Global Dynamics of a Tuberculosis Epidemic Model and the Influence of Backward Bifurcation

In this paper, we propose and analyze a tuberculosis (TB) model with exogenous re-infection. We assume that treated individual may be again infected by infectious individual. The model exhibits two bifurcations viz. transcritical bifurcation when the basic reproductive number R ₀?=?1 and backward bifurcation where the disease transmission rate β plays as control parameter. The persistent of the model and, the local and global stability criteria of disease-free and endemic equilibria are discussed. By carrying out bifurcation analysis, it is shown that the model exhibits the bistability and undergoes the Hopf bifurcation when immunological memory is everlasting i.e. when σ?=?0. Lastly, some simulations are given to verify our analytical results.     

Qualitative analysis of a SIR epidemic model with saturated treatment rate

On account of the effect of limited treatment resources on the control of epidemic disease, a saturated removal rate is incorporated into Hethcote’s SIR epidemiological model (Hethcote, SIAM Rev. 42:599–653, 2000). Unlike the original model, the model has two endemic equilibria when R ₀<1. Furthermore, under some conditions, both the disease free equilibrium and one of the two endemic equilibria are asymptotically stable, i.e., the model has bistable equilibria. Therefore, disease eradication not only depends on R ₀ but also on the initial sizes of all sub-populations. By the Poincaré-Bendixson theorem, Poincaré index, center manifold theorem, Hopf bifurcation theorem and Lyapunov-Lasalle theorem, etc., the existence and asymptotical stability of the equilibria, the existence, stability and direction of Hopf bifurcation are discussed, respectively.     

Bifurcation continuation,chaos and chaos control in nonlinear Bloch system

A detailed analysis is undertaken to explore the stability and bifurcation pattern of the nonlinear Bloch equation known to govern the dynamics of an ensemble of spins, controlling the basic process of nuclear magnetic resonance. After the initial analysis of the parameter space and stability region identification, we utilize the MATCONT package to analyze the detailed bifurcation scenario as the two important physical parameters γ (the normalized gain) and c (the phase of the feedback field) are varied. A variety of patterns are revealed not studied ever before. Next we explore the structure of the chaotic attractor and how the identification of unstable periodic orbit (UPO) can be utilized to control the onset of chaos.     

Analysis and control of the bifurcation of Hodgkin–Huxley model

The Hodgkin–Huxley (HH) equations are parameterized by a number of parameters and show a variety of qualitatively different behaviors depending on the various parameters. This paper finds the bifurcation would occur when the leakage conductance g_l is lower than a special value. The Hopf bifurcation of HH model is controlled by applying a simple and unified state-feedback method and the bifurcation point is moved to an unreachable physiological point at the same time, so in this way an absolute bifurcation control is achieved. The simulation results demonstrate the validity of such theoretic analysis and control method. This new method could be a great help to the design of new closed-loop electrical stimulation systems for patients suffering from different nerve system dysfunctions.     

Hopf bifurcation and topological horseshoe of a novel finance chaotic system

This paper deals with the existence of both Hopf bifurcation and topological horseshoe for a novel finance chaotic system. First, through rigorous mathematical analysis, we show that a Hopf bifurcation occurs at systems’ three equilibriums S_0,1,2 and Hopf bifurcation at equilibrium S₀ is non-degenerate and supercritical. Second, the computer-assisted verifications for horseshoe chaos in the system are given. Simulation results are presented to support the analysis.     

Dynamical consequences of predator interference in a tri-trophic model food chain

A model food chain involving a specialist and a generalist predator is proposed and studied. One of the salient features of this model food chain is that it combines both the schemes (Volterra and Leslie) of modeling predator–prey interaction in one system in such a way that the demerits of these individual formulations are suppressed and the resulting model system represents a common unit of real world food webs. The stability analysis of the proposed model is carried out. The Hopf bifurcation conditions of the positive equilibrium point are established. Our numerical computations show that chaotic dynamics is sensitive to changes in values of parameters measuring attributes of either interacting populations or their environments. Two dimensional parameter scans suggest that the model food chain displays short-term recurrent chaos. This can be regarded as a plausible explanation for why it has been so difficult to detect deterministic chaos in natural populations.     

