图论与矩形对角线法在钻井布局优化设计中的应用

本对钻井布局问题的研究,首先给出图论模型对问题1得出最多可利用4口旧井,井号为2、4、5、10。利用矩形对角线法对问题2得出最多可利用6口旧井,井号为1、6、7、8、9、11。同时利用矩形对角线法给出判定这些井均可利用的条件和算法。     

不确定需求下页岩气开发项目投资时机与钻井数量选择研究

基于工程化实现视角,结合规划产能与实际产出的不一致性和产量递减性,构建市场需求不确定情境下页岩气开发项目的投资时机与钻井数量决策模型,给出最佳投资时机和最优钻井数量的解析解,并探讨了不确定性、产量递减率、钻井成功率以及钻井成本变动对最佳投资时机和最优钻井数量的影响。结果表明最佳投资时机受单位有效钻井成本影响却与最优钻井数量多少无关,最优钻井数量受市场需求的期望增长率和波动影响而与市场需求量大小无关;不确定性、产量递减率或钻井成本的增大,将引起投资延迟和钻井数量增加,而钻井成功率的增大则会起到相反的作用;并发现投资阈值与最优钻井数量呈同向变动规律。     

控压钻井井底气侵停止与否实时判别方法研究

实时判别井底气侵停止与否是控压钻井井控方法的关键,直接关系到基于立压控制法循环排气或常规关井等后续作业的选取.综合考虑气体运移膨胀和气体溶解的因素,指出出入口流量一致并不等同于井底气侵停止,两者存在时间先后关系.基于快速施加井口回压控制方法,建立了控压钻井井筒与地层耦合的多相变质量流动模型,采用有限差分法迭代求解,模型计算值与实验测量值吻合较好.模拟结果表明,出口流量有无明显拐点是区分出入口流量一致和井底气侵停止时间先后的标志.一旦井底气侵停止,立管压力的二阶导数会迅速降至0点附近且趋于稳定.根据上述参数变化特征,提出了基于出入口流量和立管压力实时监测的井底气侵停止与否实时判别方法.该研究对于完善控压钻井井控理论具有重要的指导意义.     

基于欧式贴近度的悬挂器坐挂失效模糊物元分析

尾管悬挂器作为尾管固井技术的核心工具,其坐挂成功与否决定着尾管固井成败,研究探索悬挂器坐挂失效诱因,对于节约石油钻采成本具有重要意义.针对尾管悬挂器坐挂失效的特点,建立定量和定性结合的悬挂器坐挂失效风险评价指标体系.在模糊物元分析的基础上,结合欧氏贴近度的理论,提出了基于欧氏贴近度的悬挂器坐挂失效模糊物元模型.模型采用综合专家评定法确定各诱因的权重,并求解模糊物元模型得出单井的欧式贴近度.应用该分析方法对四川X井和新疆Y井进行模糊物元分析,确定了风险等级,其结果与现场实际情况相吻合,验证了模型具有一定的准确性,可用于指导规避悬挂器坐挂失效的现场技术措施及应急预案的制定与关键环节把关.将模糊物元数学分析方法首次引入到石油固完井工具的风险评价中,为悬挂器坐挂失效风险评价提供了一种新的思路.     

石油钻井物料清单的随机数量模型研究

针对石油钻井物料投资大、物料消耗随机不确定、管理控制难的现状,本文通过构建石油钻井物料清单,提出以石油钻井物料损耗数量为随机变量,按钻井开次分阶段计算方式,分别采用期望值和渴望水平原则方法,构建石油钻井物料清单的随机数量模型。该模型的建立与应用,为石油钻井企业缩短物资供应周期、降低库存成本,实现钻井物料供应的优化管理提供了辅助支持。     

钻井布局的最优设计

本文讨论了钻井布局的最优策略问题，建立了一个最优化模型，针对题目的三个问题，提出了重要定理1，必要条件1、2，在此基础上计算并证明了问题1中可利用的旧井最多为（P2，P4，P5，P10）四只。又借助最大团理论，计算机搜索得总问题2中可利用的旧井最多为（P1，P6，P7，P8，P9，P11）6口，并对此进行了证明，对于问题3；运用定理1给出并证明了利用n口旧井的充分必要条件及实现它的算法。模型求解采用MATLAB软件，计算结果表明本文采用的算法简便可行，并具有一定的推广价值。     

