) a more detailed diffusion approximation can give good numerical approximation in certain circumstances, but does not provide correct large population asymptotic behaviour, and cannot be relied upon without some form of external validation (eg simulation studies).     

具有Logistic增长和年龄结构的SIS模型

讨论具有Logistic增长和年龄结构的SIS流行病模型.运用微分、积分方程理论,得到了当再生数R0<1时,无病平衡点E0是全局渐近稳定的;当R0>1时,地方病平衡点E*是局部渐近稳定的.     

一类时滞SIS传染病模型的讨论

对一类具有生理阶段结构的SIS传染病模型进行了分析，得到了传染病最终消除和成为地方病的阈值．     

线性模型中M检验原假设分布的随机加权逼近

在线性模型中M-方法可以用于线性假设检验, 其中M检验、Wald检验和Rao的计分型检验是最常用的检验准则. 但是在计算这些检验的临界值时都涉及到未知参数的估计. 在本文中我们利用随机加权的方法来逼近这些检验的原假设分布. 结果表明在原假设和局部对立假设之下随机加权统计量的渐近分布与原检验统计量在原假设之下的渐近分布相同. 因此我们不需要对冗余参数进行估计,利用随机加权的方法就可以得到这些检验的临界值. 而且在局部对立假设之下可以实现对功效的计算. 当取不同的误差分布和不同的随机权时, 我们对本文的方法进行了蒙特卡洛模拟. 结果表明用随机加权方法来逼近原假设分布是非常精确的.     

随机足标U-统计量逼近正态的阶

随机变量随机和的收敛性问题无论在理论上还是实用上都是有重要意义的。关于随机和的中心极限定理已有相当一般的结果。近十年来又有一系列讨论收敛速度的文章(如Landers和Rogge[1],Sreehari[2]和Prakasa Rao[3])。关于U-统计量,它的随机中心极限定理已在Sproule[4]中给出。近年采对U-统计量的Berry-Esseen不等式也有相当深入的结果(如赵林城[5],林正炎[6])。本文进一步讨论U-统计量的随机中心极限定理的收敛速度。     

Existence and Uniqueness of Endemic States for the Age-structured MSEIR Epidemic Model

The existence and uniqueness of positive steady states for the age-structured MSEIR epidemic model with age-dependent transmission coefficient is considered. Threshold results for the existence of endemic states are established; under certain conditions, uniqueness is also shown.     

一类具有时滞传染病模型的稳定性

讨论了具有双时滞的SIS传染病模型.研究了一个边界平衡点的全局稳定性和正平衡点的局部稳定性,得到了传染病最终消失和成为地方病的阈值.     

线性模型中M估计分布的随机加权方法逼近

在线性模型中,M估计的渐近分布通常都涉及到不易估计的未知误差分布的某些量,如果要估计渐近方差,就需对这些冗余参数进行估计.利用随机加权方法可以避免先对误差分布中的冗余参数进行估计.给出了当自变量是随机变量时,M估计分布的随机加权逼近,证明了M估计分布的随机加权逼近是一致相合的.当取不同的凸函数,样本大小和随机权时,进一步利用蒙特卡洛方法研究估计分布.研究表明随机权取泊松权时,不仅达到同样的效果而且可以减小计算量.     

A Maximum Principle for an Explicit Finite Difference Scheme Approximating the Hodgkin-Huxley Model

We analyze an explicit finite difference scheme for the general form of the Hodgkin-Huxley model, which is a nonlinear partial differential equation coupled to a set of ODEs. The system of equations describes propagation of an electrical signal in excitable cells. We prove that the numerical solution is bounded in the L^∞-norm and L² converges to a unique solution. The L^∞-bound, which is the key point of our analysis, is proved by showing that the discrete solutions are invariant in a physically relevant bounded region. For the convergence proof we use the compactness method. AMS subject classification (2000) 65F20     

Approximating Nash Equilibrium for Optimal Consumption in Stochastic Growth Model with Jumps

Acta Mathematica Sinica, English Series - In this paper, we study a class of dynamic games consisting of finite agents under a stochastic growth model with jumps. The jump process in the dynamics...     

具有媒体饱和效应影响的时滞SIS模型研究

媒体报道对疾病的预防和控制有着重要的作用,其可以减少人们感染疾病的机会.通过建立具有媒体饱和的传染病时滞模型来刻画媒体报道对感染率的影响,首先计算出无病平衡点和当R_01时存在唯一的地方病平衡点;其次,分析了平衡点的稳定性,并得到当参数满足一定条件时,时滞τ超过临界值τ_0,地方病平衡点处会出现Hopf分支;最后,通过数值模拟来验证理论分析.     