A new hyperchaotic system and its synchronization

In this paper, a four-dimensional (4D) continuous autonomous hyperchaotic system is introduced and analyzed. This hyperchaotic system is constructed by adding a linear controller to the 3D autonomous chaotic system with a reverse butterfly-shape attractor. Some of its basic dynamical properties, such as Lyapunov exponents, Poincare section, bifurcation diagram and the periodic orbits evolving into chaotic, hyperchaotic dynamical behavior by varying parameter d are studied. Furthermore, the full state hybrid projective synchronization (FSHPS) of new hyperchaotic system with unknown parameters including the unknown coefficients of nonlinear terms is studied by using adaptive control. Numerical simulations are presented to show the effective of the proposed chaos synchronization scheme.     

Complex dynamics and switching transients in periodically forced Filippov prey–predator system

By employing threshold policy control (TPC) in combination with the definition of integrated pest management (IPM), a Filippov prey–predator model with periodic forcing has been proposed and studied, and the periodic forcing is affected by assuming a periodic variation in the intrinsic growth rate of the prey. This study aims to address how the periodic forcing and TPC affect the pest control. To do this, the sliding mode dynamics and sliding mode domain have been addressed firstly by using Utkin’s equivalent control method, and then the existence and stability of sliding periodic solution are investigated. Furthermore, the complex dynamics including multiple attractors coexistence, period adding sequences and chaotic solutions with respect to bifurcation parameters of forcing amplitude and economic threshold (ET) have been investigated numerically in more detail. Finally the switching transients associated with pest outbreaks and their biological implications have been discussed. Our results indicate that the sliding periodic solution could be globally stable, and consequently the prey or pest population can be controlled such that its density falls below the economic injury level (EIL). Moreover, the switching transients have both advantages and disadvantages concerning pest control, and the magnitude and frequency of switching transients depend on the initial values of both populations, forcing amplitude and ET.     

Dynamical behavior of computer virus on Internet

In this paper, we presented a computer virus model using an SIRS model and the threshold value R₀ determining whether the disease dies out is obtained. If R₀ is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. By using the time delay as a bifurcation parameter, the local stability and Hopf bifurcation for the endemic state is investigated. Numerical results demonstrate that the system has periodic solution when time delay is larger than a critical values. The obtained results may provide some new insight to prevent the computer virus.     

Mathematical Analysis of West Nile Virus Model with Discrete Delays

The paper presents the basic model for the transmission dynamics of West Nile virus (WNV). The model, which consists of seven mutually-exclusive compartments representing the birds and vector dynamics, has a locally-asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number (?₀) is less than unity. As reveal in [3, 20], the analyses of the model show the existence of the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (where the stable disease-free equilibrium of the model co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the reproduction number of the disease is less than unity). It is shown, that the backward bifurcation phenomenon can be removed by substituting the associated standard incidence function with a mass action incidence. Analysis of the reproduction number of the model shows that, the disease will persist, whenever ?₀ > 1, and increase in the length of incubation period can help reduce WNV burden in the community if a certain threshold quantities, denoted by Δ_b and Δ_v are negative. On the other hand, increasing the length of the incubation period increases disease burden if Δ_b > 0 and Δ_v > 0. Furthermore, it is shown that adding time delay to the corresponding autonomous model with standard incidence (considered in [2]) does not alter the qualitative dynamics of the autonomous system (with respect to the elimination or persistence of the disease).     

Routes to chaos in continuous mechanical systems. Part 1: Mathematical models and solution methods