一种新的大位移井钻柱几何非线性分析方法

提出了基于实测的井深及相应的井斜角和方位角来获得确保井内钻柱参考构形长度不变的井眼轴线插值方法．当以空间大位移井的井眼轴线为钻柱的参考构形时,钻柱内的初始内力可以由井眼轴线的曲率和挠率确定．利用基于在空间自然坐标系下的包含所有单元刚体位移和常应变模式的位移函数,严格地按虚功原理推出了具有初始曲率和挠率的钻柱单元内由初始内力所引起的等效节点力计算公式,为大位移井钻柱的几何非线性处理提供了理论依据．澄清了钻柱有限元分析中的若干基本概念．为随后进行的以井眼轴线为参考构形的小变形分析,计算钻柱的自重和基于自然坐标系下的线性刚度矩阵及一致载荷列阵提供了保证．     

隔水管注气双梯度钻井井筒参数计算研究北大核心CSCD

基于隔水管注气双梯度钻井过程中隔水管环空多相流特性,建立了隔水管注气双梯度钻井环空多相流模型,采用有限差分法对模型进行求解,结合墨西哥湾某口深水井现场数据,分析了钻井参数对井底压力和环空压力的影响,并对注气流量的影响因素进行讨论.研究结果表明:隔水管注气双梯度钻井井底压力比常规钻井更低,更适用于海底窄密度窗口钻井;隔水管注气双梯度钻井在钻井过程中注气流量的大小对井底压力和环空压力影响较大;水深和钻井液密度是影响注气流量的两个重要因素.在隔水管注气双梯度钻井参数设计时,应选择合适的注气流量,且钻井液密度不宜过大,以确保隔水管注气双梯度钻井安全.该研究对隔水管注气双梯度钻井设计及现场作业具有指导意义.     

基于模糊数学和灰色理论的多层次综合评价方法及其应用

针对多层次指标体系的综合评价问题,在模糊综合评判方法的基础上,结合灰色理论,提出了一种新的定量综合评价方法—多层次模糊灰关联聚类分析综合评价方法.应用该方法对油气钻井技术进行综合评价,取得了满意的结果.     

模糊重要度分析方法的研究

阐述故障树分析中从精确到模糊的重要分析法,提出了模糊重要度分析的新方法－中值法,它是用模糊故障树分析技术对结构复杂的新型系统进行可靠性、贮存可靠性研究的重要组成部分。同时,本文用两种模糊重度分析方法对一故障树作了重要度分析。     

Some further ideas concerning the interaction between insurance and investment risks

For many years it has been a frequently discussed question which is more important: insurance or investment risk. Based on Bühlmann’s (1995) method to separate these two risks with the help of conditional expectations, this paper presents a decomposition of the prospective portfolio loss into a sum of three addends that uniquely correspond to unsystematic insurance risk, systematic insurance risk, and investment risk. Calculating their variances for homogeneous portfolios of term life and pure endowment insurances shows that answering the initial question is more complex than frequently thought. In a second step, an extended duration concept is introduced, which allows one to analyze the non-diversifiable investment and systematic insurance in view of parameter changes at certain points in time.     

Instability of nonlinear dispersive solitary waves

We consider linear instability of solitary waves of several classes of dispersive long wave models. They include generalizations of KDV, BBM, regularized Boussinesq equations, with general dispersive operators and nonlinear terms. We obtain criteria for the existence of exponentially growing solutions to the linearized problem. The novelty is that we dealt with models with nonlocal dispersive terms, for which the spectra problem is out of reach by the Evans function technique. For the proof, we reduce the linearized problem to study a family of nonlocal operators, which are closely related to properties of solitary waves. A continuation argument with a moving kernel formula is used to find the instability criteria. These techniques have also been extended to study instability of periodic waves and of the full water wave problem.     

