Impact of demographic and economic variables on financial policy purchase timing decisions

This paper investigates the extent to which consumers' demographic factors influence their financial policy purchasing behaviours and also explores how the external economic environment affects consumers' propensities to purchase financial products. The Cox proportional hazard model is used to explore these issues. The results suggest that consumer decisions on the timing of financial product purchases are largely explained by changes in the economic environment in terms of stock market, the housing market, average earnings, consumer confidence, and interest rates. The influence of customer demographic factors is also important but secondary.     

Using copulas to model repeat purchase behaviour – An exploratory analysis via a case study

We develop a model of the evolution of inter-purchase times for a consumer-packaged product. After the introduction of the product, a consumer waits to make the initial purchase, then either waits to repurchase or decides not to. A repurchasing consumer repeats this decision process. The components of the model are the repurchase probability and the density function of the time to repurchase at each stage of the purchasing cycle. Issues of interest are: the strength of the dependency between successive repurchase times; the number of repeat purchases before stability occurs; the effects of consumer characteristics on inter-purchase times. The model of individual purchasing behaviour can be transformed via simulation to produce sales time series for a given population. As an example, the model is estimated for a product using Australian panel data. The accuracy of the model’s prediction is compared with an existing model.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">GI</Emphasis>/<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis>/1 type queueing-inventory systems with postponed work,reservation, cancellation and common life time

In this paper we analyze two single server queueing-inventory systems in which items in the inventory have a random common life time. On realization of common life time, all customers in the system are flushed out. Subsequently the inventory reaches its maximum level S through a (positive lead time) replenishment for the next cycle which follows an exponential distribution. Through cancellation of purchases, inventory gets added until their expiry time; where cancellation time follows exponential distribution. Customers arrive according to a Poisson process and service time is exponentially distributed. On arrival if a customer finds the server busy, then he joins a buffer of varying size. If there is no inventory, the arriving customer first try to queue up in a finite waiting room of capacity K. Finding that at full, he joins a pool of infinite capacity with probability γ (0 < γ < 1); else it is lost to the system forever. We discuss two models based on ‘transfer’ of customers from the pool to the waiting room / buffer. In Model 1 when, at a service completion epoch the waiting room size drops to preassigned number L ? 1 (1 < L < K) or below, a customer is transferred from pool to waiting room with probability p (0 < p < 1) and positioned as the last among the waiting customers. If at a departure epoch the waiting room turns out to be empty and there is at least one customer in the pool, then the one ahead of all waiting in the pool gets transferred to the waiting room with probability one. We introduce a totally different transfer mechanism in Model 2: when at a service completion epoch, the server turns idle with at least one item in the inventory, the pooled customer is immediately taken for service. At the time of a cancellation if the server is idle with none, one or more customers in the waiting room, then the head of the pooled customer go to the buffer directly for service. Also we assume that no customer joins the system when there is no item in the inventory. Several system performance measures are obtained. A cost function is discussed for each model and some numerical illustrations are presented. Finally a comparison of the two models are made.     

Optimal retailer's ordering policies in the EOQ model under trade credit financing

The main purpose of this note is to modify the assumption of the trade credit policy in previously published results to reflect the real-life situations. All previously published models implicitly assumed that the supplier would offer the retailer a delay period, but the retailer would not offer the trade credit period to his/her customer. In most business transactions, this assumption is debatable. In this note, we assume that the retailer also adopts the trade credit policy to stimulate his/her customer demand to develop the retailer's replenishment model. Furthermore, we assume that the retailer's trade credit period offered by supplier M is not shorter than the customer's trade credit period offered by retailer N(M?N). Under these conditions, we model the retailer's inventory system as a cost minimization problem to determine the retailer's optimal ordering policies. Then a theorem is developed to determine efficiently the optimal ordering policies for the retailer. We deduce some previously published results of other researchers as special cases. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the theorem obtained in this note.     