In this work chaotic dynamics of continuous mechanical systems such as flexible plates and shallow shells is studied. Namely, a wide class of the mentioned objects is analyzed including flexible plates and cylinder-like panels of infinite length, rectangular spherical and cylindrical shells, closed cylindrical shells, axially symmetric plates, as well as spherical and conical shells. The considered problems are solved by the Bubnov–Galerkin and higher approximation Ritz methods. Convergence and validation of those methods are studied. The Cauchy problems are solved mainly by the fourth Runge-Kutta method, although all variants of the Runge-Kutta methods are considered. New scenarios of transition from regular to chaotic orbits are detected, analyzed and discussed.First part of the paper is devoted to the validation of results obtained. This is why the same infinite length problem is reduced to that of a finite dimension through the FDM (Finite Difference Method) with the approximation order of O(c²), BGM (Bubnov–Galerkin Method) or RM (Ritz Method) with higher approximations. We pay attention not only to convergence of the mentioned methods regarding the number of partitions of the interval [0, 1] in the FDM or regarding the number of terms in the series applied either in the BGM or RM methods, but we also compare the results obtained via the mentioned different approaches. Furthermore, a so called practical convergence of different Runge-Kutta type methods are tested starting from the second and ending with the eighth order.Second part of the work is devoted to a study of routes to chaos in the so far mentioned mechanical objects. For this purpose the so-called “dynamical charts” are constructed versus control parameters {q₀, ω_p}, where q₀ denotes the loading amplitude, and ω_p is the loading frequency. The charts are constructed through analyses of frequency power spectra and the largest Lyapunov exponent (LE). Analysis of the mentioned charts indicates clearly that different routes to chaos exist and allow us to control the objects being investigated. In some cases we detect the classical Feigenbaum scenario and we compute also the Feigenbaum constant. This scenario accompanied all problems which we studied. In addition, we detect and illustrate novel scenarios of transition from regularity into chaos including the Ruelle–Takens–Newhouse–Feigenbaum scenario, and the so called modified Pomeau–Manneville scenario.Third part of the paper is devoted to analysis of the Lyapunov exponents. Namely, while investigating evolutions of vibration regimes of a shell associated with an increase of excitation amplitude q₀ phase transitions chaos–hyper chaos as well as chaos-hyper chaos–hyper–hyper chaos dynamics are illustrated and studied. Furthermore, for all investigated plates and shells the Sharkovskiy windows of periodicity are detected. In particular, a space-temporal chaos/turbulence is studied.     

Bifurcations analysis and tracking control of an epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate

In this paper, a discrete epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate obtained by the forward Euler method is investigated. The conditions for existence of codimension-1 bifurcations (fold bifurcation, flip bifurcation and Neimark-Sacker bifurcation) are derived by using the center manifold theorem and bifurcation theory. Furthermore, the condition for the occurrence of codimension-2 bifurcation (fold-flip bifurcation) is presented. In order to eliminate the chaos or Neimark-Sacker bifurcation of the discrete epidemic model, a tracking controller is designed. The number of the infectives tends to zero when the number of iterations is gradually increasing, that is, the disease disappears gradually. Finally, numerical simulations not only illustrate the validity of the proposed results, but also display the interesting and complex dynamical behaviors.     

Analysis and control of an SEIR epidemic system with nonlinear transmission rate

In this paper, the dynamical behaviors of an SEIR epidemic system governed by differential and algebraic equations with seasonal forcing in transmission rate are studied. The cases of only one varying parameter, two varying parameters and three varying parameters are considered to analyze the dynamical behaviors of the system. For the case of one varying parameter, the periodic, chaotic and hyperchaotic dynamical behaviors are investigated via the bifurcation diagrams, Lyapunov exponent spectrum diagram and Poincare section. For the cases of two and three varying parameters, a Lyapunov diagram is applied. A tracking controller is designed to eliminate the hyperchaotic dynamical behavior of the system, such that the disease gradually disappears. In particular, the stability and bifurcation of the system for the case which is the degree of seasonality β₁=0 are considered. Then taking isolation control, the aim of elimination of the disease can be reached. Finally, numerical simulations are given to illustrate the validity of the proposed results.     

On chaos, transient chaos and ghosts in single population models with Allee effects

Density-dependent effects, both positive or negative, can have an important impact on the population dynamics of species by modifying their population per-capita growth rates. An important type of such density-dependent factors is given by the so-called Allee effects, widely studied in theoretical and field population biology. In this study, we analyze two discrete single population models with overcompensating density-dependence and Allee effects due to predator saturation and mating limitation using symbolic dynamics theory. We focus on the scenarios of persistence and bistability, in which the species dynamics can be chaotic. For the chaotic regimes, we compute the topological entropy as well as the Lyapunov exponent under ecological key parameters and different initial conditions. We also provide co-dimension two bifurcation diagrams for both systems computing the periods of the orbits, also characterizing the period-ordering routes toward the boundary crisis responsible for species extinction via transient chaos. Our results show that the topological entropy increases as we approach to the parametric regions involving transient chaos, being maximum when the full shift R(L)^∞ occurs, and the system enters into the essential extinction regime. Finally, we characterize analytically, using a complex variable approach, and numerically the inverse square-root scaling law arising in the vicinity of a saddle-node bifurcation responsible for the extinction scenario in the two studied models. The results are discussed in the context of species fragility under differential Allee effects.     