具有因病死亡且输人为Berverton-Holt函数的离散SIS传染病模型分析

引入相应的概率建立了考虑因病死亡且输入为Berverton-Holt的离散SIS传染病模型,确定了决定其动力性态的阈值,在阈值之下模型仅存在无病平衡点,且无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的;在阈值之上模型是一致持续的,有唯一的地方病平衡点存在,且可以猜想地方病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的.     

Dynamics Analysis of an SIS Epidemic Model with the Effects of Awareness

In this paper, an SIS model incorporating the effects of awareness spreading on epidemic is analyzed. Four kinds of equilibria of the model are given, and a new method is used to prove the stability of the equilibria. The threshold of awareness is $R_{1}^{a}$, which measures whether awareness spreads. When awareness does not spread, the basic reproduction number of disease is $R_{1}^{d}$, it is $R_{2}^{d}$ when awareness spreads. The relationship among the three kinds of thresholds is discussed in details. Specially, the effects of various awareness parameters on epidemic are analyzed. Our theoretical results suggest that raising awareness can effectively reduce the basic reproduction number of disease and reduce the spread of disease. Furthermore, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate our results.     

A Derivative Based Surrogate Model for Approximating and Optimizing the Output of an Expensive Computer Simulation

Approximation methods have found an increasing use in the optimization of complex engineering systems. The approximation method provides a 'surrogate' model which, once constructed, can be called instead of the original expensive model for the purposes of optimization. Sensitivity information on the response of interest may be cheaply available in many applications, for example, through a pertubation analysis in a finite element model or through the use of adjoint methods in CFD. This information is included here within the approximation and two strategies for optimization are described. The first involves simply resampling at the best predicted point, the second is based on an expected improvement approach. Further, the use of lower fidelity models together with approximation methods throughout the optimization process is finding increasing popularity. Some of these strategies are noted here and these are extended to include any information which may be available through sensitivities. Encouraging initial results are obtained.     

Quasi-stationary Distributions for a Class of Discrete-time Markov Chains

This paper is concerned with the circumstances under which a discrete-time absorbing Markov chain has a quasi-stationary distribution. We showed in a previous paper that a pure birth-death process with an absorbing bottom state has a quasi-stationary distribution—actually an infinite family of quasi-stationary distributions— if and only if absorption is certain and the chain is geometrically transient. If we widen the setting by allowing absorption in one step (killing) from any state, the two conditions are still necessary, but no longer sufficient. We show that the birth–death-type of behaviour prevails as long as the number of states in which killing can occur is finite. But if there are infinitely many such states, and if the chain is geometrically transient and absorption certain, then there may be 0, 1, or infinitely many quasi-stationary distributions. Examples of each type of behaviour are presented. We also survey and supplement the theory of quasi-stationary distributions for discrete-time Markov chains in general.      

一类带有种群迁移的SIS传染病模型的全局分析

通过假设同一地区内易感者和染病者具有相同的迁移率系数,建立了一类两地区间种群迁移的SIS传染病模型,得到了地方病平衡点存在的阈值条件,并借助比较定理和极限系统理论证明了无病平衡点和疾病不导致死亡时地方病平衡点的全局稳定性,最后讨论了种群迁移对传染病传播的影响.     

时间周期的离散SIS模型的传播动力学北大核心CSCD

该文研究了一类具有时间周期的空间离散多种群SIS模型的传播力学.首先,借助周期单调半流的传播速度与行波理论,证明了渐近传播速度c*的存在性.其次,利用比较原理,证得了渐近传播速度即为单调周期行波解的最小波速.     

一类带有一般出生率的SIS传染病模型的全局分析

将一般出生率系数引入S IS传染病模型,得到了种群灭绝和疾病灭绝的阈值条件.分别借助S tokes定理和D u lac函数对染病者的数量模型和染病者在种群中所占比例的模型进行了讨论,得到了相应模型的全局动力学行为.     

具有急慢性阶段的SIS流行病模型的稳定性

本文系统研究了具有急性和慢性两个阶段的SIS流行病模型.由两节构成,第一节建立和研究了具有急性和慢性两个阶段的SIS流行病模型,该模型是由三个常微分方程构成的方程组;第二节在第一节的基础上建立和研究了具有慢性病病程的SIS流行病模型;该模型既含有常微分方程,又含有偏微分方程.假设所研究的国家或地区的总人口N(t)服从增长规律: N'(t)=A—μN(t),运用微分方程和积分方程中的理论和方法,得到了这两个模型再生数R0的表达式．证明了无病平衡态的全局渐近稳定性,给出了两模型地方病平衡态的存在性和稳定性条件．     

一类具有标准发生率的SIS传染病模型的全局稳定性

研究一类具有标准发生率的SIS传染病模型.应用微分方程定性理论,分别给出了保证该系统地方病平衡点、无病平衡点和总人口消亡平衡点全局渐近稳定的充分条件.