The Generalized <Emphasis Type="Italic">M/G/k</Emphasis> Blocking System with Heterogeneous Servers

This paper studies the equilibrium behaviour of the generalized M/G/k blocking system with heterogeneous servers. Such a service system has k servers, each with a (possibly) different service time distribution, whose customers arrive in accordance with a Poisson process. They are served, unless all the servers are occupied. In this case they leave and they do not return later (i.e. they are ‘blocked’). Whenever there are n (n = 0, 1, 2,..., k) servers occupied, each arriving customer balks with probability 1 - f _{n +1}(f _{k +1} = 0) and each server works at a rate g _n . Among other things, a generalization of the Erlang B-formula is given and also it is shown that the equilibrium departure process from the system is Poisson.     

Optimizing a Production System with a Fixed Delivery Schedule

This note considers a model in which a manufacturing company purchases a raw material, manufactures a product (at a finite rate) and ships a fixed quantity of the product to a single customer at fixed and regular intervals of time, as specified by the customer. In general there are several shipments made during each production run. The objective is to determine a purchasing and production schedule which minimises the total cost of purchasing, manufacturing and stockholding. It extends previously published work by considering the possibility that a single raw material purchase provides stock for several production runs or that several raw material purchases provide stock for a single production run.     

Predicting online-purchasing behaviour

This empirical study investigates the contribution of different types of predictors to the purchasing behaviour at an online store. We use logit modelling to predict whether or not a purchase is made during the next visit to the website using both forward and backward variable-selection techniques, as well as Furnival and Wilson's global score search algorithm to find the best subset of predictors. We contribute to the literature by using variables from four different categories in predicting online-purchasing behaviour: (1) general clickstream behaviour at the level of the visit, (2) more detailed clickstream information, (3) customer demographics, and (4) historical purchase behaviour. The results show that predictors from all four categories are retained in the final (best subset) solution indicating that clickstream behaviour is important when determining the tendency to buy. We clearly indicate the contribution in predictive power of variables that were never used before in online purchasing studies. Detailed clickstream variables are the most important ones in classifying customers according to their online purchase behaviour. Though our dataset is limited in size, we are able to highlight the advantage of e-commerce retailers of being able to capture an elaborate list of customer information.     

A queueing model for crowdsourcing

Crowdsourcing is getting popular after a number of industries such as food, consumer products, hotels, electronics, and other large retailers bought into this idea of serving customers. In this paper, we introduce a multi-server queueing model in the context of crowdsourcing. We assume that two types, say, Type 1 and Type 2, of customers arrive to a c-server queueing system. A Type 1 customer has to receive service by one of c servers while a Type 2 customer may be served by a Type 1 customer who is available to act as a server soon after getting a service or by one of c servers. We assume that a Type 1 customer will be available for serving a Type 2 customer (provided there is at least one Type 2 customer waiting in the queue at the time of the service completion of that Type 1 customer) with probability \(p, 0 \le p \le 1\). With probability \(q = 1 - p\), a Type 1 customer will opt out of serving a Type 2 customer provided there is at least one Type 2 customer waiting in the system. Upon completion of a service a free server will offer service to a Type 1 customer on an FCFS basis; however, if there are no Type 1 customers waiting in the system, the server will serve a Type 2 customer if there is one present in the queue. If a Type 1 customer decides to serve a Type 2 customer, for our analysis purposes that Type 2 customer will be removed from the system as Type 1 customer will leave the system with that Type 2 customer. Under the assumption of exponential services for both types of customers we study the model in steady state using matrix analytic methods and establish some results including explicit ones for the waiting time distributions. Some illustrative numerical examples are presented.     