Bifurcation of infinite Prandtl number rotating convection

We consider infinite Prandtl number convection with rotation which is the basic model in geophysical fluid dynamics. For the rotation free case, the rigorous analysis has been provided by Park (2005, 2007, revised for publication) [5], [6] and [25] under various boundary conditions. By thoroughly investigating we prove in this paper that the solutions bifurcate from the trivial solution u=0 to an attractor Σ_R which consists of only one cycle of steady state solutions and is homeomorphic to S¹. We also see how intensively the rotation inhibits the onset of convective motion. This bifurcation analysis is based on a new notion of bifurcation, called attractor bifurcation which was developed by Ma and Wang (2005); see [15].     

Spiking patterns of a minimal neuron to ELF sinusoidal electric field

Neuron as the main information carrier in neural systems is able to generate diverse spiking trains in response to different stimuli. Neuronal spiking patterns are related to the information processing in neural system. This paper investigates the dynamical behaviors of a two-dimensional minimal neuron model exposed to externally-applied extremely low frequency (ELF) sinusoidal electric field (EF). By numerical stimulation, it is found that neuron can exhibit different spiking patterns such as p:q mode-locking (i.e. a periodic oscillation defined as p action potentials generated by q cycle stimulations) and chaotic behaviors, depending on the values of stimulus frequencies. Transitions between different spiking patterns during exposure to the external EF are explored by interspike intervals (ISIs) and average firing rate. It is found that frequencies of the external EF can act as a bifurcation parameter, whose small change can cause the transition in neuronal behaviors. It is shown that a rich bifurcation structure including period-adding without chaos and mode-locking alternated with chaos suggests frequency discrimination of the neuronal firing patterns. Our results can provide a useful insight into the organization of similar bifurcation structures in excitable systems such as neurons under periodic forcing. Through detail analysis of the spiking patterns, we have explained how neuron’s information (spiking patterns) encodes the stimulus information (frequency), and vice versa.     

Characterization of chaotic attractors at bifurcations in Murali–Lakshmanan–Chua's circuit and one-way coupled map lattice system

In the present paper we study certain characteristic features associated with bifurcations of chaos in a finite dimensional dynamical system – Murali–Lakshmanan–Chua (MLC) circuit equation and an infinite dimensional dynamical system – one-way coupled map lattice (OCML) system. We characterize chaotic attractors at various bifurcations in terms of σ_n(q) – the variance of fluctuations of coarse-grained local expansion rates of nearby orbits. For all chaotic attractors the σ_n(q) versus q plot exhibits a peak at q=q_α. Additional peaks, however, are found only just before and just after the bifurcations of chaos. We show power-law variation of maximal Lyapunov exponent near intermittency and sudden widening bifurcations. Linear variation is observed for band-merging bifurcation. We characterize weak and strong chaos using probability distribution of k-step difference of a state variable.     

Dynamical analysis and control strategies on malware propagation model

A variable infection rate is more realistic to forecast dynamical behaviors of malware (malicious software) propagation. In this paper, we propose a time-delayed SIRS model by introducing temporal immunity and the variable infection rate. The basic reproductive number R₀ which determines whether malware dies out is obtained. Furthermore, using time delay as a bifurcation parameter, some necessary and sufficient conditions ensuring Hopf bifurcation to occur for this model are derived. Finally, numerical simulations verify the correctness of theoretical results. Most important of all, we investigate the effect of the variable infection rate on the scale of malware prevalence and compare our model with stationary analytical model by simulation. According to simulating results, some strategies that control malware rampant are given, which may be incorporated into cost-effective antivirus policies for organizations to work quite well in practice.