Semiparametric Bayesian measurement error modeling

This work presents a Bayesian semiparametric approach for dealing with regression models where the covariate is measured with error. Given that (1) the error normality assumption is very restrictive, and (2) assuming a specific elliptical distribution for errors (Student-t for example), may be somewhat presumptuous; there is need for more flexible methods, in terms of assuming only symmetry of errors (admitting unknown kurtosis). In this sense, the main advantage of this extended Bayesian approach is the possibility of considering generalizations of the elliptical family of models by using Dirichlet process priors in dependent and independent situations. Conditional posterior distributions are implemented, allowing the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to generate the posterior distributions. An interesting result shown is that the Dirichlet process prior is not updated in the case of the dependent elliptical model. Furthermore, an analysis of a real data set is reported to illustrate the usefulness of our approach, in dealing with outliers. Finally, semiparametric proposed models and parametric normal model are compared, graphically with the posterior distribution density of the coefficients.     

Bayesian inference for dependent elliptical measurement error models

In this article we provide a Bayesian analysis for dependent elliptical measurement error models considering nondifferential and differential errors. In both cases we compute posterior distributions for structural parameters by using squared radial prior distributions for the precision parameters. The main result is that the posterior distribution of location parameters, for specific priors, is invariant with respect to changes in the generator function, in agreement with previous results obtained in the literature under different assumptions. Finally, although the results obtained are valid for any elliptical distribution for the error term, we illustrate those results by using the student-t distribution and a real data set.     

Bayesian inference in spherical linear models: robustness and conjugate analysis

The early work of Zellner on the multivariate Student-t linear model has been extended to Bayesian inference for linear models with dependent non-normal error terms, particularly through various papers by Osiewalski, Steel and coworkers. This article provides a full Bayesian analysis for a spherical linear model. The density generator of the spherical distribution is here allowed to depend both on the precision parameter φ and on the regression coefficients β. Another distinctive aspect of this paper is that proper priors for the precision parameter are discussed.The normal-chi-squared family of prior distributions is extended to a new class, which allows the posterior analysis to be carried out analytically. On the other hand, a direct joint modelling of the data vector and of the parameters leads to conjugate distributions for the regression and the precision parameters, both individually and jointly. It is shown that some model specifications lead to Bayes estimators that do not depend on the choice of the density generator, in agreement with previous results obtained in the literature under different assumptions. Finally, the distribution theory developed to tackle the main problem is useful on its own right.     

Nonparametric tests of independence between random vectors

A nonparametric test of the mutual independence between many numerical random vectors is proposed. This test is based on a characterization of mutual independence defined from probabilities of half-spaces in a combinatorial formula of Möbius. As such, it is a natural generalization of tests of independence between univariate random variables using the empirical distribution function. If the number of vectors is p and there are n observations, the test is defined from a collection of processes R_n,A, where A is a subset of {1,…,p} of cardinality |A|>1, which are asymptotically independent and Gaussian. Without the assumption that each vector is one-dimensional with a continuous cumulative distribution function, any test of independence cannot be distribution free. The critical values of the proposed test are thus computed with the bootstrap which is shown to be consistent. Another similar test, with the same asymptotic properties, for the serial independence of a multivariate stationary sequence is also proposed. The proposed test works when some or all of the marginal distributions are singular with respect to Lebesgue measure. Moreover, in singular cases described in Section 4, the test inherits useful invariance properties from the general affine invariance property.     

The multivariate Behrens-Fisher distribution

The main purpose of this paper is the study of the multivariate Behrens-Fisher distribution. It is defined as the convolution of two independent multivariate Student t distributions. Some representations of this distribution as the mixture of known distributions are shown. An important result presented in the paper is the elliptical condition of this distribution in the special case of proportional scale matrices of the Student t distributions in the defining convolution. For the bivariate Behrens-Fisher problem, the authors propose a non-informative prior distribution leading to highest posterior density (H.P.D.) regions for the difference of the mean vectors whose coverage probability matches the frequentist coverage probability more accurately than that obtained using the independence-Jeffreys prior distribution, even with small samples.     

Characterization of the p-generalized normal distribution

It is a well known fact that invariance under the orthogonal group and marginal independence uniquely characterizes the isotropic normal distribution. Here, a similar characterization is provided for the more general class of differentiable bounded L_p-spherically symmetric distributions: Every factorial distribution in this class is necessarily p-generalized normal.     