Some related paradoxes of queuing theory: new cases and a unifying explanation

In this paper, we study a number of closely related paradoxes of queuing theory, each of which is based on the intuitive notion that the level of congestion in a queuing system should be directly related to the stochastic variability of the arrival process and the service times. In contrast to such an expectation, it has previously been shown that, in all H _k /G/1 queues, PW (the steady-state probability that a customer has to wait for service) decreases when the service-time becomes more variable. An analagous result has also been proved for p_loss (the steady-state probability that a customer is lost) in all H_k/G/1 loss systems. Such theoretical results can be seen, in this paper, to be part of a much broader scheme of paradoxical behaviour which covers a wide range of queuing systems. The main aim of this paper is to provide a unifying explanation for these kinds of behaviour. Using an analysis based on a simple, approximate model, we show that, for an arbitrary set of n GI/G_k/1 loss systems (k=1,..., n), if the interarrival-time distribution is fixed and ‘does not differ too greatly’ from the exponential distribution, and if the n systems are ordered in terms of their p_loss values, then the order that results whenever c_A<1 is the exact reverse of the order that results whenever c_A>1, where c_A is the coefficient of variation of the interarrival time. An important part of the analysis is the insensitivity of the p_loss value in an M/G/1 loss system to the choice of service-time distribution, for a given traffic intensity. The analysis is easily generalised to other queuing systems for which similar insensitivity results hold. Numerical results are presented for paradoxical behaviour of the following quantities in the steady state: p_loss in the GI/G/1 loss system; PW and W _q (the expected queuing time of customers) in the GI/G/1 queue; and p_K (the probability that all K machines are in the failed state) in the GI/G/r machine interference model. Two of these examples of paradoxical behaviour have not previously been reported in the literature. Additional cases are also discussed.     

Probability,Defectives and Mail Ordering

Probabilistic methods are applied to the problems facing the customer attempting to order items from a distributor where the probability of any item being faulty is a constant, q. The model involves only faulty items being returned by the customer in each round, and it is suggested that the situation being analysed is fairly general, conferming, for example, to that of the mail order customer exemplified by the record collector. Calculations are provided showing the extent of benefit from delaying purchase until a large order has accumulated.     

A Delay Dependent Queue without Pre-emption with General Linearly Increasing Priority Function

This paper considers the delay dependent priority queueing discipline with P non-preemptive priority classes. The priority at time t of a customer from the pth priority class, who arrives at time T_p, is given by q_p(t) = a _p + b _p (t - T _p ). The result has been derived for the expected waiting time of a customer from the pth priority class.     

Tocher's Principle of Modelling: Practical Significance and Mathematical Implications

This paper describes an important principle of modelling put forward by the late K. D. Tocher, namely that a clear distinction should be made between a system modelled and problems about the system. An example illustrates the many different practical problems one may be led to solve about a given economic system, e.g. an industrial firm. The example also shows that problems often result from the solutions to other problems, and thus cannot all be simultaneously anticipated. This suggests the need for a modelling system which, given a model of a system, may be used to solve any problem about the system.The overall problem can be described as that of solving an underdetermined system of equations. The precise meaning of the problem is defined for the case of sparse systems. Finally, the main features of a computer program based on Tocher's philosopy are outlined.     

Effects of Inspection Errors on Dorfman Screening Procedures with Random Group-Size: A Note on Kemp and Kemp's ‘Simple Inspection Scheme for Two Types of Defect’

Kemp and Kemp have proposed a scheme of inspection for two types (A and B) of non-conformity. There is serial inspection for type A, continuing until a sequence of k successive As is observed. These k items are discarded, and all previous items (since the last inspection for A) are subject to a Dorfman group-screening inspection procedure for B. We develop formulae for the properties of this scheme, when inspection (for both A and B) may not be perfect, allowing for both false negatives and false positives. Some numerical values given by the formulae are presented, with a view to assessing the robustness of Kemp and Kemp's scheme.     

Effects of Centralization on Expected Costs in a Multi-location Newsboy Problem

This is a single-period, single-product inventory model with several individual sources of demand. It is a multi-location problem with an opportunity for centralization. The holding and penalty cost functions at each location are assumed to be identical. Two types of inventory system are considered in this paper: the decentralized system and the centralized system. The decentralized system is a system in which a separate inventory is kept to satisfy the demand at each source of demand. The centralized system is a system in which all demands are satisfied from one central warehouse. This paper demonstrates that, for any probability distribution of a location's demands, the following properties are always true: given that the holding and penalty cost functions are identical at all locations, (1) if the holding and penalty cost functions are concave functions, then the expected holding and penalty costs in a decentralized system exceed those in a centralized system, except that (2) if the holding and penalty cost functions are linear functions, and for any i≠j, P_ij, the coefficient of correlation between the ith location's demand and the jth location's demand is equal to 1, then the expected holding and penalty costs in a decentralized system are equal to those in a centralized system.     