Nonlinear multivariable modeling and stability analysis of vibrations in horizontal drill string

Nowadays, economical extraction of the oil and gas, and their products is an important problem. Up to now, vertical wells have been used for oil extraction but some wells exist that they cannot be reached by using the vertical drilling. Horizontal and directional drillings are some techniques to reach these wells. In this article, dynamics of the horizontal drill string is studied. According to the forces that affect the dynamics of drilling, its longitudinal vibration is analyzed. After determination of the boundary conditions and normal modes of the system with using mode summation method, displacement of the bit is obtained. Finally, dynamics of the horizontal drill string is simulated and the effect of increasing the number of modes and the mode convergence phenomenon is discussed. Through this study, while it is shown that four modes are sufficient for a reliable prediction of the stable and unstable conditions; five modes are included for the system analysis. Then, the effects of other parameters such as the mud frequency and constants of bit/rock interaction model are studied. Through the proposed parametric study, the stability of the system is investigated. Moreover, the dominant modes which cause the instability of the horizontal drilling process are determined.     

Pearson's correlation between three variables; using students’ basic knowledge of geometry for an exercise in mathematical statistics

The well known recurrence formulae for means and standard deviations have been extended to encompass bivariate data. The effectiveness of this technique is enhanced with the aid of a microcomputer.     

海洋立管涡激损伤分析的虚拟激励法概述

立管是连接海底钻井和海上平台的重要系统.涡激振动是造成立管疲劳损伤的主要因素.受海流的随机作用,立管涡激振动表现出不确定性,对这种随机振动进行快速有效地分析,对于立管的工程设计具有非常重要的意义.考虑随机激励作用,要比确定性激励困难得多,虚拟激励法对于克服这种困难具有很好的效果.近年来,应用虚拟激励法分析立管的涡激损伤问题,取得一些成果,该文对此作一概略的叙述.     

Convex bounds on multiplicative processes, with applications to pricing in incomplete markets

Extremal distributions have been extensively used in the actuarial literature in order to derive bounds on functionals of the underlying risks, such as stop-loss premiums or ruin probabilities, for instance. In this paper, the idea is extended to a dynamic setting. Specifically, convex bounds on multiplicative processes are derived. Despite their relative simplicity, the extremal processes are shown to produce reasonably accurate bounds on option prices in the classical trinomial model for incomplete markets.     

Portfolio diversification under local and moderate deviations from power laws

This paper analyzes portfolio diversification for nonlinear transformations of heavy-tailed risks. It is shown that diversification of a portfolio of convex functions of heavy-tailed risks increases the portfolio’s riskiness if expectations of these risks are infinite. In contrast, for concave functions of heavy-tailed risks with finite expectations, the stylized fact that diversification is preferable continues to hold. The framework of transformations of heavy-tailed risks includes many models with Pareto-type distributions that exhibit local or moderate deviations from power tails in the form of additional slowly varying or exponential factors. The class of distributions under study is therefore extended beyond the stable class.     

Operations planning with VERT

The Venture Evaluation and Review Technique (VERT) is a computerized, mathematically oriented network-based simulation technique designed to analyze risk existing in three parameters of most concern to managers in new projects or ventures--time, cost, and performance. As such, the VERT technique is more powerful than techniques such as GERT, which are basically time and cost oriented. VERT has been successfully utilized to assess the risks involved in new ventures and projects, in the estimation of future capital requirements, in control monitoring, and in the overall evaluation of ongoing projects, programs, and systems. It has been helpful to management in cases where there is a requirement to make decisions with incomplete or inadequate information about the alternatives. An example describing the application of VERT to an operational planning problem--the evaluation of electric power generating methods--is illustrated.     

Simulation of the sinus floor elevation

In order to anchor implants in the severely atrophic maxilla, the method of sinus floor elevation has been introduced about ten years ago. For this purpose the bony support is extended into the sinus floor by filling it up with bone graft. It was not clear yet which degree of maturation the augmented bone must reach to distinctly reduce stress peaks in the bony structures. The results of this FE‐study show that it seems to be essential for the bone graft to attain at least the stiffness of cancellous bone. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)