Consistency of the generalized MLE of a joint distribution function with multivariate interval-censored data

Wong and Yu [Generalized MLE of a joint distribution function with multivariate interval-censored data, J. Multivariate Anal. 69 (1999) 155-166] discussed generalized maximum likelihood estimation of the joint distribution function of a multivariate random vector whose coordinates are subject to interval censoring. They established uniform consistency of the generalized MLE (GMLE) of the distribution function under the assumption that the random vector is independent of the censoring vector and that both of the vector distributions are discrete. We relax these assumptions and establish consistency results of the GMLE under a multivariate mixed case interval censorship model. van der Vaart and Wellner [Preservation theorems for Glivenko-Cantelli and uniform Glivenko-Cantelli class, in: E. Gine, D.M. Mason, J.A. Wellner (Eds.), High Dimensional Probability, vol. II, Birkhäuser, Boston, 2000, pp. 115-133] and Yu [Consistency of the generalized MLE with multivariate mixed case interval-censored data, Ph.D Dissertation, Binghamton University, 2000] independently proved strong consistency of the GMLE in the L₁(μ)-topology, where μ is a measure derived from the joint distribution of the censoring variables. We establish strong consistency of the GMLE in the topologies of weak convergence and pointwise convergence, and eventually uniform convergence under appropriate distributional assumptions and regularity conditions.     

The matrix-t distribution and its applications in predictive inference

The predictive distributions of the future responses and regression matrix under the multivariate elliptically contoured distributions are derived using structural approach. The predictive distributions are obtained as matrix-t which are identical to those obtained under matrix normal and matrix-t distributions. This gives inference robustness with respect to departures from the reference case of independent sampling from the matrix normal or dependent but uncorrelated sampling from matrix-t distributions. Some successful applications of matrix-t distribution in the field of spatial prediction have been addressed.     

Improving on the mle of a bounded location parameter for spherical distributions

For the problem of estimating under squared error loss the location parameter of a p-variate spherically symmetric distribution where the location parameter lies in a ball of radius m, a general sufficient condition for an estimator to dominate the maximum likelihood estimator is obtained. Dominance results are then made explicit for the case of a multivariate student distribution with d degrees of freedom and, in particular, we show that the Bayes estimator with respect to a uniform prior on the boundary of the parameter space dominates the maximum likelihood estimator whenever and d?p. The sufficient condition matches the one obtained by Marchand and Perron (Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 1078) in the normal case with identity covariance matrix. Furthermore, we derive an explicit class of estimators which, for , dominate the maximum likelihood estimator simultaneously for the normal distribution with identity covariance matrix and for all multivariate student distributions with d degrees of freedom, d?p. Finally, we obtain estimators which dominate the maximum likelihood estimator simultaneously for all distributions in the subclass of scale mixtures of normals for which the scaling random variable is bounded below by some positive constant with probability one.     

Two testing problems relating the real and complex multivariate normal distributions

The first problem considered is that of testing for the reality of the covariance matrix of a p-dimensional complex normal distribution, while the second is that of testing that a 2p-dimensional real normal distribution has a p-dimensional complex structure. Both problems are reduced by invariance to their maximal invariant statistics, and the null and non-null distributions of these are obtained. Complete classes of unbiased, invariant tests are described for both problems, the locally most powerful invariant tests are obtained, and the admissibility of the likelihood ratio tests is established.     

On the Student's t-distribution and the t-statistic

In this paper we provide rather weak conditions on a distribution which would guarantee that the t-statistic of a random vector of order n follows the t-distribution with n-1 degrees of freedom. The results sharpen the earlier conclusions of Mauldon [Characterizing properties of statistical distributions, Quart. J. Math. 2(7) (1956) 155-160] and the more recent advances due to Bondesson [When is the t-statistic t-distributed, Sankhyā, Ser. A 45 (1983) 338-345]. The basic tool involved in the derivations is the vertical density representation originally suggested by Troutt [A theorem on the density of the density ordinate and an alternative interpretation of the Box-Muller method, Statistics 22(3) (1991) 463-466; Vertical density representation and a further remark on the Box-Muller method, Statistics 24 (1993) 81-83]. Several illustrative examples are presented.     

Robust Bayesian prediction and estimation under a squared log error loss function

Robust Bayesian analysis is concerned with the problem of making decisions about some future observation or an unknown parameter, when the prior distribution belongs to a class Γ instead of being specified exactly. In this paper, the problem of robust Bayesian prediction and estimation under a squared log error loss function is considered. We find the posterior regret Γ-minimax predictor and estimator in a general class of distributions. Furthermore, we construct the conditional Γ-minimax, most stable and least sensitive prediction and estimation in a gamma model. A prequential analysis is carried out by using a simulation study to compare these predictors.     

Some results concerning maximum Rényi entropy distributions

We consider the Student-t and Student-r distributions, which maximise Rényi entropy under a covariance condition. We show that they have information-theoretic properties which mirror those of the Gaussian distributions, which maximise Shannon entropy under the same condition. We introduce a convolution which preserves the Rényi maximising family, and show that the Rényi maximisers are the case of equality in a version of the Entropy Power Inequality. Further, we show that the Rényi maximisers satisfy a version of the heat equation, motivating the definition of a generalised Fisher information.     