Flow-shop scheduling with a learning effect

The paper is devoted to some flow-shop scheduling problems with a learning effect. The objective is to minimize one of the two regular performance criteria, namely, makespan and total flowtime. A heuristic algorithm with worst-case bound m for each criteria is given, where m is the number of machines. Furthermore, a polynomial algorithm is proposed for both of the special cases: identical processing time on each machine and an increasing series of dominating machines. An example is also constructed to show that the classical Johnson's rule is not the optimal solution for the two-machine flow-shop scheduling to minimize makespan with a learning effect. Some extensions of the problem are also shown.     

An Improvement to Kamerud's Mortality-risk and Life-expectancy Model

Every life faces a certain age-specific mortality risk. Changing this mortality risk for a life aged A by a small quantity R, say, would change the life expectancy by R x K, where K is some constant. Kamerud has proposed a model for K which is independent of R. This note offers an improvement to Kamerud's model which depends on both A and R.     

A Graphical Aid for the Initial Purchase of ‘Insurance Type’ Spares

Expensive renewable spares known as ‘insurance type’ spares are often a major concern in the design and setting up of industrial, commercial and military systems. These spares, though low in demand, are critical to the system's operation and their unavailability can lead to excessive downtime costs. Due to their nature, the (S-1, S) inventory control model provides an appropriate replenishment policy for this class of items, where S is the maximum number of spares in inventory. A (S-1, S) model with Exponential distribution of failure-free operating time at each of a finite number of machines and Exponential distribution of re-supply lead-time is developed. A graphical aid is presented which, for a given number of machines, indicates the range of the ratio {mean lead-time/mean failure-free operating time} for which a minimum S is required in order to satisfy a service level constraint on the service measure Pr[a spare is available at a machine stoppage due to part failure].     

A comparison between the order and the volume fill rate for a base-stock inventory control system under a compound renewal demand process

The order fill rate (OFR) is sometimes suggested as an alternative to the volume fill rate (VFR) (most often just denoted fill rate) as a performance measure for inventory control systems. We consider a continuous review, base-stock policy, where replenishment orders have a constant lead time and unfilled demands are backordered. For this policy, we develop exact mathematical expressions for the two fill-rate measures when demand follows a compound renewal process. We also elaborate on when the OFR can be interpreted as the (extended) ready rate. For the case when customer orders are generated by a negative binomial distribution, we show that it is the size of the shape parameter of this distribution that determines the relative magnitude of the two fill rates. In particular, we show that when customer orders are generated by a geometric distribution, the OFR and the VFR are equal.     

On the Nitsche conjecture for harmonic mappings in ℝ<Superscript>2</Superscript> and ℝ<Superscript>3</Superscript>

We give the new inequality related to the J. C. C. Nitsche conjecture (see [6]). Moreover, we consider the two- and three-dimensional case. LetA(r, 1)={z:r<|z|<1}. Nitsche's conjecture states that if there exists a univalent harmonic mapping from an annulusA(r, 1), to an annulusA(s, 1), thens is at most 2r/(r ²+1).Lyzzaik's result states thats<t wheret is the length of the Grötzsch's ring domain associated withA(r, 1) (see [5]). Weitsman's result states thats≤1/(1+1/2(r logr)²) (see [8]).Our result for two-dimensional space states thats≤1/(1+1/2 log² r) which improves Weitsman's bound for allr, and Lyzzaik's bound forr close to 1. For three-dimensional space the result states thats≤1/(r?logr).     

On a periodic vehicle routing problem

This paper deals with a study on a variant of the Periodic Vehicle Routing Problem (PVRP). As in the traditional Vehicle Routing Problem, customer locations each with a certain daily demand are given, as well as a set of capacitated vehicles. In addition, the PVRP has a horizon, say T days, and there is a frequency for each customer stating how often within this T-day period this customer must be visited. A solution to the PVRP consists of T sets of routes that jointly satisfy the demand constraints and the frequency constraints. The objective is to minimize the sum of the costs of all routes over the planning horizon. We develop different algorithms solving the instances of the case studied. Using these algorithms we are able to realize considerable cost reductions compared to the current situation.