Grouped Dirichlet distribution: A new tool for incomplete categorical data analysis

Motivated by the likelihood functions of several incomplete categorical data, this article introduces a new family of distributions, grouped Dirichlet distributions (GDD), which includes the classical Dirichlet distribution (DD) as a special case. First, we develop distribution theory for the GDD in its own right. Second, we use this expanded family as a new tool for statistical analysis of incomplete categorical data. Starting with a GDD with two partitions, we derive its stochastic representation that provides a simple procedure for simulation. Other properties such as mixed moments, mode, marginal and conditional distributions are also derived. The general GDD with more than two partitions is considered in a parallel manner. Three data sets from a case-control study, a leprosy survey, and a neurological study are used to illustrate how the GDD can be used as a new tool for analyzing incomplete categorical data. Our approach based on GDD has at least two advantages over the commonly used approach based on the DD in both frequentist and conjugate Bayesian inference: (a) in some cases, both the maximum likelihood and Bayes estimates have closed-form expressions in the new approach, but not so when they are based on the commonly-used approach; and (b) even if a closed-form solution is not available, the EM and data augmentation algorithms in the new approach converge much faster than in the commonly-used approach.     

A characterization of the Behrens—Fisher distribution with applications to Bayesian inference

The Behrens-Fisher distribution is generally defined as the convolution of two Student t distributions and it is well known that it can be represented as a scale mixture of normals. By extending this standardized distribution to a location-scale family in the usual way we prove that this generalised Behrens-Fisher distribution can also be represented as a location mixture of t distributions when the mixing distribution is, in turn, a Student t. This characterization is applied to the computation of certain predictive distributions appearing in the Bayesian analysis of two sample problems.     

Canonical representation of conditionally specified multivariate discrete distributions

Most work on conditionally specified distributions has focused on approaches that operate on the probability space, and the constraints on the probability space often make the study of their properties challenging. We propose decomposing both the joint and conditional discrete distributions into characterizing sets of canonical interactions, and we prove that certain interactions of a joint distribution are shared with its conditional distributions. This invariance opens the door for checking the compatibility between conditional distributions involving the same set of variables. We formulate necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of discrete conditional models, and we show how a joint distribution can be easily computed from the pool of interactions collected from the conditional distributions. Hence, the methods can be used to calculate the exact distribution of a Gibbs sampler. Furthermore, issues such as how near compatibility can be reconciled are also discussed. Using mixed parametrization, we show that the proposed approach is based on the canonical parameters, while the conventional approaches are based on the mean parameters. Our advantage is partly due to the invariance that holds only for the canonical parameters.     

Statistical theory of shape under elliptical models and singular value decompositions

The size-and-shape and shape distributions based on non-central and non-isotropic elliptical distributions are derived in this paper by using the singular value decomposition (SVD). The general densities require the computation of new integrals involving zonal polynomials. The invariance of the central shape distribution is also proved. Finally, some particular densities are applied in a classical data of Biology, and the inference based on exact distributions is performed after choosing the best model by using a modified BIC^∗ criterion.     

Estimating the mean function of a Gaussian process and the Stein effect

The problem of global estimation of the mean function θ(·) of a quite arbitrary Gaussian process is considered. The loss function in estimating θ by a function a(·) is assumed to be of the form L(θ, a) = ∫ [θ(t) ? a(t)]²μ(dt), and estimators are evaluated in terms of their risk function (expected loss). The usual minimax estimator of θ is shown to be inadmissible via the Stein phenomenon; in estimating the function θ we are trying to simultaneously estimate a larger number of normal means. Estimators improving upon the usual minimax estimator are constructed, including an estimator which allows the incorporation of prior information about θ. The analysis is carried out by using a version of the Karhunen-Loéve expansion to represent the original problem as the problem of estimating a countably infinite sequence of means from independent normal distributions.     

Near-exact distributions for the independence and sphericity likelihood ratio test statistics

In this paper we show how, based on a decomposition of the likelihood ratio test for sphericity into two independent tests and a suitably developed decomposition of the characteristic function of the logarithm of the likelihood ratio test statistic to test independence in a set of variates, we may obtain extremely well-fitting near-exact distributions for both test statistics. Since both test statistics have the distribution of the product of independent Beta random variables, it is possible to obtain near-exact distributions for both statistics in the form of Generalized Near-Integer Gamma distributions or mixtures of these distributions. For the independence test statistic, numerical studies and comparisons with asymptotic distributions proposed by other authors show the extremely high accuracy of the near-exact distributions developed as approximations to the exact distribution. Concerning the sphericity test statistic, comparisons with formerly developed near-exact distributions show the advantages of these new near-exact distributions.     

Characteristic functions of scale mixtures of multivariate skew-normal distributions

We obtain the characteristic function of scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions both in the univariate and multivariate cases. The derivation uses the simple stochastic relationship between skew-normal distributions and scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions. In particular, we describe the characteristic function of skew-normal, skew-t, and other related distributions.